WW 2013 Edition: The Conglomerate

[DropTheBanana]

Why are your answers so short?

I have no reason to explain myself to a wolf and the rest of the village doesn't believe me anyways, so it would be pointless.

Once one of us dies it seals the fact I'm telling the truth and that's the only way to prove my innocence that people will actually believe.

[BooG690]

It's pointless? Wouldn't you want to try to do what's best for the village and convince them you're the seer. That's your play as the seer. So, again, please explain.

Also, don't make it seem like today's options are one of us two. Both of us can live supplying the village with either confirmed villager or wolfy information once one of us is offed.

[BooG690]

Actually, since you're soon to be confirmed villager/seer, do us all a favor and do an analysis of the remaining players. That'll be really useful once you're confirmed.

[wufwugy]

After reading through the thread, and assuming DTB is indeed a wolf, ong, wuf and hoopy seem cleared, daven probably aswell. Gizmo and Keith still look like villagers to me. Gator is probably a villager aswell but not sure.

Bikes and boog are my main suspects atm, with boog up front. BR and aubry remain a wildcard. I'll reserve judgment about jyms until he starts posting more. It could very well be any combination of these.


About DTB, his reluctance to switch to pascal, his fellow wolf, was pretty damning, and while the wolves could have neglected to nom him as a ploy, I don't buy that he looked up wuf either. Why look up someone on the first day that is so actively posting his opinions? It's just the one of the most trivial villagery people to point at when DTB had to be quick with his fake outing.

Now, DTB might have panicked and fake-outed without thinking, but he was maybe expecting jyms to be lynched. I'll have to go back and check the exact vote counts again, but this could go a long way towards giving jyms villager cred if DTB turns up as a wolf.

the only way jv makes this post as a wolf echoing much of my analysis a mere four minutes after my post is if he's sick as fuck

[wufwugy]

btw i have confirmed boog is villager and dtb is wolf.

boog is winning that exchange hands down. two wolves faking wouldn't have that dynamic and dtb being legit would be more fervent about his position

[OngBonga]

Ok so banana is probably a wolf and boog is probably a villager. I don't want to lynch either today. If by some miracle banana is the seer, they absolutely hands down have to kill him tonight, because he's already outed another wolf. If he doesn't die, we kill him tomorrow after he tells us who his last fake look up was.

It's possible though that boog is a wolf. I mean he's good enough to play the innocent villager card. But no way should we lynch him today. I don't even know why banana has bothered to vote him, he knows we don't lynch him today. Banana is not thinking like a seer.

I think bikes is a little wolfy, but I'm really reluctant to lynch him and be wrong again. I got burned bad last time. So he can be wuf's read, wuf can take the fall for a bikes mislynch if we go down that road today.

I prefer to lynch jack, so lynch jack

[OngBonga]

the only way jv makes this post as a wolf echoing much of my analysis a mere four minutes after my post is if he's sick as fuck

You think jack is incapable of thinking like a villager when he's a wolf? He tells me I'm mentally masturbating after I name banana and pascal as wolves. He looks pretty damn wolfy to me at this moment. It's pretty easy to tell us who the obvious villagers are.

[OngBonga]

Oh, and I like a bikes lynch today. He's useless and I can see him being a wolf. Let's keep seer-wolf alive and play. Time for class!

I don't like this post. Bikes isn't useless. He might have given us very little so far this game, but he's proven himself to be an excellent endgame asset. So I don't agree bikes is useless, and boog should realise this.

[wufwugy]

I don't like this post. Bikes isn't useless. He might have given us very little so far this game, but he's proven himself to be an excellent endgame asset. So I don't agree bikes is useless, and boog should realise this.

the thing about this is that it coincides with boog's fervent attack of low activity players this cycle

one thing ive learned about boog is that he will always (always) surprise you

[wufwugy]

You think jack is incapable of thinking like a villager when he's a wolf? He tells me I'm mentally masturbating after I name banana and pascal as wolves. He looks pretty damn wolfy to me at this moment. It's pretty easy to tell us who the obvious villagers are.

I'm not sure what to think, I really do need the input of others.

But I do know that a wolf who acts legit like a villager is a sight to behold. Most cannot pull that off

[wufwugy]

dont get me wrong tho, both boog and jv could be wolves. be sure to come to your own conclusions on that.

the game when i got gator lynched effectively lost the whole thing for the village, and ive learned that no matter how sure you are, you might be wrong. furthermore, my moddings have shown me that things are never what meets the eye and constant reevalutation is necessary

[JKDS]

Vote Count 3.01

Boog(2): Keith, DTB
JackVance(1): Ong

Notvoting: Boog, Hoopy, Rong, Bikes, Jyms, Wuf, JV, Daven, Gator, Aubrey, NG, BR

Deadline is 2 something days in the future. With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch!

Do you have a flag? No flag, no country!

