WW 2013 Edition: The Conglomerate

[jyms]

Didn't he at some point say "it's ok if you lynch me" or something like that? I thought he did.

FYP

[jyms]

You say this yet you still have me bolded.

I have you bolded too which is interesting that he says my and Wufs name as options When we both have tried to start wagons on you.

[JKDS]

Vote Count 4.03

Boog(3): Wuf, Jyms, Gator
Jyms(2): bikes, Daven
Nightgizmo(2); Hoopy, Ong
Wuf(1):,Keith
Gator(2): Nightgizmo, Jackvance


Not voting:, Aubrey, Bigred, boog

Deadline is in 25 hours, 12 minutes. With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch!

The movie "My Cousin Vinny" actually does a great job portraying general Criminal Procedure.

Edit: Thanks for the pms about my vote count (vc) errors!

[jyms]

Boog690 - wolf?
Hoopy - wolf?
Bikes - claimed seer
Wufwugy - likely villager
Ongbonga - likely villager
Jackvance - likely vig
Daven - wolf?
Gator - wolf?
Aubrey - wolf?
NightGizmo - wolf?
Keith - likely villager (bikes)
Bigred - likely villager (bikes)
Jyms - Town


This is where I'm at right now and I will bold any likely wolf on this day until the night phase plays out.

[wufwugy]

Jyms - Town

Why would Jyms say this? We don't use Mafia nomenclature here. Only JKDS and Ong have due to playing on a different forum

[jyms]

I thought it was a cool use when I heard others say it. I'm not planning on going pro WW if that's what you're thinking.

[daven]

As frustrating as wuf is I think we need to put pressure on the remaining low content players like bigred, bikes, daven and gizmo.

gator - i posted saying other players should or could be on that list, you asked who specifically.

The players i was thinking of are Jyms (although he is posting more now) and Aubrey (who hasn't really posted much all game). I'm surprised that you didn't identify either of these players as 'low content'

[jyms]

Good point about Aubrey. I also notice he mentioned what are now 2 known villagers and one that posted more than him

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...osted&t=192759

[daven]

earlier (post 1281) i posted these as my reads:

Boog690 - ?
Hoopy - likely villager
Bikes - ?
Jyms - likely wolf
Wufwugy - likely confusing villager
Ongbonga - likely villager
Jackvance - likely vig
Daven - villager
Gator - ?
Aubrey - likely villager
NightGizmo - ?
Keith - likely confused villager
Bigred - ?

The seer outing from Bikes is interesting. I think there is approximately zero chance that he is a wolf because if he fake outs as seer now then the wolves lose.
So, he's either seer or a villager fake outing as seer. There's too much risk to the village for him to be likely to be fake outing as a villager
=> Bikes is pretty much always seer here.

So, i'll update my list, basically his seer outing plus lookups have resulted in two of the players i was suspicious of being removed from my wolf suspect list (Bikes, Bigred), and confirmed one of the players i thought to be likely villager (Keith).

As it stands now my reads are:

Boog690 - ?
Hoopy - likely villager
Bikes - villager (seer)
Jyms - likely wolf
Wufwugy - likely confusing villager
Ongbonga - ? (leaning villager)
Jackvance - likely vig
Daven - villager
Gator - ?
Aubrey - ? (still leaning villager)
NightGizmo - ?
Keith - villager (seer lookup)
Bigred - villager (seer lookup)

I'm still not sure on Boog690/Gator/Nightgizmo
I'm a little less sure about Aubrey (mostly due to the interplay with Gator) and Ongbonga now - but i think we'll learn a lot tonight

nothing associated with bikes' lookups has changed my view on Jyms, i find it noteworthy that Bikes is voting to lynch him

[daven]

i can't edit my post above obviously, but maybe it's more like Bikes is 100% villager, and 85% of the time he's seer

[daven]

My top two votes for a lynch today are wuf and Jyms.

where is your vote?

[jyms]

earlier (post 1281)
nothing associated with bikes' lookups has changed my view on Jyms, i find it noteworthy that Bikes is voting to lynch him

This means nothing since he never looked me up.

