Flopped straight vs river shove 25nl

[chatzilla]

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Virmos ($13)
UTG+1 Pejca ($20.52) 25/19 over 16 hands
MP1 Burbulacus ($28.65)
MP2 Undertake ($39.56) 15/8 over 50 hands. plays pretty fit or fold
MP3 Duri78 ($28.39)
CO TonnaMunz ($25)
BTN ChequeRa1der ($24.75)
SB KillingAce ($29.60)
BB jhart1358 ($27.22)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 9 players) TonnaMunz is CO
1 fold, Pejca raises to $1, 1 fold, Undertake calls $1, 1 fold, TonnaMunz calls $1, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.35, 3 players)
Pejca checks, Undertake checks, TonnaMunz bets $2, Pejca calls $2, Undertake calls $2

Probably could of bet a bit larger to get value from JJ-88 and AT and A8s probably peels as well for OR

Mp2 prob calls with pp's and some draws AJ KJ QJ JTs

Turn: ($9.35, 3 players)
Pejca checks, Undertake checks, TonnaMunz bets $6.50, Pejca calls $6.50, Undertake folds

Pretty horrible card for us. its checked down so I think bet/fold 2/3 is alright to get value from JJ, AT and A8s and we can just fold when boats raise us.

River: ($22.35, 2 players)
Pejca goes all-in $11.02,

river is a blank and villain snap jams

I think he could be doing 3 things here.

1. Value betting with his turned boats.
2. Getting it in relived a higher card didn't fall AT, JJ
3. Shipping a missed a AJ KJ draw and is 'bluffing'

Are 2 and 3 real or am i way to optimistic lol we need 25% equity to call

if villains range is TT-88,A8s,QJs,76s,QJo which we have 12.5% equity against


if we add JJ, ATs?

we would have 34% against JJ-88,ATs,A8s,QJs,76s,QJo

and if we add AJs and KJs we have 46% vs JJ-88,AJs-ATs,A8s,KJs,QJs,76s,QJo

Even if he does 2 and 3 a small % of the time i think it would be EV+ if not pretty close. I dunno i just feel like I played this really badly. Is my logic ok or way off? FPS?

[!Luck]

Getting 3:1. This is almost never a bluff but would he think that A8 k8 are
Nutz here?

[chatzilla]

i certainly hope so :P Do you think K8s seem a little weak for his range pre tho?

[LkySlevinsNo1Fan]

kinds gross, can't see a set flatting this flop though, so that puts us in better shape imo

[Roid_Rage]

Lol Luck, he's not opening K8 pre, not even K8s that early.

I'm not folding.

[Roid_Rage]

88+, 78s, 89s, 9Ts, TJs-ATs, ATo, 67s, QJs

Vs this range we have 78% equity lol, why are you ever considering folding?

I'm not sure why you can't put all overpairs in villains range here since that's a fairly scary flop from his perspective and its completely reasonable for him to c/c twice and then try to get value from your Tx, 9T, etc. Plus he might be thinking you lead like 78, TJ, etc.

This is a snapcall ainec.

[Openside]

This is a snapcall ainec.

Damn you and your acronyms; ainec?

[daviddem]

ainec = and it's not even close... tried to add it to the urban dictionary a while ago and it got deleted later, not sure why.

Far more quads, full house and better straights than trips, two pairs or same straight in his river shoving range imo (count combos).

[Roid_Rage]

88+, 78s, 89s, 9Ts, TJs-ATs, ATo, 67s, QJs
89T82

67s = 3 combos
78s = 2 combos
89s = 2 combos
9Ts = 2 combos
QJs = 4 combos
88 = 1 combo
99/TT = 6 combos
JJ-AA = 24 combos
TJs, QTs, KTs, ATs = 12 combos (you can remove some of these if you like)
ATo = 12 combos

Total combos = 67
Combos that beat us = 6 (99/TT), 1 (88), 4 (QJs), 2 (89s)= 13 combos

I'm pretty bad at math, but something tells me that 13/67 = snapcall.

[daviddem]

67s = 3 combos - tie
78s = 1 combo - win
89s = 1 combo - loose
9Ts = 2 combos - win (this one is probably not in his range)
QJs = 4 combos - loose
88 = 1 combo - loose
99/TT = 6 combos - loose (arguable whether he plays a flop set like this, so these could be removed)
I think he never plays top pair/overpair like this so:
JJ-AA = 0 combos
TJs, QTs, KTs, ATs = 0 combos
ATo = 0 combos

So without flopped sets, it's 6 looses vs 3 wins and much worse with flopped sets. So if he never has a set, it's still a call. But seriously with this line I'd weight more in favor of his nutty hands (why the hell would he do that with 9Ts wtf, when he is crushed by any overpair holecards) . I'd say a FH or nut straight is the most likely hand, unless he is capable of bluffing or spazzing completely in this spot.

