WW 2013 Edition: The Conglomerate

[JKDS]

Vote Count 2.01
Hoopy(1): Wufwugy
Bigred(1): Boog690
GatorJH(1): Bigred
Boog(2): Dropthebanana, Keith
Dropthebanana(1): Rong, ongbonga
Jyms(1): Bikes

Not Voting.: Hoopy, Pascal, Jyms, Jackvance, xtr1000, daven, gabe, gator, Aubrey, nightgizmo.

55.5 hrs till deadline, 10 to lynch

I met kinky peoples today. So many olds, so many fats.

[rong]

JKDS, you been hanging out with gator?

[OngBonga]

Vote Count 2.01
Hoopy(1): Wufwugy
Bigred(1): Boog690
GatorJH(1): Bigred
Boog(2): Dropthebanana, Keith
Dropthebanana(2): Rong, ongbonga
Jyms(1): Bikes

Not Voting.: Hoopy, Pascal, Jyms, Jackvance, xtr1000, daven, gabe, gator, Aubrey, nightgizmo.

55.5 hrs till deadline, 10 to lynch

I met kinky peoples today. So many olds, so many fats.

fyp

[jyms]

I'll lynch Boog right now, lets do this

[jyms]

Fwiw, I'm just staying out of the fray a little for now, I think last time I brought too much heat on myself early and want to play more Bigred style and get some endgame play for a change

[DropTheBanana]

My boog lynch was less than serious. I just thought bigred's comment was pretty goddamn funny.

I'm not being inactive due to disinterest or for the sake of not posting. It's more so a function of trying to absorb deviations in other people's games and things I feel are suspicious.

[BooG690]

People openly choosing to be inactive shows us that we've allowed inactivity to become the optimal play. It looks like we're on track to rewarding this play once again.

[daven]

any lists of inactive posters should include posters who are providing no content in support of their lynches. Reading though the thread it seems like there are four inactives = Bigred, Dropthebanana, Bikes, Jackvance

TLR being killed is the only completely solid info we have to go on at the moment, it suggests that we should look more closely at Pascal and Hoopy.
Jyms absence then sudden appearance when he started to look at risk looks very suspicious, along with the timing of his switch to lynch Fulksey.

there is some really weird interplay going on between a few posters as well. I'm going to read through again and see if i can figure anything out.

[BooG690]

boog - instead of being irked about the angel dying, he told me to shut up. instead of being irked that tlr was nom'd, he told me to shut up.

This should probably read:

boog - I'm upset with BooG calling me and my backseat modding out. He's obviously a wolf.

In all seriousness, as a villager I should be bitching and whining about losing TLR and fulksy? I've played almost every game of WW for years now. Losing our top player on day 1 is nothing new and fulksy was inactive on day 1 which almost always leads to his lynch. It seems retarded for me to be vocal about something that is to be expected.

bigred is a transparent player who actually tries when he lands a wolf or special

Seriously? When the HELL have you seen Bigred try? Please link me to this game because I've never seen Bigred post any substance more than three or four times per game.

Wuf, you like to take away credit from the wolves when they slide by as inactives yet it's players like you that make inactivity the optimal play.

hoopy - in his scant posts, he has accused people of being wolves without putting much into it. tlr noticed a peculiarity here, and i think he's right. nobody else seems to pick up on it, and boog even comes out not liking it and instead backing hoopy's idea (even though the critique of jv isn't that good). villager hoopy tends to post more observations and fewer accusations in early games

boog - instead of being irked about the angel dying, he told me to shut up. instead of being irked that tlr was nom'd, he told me to shut up. he defended jyms quite a lot and has defended hoopy where he can. he is more active this game, and that is something i would expect of him if he landed wolf again because we said so many times about the last game that his main problem as a wolf is low post count. he would want to make this improvement. he has some consistencies like naming both fulksy and bigred, and going after bigred today, but to me those are in a way contrived consistencies. this shows his opinion didnt change at all over the night phase, and he'd rather get rid of bigred than do some wolf hunting

I've defended Hoopy where I can? The ONLY time I've mentioned Hoopy was here:

Hoopy's post on JV "casually checking in" deserves more love. It's very unlike Jackvance, a WW vet, to be surprised at the day 1 analysis in a game with both Wuf and Ong.

(which, by the way, is in reference to this post)

Checking in. There seems to be a lot of analysis for a day 1.

Casual wolf casually checking in.

