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 Originally Posted by Donachello
I think this is actually a spot where we aren't necessarily super happy to get stacks in. Keeping in mind it's a 3bet pot, his fishy stats, check on the flop and small bet on the turn despite two flush draws on the board it seems like we are looking at a pretty polarized range. That range is essentially hands that we lose to KK, JJ, hands we beat that have equity: weirdly played AA and AK (maybe QQ?), and bluffs (who knows how many). Sure if you look strictly at combos we have more combos that we beat in that range but that also assumes that this fish doesn't bet AA or AK on the flop ever which is probably unlikely at best.
I think you basically have to c/c both streets unless you could miraculously find a hero fold on the river if it is a really bad card.
I disagree with this as I see fish in these games almost always checking the flop with AK/AA then betting about this size on turn, so when I advocated raising the turn it was because I was weighting his range towards just that and over half the deck on the river kills our action vs that range. They could however take the same line with KK/JJ though. I think the delay cbet here is almost never a bluff (possibly a semi-bulff with AQ) so we are basically looking at top pair + on the turn.
I agree raising is bad vs most players but I felt like it would be ideal vs this specific player assuming he plays AA/AK like this nearly always, though it may be a false assumption, and we can't exclude KK/JJ from his range so I think this would lead towards calling and re-evaluating the river a better option as nutsinho stated.
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