There are two wolves left, and there has to be something that ties them together. I have been reading a ton of past posts near the lynches and also trying to find a connection to people killed at night to the wolves but I can't find anything yet only random reasons one or another could be a wolf.

[daven]

Good point about Aubrey. I also notice he mentioned what are now 2 known villagers and one that posted more than him

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...osted&t=192759

lol I'm fifth highest poster?!

[daven]

This means nothing since he never looked me up.

noted. But he is a smart villager who still seems to think that you are a good lynch option.

[OngBonga]

I can't be bothered to read up until I know if jack is wolf or vig.

[wufwugy]

every other reason ive had for not wanting to lynch jyms has since been quashed (like thinking he may be the seer or thinking his explanation for why he was so inactive was legit). the only one remaining is the pascal dtb jyms wagon dynamic. would somebody explain to me how jyms is a wolf there? unless we're missing something he's only a wolf there due to sheer incompetence of the team, but that has also happened in the past so....

[wufwugy]

i mean that in that i need a reason to switch off boog. like i said, im sticking with my reads and i dont want to give my opinion much this day. it's better for teh village that way

[OngBonga]

the only one remaining is the pascal dtb jyms wagon dynamic. would somebody explain to me how jyms is a wolf there? unless we're missing something he's only a wolf there due to sheer incompetence of the team, but that has also happened in the past so....

Wuf, I was saying this earlier when you were voting for him.

[wufwugy]

Wuf, I was saying this earlier when you were voting for him.

i was the very first person to claim this about him btw. recall that a few posts ago i stated that one of the reasons i started going after jyms was because i thought bigred was the seer and was telling us that one of jv, jyms, and hoopy is a wolf

so yeah, im highly reluctant to want to kill jyms off here, but i ask because bikes seems to think he needs to die, and bikes is a good player and seer right now

[GatorJH]

gator - i posted saying other players should or could be on that list, you asked who specifically.

The players i was thinking of are Jyms (although he is posting more now) and Aubrey (who hasn't really posted much all game). I'm surprised that you didn't identify either of these players as 'low content'

I didn't because I already have jyms high on my target list and I think Aubrey is a villager.

[GatorJH]

lynch jyms

Lets get this thing going.

[jyms]

Give it a rest Gator, there is no way I am being lynched tonight but with the amount of suspision by enough players I won't make endgame anyway. I think there some players that we have no clue about and if they make it down to the end it's all guessing game. I still have Boog bolded but I will lynch NG, Aubrey or gator as well

[jyms]

I didn't because I already have jyms high on my target list and I think Aubrey is a villager.

I'd like to see what reason you have both of these opinions based on anything but post count which by the way has me far ahead?

[bikes]

i am home early but i am really drunk. i stand by my lynch

[wufwugy]

i am home early but i am really drunk. i stand by my lynch

why

i know ur all nostradamus with being able to peer into the darkest of mists, but im the kind of person who needs explanations

[bikes]

why

i know ur all nostradamus with being able to peer into the darkest of mists, but im the kind of person who needs explanations

why am i home early? half because i broke the game half because im booking a win.

why drunk? because i have problems.

why jyms? because something doesnt sit right with me and his posting style and at the very worst we lose a useless villager this game

[bikes]

i am very well aware he could be a villager but at this point the can mostly play itself

[bikes]

the game can mostly play itserlf

[wufwugy]

how do you explain the pascal dtb jyms dynamic?

[bikes]

looks like panic mode imo.

