WW 2013 Edition: The Conglomerate

[jackvance]

Damn Ong, that is some legit fucking hunting. That's seriously really good

On the contrary. Soon it will become apparent just how bad of a post this is. No need to take my word for it though.

Anyway, ong seems so convinced I'm a wolf that he's blinded by anything pointing to the contrary. He pulled up a bunch of quotes, and expresses his suspicions at things I said. However, I have replied to many of those accusations already. To name one example:

And even if you think boog is seer who has a guilty on bigred, you should know that we're better off lynching someone other than bigred, because this thins the pool for boog's next scan.

I responded to this already with "if I'm right then the wolves will nom the seer so he doesn't get any more look-ups. And you should know that" to which he replied "ong's gonna ong" whatever that may mean. But he leaves that out, aswell as most of my replies, because they don't fit in the picture he's trying to portray.

Then there's a whole bunch of quotes that essentially show I'm changing my mind as more information comes in, same as all the other villagers. But with me, it shows I'm a wolf. Or that I was defending banana, when all I did was give him the benefit of the doubt until he posted more. If I was a wolf knowing he was a wolf, I for sure would have ignored him at that time altogether.

I mean.. how credible is it that ALL MY POSTS are suddenly wolfy, like he claims. Should be a dead giveaway he has blinders on when doing his analysis.

[OngBonga]

You can see why I think you're a wolf though jack, right? Whether I'm right or wrong, you understand where I'm coming from?

Why are you voting for jyms after you acknowledged the banana claim and subsequent dithering for the pascal wagon makes him likely villager?

[wufwugy]

lol if jack, banana, pascal and hoopy are all wolves, hoopy is a ridiculously good wolf.

why

[JKDS]

Vote Count 3.02

Boog(1): DTB
JackVance(3): Ong, Jyms, Wufwugy
Jyms(5): Boog, Nightgizmo, Keith, Jackvance, Gator
Rong(1): Bikes

Notvoting: Hoopy, Rong, Aubrey, BR, daven

Deadline is in 1 day, 19 hours, 50 min. With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch!

The first lesbian sex scene to ever appear on network television was on S07E20 of Buffy the Vampire Slayer.

[daven]

Ong, are you saying that there is:
one lock wolf in [Jackvance/Jyms]
one lock wolf in [Boog690/Dropthebanana]
one (and only one) wolf in [everyone else]

?

I'm not happy with lynching Dropthebanana as I stated earlier. If he is seer then we're fucked. I need to think a lot more about Boog690, but I don't feel good about lynching him either. I mean, we'd find out for sure about Dropthebanana - but we find that out anyway based on who the wolves hit.
Your argument for lynching Jackvance hasn't convinced me; there seem to be relevant posts that are missing in your series of quotes and his rebuttals sound solid. Jyms seems more wolf because of the sheer weight of circumstantial evidence, I'll do some more hunting now and see what i can find.

[wufwugy]

at this point im going to be very surprised if jv shows up as villager

[jackvance]

You can see why I think you're a wolf though jack, right? Whether I'm right or wrong, you understand where I'm coming from?

Why are you voting for jyms after you acknowledged the banana claim and subsequent dithering for the pascal wagon makes him likely villager?

Because it turned into a me vs him bandwagon race, so I don't have much of a choice in the matter anymore.

Maybe you should direct this question at wuf. He came to the same conclusion as me about Jyms, yet he also voted Jyms now without his head being on the line.

- Jyms is cleared as a villager. This is because the DTB wagon built up in the final days while Jyms was in the lead. If Jyms was a wolf, this would mean that the wolves would have no chance of not lynching a wolf

So yeah, we can confirm Jyms is a villager now

and then

Yeah this is just too much. There's just something about the way Jyms has been participating while also not participating. It's so strong that I'm now thinking maybe DTB is the seer and the Jyms/Boog connection I saw early on is true, or if DTB and Jyms are wolves then it was really just a lack of preparation that got the wagons the way they did when everybody flipped from Jyms to DTB to Pascal

rescind JV lynch jyms

Personally I'm not doubting that dtb is a wolf, but there is fishiness surrounding jyms so he isn't in the total clear either. I'd much rather see someone lynched today that is more of an enigma and could be a problem to have around in the endgame. Reason is that it is important to see what the night brings, it should give us a lot of information.

[OngBonga]

why

Because, as far as I can recall, he's gone after all three of them. It's possible that he can be wolf with them, but it's about as likely as me being a wolf with jv, banana and pascal. Unless I see that I'm wrong about jack, I see no reason at all to suspect hoopy.

daven...

Ong, are you saying that there is:
one lock wolf in [Jackvance/Jyms]
one lock wolf in [Boog690/Dropthebanana]
one (and only one) wolf in [everyone else]

All I can be certain about is there's a wolf between banana and boog, but we all know that. I'll be very surprised if it's boog. It's not impossible for both to be wolves, but unlikely.

I don't know about jyms if jv is not a wolf. I don't like that he keeps emerging then disappearing, but then again, I'd be very surprised if he'd make this adjustment to his usual game when he gets wolf role.

If jv and banana are indeed wolves, yeah I guess anyone can be the last wolf. I'd have hoopy and boog as least likely, and probably the village will see me as equally unlikely too. But I would be cautious about giving anyone unlynchable status, especially wuf.

If wrong about jack, village should pretty much disregard all of my reads, and perhaps vig should seriously consider shooting me. I would have no complaints.

Your argument for lynching Jackvance hasn't convinced me; there seem to be relevant posts that are missing in your series of quotes and his rebuttals sound solid.