[OngBonga]

To be fair, I kinda got lucky with pascal. I sniffed him out early, then convinced myself I was wrong, then xtr did his vote switcharoo which had me back on pascal's case, but that switch was not what I originally thought it was, it wasn't intended to save pascal if the votes tied. So maybe my read on jack is flawed too.

I'll have a read up again at some point today. I'd like to lynch someone who isn't a loss to the village when we're wrong, so on that basis rescind jack. We really know where we're at tomorrow. It's all very easy assuming banana is wolf, but he might not be. And if he's not, I have much less reason to suspect jack. So I guess I should wait to hound him.

Here's a brief outline of my reads, if only so I can see how many people we have virtually cleared...

Boog690 - I assume villager, obv wolf if banana happens to be seer.
Hoopy - villager
Pascal - dead wolf
Rong - prob villager, not sure though
Bikes - unsure
Jyms - unsure, could be a wolf
Wufwugy - villager
Ongbonga - villager
Jackvance - suspect
XTR1000 - dead villager
DroptheBanana - claimed seer, prob wolf
Daven - villager
Tlr - dead villager
Gabe - dead villager
Gator - hmmm... bugger is always tough to read... unsure
Aubrey - unsure
NightGizmo - villager
Fulsky - dead angel
Keith - villager
Bigred - unsure

It's safe to say there's at least one wolf between banana and boog, that much is obvious. So I'm looking for two more in this group -
rong, bikes, jyms, jack, gator, aubrey, bigred

Not lynching any of these...
hoopy, wuf, daven, gizmo, keith

Throw me into the latter group, if we can assume there's no wolves here, then we're in fantastic shape. We can lynch and vig our way through the first group, while the wolves pick off those in the 2nd, and we're odds on to win. Just gets tricky if there's a wolf in amongst the good bunch, or if boog and banana are wolves. But we probably still have the seer, so I'm in confident mood right now.

[wufwugy]

So Keith bold Boog before anybody bolds anybody then DTB says he looked up Boog and bolds him?

I'm sorry but this is precisely the kind of thing Keith did the last time he was wolf

Both DTB and Keith are wolves

[OngBonga]

lol really wuf? Come on, on what planet does a wolf try to hang another wolf by pointing out the skype comment? It's real hard to not base my read on that, but keith is pretty much a lock villager in my eyes. That would be really fucking sick.

[wufwugy]

I asked for the tldr of the skype thing because i didn't pay one iota of attention to it.

[OngBonga]

It's completely unsurprising that keith has bolded boog today. Had xtr not died, I'd have hounded him all day long. Keith had a wolf read on pascal, and that read linked him with boog. Maybe that read is flawed, maybe not. But keith is obv gonna think he's onto something, so it's hardly an omfg vote when he bolds boog today.

Banana named boog as his wolf scan for whatever reason. Maybe because he knew keith was going to press the skype line.

If keith's a wolf, then fuck me man, that's some sick levelling going on there. You'd have to assume the whole skype nonsense was a great master plan, that pascal was happy to die to make keith look like a lock villager.

[OngBonga]

I asked for the tldr of the skype thing because i didn't pay one iota of attention to it.

Oh... keith pointed to thread where pascal says something like "had a late night, waiting for skype" or some shit like that. Pascal's bedtime is around boog's hello time, so it's not a stretch. But, really sloppy wolf play if that comment was referring to wolf skype.

[wufwugy]

Jesus Christ, Keith

[wufwugy]

This pisses me off because what Keith did is against the rules and he fucking knows it, but because it's not the most unbearably obvious offense, JKDS let it slide.

We should lynch him out of principle despite the fact that the whole dynamic of the situation proves he's a villager

[wufwugy]

To clarify, I would let it slide too if I was modding. Keith should have known better

[BooG690]

FWIW, it was never explicitly against the rules to use outside information in WW. I believe it's unethical but it was never illegal. There was one game where the village lost because whatever mod it was had visited every specials' profile which was logged in last 10 to visit. It was really gay but not against the rules.

[OngBonga]

I'm finding it hard to believe you didn't notice the shitstorm that went down at the time. JKDS posted in big pink letters not to use stuff from out of thread for the rest of the game. Why wouldn't you read up from there? Are you playing dumb?

[OngBonga]

^ @wuf

[wufwugy]

Due to the lack of unified rules in the sticky of this forum, I've had to rely on the hence designated rules and implied rules, and I recall one of the mods (I think it was Rilla) claiming specifically that non-WW gamethread material was not allowed

[wufwugy]

I'm finding it hard to believe you didn't notice the shitstorm that went down at the time. JKDS posted in big pink letters not to use stuff from out of thread for the rest of the game. Why wouldn't you read up from there? Are you playing dumb?