Why would you try and make it seem to those not paying attention as if I've "defended" Hoopy multiple times by saying I "defend Hoopy when [I] can"? You argue that Hoopy's "critique of JV isn't that good" even though YOU actually praised it by saying:

BTW I do think gabe is a wolf and hoopy did us all a favor by catching JV wolfing

Did that drunk post of yours slip your mind?

The only bold of me I actually respect is Keith. His argument is sound and makes complete sense. DTB's and jyms' lynches are almost embarrassing.

[daven]

pascal - didn't really posted much content (except some in posts 164 and 165) at all on day 1 except for defending against wolf allegations => His posting on day 1 still looks wolfy. His posting in response to wuf and what tlr's death means seems like he's taking more of an interest, but i think that is likely to happen irrespective of his role. The post keith found re skype doesn't seem to change anything - i mean, i can't figure out whether it makes him more or less likely to be a wolf.

[Pascal]

XTR has made 4 posts. In his first post he randomly voted for jyms and then gave an excuse for inactivity. In his second post, he says he's sticking with his vote but says refer to Gizmo's reasons without giving any of his own. He then does some spraying and says he's suspicious of Keith and Ong. Third post he says it's all "a bit weird" and says people should be extracting info when he's not made any posts to do so. In post 4, he switches to fulsky for not showing up. His content has been really low and he's done nothing to help the village.

DTB has also made 4 posts. Ironically his first post started with:

Definitely agree that lower post count players should get lynched early while our information gathering is in it's infancy.

He then aimed at daven for using the noob card. Second post he jumps on the wagon for fulsky, not too early but not too late to be a sealing vote (bikes and jyms get on after him). The timing is suspicious IMO, he only makes one post then happens to make his second post with no reasoning but just to jump on the wagon. 3rd post is an arbitrary no content post bolding boog. 4th post happened minutes ago for this excuse for inactivity:

It's more so a function of trying to absorb deviations in other people's games and things I feel are suspicious.

I'm really suspicious of both of them and both go on my list of wolves.

[Pascal]

lol timing

[gabe]

i dont think we should lynch dtb or boog. i see nothing that seems wolfy about them. ive read the arguments but dont buy any of it. boog was a wolf last game and part of a dominating wolf team, why would he switch up his playstyle so much if he was a wolf again. dtb seems pretty neutral, doing the same thing he was doing last game until a bandwagon started on him

my suspicious list starts with ongbonga, hoopy and pascal. there are a few others that need vetting (jackvance, xtr, gator, rong, bikes?).

a few small comments by both ongbonga and hoopy have set off alarm bells. pascal just cant seem not suspicious. ill lynch any of these 3

lynch hoopy

[daven]

hoopy - his first few posts (15, 66, 67, 87, 156, 190, 191) are mostly air. He seems to be trying hard to appear active while not actually contributing anything concrete. Then TLR calls him out as a likely wolf (202) and gets killed. Hoopy's response (262) also seems empty of content.

[gabe]

TLR being killed is the only completely solid info we have to go on at the moment, it suggests that we should look more closely at Pascal and Hoopy.

i disagree. TLR is a solid player and its +EV for the wolves to kill him. i dont think we should factor in his posts because the wolves could be on any level


also i didnt mention bigred because he makes me LOL so i dont want him killed yet. but hes not cleared of being a wolf by any means

[daven]

i disagree. TLR is a solid player and its +EV for the wolves to kill him. i dont think we should factor in his posts because we the wolves could be on any level

makes sense, i always tend to assume people are playing face up until shown otherwise though.

ok, reading through jyms' posts and their timing is interesting. He's missing in action until he looked like he might be killed as an inactive. I actually buy that his wifi went down, but unless it has gone down again there seems to be something fishy (wolfy) going on there. He was active to avoid the heat on inactves until the lynch diverted from him. Then went quiet, until jumping in again to be the 11th to lynch fulksey. Now he's again jumping on something (boog lynch) without posting any reasoning. But he's taking an 8 year old to see monster trucks and i think that is cool enough for him to not get my vote for now. Similar to Gabe not wanting to Lynch Bigred cos entertainment i guess.

[daven]

add XTR to the list of inactives, as posted above

[daven]

wuf, boog, and ong are posting a whole lot. Are any of them likely to be able to manage to keep that up without slipping up somewhere if they're wolves? Next time i log in i'll be taking a close look at their posts.