Fair enough. Jack is an expert ww player and is not going to just lie down if he's a wolf, he'll fight until his last breath. Or I might be wrong. I can't blame you for stalling when it comes to lynching jack, because of how strong he is. This is sure as I can be about someone without actually having definite information. I was right about pascal, wrong about xtr, and it looks like I was right about banana. It's up to you guys to weigh up the options and make your choice. I'd be surprised if jyms got lynched over jack after the case I've given, but it's not watertight, I realise that. Neither is the case on jyms. Only, jack himself recognises that jyms is probably a villager if banana is a wolf, due to the vote count at the time of the claim, and the subsequent pascal wagon. Wolves wouldn't have anticipated pascal getting killed like that, they would've expected jyms to die. So I see jack as a much better lynch than jyms, but jyms is concerning me, so his lynch isn't horrible.

jack -

Maybe you should direct this question at wuf.

Sure. Wuf? Why did you flip to jyms?

[wufwugy]

Because it turned into a me vs him bandwagon race, so I don't have much of a choice in the matter anymore.

It actually didn't. I merely suggested it, and people have played along. Your wagon hasnt had too much traction.

But it is a race now. You kinda played into the narrative we have set.

Maybe you should direct this question at wuf. He came to the same conclusion as me about Jyms, yet he also voted Jyms now without his head being on the line.

The difference is that I've been explaining my thought processes all along. You put up a great defense of why Jyms is a villager (which was the same as my initial "lock villager" assessment), but your explanations for why he's a wolf now are merely "he's fishy" and "he's on my list"

Personally I'm not doubting that dtb is a wolf, but there is fishiness surrounding jyms so he isn't in the total clear either. I'd much rather see someone lynched today that is more of an enigma and could be a problem to have around in the endgame. Reason is that it is important to see what the night brings, it should give us a lot of information.

You have abandoned your attempts to wolf hunt just so you can not get lynched. Villager JV wouldn't do this with nearly two days left in the day phase

[wufwugy]

Sure. Wuf? Why did you flip to jyms?

Post 722 http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2129583

Also, I proposed the Jyms vs JV wagon because I was unsure of both of them but they were also at the top of who I wanted to lynch. So I expected being able to switch if some new information arose

[OngBonga]

The difference is that I've been explaining my thought processes all along. You put up a great defense of why Jyms is a villager (which was the same as my initial "lock villager" assessment), but your explanations for why he's a wolf now are merely "he's fishy" and "he's on my list"

This.

You have abandoned your attempts to wolf hunt just so you can not get lynched. Villager JV wouldn't do this with nearly two days left in the day phase

And this.

[jackvance]

The difference is that I've been explaining my thought processes all along. You put up a great defense of why Jyms is a villager (which was the same as my initial "lock villager" assessment), but your explanations for why he's a wolf now are merely "he's fishy" and "he's on my list"

I bolded him after seeing he bolded me, I mean I know I am a villager, so better him than me.

You have abandoned your attempts to wolf hunt just so you can not get lynched. Villager JV wouldn't do this with nearly two days left in the day phase

I have done no such thing. I only had to take an intermission when a wagon was starting to be trained on me. I've also already stated on this page where I think we should go look for wolves. And, as you say, with nearly two days left, how do you come to the conclusion that I stopped?

And funny enough, when I was wolf-hunting, you called it "trying to appear to be wolf hunting". So I'm damned if I do, and damned if I don't in your eyes. Yet you switched your vote to jyms anyway. Then ong makes his post, to which Daven, a new player, replied he saw there was a lot omitted and he didn't buy it, but suddenly you're sure I'm a wolf? After the whole DTB outing thing you've been acting very fishy wuf.

[daven]

i just read/summarised all of Gabe's posts. Made some notes initially, then kinda stopped. I copied whole posts a couple of times. It took too long, this approach to wolf hunting doesn't seem optimal. Live and learn. Posted here anyway, i think there is value in there somewhere:

gabe's posts:

Day 1:

# 30 - air, and a meaningless bold
# 42 - amusing, and what seems like another arbitrary lynch (based on thinking Pascal is either wolf or liability villager?)
# 44 - air (?, yet this has Wufwugy ready to start a wagon. Wufwugy, you seem to make huge reads based on limited information. Haven't seen any evidence that these reads are better than random yet though?)
# 48 - hassling wufwugy
# 81 - telling the village to lynch Pascal
# 95 - happy to switch to an inactive wagon, bolds Fulksy
# 99 - gives me a lesson in wolf hunting. I think we need to remember this:

its alot easier for a wolf to cut back their posts and hope to slip by

# 104 - more wolf hunting instruction.
# 136 - more heat on Fulksy
# 137 - air
# 144 - calls out Ongbonga re not wanting to lynch Fulksy (turns out Ongabonga is right). Names Rong and Jackvance as suspects.
# 145 - calls out rong re comprehension. (Rong defends as having just woken up)
# 174 - talks about Jyms' defence re wifi down, supports possible link between Gator and Jyms
# 175 - tells Pascal that he is a wolf (correct). Still goes with lynching the inactive
# 192 - says that i just seem like I'm trying. Argues that everyone should post more
# 212 - just lynch Fulksy already. Names Pascal (wolf), Rong (?), Jackvance (?), Gator (?), and Bigred (?) as suspects.