I saw the big pink letters, but I didn't care. I've discovered that my play style is very intuitive, and this means that I often ignore lots of stuff only to at a later date return and finally read it. This is because I can only evaluate suspicions when I have a premise to refer to. For example, this is how I've figured out that DTB is a wolf. After he outed as the seer, I found it very interesting to figure out whether or not he's lying, so I then read all his posts that I had partially skipped before, and due to my higher density of focus due to specific interest, I was able to come to a conclusion

Ofc we don't know if he's a wolf yet, but I'm positive he is, and explaining why I think that is answering your question of why I heavily grunch sometimes

Also, when I see somebody breaking the rules, I simply do not care about what they were posting about. I have an idea of who is what based on an observation that I do not think is completely fair play, and for that reason, I haven't mentioned it and I won't

[rong]

Re wufs post 72. we need to look at all other votes before that clears jyms. is it feasible that the wolves were pushing for a different wagon? Assuming dtb is a wolf, we only have 2 others and pascal, so what other bws were attempted? will look back later.

[OngBonga]

Pascal is an interesting bandwagon, but I'm not too worried about him yet. When he was a wolf last game, I felt that I was able to tell pretty easily after he got in a decent amount of posts, so I can wait another day or two for him to prove himself or hang himself. When he was a special 2 games ago, he was pretty solid -- I'm kinda hoping he's a villager so we can see how he plays that role.

Hmmm... gizmo could be a wolf. Pascal hasn't been special, aside from wolf. He's been villager / wolf / wolf; in his first game he got scanned by me on n1 and was a cleared villager from the end of d2 onwards. He wasn't all that solid, to be expected on first game. I recall asking him a few times to post his thoughts on the village before he got killed, and he never really got stuck in.

So why does gizmo tell us that pascal was solid when he was special?

Gizmo is not in my likely villager pool any longer.

[rong]

Also its crazy to lynch dtb today. Almost definitely wolf, but remote chance of seer exists and there's no point just quick lynching him today even if known wolf as the days discussion is too important.

[rong]

Some thoughts on people off the top of my head and having not read back through thread since day 2 lynch..

Keith. Hard for him to be a wolf after the pascal Skype thing. Not voting him.

Bikes. So far pretty useless but his mo as a villager seems to be skate by doing fuck all and then nail Shit in end game. This would make him a very dangerous wolf.

Ong. Always so keen to say how he's a cleared villager, makes me not trust him.

Boog. Prob villager but everything he's done that makes him villagery he is capable of doing as a wolf. Keeping an eye on him.

Jv. Possible wolf.

Jyms. Need to look at day 2 bws to see if wufs theory holds water.

Wuf. Nobody seems to be considering the possibility of him being a wolf. He's in most peoples villager camp. This seems to be based on his style rather than substance. Just sayin.

No thoughts on who to lynch just yet. I wanna go back and reassess things. It's hard on my phone but will do so this morning regardless.

[OngBonga]

^ I've thought about this a bunch and it still feels like a good idea
Fulksey vs Pascal
= an inactive vs the player i'm most suspicious of thus far.
sound good?

Lynch Pascal

Yeah daven is a villager, not close. This pascal vote came just after I suggested we go for xtr instead of pascal.

Noone joined the xtr wagon at the time, really strange seeing as the lynch made a lot of sense, what with everyone wanting to kill low value inactives etc. But bigred and boog wanted to remind me how much d1 is dribble (after binking a wolf with my first serious vote, no less).

You guys should give me more love on d1.

[OngBonga]

Wuf. Nobody seems to be considering the possibility of him being a wolf. He's in most peoples villager camp. This seems to be based on his style rather than substance. Just sayin.

lol I have him as villager because of his substance, not style. Check out his drunk post where he nails pascal as a fanfuckingtastic lynch.

[Keith]

It's completely unsurprising that keith has bolded boog today. Had xtr not died, I'd have hounded him all day long. Keith had a wolf read on pascal, and that read linked him with boog. Maybe that read is flawed, maybe not. But keith is obv gonna think he's onto something, so it's hardly an omfg vote when he bolds boog today.

Banana named boog as his wolf scan for whatever reason. Maybe because he knew keith was going to press the skype line.

dtb is seer, pascal showing as awolf makes boog a logical lookup with the links i posted.
dtb is wolf, boog as wolf is now a lame duck, could be sacrificing him to get seer credibility and then get another claimed wolf lookup again tomorrow.can't really see any benefit to that though as true seer gets extra lookup and hopefully gets to reveal his lookups.

hmmm .....also if dtb is wolf , what are the chances his first lookup is also a wolf? Everyone would asume that he wouldn't point at a wolf as he'd be shown up as a wolf fairly soon anyway.