[daven]

Pascal still seems most likely to me.

Lynch Pascal.

[OngBonga]

yay I'm not obvtown.

What small comments concern you then gabe?

[Keith]

pascal was posting on the forum until 1am UK time. The link i posted he said that he was waiting up for a couple of hours for a skype call. Factor in the post where boog says he only gets 4 hours per day when he can post and looking up his posting history for this game , most of boogs posts have been made between midnight and 4am UK time.

Waiting for boog explains the long wolf night . The death right up could easily have been pre writen by the mods and just the name written in so would take no time from wolves agreeing a victim to result being posted. Game thread started up again just before 3am . Pascal's skype call and boogs online time and wolf kill being sent in all fit nicely into that time frame.

[Pascal]

It's a nice theory, very Sherlock Holmes-esque. Pity it's not true.

[gabe]

lynch ongbonga
if hoopy was a villager i would be sad we lost him. dont feel the same about ong. ong is always a wildcard

[Hoopy]

As I said before I'm away from home at the moment and on my phone. I' ll be able to post my thoughts in about 12 hours when I get back.

[Pascal]

JKDS said this was OK

http://i.imgur.com/viGPbAm.png

[JKDS]

And with that

Out-of-game speak is hereby BANNED.

No outside information is permitted within the confines of this game. This game exists within the limits of this thread. Attempting to smuggle in such contraband information will result in you getting contraBANNED.

This includes pms, skype logs, commune posts, etc.

You may continue to use the out-of-game information already posted in thread, but nothing more.

[Keith]

for the record , having looked at the image pascal posted it shows his conversation message history with boog over the last 30 days and was blank. It also shows boogs name . In respect of Boog's privacy can i suggest that the image be deleted by a mod and the mod deleting it shouldn't be held responsible for deleting it.

Of itself the image doesn't prove anything, the wolves could easily have set up a skype group and i think message posted on the skype group wouldn't show on an individuals conversation history.

[JKDS]

Poker News Writers & Contributors Poker Blogs

His name is public knowledge. No privacy is violated.

You just got LAWYARD.

[Pascal]

for the record , having looked at the image pascal posted it shows his conversation message history with boog over the last 30 days and was blank. It also shows boogs name . In respect of Boog's privacy can i suggest that the image be deleted by a mod and the mod deleting it shouldn't be held responsible for deleting it.

Of itself the image doesn't prove anything, the wolves could easily have set up a skype group and i think message posted on the skype group wouldn't show on an individuals conversation history.

Didn't think of that tbh, fair point. Again, not true unfortunately but I can't prove this one and there's so many real names on my contact list who don't happen to be FTR poker writers I'd have to black basically the whole thing out

[bigred]

Going out for some drinks. I'll be back to impart my "knowledge" upon all of you in a few hours.

[GatorJH]

In fact, I hate the whole thing between Wuf and Ong.

Wuf says Ong is very unlikely to have made the TLR kill.
Ong latches on to this and calls himself cleared.
Ong says Wuf should be listened to.
Ong bolds someone who is in Wuf's list of likely wolves.

This EXACTLY. Also, Wuf posted 10 minutes after the TLR kill was announced yet seemingly already had everything figured out.

And wuf is also smart enough to know this......

TLR is a solid player and its +EV for the wolves to kill him. i dont think we should factor in his posts because the wolves could be on any level

At this point wuf tops my list, but I could also be talked into voting for Pascal. I also think Jyms is just busy and really think he would put more effort into posting some if he were a wolf.

If Bigred continues to be Bigred he will have to go before endgame. It just makes it too hard.

[DropTheBanana]

People openly choosing to be inactive shows us that we've allowed inactivity to become the optimal play. It looks like we're on track to rewarding this play once again.

"Inactive" and "Quietly Observing" are two different things. I would rather post infrequently and have something semi-substantial than post 10 times a day and and swing around blindfolded.




Pascal's posts have struck me as odd. He seems to be asking questions that can be answered with common sense and a quick skim over the thread. Almost overly insinuating his innocence.



What really sticks out in my mind is Keith's "timing tell" post.

1.) Keith is incredibly smart and understands subtle nuances in WW. He knows the wolves aren't the only ones PM'ing the mod(s) but chalks up the long night to a wolf delay. Albeit he had outside information to back up this claim.