[Roid_Rage]

Like I said, I'll give you the TP hands like TJs-ATs, and hell I'll even take out JJ/QQ and T9s.

That still leaves:

12 combos of AA/KK which is huge considering the # of combos we're working with and it makes this a call. I don't see why you don't think he'd never do this with an overpair..? That flop is atrocious for his hand and it's completely reasonable for him to try to pot control it here and when he hits two pair on the turn its fucking money in the bank in his eyes.

Stop being unreasonable please and see that his range can be a lot wider than the nuts here.

[rpm]

i'm with dranger. never folding here. i wouldn't be surprised if he has all of JJ+ (the turn card is a good one for this range. it reduces possible flopped set/two pair combos, and JJ+ now beats T9), not to mention T9s, ATs, ATo, maybe some bricked draws such as AJ/KJ, which seem pretty likely given his C/C, C/C, donk-jam river line on such a wet board. his range has to be ridiculously tight for us not to have 25%.

if this were a reg i could see a fold, because they woud likely know that chatzilla is a nit. and regs typically play OK. but it's some random 80bb stack at 25nl.

[rpm]

Far more quads, full house and better straights than trips, two pairs or same straight in his river shoving range imo (count combos).

88 (1), 99 (3), TT (3), QJs (4), 98s (1)

that's 12 combos, and the maximum amount i can think of in his preflop range that beat us on the river. getting 3:1 we need 25% equity. or put another way, we need to win 1/4. put another way we need him to have 4 or more combos we beat if the maximum # of combos we can think that beat us in his range is 12. take your pick from

JJ (6), QQ (6), KK (6), AA (6) T9s (2), AT (12), KTs (3), QTs (3), JTs (3), AJ (16), KJ (16)

granted some of these may not be in his range. but i definitely think some would. imo his line makes more sense for these weak-ish one pair hands and/or bluffs than nut hands. for example why would he C/C any of 88-TT on this flop when there are so many OESD's, pair/OESD's, and two-pair hands? some of which have decent equity against him? why would he C/C QJs on this turn? i think those "nut" combos should be discounted to at least some degree due to the wetness of the board texture and their resultant vulnerability

[Roid_Rage]

Bah, ty rpm was going to mention something similar.

Daviddem, I'll even use your '6 combos we lose to, 3 combos we beat' range that you posted above:

6:3 = 3/9 = 33% we have vs this range.

So we need to be getting 2:1 on our money or better, since he shoved for 1/2 pot, we're already getting more than enough pot odds with this seriously hamstrung range you posted.

We need 11.02/(33.37 + 11.02) = 24.8% is how much equity we need to have in order to call this river shove in order to breakeven.

Lets do a quick EV calc to see how much calling here is netting us in EV:

67% of the time we call and lose $11.02 = .67*11.02 = $7.38
33% of the time we call and win $44.39 = .33*44.39 = $14.67

$14.67 - $7.38 = $7.29 you would be missing out on PER CALL with the range you posted.

With me or rpm's range, this is only going to increase.

So when you say you want to fold here, you're basically just taking (at least) 29bb's and handing it to your opponent saying you don't want it.

I'm not trying to make you feel bad here or anything by rubbing your nose in it, I'm trying to help you see the error of your thinking. Yes, given your range, villain has us crushed here 2:1, but given the pot odds and the fact that we close the action this absolutely has to be a snapcall because thats the worst case scenario and I'm convinced that we have much much better equity than 33% here.

[chatzilla]

because they would likely know that chatzilla is a nit

lol d00d I've been running 14.8/11.6 over the last 5k hands :P

[daviddem]

OK thanks for the demo, I don't have too much problems with the math in general. I said myself in my post above that with 6 wins and 3 losses it's indeed a call. If you remove the T9s combos, it's not anymore (after rake).

The reason I am saying it may be worse than that is first that of all these SC's, QJs is more likely than the others to be in his UTG+1 opening range. Also I still don't get why you really want him to have overpairs or top pair here. I mean if you were him, would you not bet your top pair, overpair or set on this flop (I would, but maybe I am wrong)? Would you play it like the nuts on the river instead of checking and hoping for a cheap showdown? If you had a straight, would it not be reasonable to check the turn after the board pairs, hoping a guy with turned trips, top pair or an overpair will bet or someone will bluff a draw? Would you not then shove the river, because you're never folding anyway and you don't want your opp to check behind with worse?

I am not saying that the river is an obvious fold. Probably you're right and it's a call because it doesn't take much spazz at all to make it so, and also overpairs are very much in his preflop range. But it's definitely not a "snap call" to me.

[bigspenda73]

let's start with betting bigger on the flop, either we're against hands which have decent equity against us sets/pr+sd's or we're against hands that won't put much more money in the pot on scare cards (AT, KK+, etc...)

have to ask yourself

a. what possible bluffs could a player at 25nl have here?
b. are they even capable of pulling this off with like QJ?