Day 2

# 313 - says don't lynch dtb or boog cos nothing wolfy about them. Doesn't buy the arguments against them. Lists Ongabonga (?), Hoopy (?), and Pascal (wolf) as suspects. Bolds Hoopy.
# 315 - disagrees with me, arguing that we shouldn't try to infer too much from the TLR night kill by the wolves. Seems to add Bigred (?) to suspect list.
# 323 - Lynch Ongabonga. Rates Hoopy >> Ongabonga
# 333 - switches lynch vote to Pascal (wolf)
# 345 - states we have to kill Pascal
# 351 - argues that being more or less active (re Dropthebanana and Nightgizmo) than in previous games isn't a great tell. Doesn't agree there is strong evidence for Boog690. Still ok with lynching Hoopy, contradicts his comment (315) re the TLR kill connection
# 353 - rule clarification re out of game content
# 363 & 364 - easier to quote than to summarise

the cases for jyms/bigred are all built on nothing and the case for boog is misinformed

ongbonga is a better lynch than bigred (they both add same value to village winning, both play erratically)

pascal is a better lynch than boog. like pascal said, keith made a very sherlock holmes-esque circumstantial read (probably coincidence stuff most of the time), but combined with the other stuff, pascal makes more sense. hes trying to seem not competent enough. cmon keith you can switch your vote especially if youre encouraging the vig to shoot pascal

hoopy is a better lynch than jyms. a wagon got pointed at jyms because of his low initial activity, but thats been somewhat explained by him referencing out-of-game content. jyms shouldnt have a wagon now, but he can only make excuses for so long. hoopy has done noticably suspicious stuff (his posts havent been as constructive mostly). this post http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2127390 might seem like a joke, but my senses tell me a wolf makes this joke way more often than a villager

im still on pascal

also id rather lynch someone from [xtr, rong, jackvance, gator, bikes] than [jyms,bigred, wuf, dtb, daven, aubrey, gizmo, keith]

# 393 - talks about the risk of making cases based on uncertain premises in defence of an allegation from Keith that he is likely wolf. Suggests Boog690 may be a good future lynch
# 394 - calls bikes more wolfy than lazy. Doesn't accuse though.
# 395 - argues to ignore Ongbonga cos noise etc
# 396 - more support for a Pascal (wolf) lynch
# 410 - argues that Boog690's choice of inactive Fulksy vs inactive Jyms is irrelevant, although agrees taht timing is suspicious. Points out that Jyms and Boog690 are both werewolf vets
# 411 - calls out Ongbonga for air again
# 415 - more 'Pascal, you are wolf'
# 416 - comment to XTR1000 (villager) re his defence
# 446 -

so jyms is now in the lead with 5 (hoopy 3, pascal 4, dtb 3 (but gizmo hasnt voted and he liked dtb)). if jyms is a wolf, the votes are close enough that it might only take 2 of them switching to save their wolf buddy. if there arent vote changes, he shouldnt be a wolf.

so whats our strategy to counter this? narrow it down to 2? if we decide as a village to do this the wolves would try very hard to have 2 villagers on the chopping block and hopefully their efforts would give us plenty of info if we come up empty on the lynch

# 448 - Suggests that Jyms is likely wolf (i think?). States that anyone moving off Jyms at this stage is suspect. Bolds Jyms.
# 454 - lost me a bit. Argues that if Jyms is innocent then look at [Aubrey, Dropthebanana, Nightgizmo, Keith, Gabe]
# 455 - if Jyms is innocent then look at Bikes or Dropthebanana
# 457 - lists 3 cases 1= jyms wolf, 2 = a bandwagoner = wolf, 3 = 3 or 4 of [Pascal, Jyms, Hoopy, Dropthebanana] innocent
# 460 - Concludes that Rong is thinking like a wolf. Suggests that specials target Rong
# 464 - says that suggestion (464) was rash, but conclusion not. States that we gain a lot of information if Jyms turns out wolf, suggests that Jyms' absence is argument against him being a special
# 476 - moves to Dropthebanana wagon based on various reasons.
# 490 - moves back to Pascal after Dropthebanana outs as seer
# 492 - tells Dropthebanana to lynch Pascal so as not to let us down
# 494 - lol comment re what if Pascal = vig
# 498 - comment re Dropthebanana's claimed lookup
# 500 - tells people not to lynch Dropthebanana
# 505 - wonder what will happen etc, who is browsing etc
# 515

why would villager wufwugy still vote for dtb
why would bigred not switch

# 524 - Veracity of seer out irrelevant, it gives us huge info regardless. Massive mistake to lynch Dropthebana.
# 534 - counts the lynch votes being hit, notes that Bigred rescinded his vote but too late
# 543 - comments on how quickly Pascal bandwagon took off. Suggests vig be careful wth his bullet.
# 544 - we should keep talking until thread is locked!
# 549 - vig, be careful!


gabe gets killed.

[wufwugy]

I bolded him after seeing he bolded me, I mean I know I am a villager, so better him than me.

You would never think this way as a villager. You didn't get the nickname JVP for nothing. You're sick good at finding wolves but not that good at playing one.

I have done no such thing. I only had to take an intermission when a wagon was starting to be trained on me. I've also already stated on this page where I think we should go look for wolves. And, as you say, with nearly two days left, how do you come to the conclusion that I stopped?

Because you did. You abandoned the Bigred vote and the Bigred/Boog connection you just to bold Jyms because you were scared of Ong and me on your wagon. Of course, I would have abandoned the Bigred/Boog connection as well since the sooner you do that, the sooner everybody else forgets that you said you think Boog is the seer

And funny enough, when I was wolf-hunting, you called it "trying to appear to be wolf hunting". So I'm damned if I do, and damned if I don't in your eyes.

You're damned if you don't do it authentically. Which you haven't been. Your rationales have been very weak

Yet you switched your vote to jyms anyway. Then ong makes his post, to which Daven, a new player, replied he saw there was a lot omitted and he didn't buy it, but suddenly you're sure I'm a wolf? After the whole DTB outing thing you've been acting very fishy wuf.

My bolds today have been JV then Jyms then JV again. Your argument is invalid

[OngBonga]

daven, I really hope you play more often.