2.) The wolves ate a great end game player which I would assume makes them comprised of longer standing vets who know this. Plus, wolves generally start talking about Night 1 nom choices well before the day is over and probably had TLR in mind before the Fulksy lynch ended.

Maybe it's made with completely honest intentions, but if I had to ponder a guess. The wolves weren't the delay but wolf Keith is using the longer time frame as a way to make arguments against other people.

I'm going to rescind boog and am more than happy lynching the two I named.

[gabe]

lynch pascal

[OngBonga]

Gabe, you change your vote before I even respond. What's the point?

[Keith]

@dtb : the village team who could delay the night were originally angel (dead) ,vigilante (no shot) and seer. Which means that you are saying that its more likely that the seer was so confused that he couldn't decide who to look up and the wolves had already settled on who they were going to eat towards the end of the day phase and no discussion was necessary and that this proves i'm a wolf.

This is stupid logic as wolves would probably have further discussions with no angel to protect the better players and 4 players debating and coming up with a consensus is bound to take longer than a single player who had the same opportunities to choose a look up during the day and his lookup choice is unlikely to have been altered by the death of the angel.

[XTR1000]

I´m really not sure what to make of the wuf / bungabunga / keith / pascal bunch. I see the point of bolding my name, with me being rather inactive and even I consider myself a below-avergae villager. Yet it´s rather weird how ongbonga and keith try to link me up with pascal - I haven´t been defending him, I was being suspicous of them for giving themselves a lot of exposure AND being very confident in their arguments which is both what bold wolves do. Linking an semi-inactive villager up to pascal and trying to get him lynched is what you do to clear a wolves name. Funny enough there is pascal few posts above trying to cast suspicion on me, but not bolding my name. I hate gettig defensive here, but something isn´t quite right.

There were also very early suggestions from keith to have the vig put someone down, when it´s entirely pointless for the village but massively +ev for the pack with all specials still in the game (at that point at least). It´s a way to fish for the vig´s name, too.


So based on that I say lynch keith and see whats gonna happen.

[bigred]

I don't know how anyone can be confidently suspicious of anyone. The only thing that sticks out to me right now is Boog's crusade against inactives. Probably because it involves me. Seems like a decent plan based on past games but also an easy way for a wolf to take a simple line without drawing any associations.

^XTR getting super defensive, interesting.

[bigred]

XTR has made 4 posts. In his first post he randomly voted for jyms and then gave an excuse for inactivity. In his second post, he says he's sticking with his vote but says refer to Gizmo's reasons without giving any of his own. He then does some spraying and says he's suspicious of Keith and Ong. Third post he says it's all "a bit weird" and says people should be extracting info when he's not made any posts to do so. In post 4, he switches to fulsky for not showing up. His content has been really low and he's done nothing to help the village.

DTB has also made 4 posts. Ironically his first post started with:



He then aimed at daven for using the noob card. Second post he jumps on the wagon for fulsky, not too early but not too late to be a sealing vote (bikes and jyms get on after him). The timing is suspicious IMO, he only makes one post then happens to make his second post with no reasoning but just to jump on the wagon. 3rd post is an arbitrary no content post bolding boog. 4th post happened minutes ago for this excuse for inactivity:



I'm really suspicious of both of them and both go on my list of wolves.

Meh, the wolves aren't going to bandwagon closely to each other on day 1. That gives too much to work with later on in the game. A timing tell like this is just grasping at air for a reason to lynch someone.

[bigred]

I think I like a hoopy lynch the most, slightly over XTR and Boog, the Crusader. I realize labeling Hoopy's posts as useless activity is the pot calling the kettle awesome, but he's also going out of his way to say he's busy and wants to be involved. That's my level 0 read of a level 0 wolf tactic.

lynch hoopy, FOR SCIENCE!

[Keith]

Quite suspicious of OngBonga, who has been awfully defensive this early in the game. Same goes for Keith, who is also trying ye olde "vig shoot inactive"-trick.

.