Also why the outrage by wuf about the skype link. That was sloppiness from Pascal and i can imagine the shit storm from the wolves in their private skype. Forum stuff was always fair game when i played in the past, hence my posts saying that jyms and fulksy hadn't logged in to FTR and to give fulksy time to log in and find out his role. If implied rules have changed in the past two years how was i supposed to know. I posted in last WW game dead/congrats/signup thread thread ( i think it was one of them ) that it was the first WW i'd read and kept up with for a long time

If keith's a wolf, then fuck me man, that's some sick levelling going on there. You'd have to assume the whole skype nonsense was a great master plan, that pascal was happy to die to make keith look like a lock villager.

I've pulled the lynch a wolf line with wilbur as early lynch with evidence before as a deliberate plan , theres zero chance that i'll ever get away with it again or for some of the vets to forget it.If boog/jyms turns out to be a wolf/wolves trying to get 2 or 3 co wolves lynched is stupid as its compromising the wolf team in the hopes that i avoid a lookup/vig shot.

[BooG690]

You are completely married to me being a wolf, aren't you?

[rong]

Keith, you seem to be saying that dtb (if wolf) only claims that boog (if wolf) is a wolf to get boog killed and extend his own life/lie. I disagree with this because we won't necessarily lynch boog on his say so, so it may be done with an expectation that we don't believe him in the hope that when he dies and is revealed wolf that he has potentially given boog added villager cred, especially baring in mind the amount if anti boog sentiment currently in the village. A wolf Boog might feel his days are numbered already and that the potential extra villager cred is needed.

[OngBonga]

I'm gonna suggest an xtr lynch. Pascal is active, bigred and fulsky will probably be active once they realise we've started, xtr is someone who likes to float by and he's given me reason to think he could be a wolf. If he turns out to be, then pascal is probably a wolf too.

Based on activity, pascal is more of a loss to the village than xtr, and I want to actually string someone up who has a decent chance of being wolf. bigred and fulsky have not even posted, so it's unlikely they know the game has started, let alone their roles. So these pair are random chance targets, they're only slightly more likely to be wolf than special.

lynch XTR1000

This lynch makes more sense than someone who hasn't posted, but has shown in the past they play the game.

Ok, so why didn't anyone jump on this wagon? It could've taken off like wildfire. Here was a chance for the wolves to see a villager xtr get lynched instead of a wolf pascal, and it's me that takes the rap for it. So why did noone jump on? I guess the wolves didn't want to be next vote, because when pascal flips wolf, it looks dodgy. This suggests to me that at least one of the wolves is thinking about who to vote for, and is directing the others accordingly.

daven is next vote after this post, his pascal vote that I posted above. This pretty much clears daven, as if he needed clearing.

bigred then comes in with a jyms vote, then tells me d1 is drivel, then points a vague finger of suspicion at daven.

gizmo next, telling me that we're better off targetting an inactive, stating he sees no compelling evidence to shift him away from inactives.

Next up, jyms, mocking my d1 efforts from vamps game.

Dan comes in with a fulsky vote shortly after this exchange and as such he remains on radar.

Onto the next page, jack comes in with a daven vote, states willingness to lynch fulsky if push comes to shove. Dan defends daven, saying it's a terrible lynch. I'm feeling a little better about dan here.

Then it's me with a pascal vote, and hoopy with a jack vote, with daven defence to boot.

Gator comes in with a dan vote, saying his posts scream wolf. Strong words.

All in all, I feel there's heavy wolf influence in this flurry of activity. Pascal is in trouble and they'll want another wagon, but they're not taking the xtr wagon. So what are they up to?

[BooG690]

Keith, you seem to be saying that dtb (if wolf) only claims that boog (if wolf) is a wolf to get boog killed and extend his own life/lie. I disagree with this because we won't necessarily lynch boog on his say so, so it may be done with an expectation that we don't believe him in the hope that when he dies and is revealed wolf that he has potentially given boog added villager cred, especially baring in mind the amount if anti boog sentiment currently in the village. A wolf Boog might feel his days are numbered already and that the potential extra villager cred is needed.

Is that what he said? I couldn't really comprehend.

[OngBonga]

So banana is lolwolf, which means jack is probably a wolf too, so the last one imo is between gator, bigred, jyms and gizmo. I can find reasons for all of them... jyms and bigred both trying to slap me down for d1 soulreads at a time I've sniffed a wolf out on d1, gizmo for suggesting pascal was strong as a special, even though pascal is yet to be either strong or special, and gator's dan vote is so dodgy. Unless, of course, gator is right and I'm wrong, that dan is a wolf.

I'll punt at gizmo. Misdirection with his pascal comments.

[Keith]

You are completely married to me being a wolf, aren't you?

erm ...yep

I have no reason to explain myself to a wolf and the rest of the village doesn't believe me anyways, so it would be pointless.

