Bet sizing question--drawing value from monster hands

[sven00100]

Flop is an absolute dream 3-handed as it connects heavily with the range of villains. Therefore 3/4 pot minimum all the way to get all in by the river barring the most horrendous run-out.

Not a fan of 2x as standard in mp btw @4nl. Plus your avatar is a little bit creepy

Message received. Haha. . . and avatar fixed. I meant it to be my profile pic not my avatar anyways.
Yeah I was wondering about MP sizing there, or if I even want to be playing 55 there in the first place MP. . I don't like open limping at all, and I'm not sure if I should be willing to bet there, though I don't remember what 3bet% were behind, though I know at .02/.04 NL they tend to be low, and stacks in general are 50-100 BB, so it's probably fine shooting for low sets. . .

My positional sizing is a little weird, and I'm not sure what I really should have as my default on .02/.04 in various positions. Late position I've been pot betting (3.5BB total/2.5BB raise)

This isn't like AAA on A73 where you cripple the board, and he has very little calling range.

555 on QJ5cc, where he probably won't fold any Qx, Jx, clubs, straight draws, you can def just bet like 0.20 or so.

That's true. I guess I wasn't thinking how well this would hit his extended range, given his preflop calling range and that he probably won't 3bet a large portion of his normal PFR range.

What do you think happens if you bet ~$0.40 here?

I'd def. overbet this flop with KK+, but overpairs are more vulnerable.

This hand isn't really vulnerable, but any club, A,K, or T is going to either scare Villain or improve him. If it scares him, then he might stop putting chips in.

Thoughts?

My main thought is, I'm wondering if AJ or Qx is going to call a double pot bet, and if this line improves our overall equity vs. his range, or just forces a fold due to pot odds & a cbet where his kicker is beat. Granted from what I saw he was probably not thinking on that level, but a larger bet might fold out some of his mediocre hands. What do you think?

On a side note, I'm not sure that a T here will scare the villain 2 handed. I think the only draw I have here is AK, which I probably wouldn't cbet 3 handed against this particular villain, as a low cbet will likely get called with mid pair and a large cbet makes me too vulnerable especially where his hand hit. Again, he's probably not thinking that, but I don't think he's afraid of a 3 straight on the board, if he paired the board high. Still your thought about A K or club is valid. I assume he'd call that bet with a club draw also from what I saw, so I don't really know. I need to find pokerstove again so I can run some scenarios.

[TNreg]

Just download Equilab from pokerstrategy dot com. It's the same program, actually better imo.

[jackvance]

Just download Equilab from pokerstrategy dot com. It's the same program, actually better imo.

Been using that too, it's great.

Bet $0.20

[MadMojoMonkey]

My main thought is, I'm wondering if AJ or Qx is going to call a double pot bet

You're thinking along the right lines. You can go smaller than 2x. Does a 1.5x bet have the same effect on Villain's range? The idea is that there's a bet size that is the biggest Villain will call without having a completely nutted range. That's the target bet size here.

and if this line improves our overall equity vs. his range, or just forces a fold due to pot odds & a cbet where his kicker is beat.

You have a strong hand here, but you can be outdrawn by both broadway and flush hands. So this is not the time to slow-play to get value from Villain's mediocre hands. This is the time to jam the chips in as fast as Villain will follow. If Villain is folding too much when you make this bet, then you do it more often, not less.

The thing about bottom set is that it's not a totally nutted hand, but it's nearly that strong. Since it's not quite strong enough to slow play, it's in the fast play zone against all but the fishiest of Villains. On this hand, it's 3-way OTF, so that means both villains have to be whales for you to slow play a set. So it's not strong enough. So you fast play it. And if Villains are folding too often when you bet like that, you bet like that more often by doing it with monster draws, not less often by removing your strong hands.

Granted from what I saw he was probably not thinking on that level, but a larger bet might fold out some of his mediocre hands. What do you think?

I think you're toeing the waters of FPS lake. Of course a bigger bet folds out some of his mediocre hands, but it gets max value from his mid-strong hands and big draws.

[jackvance]

You're thinking along the right lines. You can go smaller than 2x. Does a 1.5x bet have the same effect on Villain's range? The idea is that there's a bet size that is the biggest Villain will call without having a completely nutted range. That's the target bet size here.

Plus, which is also not so large that it'll stick out like a sort thumb you have a strong hand because you never do this as a bluff in this spot.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Plus, which is also not so large that it'll stick out like a sort thumb you have a strong hand because you never do this as a bluff in this spot.

I wholeheartedly disagree.

If Villains fold too much when you make a big bet, then you bet big more often with a (slightly) wider range. You should not be removing near-nut hands from your strongest betting line, you should be adding monster draws and slowly adding in hands with fewer and fewer outs.

Now, if Villains are folding entirely too much when you make this bet, you might find that you are almost always bluffing with this bet, since you don't want Villains to fold when you have your nutted range... but the nutted range is quite different from the near-nutted range in how you play.

[jackvance]

I wholeheartedly disagree.

If Villains fold too much when you make a big bet, then you bet big more often with a (slightly) wider range. You should not be removing near-nut hands from your strongest betting line, you should be adding monster draws and slowly adding in hands with fewer and fewer outs.

Now, if Villains are folding entirely too much when you make this bet, you might find that you are almost always bluffing with this bet, since you don't want Villains to fold when you have your nutted range... but the nutted range is quite different from the near-nutted range in how you play.

This specific spot of overbetting a multiway pot because you want to blow up the pot is pretty standard what I see people try to get away with monsters. If this is your standard with a set, then how do you balance this range? I don't mean it as in, give me a theory of how you could do it, but practically, what is your overbetting range here in (multiway) pots?

[TNreg]

The board is wet. We're never betting a size here to get value from 77 or some shit. Betting out 75% of the pot is the standard line. If you have notes/reads then standard can be tossed out the window. Bet as much you think he'll call with his continuing range on this board. Whether that's 3/4 pot, psb, overbet, whatever, I would think that's what hero bets.

[MadMojoMonkey]

what is your overbetting range here in (multiway) pots?

Hero is UTG+1, so I wouldn't have 55 in my range here. Assuming 55 is the worst hand Hero plays in this spot, let's assume an opening range of:
{ 55+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo } 98 combos after card removal for the flop.
OK, I have huge issues with this range, but it's set-mine heavy and still too loose for me for UTG+1.
So I'll try to "balance" this range on this flop: Q 5 J

Overbet: { KK+,JJ,55,AK,AJ,AT } 21/98 combos
3/4 PSB: { QQ,TT-66, AQ,KQ } 57/98 combos
c/c: { AK,AKo (if either is ),AJs } 9/98 combos
c/f: { ATs (not ),AKs (not or ),AKo (neither is ) } 11/98

The { TT-66 } can be shifted around for primary adjustments. As they're mostly b/f's.

[daven]

22c looks good