Shove river?

[PKKFW]

Over all I'm happy with how I played the hand. The table was playing pretty tight and I'm trying to loosen up a little so thought this might be a good spot.

Villain is 12/6, call open 5%, fold to cbet is 80% agg freq is 27% on flop and 21% on turn sample 552 hands. Seems solid and has a win rate of 21bb/100 over those 552 hands. I have seen him raise with top set, c/r flop with a straight and call down with TPTK on a dry board.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($10)
SB ($9.05)
BB ($5.74)
UTG ($8.35)
Hero (UTG+1) ($10)
MP1 ($7.18)
MP2 ($8.16)
CO ($10.42)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, 4
1 fold, Hero bets $0.35, 5 folds, BB calls $0.25

So possibly a little too loose but I figured A4s gives me some straight and flush possibilities so might be good to see a flop with.

I put villain on 22-JJ, AQs+, AK. I discount QQ-AA as I think he would 3bet those and I don't think he'd be calling oop with less than AQs to an UTG+1 raise.

Flop: ($0.75) 6, 9, 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40

NFD and villain checks I figure this is a good time for a cbet.

After his call I put him on TT-JJ and maybe floating the flop with AK or 77 figuring the flop didn't hit me. I discount 22-55 as I think he would have folded here and I discount sets as I think he would have raised.

Turn: ($1.55) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.90, BB calls $0.90

Is the double barrel here good? I figure he will definitely fold any AK or AQs+ as he still hasn't hit and definitely doesn't have any kind of draw. TT-JJ or 77 may still call and if I don't improve on the river I plan on checking it back.

River: ($3.35) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero raises to $4.09, BB calls $3.09 (All-In)

Total pot: $11.53 | Rake: $0.56

So here's my main question........

As soon as he bet the river my gut reaction and first thought was fuck he could have a boat, I should just call.

Then I thought through the hand and figured he surely would have been raising with a set before now or possibly my read was wrong and he could have JT-KQ diamonds and have a lower flush.

So is the river shove good?

[scott_owen]

he might have a boat.. but its not in your range for him, before he calls the river I honestly think the most likely hand is something like TT/JJ or KdQd.. he either made the flush and is throwing out a small value bet or is trying to rep it while holding a pp because he realises his play looks like a draw.. someone with those stats shouldnt be stupid enough to not raise 66/88/99.. he's also short stacked so you're certainly not burning a mountain of money if he's taken a weird line.

part of me assumes he had a boat though because i dont think you'd be asking if he showed up some junk. Consider how often his line is a boat vs anything else.. the shove is +ev if he's behind >50% of the time, not all the time.

and worse flushes are going to call.. and shortstacks with over pairs are probably going to call too. its $3 into $7..

People playing this nitty are kinda looking to make money of premiums like JJ+ they dont let go of them too easily.

I think you could be a bit stronger on the flop.. you price in alot of drawy hands and the idea is to make use of your fold equity and actual equity in a decent sized pot when you've got a draw like that.. at least that's how i see it..

[Shotglass]

So possibly a little too loose but I figured A4s gives me some straight and flush possibilities so might be good to see a flop with.

This is true if you're in later position. But, IMO A4s is WAY too loose from UTG+1.

[Hoopy]

Too loose an open at FR imo. Just steal loads from SB/BTN/CO if you have nits on your left.

Flop cbet is fine to take him off 22-55 and AQ/AK.

Turn we need to put him on a range. You said he's raised with top set and c/r'd flop with a straight so this discounts almost all his sets on a board this draw heavy. He calls flop with 77/TT/JJ/QQ and probably KdQd if he has it, unlikely to have anything else since he folds 80% to cbets. Looking at his range none of that is going to fold to this turn bet since it's not a scare card (5/7/T/A/K, best one is a 5) + ok pot odds.

Leading river for $1 is usually a blocking bet with an over pair and very rarely a flush, shove is +EV.

[rpm]

preflop open is too loose with what i'll assume your current postflop skill level is. betting flop is standard. i honestly can't see anything which C/C's flop folding the turn, so i probably prefer checking it back. as played on the river, i think we have enough equity against his calling range to jam it in.

Board: 8d 6d 9c 3s 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.636% 63.64% 00.00% 7 0.00 { Ad4d }
Hand 1: 36.364% 36.36% 00.00% 4 0.00 { 9d9s, 9h9s, 8h8s, 6h6s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, JdTd, Td9d, 98s }

the above gives him 1/2 of the possible set combos (discounted due to the fact we have seen him C/R sets on flop + the flop texture is "scary" for 10nl fish with a hand), flushes KJdd+,QJdd,JdTd,Td9d, and 98s.

edit: forgot hands like TT-QQ, which could well still be in there, and obviously increase the EV of jamming because we beat them.

[PKKFW]

So general consensus is....

1: A4 is too loose from early position. I agree and will be trying hands like that from later positions in future.
2: Checking turn is better as it's not a scare card and pretty much anything that calls flop will probably call turn. Totally agree here and leak buster already tells me I double barrel too much! Grrr for making the same mistake again! lol
3: Shove on river is +EV against his expected range. I figured it was and am glad I didn't make a mistake there.

I think it obvious to everyone from my main question and the way it is asked that he showed up with a boat. Pocket 6's for bottom set on the flop. I can only assume he didn't raise as I had seen him do in the past because it was bottom set and not top. Still a weird line I think and I made a note to that effect.

Thanks for everyones thoughts.

[rpm]

just for the drunken record, i don't think betting the turn is completely terrible. and this is one of the best "non-made" hands you could do it with (obviously Ad7d,Ad5d and AdTd will be better due to more ways to improve when called, but you get the point). i just think, on the turn, we depend too much on our pot equity (because this turn card basically doesn't change his calling range at all - meaning little or no fold equity), which is probably only about 25% as a guess. if i felt he were folding even 1/3 of the time or more i'd definitely prefer betting the turn.

[d0zer]

I bet turn. We don't have tons of FE, but we rly don't need much.