910 IP 4-handed 10nl

[daviddem]

Stove tells us we have 45% equity in this pot, and the pot is saying we only need
0.8/(0.45+0.3+1.10+0.8) = 30% equity, not taking into account the implied odds when we hit our 4-outer or even make trip 10s (obviously less likely).

Be careful when you make these calcs: when you compare your pot odds and equity, it's all-in showdown equity (when there will be no further betting and you get to see the next two cards for that price). However here, you would call the $0.8 only to see the next card.

Also not too sure about your range. If you give him naked guthsots like 43o, surely you should give him many more flush draws. Plus if he is 14/12, he will do that mostly with draws to the nuts.

I'm one of the nittier in the BC, but I fold this. Not enough equity, and likely to get into sticky goo in a big pot on further streets.

[lombracremisi]

Be careful when you make these calcs: when you compare your pot odds and equity, it's all-in showdown equity (when there will be no further betting and you get to see the next two cards for that price). However here, you would call the $0.8 only to see the next card.

I guess I either forgot or just didn't know this. So when we're figuring out pot odds and our equity to call, are we just going to try to count our outs and make a calculation from that? Saying in this case that we have 3 8's (since one completes the flush, bad for us) and counting like 2 tens, since they're somewhat muddled outs giving us 5 for the turn and an approximately 11% chance to hit on the turn?

[daviddem]

I guess I either forgot or just didn't know this. So when we're figuring out pot odds and our equity to call, are we just going to try to count our outs and make a calculation from that? Saying in this case that we have 3 8's (since one completes the flush, bad for us) and counting like 2 tens, since they're somewhat muddled outs giving us 5 for the turn and an approximately 11% chance to hit on the turn?

Yes count your outs, estimate your chance of hitting on the next card, estimate how often he is going to bet the turn, estimate your implied odds when you hit... basically make an educated guess. Precisely analyzing all the scenarios over the next two streets is simply impossible.