Is it possible to be a winning player in the LARGE MTT games?

[vegasjj]

I play mostly MTT's and yes on balance I am on the positive side.
So please forgive the title of the post - but the title IS RELEVANT to my point.

Here is some observation - question I have - and real curious of feedback/opinions.

I just finished in a MTT at FullTilt (a strange and fun game), but the payout structure is what we typically find in the large MTT's at Pokerstars and FullTilt, that is very heavily favoring the winner of the game - and the final table.

In this example 2242 people started - I finished in 16th place - my reward = apx 13x the buy-in (0.50 was bounty and 0.20 fee)
That is I had to finish in the top 0.71% of the field to get this pay out. (16th of 2242)
or just under 1%. Or to put it in a different way - One in apx 140 starting people got as far as I did.
Or if all things are the same - mathematically - I should expect after every 140 starts to get this far. (Spend $2 x140 to get $26 or better back)
140 starts.. that is at one game a day - is nearly half a year... til next pay day of this size OR BETTER.

Of course should I actually get the real good thing (the win) - top pay was over $800! That sure makes-up for a whole bunch of no wins. But odds are APX. ONE IN 2200 for that!!

As I said earlier I am on slightly positive side of $ overall ... so how come? I guess in good part is because of value added games; generally good game selection; SnG games and hate to say it - but playing games at sites that have a more flat payout structure.

I am a definite loser at Pokerstars - and I keep going back - just love the software - love the game selection - the quality of play (for the most part). Pretty much same is true about FullTilt for me.
But as an average player that just cannot really reach the top position in some big MTT - I think I am financing my "love affair" with these sites by winning my share at the other sites and in private games.

Please don't chop ME into pieces for this post - but feel free to point out the flaw(s) of my thinking. I'd be real happy if this "theory" is wrong.
Here is the tourney I used as an example

[Fielmann]

To find your expected return from a tournament you need to multiply each prize with the chance of getting that prize and then add them all up. For example if you think your chance of finishing on any particular position is 1/2242, and the 1st place pays $800, 2nd place $500, 3rd place $400, etc., it would look like:
800/2242 + 500/2242 + 400/2242 + ....
The result should be $2.00. If you have an edge over your opposition then the chance of getting the in the money positions is higher than 1/2242, meaning that in the long run you should get more than $2.00. If you can get more than $2.20, you'll show profit. (The knock-out money will probably take care of itself then.)

That said, the variance is obviously huge. If you're planning to play just one per day, it will take half your life to get a sample with any meaningfulness. And yes, flatter pay-outs are better, but they're rare, because sites, perhaps correctly, assume that it's the huge top prizes that draw attention.

[Luco]

Vegassjj, this is why every MTT article ever says play for 1st or go home trying - because that one time you get it is worth way more than a steady stream of 10th+ finishes.

If you don't think you're capable of taking 1/2200 then study up on MTT strategy and work on your MTT game until you feel you have a shot. GL

[PokerKing]

It is true that it doesn't really make sense playing on Stars if you look at it that way, but if you like the software, then use some of your winnings from other places to play at Stars. One day a bigger win will come. I ended third in their $1.10 [6-Max, $2.5k Gtd] last year giving me $300. With that win I can play a long time on Stars before I'm back into the reds

Let's face it, as it looks right now, Stars and Tilt are the only places where you can win some serious money for a little BI. So, it's worth the try I think. I'm also playing a lot on Ongame, as they have quite a few places open to us Danes, but their tourneys lose value all the time. So I mix it up.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Of course should I actually get the real good thing (the win) - top pay was over $800! That sure makes-up for a whole bunch of no wins. But odds are APX. ONE IN 2200 for that!!

This assumes that everyone who enters the MTT is exactly equal in skill, AND that they play equivalent strategies, each perfectly balanced against the rest, AND that they play their strategy perfectly every time, or at least that everyone deviates from their strategy in a manner that is exactly equal EV.

That's a pipe dream if ever there was one.

The clear strategy is to enter MTT's with player fields which are, on average, less skilled than you. Also, it is vital to have a winning strategy and to stick to your strategy w/o tilt.

[vegasjj]

Thank you all for some great answers ...

I will keep on playing big MTT's - primary because I really enjoy it the most. Also need to read some more - sure did not read enough poker... maybe should get a HUD - if for no other reason - at least so I can more objectively review my game....

I find poker to be such an amazing - never the same - mix of skill, attitude, luck and the bigger the tourney - the more the excitement. To actually win a big tourney all these things have to be lined-up perfectly...the odds are so very slim! (ie 1 of 2200 - other times of 10k+ people).
With so very few people taking home the bacon - I really wonder - how do most of us manage to finance our "hobby"

[Fielmann]

There are few professional MTT players. Most play cash or SnG's where fluctuations are smaller. Of those that do play MTT's, they generally play, on average, smaller fields than 2200 and they play multiple tournaments (often more than ten) at the same time which also reduces variance.

[Sykedupp]

There are few professional MTT players. Most play cash or SnG's where fluctuations are smaller. Of those that do play MTT's, they generally play, on average, smaller fields than 2200 and they play multiple tournaments (often more than ten) at the same time which also reduces variance.

yup

cap MTTs are your friend if you want to reduce variance. The lower level ones that come to mind are the 3-4 $5.50 1000cap MTTs they have each day on PS. That's a good start.

As you move up levels it becomes more important to branch out to other sites to reduce variance. A $55 on PS will have anywhere from 500 players (5pm EST) to 1500 Players (Hot 55) to 2500 players (Big 55)... But the daily 55s on IPoker//FTP (to a lesser extent)/Ongame/Party will have anywhere from 140ish players to about 400.