Your post is almost as bad as Pascal's post. How do you define someone who has made several posts with glaring errors as being inactive. I'm not pulling the vig shoot inactive trick . I'm saying let the vig shoot someone who is likely to be a liability in the endgame rather than wasting a lynch on him. Either way he will be dead. If he's a villager the wolves aren't going to kill someone who they see as beneficial to their cause, we should be trying to find and kill wolves with the lynchs not taking out the inept and certainly shouldn't risk shooting the seer or angel this early in the game.
The way the vig PM was worded it looks like they can't stock up with bullets for more info later in the game and can only shoot on even nights.(can a mod clarify this)

Just for clarification. I haven't linked you to Pascal except to say that your post was as bad as Pascal's for its glaring error.I also suggested that the Vig could take out Pascal because of all his errors. I've continued pressing for Pascals links to boog and boog's link to jyms. I haven't linked you to any of them and the only reason that i posted about you is because you posted erroneous facts regarding my posts which i corrected. How does that make me a wolf? And you keep linking me to wuf and ongbonga with no evidence.

your second paragraph also doesn't tie in with my actions in the first day, I was suggesting that fulksy was given as long as possible to turn up and post in case he was a special.The village pressed ahead and lynched a special anyway. If i was a wolf there is no need to make the argument as for the wolves fulksy was a more likely special than he was for a villager.

Where have I pushed to get you lynched? You're the that keeps saying that i'm trying to get you lynched and trying to say its a big conspiracy between me, wuf and ongie when all i've done is correct you when you targetted me initially with false facts.What i posted wasn't Vig hunting either , it was a suggestion that instead of lynching Pascal to leave him for the vig since Pascal and his errors would be beneficial for the wolves to keep around.either way Pascal would be dead, shot instead of lynched.

[Hoopy]

At this point I'm looking for villagers more than wolves, and the people who seem like villagers to me at the moment are daven, rong and keith. Based on how they are wolf hunting.

I might be prepared to toss aubrey in there as well, he posts reasonably often, unguarded and seems like he isn't being coached. For example he commented on bigred & BooG bickering which makes sense because he doesn't know that they always do that.

That's all I've got on the villager front.

[Hoopy]

The only wolf suspects for me at the moment are jackvance and DTB.

Both just seem to be floating along not really hunting wolves. I've seen JV do this successfully as a wolf before (drop in 3 line post then disappear), DTB is slightly less bad as his 5th post did have some analysis.

As for the rest nobody else really stands out at this early stage, bigred and bikes especially have very little profile if that makes sense.

Going to read over pascal's posts now because people keep mentioning him.

[JKDS]

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING.

POSTING OUT-OF-GAME CONTENT, OTHER THAN THAT ALREADY IN THREAD, WILL RESULT IN A MODKILL.

You know who you are.

[wufwugy]

sorry guys but ive been grunching hard. probably because my mind is made up on which players i want dead. apparently you guys have been breaking the rules

[gabe]

we have to lynch pascal. if hes a wolf i dont feel bad because our angel was inactive...

[aubreymcfate]

sorry guys but ive been grunching hard. probably because my mind is made up on which players i want dead. apparently you guys have been breaking the rules

suspicious that you're not even going to reply to any of what boog said to you... i was curious to see your rebuttal because i think he raised good points. plus, he showed an inconsistency in your opinion on what hoopy said. this seems like a bit of a lame excuse.

[OngBonga]

I think hoopy is a villager, but that might just be because he's echoing my jv-banana read. If those two happen to be villagers, then good chance hoopy is a wolf trying to tie me to him.

xtr's recent post is solid, and has me leaning town with him.

I'm still happy with my banana vote.

[wufwugy]

suspicious that you're not even going to reply to any of what boog said to you... i was curious to see your rebuttal because i think he raised good points. plus, he showed an inconsistency in your opinion on what hoopy said. this seems like a bit of a lame excuse.

meh i was drunk and everybody knows i fling mud around. ive also become a lot less aggressive with my assertions due to experience in the game and modding

[wufwugy]

looks like 4 way tie between hoopy dtb pascal boog

[Hoopy]

these two posts don't make any sense together. so Hoopy wants TLR nommed because TLR thinks he's a wolf even though he knows it'll draw suspicion to him, but Ong wouldn't nom TLR because he knows that'll draw suspicion to him? i don't think Hoopy and Ong would think that differently.

I read all of pascal's posts and don't know what to think. On one hand he's made some good points like the one above, but sometimes he does tag along with peoples ideas in a wolfy way. Neutral for now.

Gizmo has been fairly quiet this game compared to previous games. He's usually in the top 1/3 of the post count.