[wufwugy]

how? nobody, and that means nobody, was on any wagon that wasnt dtb pascal or jyms. the only wagon that was above 2 was hoopy and that was only for as long as i pushed for it. the wolves would have to be so unbearably incompetent to let the only 3 lynchable wagons, at a time when everything was so dispersed, land on only wolves.

the only explanation i guess i see is that pascal was targeted and they wanted off that, then jyms was targeted and they wanted off that, and they never expected dtb to be targeted. god, it's possible, but everything i hold dear in life tells me that people are not that myopic and foolish

[wufwugy]

whatever, looks like jyms vs boog then. which im okay with. there are not that many better lynches today. i can only hope that jv ends up wolf and im right about boog. then people will be kissing my feet and i'll win the goat ww player of 2013 award

[bikes]

why not? it's a risky gambit but at that point they don't have much of a choice when 2 wolves are targetted hard

[bikes]

i cannot describe how much i hope that i'm right and its jyms not b00g who is the wolf

[wufwugy]

that implies you think jv is wolf

[bikes]

i have no clue on jv i thought he was a wolf from the start but at the end of the day it's too much FPS for JV to be a wolf too

[wufwugy]

oh wait, i see, its because u dont want teh egowugy fed

tough chance at that. im like a mini-keith; i'll find any way i can to feed that ego. at least i know its stupid, in the end

[wufwugy]

sometimes i feel like its because jv comes from a different culture than america that i feel i cant read him. i thought i always could, which is why he looked like such a wolf before he outed, but afterwards it seems he's probably telling the truth. i need to play with only american. people like rilla i can read nonstop. americans are too emotional

[wufwugy]

would be super interesting if the last two wolves were jyms and hoopy, as they were the only two to call aubrey a "he".

one would think that if they were busy not engaged in wolfchat, they would know better

[wufwugy]

*not busily engaged in wolfchat

yes i bought more vodka. no i shouldnt have

[jackvance]

What a crappy race boog vs jyms.Hoopy is even more likely to be a wolf than either of them. Just look at the bizarre way Jyms was defending wuf as if he was getting a million bucks for it, a bit back. Wolves never ever do such a thing. There is no incentive. Even if both Jyms and wuf were wolves he wouldn't act like he was on his leesh. Then contrast that with a NG or Gator who both have at no point exuded a strong villager vibe. That's how the wolves roll.

[BooG690]

Don't listen to Wuf and allow it to be a race between jyms and I. We can't let him manipulate the day like this. I'd rather wait until someone like Ong decrees a race that we can all do. Or even daven. If I'm part of said race, so be it. I won't fight it. This stupid one by Wuf can't be though.

[Keith]

how about hoopy vs gator . Gator has put his name forward as a safe lynch for the village before and hoopy i'm not sold on as being a lock villager. tonights action is going to give us a lot of info to work with tomorrow

[Keith]

or hoopy vs aubery or even aubery vs gator. of the three i think aubery would be best to go due to lack of experience being on my shortlist of people being on the three possible wolfy wagons.

[jyms]

i cannot describe how much i hope that i'm right and its jyms not b00g who is the wolf

You're the one driving this lynch, by feel no less. So much so you didn't even bother to look me up as the seer

[jyms]

whatever, looks like jyms vs boog then. which im okay with. there are not that many better lynches today. i can only hope that jv ends up wolf and im right about boog. then people will be kissing my feet and i'll win the goat ww player of 2013 award

I find this hard to believe that you believe this. I may have boog bolded but even I think there are better lynches but those wagons won't roll today so why waste a vote.

[Hoopy]

I think we go for BooG or gizmo today.

[BooG690]

I like Aubrey/Hoopy.

Lynch Hoopy out of spite.

[GatorJH]

I like JV's analysis and will rescind jyms.

I could get in a hoopy wagon but would be extremely shocked if Aubrey is a villager.

If we need a safe lynch today lynch me and let her live so she can gain some experience. My availability over the next few days is going to be tough anyway.

[BooG690]

So you guys believe that when Aubrey and I separately agreed to toftt after two wolves had been outed it was a massive wolf level?

That's some seriously flawed thinking, but whatever. I am 90% sure Aubrey is a villager and I know I am.

I didn't because I already have jyms high on my target list and I think Aubrey is a villager.

I could get in a hoopy wagon but would be extremely shocked if Aubrey is a villager.

If we need a safe lynch today lynch me and let her live so she can gain some experience. My availability over the next few days is going to be tough anyway.

