just a quick point to make,
we're not risking 2.83 to win 7.39. We're risking 2.83 to win 2.28(2$ after rake).
With that said, lets assume villains range for shoving river is 22,AK,AQ,AJ
22=1combo
AK=3combos
AQ=3combos
AJ=4combos
We lose 2.83 4/11 times. We win 2$ 7/11 times.
-1.03 + 1.27 = .24cents profit on average.
A lot of you guys said this was a snap. I don't know why you'd consider this a snap. Would you consider this a snap at 3.50? I'm assuming almost ALL of you would. However @ 3.50 this becomes a fold.(It becomes a fold before this because of rake etc but I was too lazy to account for that).
Another quick point, if this villain is positionally aware AT ALL. This becomes a fold just because he's less likely to open all 16 combos of AJ because he's a 17/9. He also doesn't have 22 probably but this won't change much when you take out 4 of the combos you are chopping with. It's very likely this could be the case here thus making this a fold. I know it's cool to post "snap" or omg what's the decision here but a lot of you would actually be better off putting a thought or two into a "simple" spot like this because I can almost guarantee if the OP mentioned villain was positionally aware or if our stacks were even 4$ deep you'd all still say snap.
That said, in spots like this where you know you are chopping or losing you have to be careful to not miscalculate your pot odds. Your pot odds here are <1;1 but if you could only win or lose they would be nearly 3;1. That's pretty significant.
Oh and for people who think villain sometimes has worst. He absolutely NEVER, EVER, EVER has worst. EVER
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet
