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 Originally Posted by unclesteve
imo preflop his range is all the broadways, lots of PPs, all Ax hands, some connected hands, prolly like 67o+, all the SCs, some suited one gappers, prolly 57s+ or so.
This range doesn't hit the board texture as hard as you think, and it's a pretty small % of this range that'll call down and get to the river.
And I think I very rarely get to showdown, so I' m not really concerned about my own equity. If I hit an over, like I did in this hand, I'll be pretty happy about it, but otherwise I' m just tring to make him fold.
you range is bolded.... on flop your equity UP TO RIVER ( that means no more betting on turn and still is -EV when you bet 1/2 pot flop ) vs that is 35% and he is folding none and you have no fold equity on flop since you said he is calling all and its normal to call all cause he is a fcking fish so flop bet is wrong.
on turn vs the same range you drop to 20% equity and you have about 25% fold equity which is not enough since you bet again 1/2 pot ( that means he needs to fold 33% just to brake even) and vs his calling range on turn your equity drops to fcking 13% so even when you stack him you dont have not even a brake even play, not to mention making profit!
if after all math with YOUR RANGE you cant see that this is -EV or 0EV in the best case, then i have nothing more to add.... there is no way you will ever make money in this spot playing like this.
P.S.: i really am curious, if you are so sure that this is a +EV play, why the hell is the thread here? cause is you know , you are sure, you made a +EV play, this thread is equal to asking if its ok to shove AA pre!
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