[gabe]

it makes sense that dtb and gizmo arent as aggro this game because they both stuck their neck out last game and got punished for it.

whats the evidence on boog? him pushing for fulksy lynch isnt wolfy at all. i also thought fulsky was clearly the best lynch on day 1 and im a villager. the evidence for pascal is greater than boog.

hoopy im OK i guess...but it seems like the wolves wouldnt risk the TLR->Hoopy connection if he was a wolf. they couldve but imo makes more sense if they didnt

[JKDS]

Vote Count 2.02
Hoopy(2): Wufwugy, bigred
Bigred(1): Boog690
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(2): Rong, ongbonga
Jyms(1): Bikes
Pascal(2): Daven, Gabe
Keith(1): xtr1000

Not Voting.: Hoopy, Pascal, Jackvance, gator, Aubrey, nightgizmo, dropthebanana

Dead line is in 28 hours, 34 minutes. 10 votes needed to lynch

[gabe]

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING.

POSTING OUT-OF-GAME CONTENT, OTHER THAN THAT ALREADY IN THREAD, WILL RESULT IN A MODKILL.

You know who you are.

does this mean the instance of outofgame content is still fair game, or does referring to it count as posting outofgame content ?

[JKDS]

Any out-of-game content currently part of THIS THREAD is fair game. You may refer to what is already here as much as you like.

[Pascal]

Don't think the current out-of-game content proves/disproves anything about me. If I wasn't waiting for Boog on Skype then it obv doesn't mean I'm definitely not a wolf

[wufwugy]

in my moddings i learned that dispersed wagons hurt the village because it allowed the wolves to not die. naturally, i like to say that dispersed wagons are because the wolves dont wanna wagon themselves, but i think what happens more often is that the wolves are really just in the backdrop and doing whatever while the village flounders around. i cant rectify these two things that easily because i do think a few of the wagons are of wolves, even though my observations say thats unlikely.

I am going to take this as meaning that it is possible that everybody at 2 votes is actually a villager. I'm not going to bank on that, but it could happen. It is, however, probable that MOST of them are villagers. Then there's the next "tier" of players of those who have had some heat and are lynchable today in boog bigred and jyms (some regs like gabe, rong, etc are not going to be lynched today at this point). XTR can probably be included. Anyways, of those four, I think the most problematic is bigred. Nobody paid any attention to him on day 1 when i had him bolded, except boog but he still stayed on fulksy. This suggests that it's possible that bigred is a wolf yet has stayed out of the spotlight because no wolves have said anything and only two villagers have (me and boog). I also went back over things and his style isn't as transparent as I thought i.e. he would be doing fuckall as a wolf now too as he usually does. I get bad vibes from boog and jyms too, especially jyms, but i feel like boog is the least likely wolf of this group, but if he's wolf so is jyms

Anyways, I said all that to explain why I'm switching to bigred and we need to all fit ourselves onto two wagons instead of being so dispersed

lynch bigred

[wufwugy]

also i dont find jv's low activity level too obscure, he's done this sorta thing in the past in some ways. he's kinda just tough to pin down on this. however, i think the best argument for him being low activity as a wolf is because he doesn't want to get seer'd since he's always one of the first. i know he is very cognizant of his high profile too

[bikes]

will be reading this thread and posting thoughts after pats game

[BooG690]

Vote Count 2.02
Hoopy(2): Wufwugy, bigred
Bigred(1): Boog690
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(2): Rong, ongbonga
Jyms(1): Bikes
Pascal(2): Daven, Gabe
Keith(1): xtr1000

Not Voting.: Hoopy, Pascal, Jackvance, gator, Aubrey, nightgizmo, dropthebanana

Dead line is in 28 hours, 34 minutes. 10 votes needed to lynch

Curious as to why I'm the only one bolded when it's tied? Even something as small/stupid as size may influence bandwagon-prone players to jump on my bandwagon assuming I'm the one with the most people on it (though that has changed). JKDS obviously has a vendetta against me.

[bigred]

in my moddings i learned that dispersed wagons hurt the village because it allowed the wolves to not die. naturally, i like to say that dispersed wagons are because the wolves dont wanna wagon themselves, but i think what happens more often is that the wolves are really just in the backdrop and doing whatever while the village flounders around. i cant rectify these two things that easily because i do think a few of the wagons are of wolves, even though my observations say thats unlikely.