Once one of us dies it seals the fact I'm telling the truth and that's the only way to prove my innocence that people will actually believe.

this is some really shitty logic.
if boog dies and comes back a wolf, you can be the seer who looked him up or a wolf trying to use the argument above to clear your co wolf.
if DTB dies and come back as wolf , it doesn't clear boog of being a wolf, just that the back and forth above was an attempt to give him villager credit.
if DTB dies and comes back as seer then boog is wolf.
none of the above scenarios clears boog and only DTB dieing and coming back seer clears him but is pretty shitty for the village. Which rong alluded to as trying to interpret what i said.

[DropTheBanana]

dtb being legit would be more fervent about his position

Everybody thinks I fake outed. I have zero credit and won't until I die.

Since it is 100% fact that BooG is a wolf, I'm not going to feed into his interrogation.

There's absolutely nothing I can say that will change the fact you all think I'm a wolf. The only things that will clear my name is him getting lynched or myself getting lynched/eaten.

In all honesty, the wolves now have no reason to eat me since my posts hold no water and they know anything I say will be brushed off as bullshit while they rape and pillage their way through more villagers.

You can either believe me or lynch me, but keeping us both around thinking I'm a wolf is counterproductive.

I say we either:

1. Lynch BooG today and force their hand for the next two nights. (Myself and Wufwugy)

2. Lynch me today, take BooG out tomorrow, and y'all can continue with a less confusing game.

[rong]

So the seer is suggesting we lynch him. Lol don't you want another potential look up?

[rong]

That pretty much seals it for me, although I'd still keep him alive for another day just in case.

[OngBonga]

In all honesty, the wolves now have no reason to eat me since my posts hold no water and they know anything I say will be brushed off as bullshit while they rape and pillage their way through more villagers.

Incorrect, wolf. If you're seer, they kill you tonight because otherwise you might bink another wolf and tell us tomorrow, giving us two wolves for our seer, in the futile hope we lynch him.

We do not lynch you, because, if you're the seer, they simply have to eat you eventually, every day they leave you either clears another villager or nails another wolf.

But you know this, wolf. If you're the seer, then you recognise that from the village's pov, lynching either you or boog today is stupid.

[BooG690]

But since you're going to have villager credit when you're dead, you should be happy to supply the village with opinions that will later be confirmed to have come from a villager/seer. It's only right that you do so.

[DropTheBanana]

So the seer is suggesting we lynch him. Lol don't you want another potential look up?

My information is more valuable with me dead. I'd rather be a dead seer that found a wolf than a live seer that nobody will listen to.

[rong]

Aren't you at work?

[rong]

A live seer nobody listens to is only not listened to until he's dead, at which point your lookups could win the game for the village.

[OngBonga]

I kinda want to lynch banana because he's always a wolf here, but it's just premature ejaculation.

I'm back on jack. [b]lycnh jack[/]

It's either him or gizmo for me, both huge assets as town, so whatever. Jack said banana was a disinterested villager for being quiet, and told us he doesn't remember how his former wolf buddy plays. He lurks as wolf, actively wolf hunts as villager. This is wolf banana all day long, and jack should know that.

[OngBonga]

pfft vote fail, lynch jack

[jackvance]

Alright, now boog isn't going to be a wolf afterall. The exchange with DTB solidifies that pretty much.

Wuf. Nobody seems to be considering the possibility of him being a wolf. He's in most peoples villager camp. This seems to be based on his style rather than substance. Just sayin.

Both I would say. Substance, how he picked out pascal from the get-go and got the ball rolling on that. Other voting patterns. And on a more personal note, how his analysis today coincided with mine a lot.. whenever I have seen that with someone in previous games they have 100% been a villager.

@ong, maybe I need to explain myself more clearly for you. You so furiously look for patterns, that you see them very often where they are not. Now, everyone does this, but you have a tendency to keep on hammering on things and go completely off track. That is why I called it 'mental masturbation' when I saw you post this:

Interesting... pascal was on 4, first to get there... XTR's rescind and revote took pascal down to 3, and back to 4... who now gets lynched if it stays like this? That could be a coached rescind / revote in order to change the tiebreak.

Further evidence linking XTR to pascal.

And no, this was not directed at pointing at pascal and dtb, I bolded the part I was talking about, you took something which was (to me) clearly incidental, and made a big wolf play out of it. But wolves never make these kind of awkward plays. XTR has been cleared now aswell, so I was right on that.

That said, here is the last thing Gabe said about his preferred kills before he was nommed

rong/hoopy/aubrey are who i would probably shoot if my finger was itchin

Hoopy is a solid villager in my eyes, aubrey could def be a wolf, rong I would be surprised if he flipped wolf but he is tricky enough that it is in the realm of possibilities.

The wolves seem to be most likely two of {bikes, aubrey, BR} with reservations for {gator, rong, jyms} who haven't solidly swayed either way. BR's voting candidates seem to be pretty random, combined with taking influence from what the village is saying. We can let DTB live for another day, altho he is never ever the seer, but he can give us more info which is great.

lynch bigred

[DropTheBanana]

If you're the seer, then you recognise that from the village's pov, lynching either you or boog today is stupid.