[Poker Orifice]

When I choose to enter a low/micro buyin MTT with a field of 2,200 players, I like to tell myself I have a much better chance than 1 in 2,200.

Adding in 'Cap' tourneys or tourneys with smaller field sizes is great advice. I know some MTT players will also add in the 180man Sng's (& others who used to play the 45man's (reg. speed) on FTP... < not sure if they're filling up these days).

Hope you hit the big win soon!

[brucesmall]

I hope they open to the US again really soon, could use the small buy in's big reward type of thing.... How full do the sng's get and how competitive is it for a $5 buy in on a standard sng?

[dombo]

Sorry for late comment VegasJJ , but I didn't forget it

And while playing big field MTT's , of course you need to get 'lucky' more often as you probably find yourself in way more flips. These big fields also requires lots of stamina and focus.

this is why every MTT article ever says play for 1st or go home trying

Love this comment!

As you move up levels it becomes more important to branch out to other sites to reduce variance.

This as well , same for capped tourneys.

[Luco]

VegasJJ I saw you in a couple of tournaments last night and it didn't look like you were playing for 1st...

[vegasjj]

VegasJJ I saw you in a couple of tournaments last night and it didn't look like you were playing for 1st...

I am SURE you are right.

I had some good game early on Sunday - was a lot of fun and exciting.. and was close to get into the main event at Pokerstars ($700) buy-in for what started out as a 125VPP buy-in. The final Satellite had over 8K people I finished 500 something - close to 300 got through. Crazy blinds - and in that game I did try to "hang in there" - but- in final hand I called my opponent - who went all in utg with Q8 off - with a decent hand had to take a chance - and did not pan out.

After that game - things went totally downhill, could not get a face card in any of the games I played - which is probably where you saw me.

However I am putting-up a third pic - of a nice win I just had a few days ago, just to "say" I do play for the win (or would not have gotten that far) if the cards permit me to do so.

[Luco]

It's always fun to play with people you've spoken to online. As soon as I saw your s/n I thought of this thread, so it was a great chance to see you in action... you've got a decent game, you just need to watch for when the table tightens up so you can get out there and steal your share. The only person who knows you are card dead is you - 'If you're never caught bluffing, you're not bluffing enough'.

I'm sure we'll meet again soon, gl

[vegasjj]

It's always fun to play with people you've spoken to online. As soon as I saw your s/n I thought of this thread, so it was a great chance to see you in action... you've got a decent game, you just need to watch for when the table tightens up so you can get out there and steal your share. The only person who knows you are card dead is you - 'If you're never caught bluffing, you're not bluffing enough'.

I'm sure we'll meet again soon, gl

Thank you for your comments and for the REAL GOOD VALUABLE advice.

Yea I guess I could bluff more (of course i do some - but I usually try to not do too much - maybe could increase a bit)

[Poker Orifice]

Thank you for your comments and for the REAL GOOD VALUABLE advice.

Yea I guess I could bluff more (of course i do some - but I usually try to not do too much - maybe could increase a bit)

You bluff tons... what are you talkin' about?
wtg on that 7th place finish in $1 turbo KO!!!

[sam1FTR]

There are few professional MTT players. Most play cash or SnG's where fluctuations are smaller. Of those that do play MTT's, they generally play, on average, smaller fields than 2200 and they play multiple tournaments (often more than ten) at the same time which also reduces variance.

Yeah, it's all about reducing the variance. Unfortunately the MTT tournament payouts are staggered so much that you definitely need to get a win or at least a final table to have a big payday

[vegasjj]

You bluff tons... what are you talkin' about?

WOOHOOO Luco says I don't bluff enough then u say I bluff too much...

sounds to me that I am EXACTLY WHERE I WANT TO BE:

HAVE YOU GUYS CONFUSED

wtg on that 7th place finish in $1 turbo KO!!!

Thank you

[Luco]

Ok, Poker Orifice has a lot more hands on you than I do so I'm happy to go with him on this one.

Also, he didn't say you bluff too much; he said you bluff tons - and tons is often the right amount

For the large field tournaments you do need a massive run of luck to go with your skills and as Fielmann said you may never play enough of these huge tournaments for your luck to even out. It's really important to build a stack and keep building it though so you can survive when someone doubles up off you.

[Pascal]

The legend mementmori:

Online from my global alias (scheduled mtts only):
26.483 $38 $154 72% $1,026,332

[Luco]

Can you please explain those stats Pasc(h)al? I think I know what most of them mean

[Pascal]

It's sharkscope stats:

Number of games played
Ave profit
Ave buyin
Ave ROI
Total profit

[Luco]

yeah that ROI is just wtf stellar

[Pascal]

Ave ROI is a pain in the ass, more telling is his actual ROI.

Total buyins = $4,078,382
Total profit = $1,026,332

So around 25.1% true ROI

[Luco]

does it show that I rarely, if ever, use sharkscope?

[vegasjj]

Ave ROI is a pain in the ass, more telling is his actual ROI.

Total buyins = $4,078,382
Total profit = $1,026,332

So around 25.1% true ROI

WOW - NICE!!! CONGRATS!

and I think this clearly answers my question!

Do you typically play large / medium / small MTT's?
(I am referring to # of participants - not to the buy-in value)

[Pascal]

Those aren't my figures - they're mementmori, a Pokerstars Team Online Pro.

[vegasjj]

Those aren't my figures - they're mementmori, a Pokerstars Team Online Pro.

I was wondering how come you are not a full time pro