You'd be shocked if Aubrey is a villager?

[Hoopy]

Wolf Gator slipping up, get him!!!!

[jackvance]

Ya we got him! Let's lynch him for the typo!!

[OngBonga]

Yeah let's lynch someone who, in my eyes, would be cleared villager if jack gets shot.

Jack is pushing for hoopy, we should wait until tomorrow.

Gizmo or wuf today imo. Failing that, whoever bikes goes for, though I'll say it again, jyms is a villager.

[GatorJH]

You'd be shocked if Aubrey is a villager?

And THAT is why I hate trying to keep up with this game on an iphone. You would think with me being in iT I would have some pull to get FTR on the approved website list but noooooo.

[GatorJH]

Yeah let's lynch someone who, in my eyes, would be cleared villager if jack gets shot.

Jack is pushing for hoopy, we should wait until tomorrow.

Gizmo or wuf today imo. Failing that, whoever bikes goes for, though I'll say it again, jyms is a villager.

Then what is the plan tomorrow after seer bikes gets nommed and Jack is still alive? If he is the vig, and shoots tonight, the wolves can leave him be for another day to distract the village.

[OngBonga]

If jack is alive tomorrow, he's the vig. This is why I asked the real vig to shoot him, unless the vig plans on outing himself tomorrow so we know jack is a wolf. Whatever happens overnight, we should know jack's role.

[Hoopy]

7 hours to go.

Yeah let's lynch someone who, in my eyes, would be cleared villager if jack gets shot.

Hey Ong, why would Gator be cleared if JV gets shot?

[NightGizmo]

If jack is alive tomorrow, he's the vig. This is why I asked the real vig to shoot him, unless the vig plans on outing himself tomorrow so we know jack is a wolf. Whatever happens overnight, we should know jack's role.

This is super-obvious. JV should never be lynched today, especially with bikes outing as seer as well. Worst case, both specials have outed. If we lynch one and the wolves nom the other tonight, we're in a world of hurt. Best case -- they are both wolves (highly unlikely) and the game is over. Most likely case -- bikes is real seer and JV is the wolf.

We'll know for sure 100% of the time if JV is a wolf tonight -- either the wolves eat him and he flips vig, or the real vig shoots him and he flips wolf.

And if bikes is the real seer -- he's probably dead tonight, too.

[OngBonga]

7 hours to go.

Hey Ong, why would Gator be cleared if JV gets shot?

I was talking about you hoopy, not gator.

[OngBonga]

gizmo, wolves aren't killing jack tonight if he's vig... they only have one nom.

[NightGizmo]

gizmo, wolves aren't killing jack tonight if he's vig... they only have one nom.

Yeah, typed that too quickly. I meant "either the vig shoots him and he flips wolf or he's still alive and he's the vig".

[OngBonga]

Exactly... and since people like me and hoopy are pretty much cleared villagers if jack is a wolf, then we should wait until tomorrow to swing for hoopy.

[daven]

every other reason ive had for not wanting to lynch jyms has since been quashed (like thinking he may be the seer or thinking his explanation for why he was so inactive was legit). the only one remaining is the pascal dtb jyms wagon dynamic. would somebody explain to me how jyms is a wolf there? unless we're missing something he's only a wolf there due to sheer incompetence of the team, but that has also happened in the past so....

see my post 1274
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2130946

but also Jackvance's post 1385
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2131182

note Jyms' post 1275

I don't see how I am clear either, I just think there are better choices

At the moment i don't see any lock wolves. Jyms still seems most likely to me. I think that Bikes is seer and that Jackvance is vig - if this is correct then we have a pretty small pool of players for the remaining two wolves to hide in. We'll have a lot more info after we know for sure re Jackvance and Bikes.

[daven]

I can't be bothered to read up until I know if jack is wolf or vig.

I understand why i guess, but we have to lynch someone. I'm surprised to see you, of all people, being blase about who we choose.