What?

Of course I see it from a different pov because I'm now working with more information. I know he's a wolf and don't think lynching him is stupid.

The point of the game is for the village to win, not for me to win.

[OngBonga]

I know he's a wolf and don't think lynching him is stupid.

But we don't know that, do we? If you were sat in my position, you would think lynching boog is stupid. You'd also think lynching the claimed seer is stupid.

It's pretty obvious what your game is here banana. Your focus is on boog. Why are you trying to prove he's a wolf? We won't need convincing if you flip seer. Why don't you tell us what you think about the rest of the village?

[rong]

Jv. You just stated that boog is proved villager by dtb's claim that he is a wolf and their conversation regarding it.

WTF?

You just proved why its worth wolf dtb claiming he looked up boog (if wolf).

[GatorJH]

lol really wuf? Come on, on what planet does a wolf try to hang another wolf by pointing out the skype comment? It's real hard to not base my read on that, but keith is pretty much a lock villager in my eyes. That would be really fucking sick.

I could see Keith making that kind of move in mid or late game, but on day 2? Why risk it?

[jackvance]

Jv. You just stated that boog is proved villager by dtb's claim that he is a wolf and their conversation regarding it.

WTF?

You just proved why its worth wolf dtb claiming he looked up boog (if wolf).

Their bitch-slap fight seemed genuine to me, meaning they won't be both wolves together.

[OngBonga]

If banana is wolf, then boog is very probably a villager, because it's higher value for the wolves to try and flush out the real seer, rather than give a fellow wolf villager cred that fails when if he gets looked up. Banana is seer hunting here, how is that not obvious to everyone? They probably think boog is the seer and me vig, so they'll want boog lynched today, then if he's seer they have a clear nom at me. The fact banana is so blatantly trying to get boog lynched instead of trying to find the other wolves shows not only is banana a wolf, but they're in the shit and want me gone before vig gets another shot.

[rong]

How would dtb saying he looked up boog and he's a wolf, make boog, if seer, out himself? That makes no sense whatsoever. Firstly dtb has no credibility at all and has no hope of us acting on his word and secondly boog is a pro, he wouldn't out himself there.

And lol how somehow it also revolves around you.

[OngBonga]

He's named him as wolf then bolded him. He wants us to lynch him.

And of course it revolves around me. I'm the single most important thing in the universe.

[rong]

Did your mummy tell you that?

[OngBonga]

Nah, I'm behind a brother and sister in her pecking order because I haven't given her a grandchild yet. She just tells me I'm special and then gives me some jelly tots.

[Keith]

post332

"Inactive" and "Quietly Observing" are two different things. I would rather post infrequently and have something semi-substantial than post 10 times a day and and swing around blindfolded.



Pascal's posts have struck me as odd. He seems to be asking questions that can be answered with common sense and a quick skim over the thread. Almost overly insinuating his innocence.


What really sticks out in my mind is Keith's "timing tell" post.

1.) Keith is incredibly smart and understands subtle nuances in WW. He knows the wolves aren't the only ones PM'ing the mod(s) but chalks up the long night to a wolf delay. Albeit he had outside information to back up this claim.

2.) The wolves ate a great end game player which I would assume makes them comprised of longer standing vets who know this. Plus, wolves generally start talking about Night 1 nom choices well before the day is over and probably had TLR in mind before the Fulksy lynch ended.

Maybe it's made with completely honest intentions, but if I had to ponder a guess. The wolves weren't the delay but wolf Keith is using the longer time frame as a way to make arguments against other people.

I'm going to rescind boog and am more than happy lynching the two I named.

I was accusing boog and jyms at this time and pascal was getting heat. Why bring out the wolf accusations against me? We know Pascal was a wolf and he's happy to lynch him but he attacks me and covers his own ass by saying that i maybe i have honest intentions. What was the phrase ongie used " chainsaw defence" by attacking someone who is attacking another wolf?

[DropTheBanana]

Why don't you tell us what you think about the rest of the village?

I think anybody actively doubting I am the seer with no reason to think I actually am, are likely villagers. Barring BooG obv.

Anybody leaving "a chance" that I'm the seer or not commenting on it at all has a higher probability of being a wolf.

He's named him as wolf then bolded him. He wants us to lynch him.

Because I scanned him and KNOW he is a wolf. Why in the hell would I not bold him and push for his lynch?

[jackvance]

If banana is wolf, then boog is very probably a villager, because it's higher value for the wolves to try and flush out the real seer, rather than give a fellow wolf villager cred that fails when if he gets looked up. Banana is seer hunting here, how is that not obvious to everyone? They probably think boog is the seer and me vig, so they'll want boog lynched today, then if he's seer they have a clear nom at me. The fact banana is so blatantly trying to get boog lynched instead of trying to find the other wolves shows not only is banana a wolf, but they're in the shit and want me gone before vig gets another shot.