[rong]

Amazing how you have a thought and spit it out into the thread without stopping to think and corroborate your facts.

lol Keith

[Hoopy]

Only skimmed the last 1.5 pages but nice work by daven/Ong for some seriously good posts. I had some stuff to do which couldn't be ignored yesterday/today but free for the entire day now.

My one observation right now is that the jyms wagon was super fast which leans towards him being a villager, not conclusive though.

[jackvance]

The difference is that I've been explaining my thought processes all along. You put up a great defense of why Jyms is a villager (which was the same as my initial "lock villager" assessment), but your explanations for why he's a wolf now are merely "he's fishy" and "he's on my list"

Interesting distinction when all you said was "There's just something about the way Jyms has been participating while also not participating." - pretty vague and weak and I don't see it as all that different from "there is something fishy". The only one to make a solid case for Jyms was boog, who also curiously enough tied him in with you.

You would never think this way as a villager. You didn't get the nickname JVP for nothing. You're sick good at finding wolves but not that good at playing one.

Because you did. You abandoned the Bigred vote and the Bigred/Boog connection you just to bold Jyms because you were scared of Ong and me on your wagon. Of course, I would have abandoned the Bigred/Boog connection as well since the sooner you do that, the sooner everybody else forgets that you said you think Boog is the seer

You're damned if you don't do it authentically. Which you haven't been. Your rationales have been very weak

My bolds today have been JV then Jyms then JV again. Your argument is invalid

That's quite a misrepresentation of my play. Funny enough, whenever I have seen someone praise my WW ability like this in the past it has always been a wolf trying to set me up for a lynch. The last time it was wolf rilla I believe. Granted, the situation is a bit different now, and I have a bunch of villager tells on wuf that make it hard for me to see him as a wolf.

Let me add that I am certain there is atleast one wolf scating along on the sidelines a la BR or Aubry, or to reference a previous game, the way crazzvette outlived her partners in crime.

[rong]

Just as an FYI, I've not bothered giving my opinion on the latest happenings because without reading all of jv's posts throughout the entire of the period ong has referred to I can't give it any context. Ong makes a good case but I guess its just lazy to take it at face value.

[Hoopy]

I'll put bikes on the villager pile for now after reading his last few posts, far more like the villager bikes I know.

Going by the theory that wolves like to blend in, I'd say Gator + Gizmo have the most forgettable posts right now, only personal opinion though.

[OngBonga]

Ok, assuming jack and banana are wolves, I think last wolf is going to be one of bikes, aubrey or bigred.

Here's a flurry of posts...
(some snipped or removed entirely to reduce wall size)

I'll join the banana wagon again. lynch banana

the only person i find actually suspicious through posting is jyms as he's usually absurdly thick skinned and not so this game so i kept my vote as jyms.

I'm going vote jyms as well

Having a look through some more posts for some reads.

Jyms seems to have slipped by unnoticed pretty much. His excuse is pretty weak - "Fwiw, I'm just staying out of the fray a little for now, I think last time I brought too much heat on myself early and want to play more Bigred style and get some endgame play for a change". Seems like a great cover for avoiding posting anything, avoiding any heat knowing there's other more inactive players and staying out of trouble. Will also mean it's harder to get reads on him in late game because he'll have way less posts than anyone else. He also here: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...0-post118.html that lynching inactives was good then decides to go inactive, wtf? He loves confrontation and arguing, why would he avoid it? Looks to me like he's realised that he can stay under the radar as inactives aren't getting lynched.

Bikes has been pretty inactive, says he has the flu (which is probs true) but he's contributed very little and just because he has the flu doesn't mean he can't be a wolf. He's used other people's reads and said he would post thoughts after the Pats game but didn't, just agreed with something wuf said. When I did something like that it's apparently wolfy which must make bikes look wolfy. He's also gone for lynches by saying stuff like "something doesnt sit right with jyms so lets lynch jyms" which is pretty meh.

Jackvance has made a low number of posts but at least they're mainly useful, but would like to see more posting from him

I'm finding more reasons to not be suspicious of people rather than reasons to be. Definitely a tough roster.

I like the fact that Gabe is using his resources to defend against illogical reasoning rather than lead bandwagon crusades. He played the voice of reason last game and I was for sure he had something up his sleeve since it's such a non standard way to play. (Especially since I was on the receiving end of his bolds)

Wolves tend to use the majority of their arguments against people and not for them.

Along with what I've mentioned about Keith, Pascal, and Daven, I find it odd that Jyms isn't entertaining more thoughts out loud.

I've only played with him once but he was right in the thick of things pointing fingers, making arguments, etc. Then he said he was going to remain a high frequency poster, but is lacking there.**

I think he froze up and is playing a more neutral role now that he pulled wolf since he caught so much shit for his previous play style.

I find this information the most damning.

Lynch Jyms

** I realize this is a pot/kettle statement coming from me. I'm not criticizing his lack of posting just noting an abnormality.

Vote Count 2.04
Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(3): Rong, Pascal, Ongbonga
Jyms(4): Bikes, Wufwugy, Aubrey, Dropthebanana
Pascal(4): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy, Xtr1000

I'm almost ready to switch to jymz. I like it more than a pascal vote.

Look at those trying to shift the lynch away from banana and pascal and towards jyms. In fact, if it turns out jack is a villager, then there's probably both remaining wolves trying to protect pascal and banana here.

