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I really don't have much experience in poker. I don't know if assuming a 50% BU open is high or low. I don't know if assuming he folds to my 3bs more or less than i posted. Thats why i posted so experienced players like you could make posts like this to let me know where my assumptions are off base.
On the RPS note if we notice villain plays a little to much rock shouldn't we play play paper the next time? Sure he can adjust after that time, but we have a small advantage this next toss, and we should exploit it 100% of the time. This is not to say we should throw paper again after this time, but instead we should just take this edge now while its here.
Carrying over to the hand I understand now that this 3b was too marginal and we should wait till we have a higher part of our folding range.
@razvan I'm sure you are far better at poker than me. i know i have leaks and thats why im posting i appreciate you talking over the hand with me, but at the same time I don't think you should ignore the fact that your logic about my -ev postflop equity and him adjusting to this spot in a vacuum when in a vacuum players can't adjust because its the same spot are leaks in your thought process. I may be a worse player, but that doesn't mean i can't be right about this.
 Originally Posted by oskar
You say you don't have much history, but you assume that he opens 50% and folds 80%+ to your 3b?
Even if that were the case, it's still not right to 3b 100%, or even 75%, because it opens a huge and super obvious leak on your side.
It's the equivalent of noticing that your opponent plays a little too much rock in RPS, and you adjust by only playing paper.
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