I am going to take this as meaning that it is possible that everybody at 2 votes is actually a villager. I'm not going to bank on that, but it could happen. It is, however, probable that MOST of them are villagers. Then there's the next "tier" of players of those who have had some heat and are lynchable today in boog bigred and jyms (some regs like gabe, rong, etc are not going to be lynched today at this point). XTR can probably be included. Anyways, of those four, I think the most problematic is bigred. Nobody paid any attention to him on day 1 when i had him bolded, except boog but he still stayed on fulksy. This suggests that it's possible that bigred is a wolf yet has stayed out of the spotlight because no wolves have said anything and only two villagers have (me and boog). I also went back over things and his style isn't as transparent as I thought i.e. he would be doing fuckall as a wolf now too as he usually does. I get bad vibes from boog and jyms too, especially jyms, but i feel like boog is the least likely wolf of this group, but if he's wolf so is jyms

Anyways, I said all that to explain why I'm switching to bigred and we need to all fit ourselves onto two wagons instead of being so dispersed

lynch bigred

So that makes two votes for me which by your logic means I'm a villager. Try not to get any brain on this thread when your head asplodes from the paradox you just created.

[aubreymcfate]

meh i was drunk and everybody knows i fling mud around. ive also become a lot less aggressive with my assertions due to experience in the game and modding

boring

[OngBonga]

Curious as to why I'm the only one bolded when it's tied? Even something as small/stupid as size may influence bandwagon-prone players to jump on my bandwagon assuming I'm the one with the most people on it (though that has changed). JKDS obviously has a vendetta against me.

You were first to reach 2, so you get lynched if it remains a tie at 2 votes. There's no coin flips.

[gabe]

the cases for jyms/bigred are all built on nothing and the case for boog is misinformed

ongbonga is a better lynch than bigred (they both add same value to village winning, both play erratically)

pascal is a better lynch than boog. like pascal said, keith made a very sherlock holmes-esque circumstantial read (probably coincidence stuff most of the time), but combined with the other stuff, pascal makes more sense. hes trying to seem not competent enough. cmon keith you can switch your vote especially if youre encouraging the vig to shoot pascal

hoopy is a better lynch than jyms. a wagon got pointed at jyms because of his low initial activity, but thats been somewhat explained by him referencing out-of-game content. jyms shouldnt have a wagon now, but he can only make excuses for so long. hoopy has done noticably suspicious stuff (his posts havent been as constructive mostly). this post http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2127390 might seem like a joke, but my senses tell me a wolf makes this joke way more often than a villager

im still on pascal

[gabe]

also id rather lynch someone from [xtr, rong, jackvance, gator, bikes] than [jyms,bigred, wuf, dtb, daven, aubrey, gizmo, keith]

[wufwugy]

hoopy is a better lynch than jyms. a wagon got pointed at jyms because of his low initial activity, but thats been somewhat explained by him referencing out-of-game content. jyms shouldnt have a wagon now, but he can only make excuses for so long. hoopy has done noticably suspicious stuff (his posts havent been as constructive mostly). this post http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2127390 might seem like a joke, but my senses tell me a wolf makes this joke way more often than a villager

im still on pascal

you're right, but nobody seems to want to lynch him. he called like three people wolves in three different posts in his first few posts in relatively flippant rationales. I'm pretty sure that is not hoopy's style. guy is a wolf

[aubreymcfate]

hoopy has done noticably suspicious stuff (his posts havent been as constructive mostly).

Hoopy also called me a he instead of a she. Personally I don't really care since it makes sense to assume guy until proven otherwise, but I've been referred to as a she enough for anyone closely reading the thread to take note of it...

Generally speaking I don't think it's that unlikely that a villager closely reading the thread could make a similar mistake, but that combined with the lack of constructive posting and flippant accusations could mean something.

I agree with wugy though, we shouldn't be too dispersed. If we focus on one person, the reactions of everyone will be more telling. The question is, who do we want to focus on.

Right now I would go for hoopy or bigred. I get this feeling that bigred, if he's a wolf, feels safe in posting mostly meaningless content because the only person that's really up his ass about it is boog. Well, now wufwugy somewhat, but then gabe comes in and says it's built on nothing. Well, of course it's going to be built on nothing if bigred's posts are substantially equal to nothing. That line of reasoning will keep posters like that safe.

[aubreymcfate]

Actually I do think it's unlikely for a villager closely reading the thread to miss that. I assumed it would be a likely mistake for anyone at first since it's a sausage fest up in here, but actually the opposite might be true for that exact reason. Instead of glazing over the "she" it might actually stand out more.

I know Hoopy was on his phone for a bit, but when he called me a "he" he was typing more (his phone posts were pretty terse), leading me to believe that by that point, he was on a computer, and probably had more time to closely read the thread.