[aubreymcfate]

i'll admit i was leaning heavily towards jyms but that's because the whole boog/jyms thing that happened between them was making me focus on that the most. that coupled with jym's inactivity made him the most solid lynch in my mind.

tbh even looking back at pascal's posts, nothing jumps out as super incriminating (to me, personally - although in light of him being a wolf, yes his posts take on a slightly different air now, and i have a better idea of who "wolf pascal" is), so i kind of kept out of that. i figured if the people who know pascal well enough think he's a wolf, he'll get lynched anyway. and he did. perhaps i should align myself with the majority next time to avoid looking like a wolf, but i would argue that that in itself could also be wolfy. i like to stick to my convictions.

i will be honestly shocked if jv is not a wolf. his defenses are well-worded, but i'm just not buying it. it's hard for me to pinpoint why his posts seem more well-calculated than authentic to me, but they just do.

i agree that the wolf is probably someone skating by. personally i had my eye on bikes the most, but it could be someone more active but not a prominent voice, like gizmo and gator. maybe bigred too.

k back to doing work and will check back again later. it's easier to focus in the office. i overestimated my ability to give a shit about life once returning to my best last night lol.

[aubreymcfate]

*to my bed.
(this is not an important correction, but that would have irritated me all day if i left it)

[OngBonga]

perhaps i should align myself with the majority next time to avoid looking like a wolf, but i would argue that that in itself could also be wolfy. i like to stick to my convictions.

Yeah you're right, sheeping people because you don't want to stand by your own convictions is indeed wolfy, and will get you more heat. Looking wolfy is unavoidable at time, I mean look at me, dropping pascal like a stone after keith's skype read, and I went for xtr before pascal after banana's claim. If jack turns out to be a villager I'm pretty fucked, but it's the chance we take to try and win.

fwiw I think you're least likely out of the three I name above, or it's possible all three of you are villagers and the last wolf is hiding very well.

[OngBonga]

Looking at the voting pattern from before this flurry that I posted above, and I'm happy to add wuf and gator to bigred, bikes and aubrey as potential wolf trying to protect a buddy.

Vote Count 2.02
Hoopy(2): Wufwugy, bigred
Bigred(1): Boog690
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(2): Rong, ongbonga
Jyms(1): Bikes
Pascal(2): Daven, Gabe
Keith(1): xtr1000
[SIZE=1]

lynch bigred

Of those 3 people JV is the only one I considered to be remotely wolfy.

I feel like the spread of votes right now means we're close to a wolf.

lynch Pascal

Note - this is what I mean by hoopy being a very good if he's a wolf. Guy is a near lock villager if banana and jack turn out wolves. This pascal vote is at a crucial time, whichever wagon takes hold from here is likely to be successful.

sold.

lynch jyms

As for now I think I like a lynch hoopy the best.

For now,
lynch hoopy

I honestly think we're looking at jack + banana, and, listed in order of wolfiest, one of...
[bigred wuf gator bikes aubrey].

[Keith]

rescind Jyms

i'm working on something which sort of echoes some of your thoughts ongie but i'm going back looking at some facts first. I also don't like a Jack lynch.more to come

[jackvance]

Ong I'm not pleased with you parroting what I've been saying all along. Not cool man. Not cool. First you post the list of (br, aubrey, bikes) which I put forth as my 3 main suspects, then you put BR ahead as your main suspect, same as me.

[OngBonga]

I'm parroting you jack?

I honestly think we're looking at jack + banana, and, listed in order of wolfiest, one of...
[bigred wuf gator bikes aubrey].

Show me where you've said something along these lines, and I'll make the most grovelling apology you'll ever see.

[OngBonga]

Also, why would you be annoyed even if I was parroting you? Why wouldn't you breathe a sigh of relief and point out that we're actually thinking along the same lines when it comes to others? Here's a chance for you to show me why you're not a wolf, to show me who we should lynch instead of you, but instead you bitch at me. You're failing to convince me that I'm wrong about you jack.

[OngBonga]

then you put BR ahead as your main suspect, same as me.

Just so you know, bigred is far from my main suspect. He's way behind you and banana. I just find bigred the most likely 4th, but it could be anyone really.

[jackvance]

Also, why would you be annoyed even if I was parroting you? Why wouldn't you breathe a sigh of relief and point out that we're actually thinking along the same lines when it comes to others? Here's a chance for you to show me why you're not a wolf, to show me who we should lynch instead of you, but instead you bitch at me. You're failing to convince me that I'm wrong about you jack.

Eh relax, I thought you'd be able to tell I was saying this with some playful ribbing.

[bikes]

til egobonga gets super super defensive at even the slightest provocation

oh wait i already knew this from the reputation boxes

[bikes]

i still stand behind my vote

[OngBonga]

Ok I'll give you the benefit of the doubt there. It didn't read that way to me, but I just got back from the pub.

I'm looking forward to keith's next post. I'd like to know why he doesn't like a jack lynch.

[OngBonga]

til egobonga gets super super defensive at even the slightest provocation

oh wait i already knew this from the reputation boxes

Took you ages to take a swing for me bikes. Were you just waiting until I named you as a potential suspect?

[wufwugy]

JV is always a wolf here

Nobody has paid attention to Rong except Bikes, and I think Bikes might be right. Rong has been playing rather awkwardly, and the more we delve into the roles, the less others (like Hoopy) look like they could be wolves

[wufwugy]

People need to start putting some votes on JV

[wufwugy]

I mean, jeez, he said he thinks Boog is the seer. Does anybody here really think JV would say that as a villager? He messed up there because the fact that if he points at who he thinks is the seer he would be helping the wolves find a nom target was not something he was contemplating because he is indeed himself a wolf.

He's done a dozen different things that he would do as a wolf, but calling Boog the seer is probably my favorite

[wufwugy]

Later today I'm gonna get my drink on and completely figure this game out i.e. find the last wolf. We already know DTB and JV are wolves. I'm much better at this game when drinking

[Keith]

post 468

Vote Count 2.04
Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690
Boog(1): Jyms
Dropthebanana(2): Rong, Pascal
Jyms(7): Bikes, Wufwugy, Aubrey, Dropthebanana, Keith, Nightgizmo, Gabe
Pascal(4): Daven, Hoopy, Xtr1000, Ongbonga

Not voting: No one.

