Villain 1 (CO): PFR is 31/18/1.8 over 500 HH's with 44% steal. His flop cbet = 61. Let's see if we can get his range by the river. I'm not bothering with position stats - let's go with a range of 25% pfr (+ some junk) in the CO for him.

Merge - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $4.00
UTG: $5.23
CO: $4.00
Hero (BTN): $2.44
SB: $3.73

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.06) Hero has J 3

fold, CO raises to $0.14, fold, SB calls $0.12, fold

Flop: ($0.32, 2 players) 4 4 T
SB checks, CO bets $0.24, SB calls $0.24

Turn: ($0.80, 2 players) 3
SB checks, CO bets $0.60, SB calls $0.60

River: ($2.00, 2 players) 9
SB checks, CO bets $3.02 and is all-in, SB calls $2.75 and is all-in

Robb's Ranges
Spoiler:
Preflop
  • Premium, Broadways Jx, Broadways Tx, all pp's, Axs/sc's (5 chunks, ~ 25%)
  • We'll include some "junk" just to realize he could have a few other combos, especially Ax hands, depending on what he likes to add into his pfr range in LP.


Flop
Superdry, and he's not a cbet monkey. Hmm...let's keep
  • All Premiums
  • Half Broadway Jx (he doesn't cbet just any 2 overs)
  • All Broadway Tx as most of them just hit
  • Half pp's: 44 (obv), and 88+
  • Axs, sc's: A4, T9s, T8s (I'm adding A4 from the "junk" portion - it's not unlikely)


Turn
Another blank, though a couple of draws became active. Only when the range gets narrow do I think in actual combos:
  • Premiums: AA, KK, QQ (18 combos)
  • Broadway Jx: AT only (12 combos)
  • Broadway Tx: KT, QT, JT (48 combos)
  • pp's: 44, 88 - JJ (22 combos) - - we excluded 33 already, don't think he double barrels w/ low pp's < 88)
  • Axs, sc's: A4, T9s, T8s (14 combos)


River
Interesting card. How many of these combos can REALLY three barrel? And with decent sized bets on each street? Here's what's left:
  • pp's: 44, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA
  • Tx: AT, KT, QT, JT, T9s, T8s
  • A4


He obv 3 barrels with 44, 99, TT, KK, AA, A4. But bet-sizing is interesting and seems to rule out TT, AA, KK. He probably barrels with KT, QQ, JJ and Txs (but these are less likely). I don't think he fires two barrels with T8s, so I'd be surprise to see him show that down.

Robb's Best Guess (in order of likelihood): QQ, AT, 99, 44, JJ, TT, AA, KK, A4, and some Tx hands. I think he's got QQ, JJ, AT or a set.



Villain 2 (SB): Taking a look at the other villain, who is 47/9/1.0 over 58 hands with no 3bets. He calls 50% (15 of 30 chances).
Spoiler:
Flop
This one's interesting. He's obv loose passive, but these guys usually need SOME kind of hand, some gutshot draw or bottom pair to continue with. And this board's dry as a bone. Here's my range for him:
  • all pp's 22+, 4x and Tx
  • let's put in some junk like Axs he's floating on a prayer.

Really, what else can he have?

Turn
Ah, some draws appear.
  • all pp's 33+, 4x and Tx
  • AdXd
  • I don't see any 3x left in his range other than 33, but you hate to completely rule it out


River
  • pp's: JJ, QQ (I'm discounting AA/KK, as I think they would have gotten raised preflop or flop. I'm getting rid of all sets completely, as I think they get raised on the river).
  • 4x: A4, K4s discounted heavily (no river bet seems odd w/ trips)
  • Tx: These are fine, I think he continues w/ Tx where x > 7 and probably wouldn't raise the river even with AT.


Robb's Best Guess (SB): KT, QT, JT, JJ, QQ plus other Tx, 4x and sets heavily discounted, other pp's remotely possible.


Here's the results. Ho. Lee. Crap. I was so wrong it's hilarious! If you haven't looked, yet, see if you can put either villain on a hand.

Spoiler:
CO shows A 7 (One Pair, Fours) (Pre 49%, Flop 39%, Turn 27%)
SB shows 2 2 (Two Pair, Fours and Twos) (Pre 51%, Flop 61%, Turn 73%)
CO wins $0.00
SB wins $7.13


End of the day, I'm glad I worked hard on this and thought it through. It's amazing how awful these players are, and realizing the crazy combos that they can be playing helps a ton. Helps explain some of the "nut" lines I've had to fold my TPTK hands against, as well.