[daven]

whatever, looks like jyms vs boog then. which im okay with. there are not that many better lynches today. i can only hope that jv ends up wolf and im right about boog. then people will be kissing my feet and i'll win the goat ww player of 2013 award

why these two specifically?

then this post again makes me want to ask you the same question (re Jyms vs Boog)

would be super interesting if the last two wolves were jyms and hoopy, as they were the only two to call aubrey a "he".

one would think that if they were busy not engaged in wolfchat, they would know better

[OngBonga]

We already know bikes is seer, there's just no point in him faking. If he doesn't get nommed my head is gonna melt. Fuck with us wolves... leave him another night. We did the no nom thing last time, try leaving an outed seer alive longer than needed for a cocky move.

[OngBonga]

I understand why i guess, but we have to lynch someone. I'm surprised to see you, of all people, being blase about who we choose.

Problem I have is that I'm still reading everything with the bias that jack is a wolf. Tomorrow I will know for sure, then I can apply that knowledge as I read through. So yeah I don't care who we lynch today, I'd prefer it to not be someone I have a villager read on, like hoopy and jyms.

[daven]

Don't listen to Wuf and allow it to be a race between jyms and I. We can't let him manipulate the day like this. I'd rather wait until someone like Ong decrees a race that we can all do. Or even daven. If I'm part of said race, so be it. I won't fight it. This stupid one by Wuf can't be though.

surely our best option is for one of Keith or Bigred (confirmed villagers assuming Bikes = seer) identify wagon targets? or Bikes himself, and he has already stated his preferred target. Only downside with Keith choosing the wagons is that one of them would probably be Wufwugy and I'm pretty sure he's a villager. Downside with Bigred choosing is that he seems to not have been following things very closely. Wufwugy's recent posts are starting to sound a little like distraught over-defence, but although it's probably hard to distinguish between frustrated villager and scared wolf he still seems more like a villager to me.

[daven]

how about hoopy vs gator . Gator has put his name forward as a safe lynch for the village before and hoopy i'm not sold on as being a lock villager. tonights action is going to give us a lot of info to work with tomorrow

and i get to this post immediately after hitting 'submit reply'
guess Keith's suggested targets didn't include Wufwugy after all.

[OngBonga]

Can anyone provide a case for why gizmo is a villager?

[daven]

or hoopy vs aubery or even aubery vs gator. of the three i think aubery would be best to go due to lack of experience being on my shortlist of people being on the three possible wolfy wagons.

why not Jyms vs pretty much anyone who isn't associated with Bikes' seer outing, and who hasn't outed as a special?

[GatorJH]

If jack is alive tomorrow, he's the vig. This is why I asked the real vig to shoot him, unless the vig plans on outing himself tomorrow so we know jack is a wolf. Whatever happens overnight, we should know jack's role.

Ahhhh true.

If most of us think Bikes is the real seer then why don't we just pick someone to lynch and go with it. Even if someone outs as the big we know a wolf would die tonight.

Therefore the biggest question is who? Several people have me in their wolf category as well as wuf and, I think, gizmo. Jyms is also up there, but he can wait.

Keith, you have done the most analysis of the confirmed villagers so I will go along with you today even if the answer is Gator.

[daven]

Can anyone provide a case for why gizmo is a villager?

he's on my list of maybes, along with Boog690, Gator, Aubrey,and you.
He's posting some posts that have content but that in itself obviously doesn't clear him. I think it's the same with him as with the rest of the maybes, we'll have a pretty clear line on his role once we know re Bikes and Jackvance.

[daven]

Problem I have is that I'm still reading everything with the bias that jack is a wolf. Tomorrow I will know for sure, then I can apply that knowledge as I read through. So yeah I don't care who we lynch today, I'd prefer it to not be someone I have a villager read on, like hoopy and jyms.

i understand that. I still can't get that Jyms may not be a wolf. I tried looking for Jyms=villager evidence when looking thoroughly through that wagon that is always being talked about as clearing him, but nothing looked compelling to me.

[OngBonga]

The strongest argument for jyms being a wolf I've seen so far is "panic mode".