Deadline is in 3hrs, 45min. With 18 alive it takes 10 to lynch!

post 470 8 minutes later Jyms shows up and posts.

post 472

rescind jyms lynch dtb

note who else is on DTB already, jyms is heading for a death and wugy hops off with no reasoning for his switch. The other next highest vote is Pascal - a wolf jumping on his puts one vote between them , far too dangerous for team wolf if any others jump off jyms.

post 473

fwiw, i actually believe jyms when he says he wouldn't skate by as a wolf. while i also think he would tone it down as a wolf, that's a little different. im still okay with lynching him, but im kinda okay with lynching everybody who has been close so far

wugy doesn't want anyone else jumping off . if he's ok with lynching jyms why is he jumping ship himself. SHit hits he fan though and DTB is forced to reveal. SIgnificant that wugy comes as the one looked up . AS gator said wolf seers usually give a villager as lookups , but surely egowuf would think that he could pull it off as a wolf.

I wasn't pleading for my life as I'm done by the time Day 3 gets here regardless.

I just wanted to get my Wuf look up out before the 10th vote hit and the thread was locked.

post 521

i have an hour and am at comp now and will be able to decide. ive been trying to figure out why dtb would say he looked me up. something about that rubs me the wrong way, but i cant put my finger on it. i also naturally do not believe special outs, so im trying to find out if there's a reason dtb is obviously lying

wuf trying to reinforce his villager status questioning why wolf is naming him?

post 528

dont hit vote ten with pascal guys

trying to save pascal and wants to make sure DTB dies and give him villager status.

post 535 gabe has just posted that 10 votes had been reached and wuf comes out with

i think ive figured out that dtb is lying.

his wagon went bonkers in a very short time and then he miraculously showed up, but he hasn't been that active otherwise. he says hes unsure how to play special, but i dont believe that because hes a vet who has played wolf a lot and not knowing how to play special wouldn't be that much of a factor. i dont like that he looked me up because i feel the seer doesnt do that this time.

but most importantly, i think seer dtb would have more of an opinion about who's who

looks like dtb is the wolf and pascal could be too. or it could just be that dtb didnt bold pascal because hes not the seer, not becuase he didnt want to bold a fellow wolf

miraculous he 's gone from not killing pascal to pascal is now dead and about to be confirmed a wolf and now wuf thinks pascal is a wolf . WHAT


lynch wuf wugy

and i haven't even got into todays action . think about it who's been trying to target people , getting wagons going on JV/jyms low posters , dtb posts boog as a wolf ...they are seer hunting like crazy.

[wufwugy]

oh this is gonna be fun

[Keith]

yeah . make a start why you made no reference at all to the pascal skype post when pascals role was unknown and didn't realise it had happened. A wolf isn't gonna want to draw attention to that scenario and you completely avoided it. Now today you claim fake outrage and try to get me lynched . ONGs JV post that you thought was legit wolf hunting must have looked perfect for you wolves e3choing the argument that you've been trying to make.

[OngBonga]

Why not jack then keith? Because wuf is swinging for him? Wuf can do that to a fellow wolf, if you think wuf is wolf it's exactly what he did with his pascal push right off the bat.

I can see wuf being a wolf, but I don't feel like he's our best shot today.

[Keith]

because we still have a seer and wolves need to find him , thats their priority and why risk a fellow wolf now they have 2 identified.

[wufwugy]

I have no response for Keith right now because his convoluted ideas are not ever easy to respond to (because they're so strange), but I will be fully vindicated when JV and DTB are lynched and found to be wolves.


Also this trope that I'm wacky enough to gat my own wolf team needs to die. Remember that there's a seer here, so whenever a wolf starts blasting his teammates, he just ends up getting looked up then he loses. There is only one person on FTR crazy enough to think gatting his own team is a good idea, and that's Keith. Everything else is rather straightforward: the villagers are always the ones who do the most to get find the wolves, and the wolves are always the ones who do the least

[jackvance]

Am I alone in feeling wuf is getting desperate here. I mean look.

JV is always a wolf here

Nobody has paid attention to Rong except Bikes, and I think Bikes might be right. Rong has been playing rather awkwardly, and the more we delve into the roles, the less others (like Hoopy) look like they could be wolves

People need to start putting some votes on JV

Might aswell be begging. The fishiest thing for me, apart from him going afk at a crucial time alonside dtb, was his switch to jyms, putting in the 6th vote of 8 required, once that bw took off. After having called jyms a confirmed villager. And while I switched because my ass was on the line, he didn't have any such incentive. Then lateron he had the gall to accuse me of having no solid reasoning, saying he explained himself along the way. But as I pointed out above, it was just as flimsy as saying "well he looks fishy now".

I mean, jeez, he said he thinks Boog is the seer. Does anybody here really think JV would say that as a villager? He messed up there because the fact that if he points at who he thinks is the seer he would be helping the wolves find a nom target was not something he was contemplating because he is indeed himself a wolf.

He's done a dozen different things that he would do as a wolf, but calling Boog the seer is probably my favorite

I already had my vote out for BR at the time, and when ong pointed out DTB could very well be seer hunting boog. I tried to follow that reasoning and see what I could come up with. And I very explicitly called it hypothetical. How often have I called things hypothetical? Never. Because it was just based on a loose assumption that the wolves had reason to believe boog was the seer, and see where that could lead me. But immediately after that boog made a post going after jyms and wuf. That negated my hypothesis so I retracted it. But wuffy can't let go. Fact is, during and after the whole DTB thing, wuf has been doing way more fishy stuff than I ever did (see boog and keith's posts).

