kqs on fd, turn nuts

[Zorkion]

Cake - $0.04 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $8.18
SB: $4.93
BB: $1.51
UTG: $5.04
UTG+1: $2.26
MP: $1.35
Hero (MP+1): $11.30
LP: $3.90
CO: $1.20

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has Q K

fold, UTG+1 calls $0.04, fold, Hero raises to $0.20, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.20, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.16

Flop: ($0.66, 3 players) 4 2 6
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.41, BTN raises to $1.15, fold, Hero calls $0.74

Turn: ($2.96, 2 players) A
[color=red]Hero ?????

bu: 13/9
utg+1: 26/5

pre: whatever
flop: fd with overs, good equity. cbet, bu raises, im thinking 22, 44, 66+, and ive got good equity to call, good implied odds. turn: woo nuts. now what to do with it.

thoughts?

[baudib]

donk the turn, not even close. The number of hands he'll call with outnumber the hands he'll bet himself by like infinity.

[Zorkion]

sizing?

[JKDS]

thoughts on flop? Cbet is obv, im torn on responding to the raise. Calling just seems so...meh to me. I like $2 once we get there on the turn, leaves a nice 5 into 7 river shove without completely folding out his weaker holdings

[rpm]

lead $2.2 i think.

[supa]

Torn on flop. Do we only need to be good here like 25%? Math head not working yet. If so I think call is fine.

Dunno if I agree with leading turn even tho it's prolly totally standard.

[DonkWannabe]

A call is fine but I'd assume they have a set or a lower flush draw, if board pairs you could end up behind and if another spade arrives it will prob dry up the action! I agree with rpm, $2.20 and if they raise get it all in!

[OngBonga]

donk the turn, not even close.

This.

[Zorkion]

yesss, i was rather convinced of donking the turn, it was more just a question of sizing

[baudib]

Are we ever bluffing when we bet $2.20 on this turn? Does it matter?

[rpm]

no we probably aren't given described reads and ranges, and no it doesn't matter that we aren't imo.

[gingerwizard]

no we probably aren't given described reads and ranges, and no it doesn't matter that we aren't imo.

If we're never bluffing here and he knows that, what does he call with?

[OngBonga]

My turn bet sizing depends greatly on previous showdown hands on this table. I sometimes bet marginally under $2, sometimes something like $2.20. I like making vbets marginally under the round $ (like shops selling shit for 99c), and bluffs above the $, but if I think villain has noticed, I adjust.

[rpm]

If we're never bluffing here and he knows that, what does he call with?

the reason i said i believed it doesn't matter is because i assume that villain can't handread and is only looking at his two cards and furthermore, only thinking about them along lines of absolute hand strength and not relative hand strength. i really wouldn't worry too much at all about what villains know about our ranges at stakes this low to be honest. even at 25 and 50nl i see weaker regs who i know can handread at least reasonably talk themselves into making crying/hero calls in spots where every reg knows my range is only the nuts.

[gingerwizard]

personally, I think if he calls $1.80 he calls $2.20. If we're never bluffing but our opponents are not hand reading then we should bet as big as will get called so why not $2.20?

More to the point, what is the reason for not betting more?

[rpm]

fwiw i originally advocated $2.2 earlier in the thread (and that post is unedited). the reason i liked $2.2 is because it sets up a reasonable SPR to shove the river for value, and probably has a higher likelihood of keeping 77-KK in villain's range than would, say, $2.96. tbh i don't hate anything from $2.2-2.5.

[gingerwizard]

^ This is exactly the reason (although we are hoping he shoves over the turn cos a 4th spade would suck).

I think the A gives excuse enough to fold 77-KK at 4NL if he can get away from shiny pairs, so if he folds to $2.20 he folds to $1.80. The interesting question is whether or not $2.20 is losing value. I think betting pot is over kill, but I hate leaving BBs out there. I guess I would have bet about $2.20-$2.30, but maybe $2.40-$2.50 gets called as often and so is better.

Value bet sizing with made hands is one of the hardest things IMO

[BlackRain79]

This spot on the turn depends a lot on how aggressive the opponent is and even moreso on your history with him. The "omg bet the turn AINEC!!! posts" in spots like this always crack me up. Please don't listen to the above and auto bet here every time. Ask yourself what is the most profitable line to take against this particular opponent in this particular hand.

[baudib]

After much debate I think betting smaller is better than bigger. Maybe $1.50-$1.75. The As is the nut scary card in the deck here and if his range is overpairs and sets, it's as bad for him as it is good for us. If he were looser and could have all kinds of lower flushes I'd bomb away.

I'm all for setting up river shoves but I don't think we get stacks in here very often unless he boats up. I'd probably go $1.50 and $2.50 on the river.

This spot on the turn depends a lot on how aggressive the opponent is and even moreso on your history with him. The "omg bet the turn AINEC!!! posts" in spots like this always crack me up. Please don't listen to the above and auto bet here every time. Ask yourself what is the most profitable line to take against this particular opponent in this particular hand.

Checking the turn is downright terrible.

[gingerwizard]

This spot on the turn depends a lot on how aggressive the opponent is and even moreso on your history with him. The "omg bet the turn AINEC!!! posts" in spots like this always crack me up. Please don't listen to the above and auto bet here every time. Ask yourself what is the most profitable line to take against this particular opponent in this particular hand.

Checking the turn is awful as it lets him check back the huge part of his range that will call a bet and leaves us almost no chance of getting stacks in by the river.