Now this is a good post ong. Kudos. Except for the part where you claim they think you're the vig, that reads like fiction. Thinking about this some more, here is a hypothetical situation:

Boog is the real seer. Day 1 he expressed his dislike of BR's playstyle, which probably resulted in boog looking him up. And on day 2 he bolds BR and goes after him pretty strongly. This can only be if the look-up came back wolf. I found it uncharacteristic of boog to be so gung-ho going for BR, but in this case, it makes perfect sense.

The wolves have also picked up on this, and want to kill the seer. But then DTB fake outs as the seer (he probably rather out as angel, but the angel is already dead, and he can't out as the vig because then the real vig would simply shoot him). So they can't nom boog because then DTB's cover would be blown for all to see, instead they go with the plan of DTB saying he looked up a wolf boog, and trying to get us to lynch the seer. A flimsy plan, because even if he succeeds in getting a wagon started, boog will out as the seer and we lynch dtb. But then they will be 100% sure boog is the seer and can eradicate the second special, leaving only the vig to be found.

Now, this is hypothetical, I could be wrong, and don't be mad the seer might be outed here, because if I'm right then the wolves already consider him the seer so it's nothing new for them.

Also, the wolves probably killed Gabe thinking he might be the vig because he talked about vig actions so much.


Conclusion: we really should lynch BR.

[DropTheBanana]

post332
Why bring out the wolf accusations against me? We know Pascal was a wolf and he's happy to lynch him but he attacks me and covers his own ass by saying that i maybe i have honest intentions. What was the phrase ongie used " chainsaw defence" by attacking someone who is attacking another wolf?

I'm pretty sure I was the reason Night 1 was held up.

So it struck me as odd that you pointed it out the hold up and nobody else did. It was a theory, not an attack.

[OngBonga]

Yeah I like my vote where it is. If this hypothetical boog seer does have a slam dunk on bigred, I suspect he would've told us by now because that gives us two wolves, and he wouldn't want to die without giving us bigred. Why would jack push for bigred then based on the hypothetical boog seer? Why not just wait until boog is ready to tell us?

[OngBonga]

I'm pretty sure I was the reason Night 1 was held up.

Wait what? I thought only the wolves could extend the deadline. Is this designed to be deliberately wolfy? Keith is gonna be all over this, reinforcing his boog read. At first glance it looks like banana is trying to protect boog from the skype timing tell. I think this goes deeper. Banana has decided to be more subtle in his push to get boog lynched.

[jackvance]

Yeah I like my vote where it is. If this hypothetical boog seer does have a slam dunk on bigred, I suspect he would've told us by now because that gives us two wolves, and he wouldn't want to die without giving us bigred. Why would jack push for bigred then based on the hypothetical boog seer? Why not just wait until boog is ready to tell us?

Because I prefer to lynch a wolf today rather than a villager. And my vote was on BR already prior to my previous post. This just gives me more incentive to want BR dead.

[OngBonga]

But if boog is seer with guilty on bigred, then he's only got one more to find. We'd be better off lynching someone else to thin the pool for him. This is something I'd totally expect a villager jack to consider.

More votes on jack, village. He's a wolf.

[BooG690]

Jack, did you just conjure up a hypothetical situation as reason to lynch someone?

[jackvance]

But if boog is seer with guilty on bigred, then he's only got one more to find. We'd be better off lynching someone else to thin the pool for him. This is something I'd totally expect a villager jack to consider.

If my hypothesis is correct, then it doesn't matter because the wolves are very likely to nom the seer anyway so he can't do any more lookups. I'd totally expect a villager ong to realize that.

Jack, did you just conjure up a hypothetical situation as reason to lynch someone?

As I said, I already bolded him for other reasons, he's in my pool of top suspects. In light of this theory I just posted, it adds that it would give us a lot of information what his role is.

[BooG690]

With this vote count:

Vote Count 2.04[FONT=&quot]
Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690
Boog(1): Jyms
Dropthebanana(2): Rong, Pascal
Jyms(7): Bikes, Wufwugy, Aubrey, Dropthebanana, Keith, Nightgizmo, Gabe [SIZE=2]
Pascal(4): Daven, Hoopy, Xtr1000, Ongbonga

At 6:18pm EST - Wufwugy rescinds jyms, and bolds DTB, not Pascal.

At 7:26pm EST, DTB "outs as the seer." It's here that, veteran player, jyms seemingly begins to argue against lynching Pascal or DTB. He makes really bad arguments that a veteran player like him should never be making. For instance:

Either way, without the angel the seer being outted is useless anyway isn't it?

and if we lynch the vig and he's lying where does that leave us?