[Hoopy]

you're right, but nobody seems to want to lynch him. he called like three people wolves in three different posts in his first few posts in relatively flippant rationales. I'm pretty sure that is not hoopy's style. guy is a wolf

Of those 3 people JV is the only one I considered to be remotely wolfy.

I feel like the spread of votes right now means we're close to a wolf.

lynch Pascal

[OngBonga]

ongbonga is a better lynch than bigred (they both add same value to village winning, both play erratically)

Bullshit. I might play erratically, can't argue with that point, but to suggest I'm a better lynch than bigred based on value, this is obviously crap. People can read me because I post a lot of content, and I'm yet to see bigred make a huge ass reads post, like the one I'm currently creating. So while I accept I am erratic as hell, I feel I provide the village with a lot more value, and I'm not a bitch to get a read from like bigred. So your logic here is flawed.

[OngBonga]

Boog690 - a little more active than usual, but I've never questioned boog's activity, I feel his input is entirely based on his IRL schedule, not his role. Could be wolf, but not because he's active. He has a hard-on for inactives, understandable after last game where he and galap were able to float by with ease.
bolds - wuf (random 1st vote), fulsky, bigred

Read - villager

Hoopy - low activity. Points finger at jv and banana.
bolds - jack

Read - villager

Pascal - I've had a lot to say about pascal. I didn't like his revenge vote on me after I said he was wolf, but keith's post about his skype comment, it really did swing my opinion. Just seems retarded to make that post if he's a wolf, and pascal is not retarded. So as much as I don't like some of his posts, I'm not convinced he's a wolf any longer. He's more active than the same point last game, as wolf he didn't know what to post.
bolds - ong, fulsky

Read - villager.

Rong - Seems like his usual villager self to me. Strongly in favour of killing inactives.
bolds - fulsky, banana

Read - villager.

Bikes - Seems reserved, holds his vote when we're pointing random fingers, says he doesn't want to lynch me so as to not appear spiteful. His push at jyms seems villagery, and he hasn't really given me any wolf vibes yet, so he can go in villager camp, at least until we have more from him.
bolds keith, fulsky, jyms

Read - villager.

Jyms - so quiet, he has 13 posts compared to my 54 (and one of his posts is a duplicate), most unlike jyms. But he was active as wolf too, so I just don't know. I can't see him being so stupid as to drop his activity level when he's a wolf, he knows this will get him heat. So based on that alone, I'm leaning villager with jyms. The only reason I have for concern with jyms is his interaction with me, I feel if pascal happens to be a wolf, then I need to look again at jyms, because he's sharp as anything pointing out the flaws in my case against pascal. But the points he makes are valid, so meh. I don't like his boog lynch, and his "going to bed" after fulsky vote is a good way to not have to rescind when he claims. So there's reason for doubt.
bolds - bigred, fulsky, boog

Read - leaning villager, this changes to wolf if pascal is wolf.

Will continue later, need a break.

[wufwugy]

i triple dog dare the wolves to keep the night phase under 24 hours

i quadruple dog dare the wolves to not nom me. let goatest thing you could do is let me live till the very end but trick me so hard that i still have no idea what's going on then forever and ever you can say teh wugy sucks

[wufwugy]

I get this feeling that bigred, if he's a wolf, feels safe in posting mostly meaningless content because the only person that's really up his ass about it is boog. Well, now wufwugy somewhat, but then gabe comes in and says it's built on nothing. Well, of course it's going to be built on nothing if bigred's posts are substantially equal to nothing. That line of reasoning will keep posters like that safe.

you're already better than half the players here. i told you they all sucked buttsack

[wufwugy]

jyms is rubbing me wrong. if he was a villager i dont think he would care so much about not being a target due to the kind of activity in his last two games. he doesn't strike me as a thin-skinned person like that, and the only reason he is NOW playing really conservatively is because he's indeed a barky bark aka wolf

[bikes]

jyms is rubbing me wrong. if he was a villager i dont think he would care so much about not being a target due to the kind of activity in his last two games. he doesn't strike me as a thin-skinned person like that, and the only reason he is NOW playing really conservatively is because he's indeed a barky bark aka wolf

.

[wufwugy]

gator has never been this inactive as a wolf. he's too lovey dovey to let his team down. as a wolf he goes into full boar pwnt mode