I was going to suggest the seer look up wuf but after seeing his recent posts I've had it.

rescind jyms

lynch wuf

[BooG690]

So we're spreading out on three wagons now? Jack is my least favorite wagon with wuf and jyms being my obvious favorites (in that order). I pushed for a jyms lynch thinking others would be more gunshy with a wufwugy lynch. Maybe I was wrong but right now the VC is Jyms 4, Jack 3, and Wufwugy 2 (I think). I'd have no problem switching to Wuf obviously but that changes nothing (given that jyms would still be "in the lead"). I'll wait to see the others' willingness to lynch wufwugy.

[Hoopy]

lynch jackvance

[Hoopy]

I don't get how people consider wuf a target today, yeah he's not a lock villager or anything but we can do better.

[BooG690]

Oh, and if anybody wants a better written post of PRECISELY what Keith said, here it is: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...4-post671.html

Oh, and this one sums up the Wuf hopping on DTB thang:

Oh, and Wufwugy's initial switch from jyms to DTB because he went for the lesser wagon even though he had been suspicious of Pascal, too. Super wolf move to go to the less threatening fellow wolf wagon.

[BooG690]

I don't get how people consider wuf a target today, yeah he's not a lock villager or anything but we can do better.

Explain how we can do better? What entails "doing better?" Have you actually read through and seen Wuf's actions during the whole seer outing charade? You say we can do better with almost no knowledge of the thread. Perhaps YOU can do better.

[OngBonga]

I'd sooner lynch wuf than jyms. I mean seriously, the wolves must expect jyms to die when banana claims, and that claim is not going to save banana for long, so they'd be better off letting banana die and hope everyone forgets about jyms.

But jack >>>>> wuf, I don't want to move wagons just yet.

[BooG690]

FWIW, I'm most likely going to miss the deadline action since it'll be Saturday morning here and I may or may not be drunk. Let's decide on the best course of action in the next 14 hours or so. Kthx?

Wuf > jyms >>> JV. I'd have no reservations going with Ong to JV though.

[BooG690]

Actually, no, I would have a reservation. Wuf's pleading to get JV lynched makes me not want to bold JV.

[OngBonga]

Ok, everyone who thinks jyms is a wolf...

Put yourself in banana's shoes. You're a wolf about to die. You notice that next highest wagon is jyms, and after that pascal is vulnerable too, with a lot of people already suspicious of him. If jyms is a wolf too, do you really fake claim seer? Isn't it better to claim regular townie and hope to save yourself by not claiming seer? That claim kills either pascal or jyms, and we can see pascal is a wolf. Why do it if jyms is a wolf? Why kill a wolf who could potentially talk himself out of lynch next day? At the very least, if jyms is a wolf too, then banana gives us a bullshit wolf claim on him and that would have us asking questions for days.

If banana is a wolf, jyms is villager. So if you think jyms is a wolf, then you must think that banana is honest, right?

Stop this jyms nonsense please.

[wufwugy]

Oh, and if anybody wants a better written post of PRECISELY what Keith said, here it is: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...4-post671.html

Oh, and this one sums up the Wuf hopping on DTB thang:

What do you mean the DTB thang? Go over my posts beginning with the very first of Day 2. Hoopy and DTB were my two main picks for wolves. I didn't explain the DTB thing much because him acting weird is not something I noticed exclusively in this thread. Unlike Keith, I'm not running my mouth about things that I don't consider entirely fair play

Have you actually read through and seen Wuf's actions during the whole seer outing charade?

Have you? If I'm a wolf, what I did there makes no sense whatsoever unless I'm scrambling to protect Pascal against the real seer. But if I wasn't and DTB is the real seer, then I'm already cleared since he said he looked me up. Either way I'm okay with it because merely according to how things happened, I'm always a villager and DTB is always a wolf. You remember how you said I like to throw shit around and claim godmode whenever I hit? Well me doing my best to not get fooled by DTB's highly suspicious outing would be exactly that, but this time, real godmode. Actually, it's not godmode because his outing was quite easily to see as a fake, yet magically I'm in the wrong for being the most fervent at pointing that out?

Do I need to again point out the very first post in the whole game pointing the finger at Pascal was from me and I pointed out a very basic style flaw of his? If I was a wolf, I would NEVER say that to him in the game thread, not even to try to later come back and claim I never would. It would be very bad play and I would always just tell him in wolfchat to fix his shit because he was doing the same things like he did in last game

If you gonna come at me, come correct

[jyms]

Well when all in who is going to give the village a better shot at stringing together wolves. If JV, Wuf or I get lynched then who proves to bring down more wolves through ties. I think JV is an obvious choice with the seer still floating out there and the wolves taking out someone this night is pretty tell tale no?

[BooG690]

You remember how you said I like to throw shit around and claim godmode whenever I hit? Well me doing my best to not get fooled by DTB's highly suspicious outing would be exactly that, but this time, real godmode. Actually, it's not godmode because his outing was quite easily to see as a fake, yet magically I'm in the wrong for being the most fervent at pointing that out?

Competent wolves make that move every fucking time knowing there is little chance of anyone actually bolding DTB and, on the offchance that DTB DOES get lynched, they can point out that they never believed DTB's shit. You're not special in not believing DTB's shit. Nobody really believed him but he couldn't be lynched. You just wanted villager cred, wolf.

[jackvance]

I want to reiterate the most damning thing in my eyes. Wuf had been making wolf comments about me all day long and had his vote on me. Yet when the jyms bw took off, he suddenly switched. That makes no sense for a villager wuf who had previously called jyms a confirmed villager. He lost his cool. He slipped up.

[wufwugy]

Competent wolves make that move every fucking time knowing there is little chance of anyone actually bolding DTB and, on the offchance that DTB DOES get lynched, they can point out that they never believed DTB's shit. You're not special in not believing DTB's shit. Nobody really believed him but he couldn't be lynched. You just wanted villager cred, wolf.