A player like jyms knows damn well we never vote to lynch DTB here and getting any other bandwagon (especially one with a low-value player like Pascal) ahead is always the play. Jyms is super reluctant to play ball. Jyms is good enough to predict the future though:

And if the wolves don't eat him, we think he's lying and lynch him tomorrow only to find out we wasted another day and he is the seer and don't believe anything he says even if he looks up a wolf tonight?

After much arguing, jyms changes his vote an hour after DTB outed (and after jyms realized there was no saving Pascal).

ALL THE WHILE, Wufwugy hadn't posted a damn thing. With everything that went on, WUFWUGY, the greatest WW player there ever was, posted nothing. As leader of the wolves' den, he was obviously quite busy putting everything together and didn't have time to pay attention to the main thread. Wufwugy finally begins posting after two hours and twenty minutes of inactivity. He tries to stall the Pascal lynch and posts this in an attempt to distance himself from the two:

i think ive figured out that dtb is lying.

his wagon went bonkers in a very short time and then he miraculously showed up, but he hasn't been that active otherwise. he says hes unsure how to play special, but i dont believe that because hes a vet who has played wolf a lot and not knowing how to play special wouldn't be that much of a factor. i dont like that he looked me up because i feel the seer doesnt do that this time.

but most importantly, i think seer dtb would have more of an opinion about who's who

looks like dtb is the wolf and pascal could be too. or it could just be that dtb didnt bold pascal because hes not the seer, not becuase he didnt want to bold a fellow wolf

This is after my vote put Pascal as the confirmed lynch.

If you take anything from this, it's that both jyms and Wufwugy were stalling for time and looking for outs. Wufwugy went missing entirely.

Also a little funny that BOTH Pascal and DTB name Wufwugy as confirmed villager. I'm not exactly sure what that means but shit's suspect.

Got a couple of ideas for villagers but so far IMO only strong villager read is wuf even if he does talk some shit

Goddammit. Without The Angel this is going to suck.

I was hoping I had enough heat to stay away from the wolves targeting me but not enough to get the chopping block from the village, but since this isn't gong to turn around without me doing this...

I'm The Seer.

I looked up Wufwugy and he's a villager. Was hoping to stockpile more information but C'est La Vie.

Use that as best you can.

GG.

Also, I posted this long post as a rebuttal to a post of Wuf's. He totally ignored it. Since when does Wuf avoid a good argument? He chalked up ignoring my post to him being drunk when I said all the stuff I quoted.

Now I understand that some of you will be reluctant to lynch Wufwugy since he's instilled the lie of him being a good player into your heads. However, a lynch jyms shouldn't be too far-fetched. If anything, we'd be lynching a player that, like DTB, admitted he will be inactive this game:

Fwiw, I'm just staying out of the fray a little for now, I think last time I brought too much heat on myself early and want to play more Bigred style and get some endgame play for a change

And 30 minutes later:

My boog lynch was less than serious. I just thought bigred's comment was pretty goddamn funny.

I'm not being inactive due to disinterest or for the sake of not posting. It's more so a function of trying to absorb deviations in other people's games and things I feel are suspicious.

Do the right thing. Vote jyms.

[BooG690]

Oh, and Wufwugy's initial switch from jyms to DTB because he went for the lesser wagon even though he had been suspicious of Pascal, too. Super wolf move to go to the less threatening fellow wolf wagon.

[BooG690]

Fuck me, that should read:
Oh, and Wufwugy's initial switch from jyms to DTB is fishy because he went for the lesser wagon even though he had been suspicious of Pascal, too. Super wolf move to go to the less threatening fellow wolf wagon.

And with that, I'm going to fucking sleep. GOOD NIGHT.

[NightGizmo]

Hmmm... gizmo could be a wolf. Pascal hasn't been special, aside from wolf. He's been villager / wolf / wolf; in his first game he got scanned by me on n1 and was a cleared villager from the end of d2 onwards. He wasn't all that solid, to be expected on first game. I recall asking him a few times to post his thoughts on the village before he got killed, and he never really got stuck in.

So why does gizmo tell us that pascal was solid when he was special?

Gizmo is not in my likely villager pool any longer.

Yeah, case of bad memory. He was a confirmed villager in that game, which for some reason I remembered as special (and played well in that role). I realized my mistake a day or two later and never corrected myself, since it was so after the fact.

[NightGizmo]

I don't see how a wolf, faking as a seer, would name another wolf as a wolf. There is too much chance that the village would decide to lynch the named player. Also, I don't understand why a wolf, faking as a seer, would name *anyone* as a wolf -- unless he expects to die soon and is just screwing with the village. Which is definitely possible, I suppose.

My first reaction when seeing DTB name boog as wolf was that we should lynch boog (after all, we now know for sure that that there is a 50% chance of hitting a wolf, and if we miss then we know 100% that DTB is a wolf). But Ong brings up a good point -- we'll know overnight whether DTB was lying, I don't expect the wolves to let a real seer live another night.