No, competent wolves keep quiet because they don't want to get seer'd. The last time we had a weird fake out, we still lynched him and were right

[wufwugy]

I want to reiterate the most damning thing in my eyes. Wuf had been making wolf comments about me all day long and had his vote on me. Yet when the jyms bw took off, he suddenly switched. That makes no sense for a villager wuf who had previously called jyms a confirmed villager. He lost his cool. He slipped up.

Oh you mean based on the same exact line that you did except you abandoned your super read on the bigred/boog connection just to keep jyms wagon ahead of yours?

[jackvance]

Oh you mean based on the same exact line that you did except you abandoned your super read on the bigred/boog connection just to keep jyms wagon ahead of yours?

Because I was getting a wagon trained on me. You had no reasonable incentive at all.

[wufwugy]

Because I was getting a wagon trained on me. You had no reasonable incentive at all.

Reasonable incentive for what? I bolded you first

[wufwugy]

BTW you didn't even have much of a wagon on you. You were simply afraid of the two most active villagers, ong and me, being on your wagon and then you played into the narrative I tried to construct of you versus Jyms

[jackvance]

Reasonable incentive for what?

Wtf? To switch to jyms ofcourse, what are we talking about here.

[bigred]

Jesus that was a lot of reading.

It's hard for me to digest everything but my key takeaways are:

- Boog is most likely a wolf
- I'm less convinced jyms is a wolf but still suspicious
- I'm ready to bold JV the second I finish this post
- Besides me, the other people lying low are gator, hoopy, and bikes. Possibly aubrey. I don't recall others. I think there's a good chance a wolf is in this list. Past jokes aside, Gator would be my favorite.
- Not sure what to think of Wuf but the recent attention on his suspicious play seems slightly founded
- Ong seems like a villager

Need to go back to page 8 to review, on the ipad

[bigred]

Just finished reading over the thread and my thoughts are as follows:

Bikes and Aubrey seem to be jumping in randomly and not adding a ton of value. One of them could easily be a wolf.

Bigred has been Bigred EXCEPT when there was heat on him. Then he went away with his usual meme - "I dare you to lynch me" defense and started to post content. Once the heat left so did he. Fairly large suspect.

Keith seems like a villager to me and I doubt he would try to pull that much FPS. If it gets to endgame and he is still here we can re-visit.

Wuf is wuf and probably a villager because although we like to think a fake outed seer will confirm a fellow wolf as a villager it rarely happens. If that is correct you have to wonder why wolf DTB would out him as a villager because he knows that it may put heat on wuf.

Jyms keeps playing the "got a lot going on" defense, but then gets REAL defensive when the heat comes his way. On the other hand would he really have kept that up when the heat was also on him yesterday? I am 50/50 on Jyms but think he may be the best option for today just so we can see what happens tonight lynch jyms

Don't have a great read on Boog or Onga and I don't like that as it could mean one is a wolf playing a good game.

Odd you can weigh in on all the happenings yet somehow overlook (more likely avoid) JV. I think if JV turns up a wolf we need to look more closely at gator.

Other ldos I didn't mention in last post
- daven is most likely a villager
- DTB, lol can't believe i forgot him. I've ruled him instawolf and just put him out of my mind.

[bigred]

Oh, I think Keith is likely a villager

[bigred]

lynch jv

[bigred]

Just a heads up, going to a wedding this weekend and I've been working insane hours during the week. I don't expect this to change anytime soon. Probably puts me in the liability column regardless of role.

[Keith]

its really worth people reading through from the end of where i got to with my posts withthe premise of wuf as a wolf.HAd made lots of copy pastes and lost it. Wuf is seer hunting all through by trying to start wagons on lots of people , mainly people with low post counts and one recent interchange has been interesting when he pointed at hoopy, then retracted it and now hoopy has come in and bolded Jack putting jack on 4 jyms on 3 and wuf on 2.

Hoopy's vote means that we need 5 on wuf for him to be lynched . Also look how the votes went down i vote wuf ,ong says he can see wuf as a wolf, jack votes wuf , boog says that he is happy to switch to wuf but jyms would still be in the lead. Then hoopy comes in and makes Jack 4 jyms 3 wuf 2. should boog or ong swap to wuf it will still leave Jack in the lead. Is this the wolves getting desperate? revealing hoopy as the final wolf? With wuf pointing at the low post count players why did he ignore hoopy up til now?

[bigred]

Jesus that was a lot of reading.

It's hard for me to digest everything but my key takeaways are:

- Boog is most likely NOT a wolf
- I'm less convinced jyms is a wolf but still suspicious
- I'm ready to bold JV the second I finish this post
- Besides me, the other people lying low are gator, hoopy, and bikes. Possibly aubrey. I don't recall others. I think there's a good chance a wolf is in this list. Past jokes aside, Gator would be my favorite.
- Not sure what to think of Wuf but the recent attention on his suspicious play seems slightly founded
- Ong seems like a villager

Need to go back to page 8 to review, on the ipad

shit, messed that up. I meant boog is probably a villager

[Keith]

jack on 5 now and could well be in bed, im off to bed in a few minutes,wuf 2 jyms 3 , ongie may also be in bed, boog can you swap to take the pressure off jv.Also remember DTB isn't on JV yet either so he can nail a lynch. there isn't much wriggle room with the votes at the moment. DTB can't jump on jack yet , he'll only jump on to nail the lynch .

an assumed DTB vote has jack on 6 with two more needed to guarantee a JV lynch , one more probably condems JV as well under the vote tie rules bear .

[Keith]

bear shouldn't be at the end of that post

[aubreymcfate]

lynch jv