The 2013 Diary of a Semi-LAG Tilt Monkey

[rpm]

one word of advice: if you're looking to make some really exploitative "3rd level thinking" types of plays then you need to be very conscious of what your real range/perceived range is. and this is fucking hard. i wouldnt be surprised to find a lot of distrusting 50-100nl 6m regs snapping off as weak as KQ in a heartbeat in hand 1. but then i used to play way too many hands way too aggressively.

edit: not that i hate turning this into a bluff. i'd say in this case with no history it's definitely +EV. but once it's worked for you a few times (if you're anything like me) you want to start printing money and jamming over every weak-tight reg's strong-but-not-nutted ranges. they quickly turn into stations against you. and that's just fine if you're very good at adjusting and/or maintaining enough balance to protect your weaker ranges. but be wary.

edit 2: another important thing to note in play is when your opponents' ranges are capped. these would be the first kind of spots i'd look to incorporate these kind of plays. ideally when villains range is capped and you are taking your "nut line" on whatever the board may be

hand 2 i'd way rather just call unless you think it's +EV to 4b/call. assuming you planned on folding to a shove i don't like the 4b. you'll normallly be getting either folded to or jammed on when you 4b pre with 100bb effectivce stacks. so 99 is one of the worst hands to do it with imo. it has no showdown equity (because you fold almost 100% of the time villain continues), it has no added fold equity value (it probably actually increases his calling range, rather than decreasing it which a hand like Ax/Kx would do) AND it is almost definitely a profitable flat when we'll be playing HU IP vs a standardish 50nl reg 3b range from the blinds

best of luck

[TNreg]

Hey Bean, thought I'd drop in to say I've enjoyed reading the blog thus far. Isn't it amazing how a simple thing like discipline can be a huge leak? Not surprising though as most guys have problem with self control.

I think your opinion on 2p2 a few posts above is spot on though. It's a very resourceful site but engaging in any worthwhile conversation over there generally turns to shit, not to mention all the 2p2 regs with 100k hand break-even graphs, who like you said, advocate that level 2 nittiness.

GL and get some #rungood at 50NL.

[The Bean Counter]

one word of advice: if you're looking to make some really exploitative "3rd level thinking" types of plays then you need to be very conscious of what your real range/perceived range is. and this is fucking hard. i wouldnt be surprised to find a lot of distrusting 50-100nl 6m regs snapping off as weak as KQ in a heartbeat in hand 1. but then i used to play way too many hands way too aggressively.

Thanks for the advice as always dude. 50nl seems to be the first level on Stars where this shit becomes important and my image is pretty passive at the moment, so I can probably get away with it a few times. Knowing if/when villains are adjusting is proving tricky though, particularly in pre-flop dick-waving wars. One spot I've lost a few BI lately is 5b jamming low/middle pocket pairs when I get 4bet for the first time by the villain on the btn that I've been relentlessly 3betting from the bb. I'm assuming that they are adjusting and getting annoyed and consequently 4bet bluffing, but they seem to have premiums often - difficult to know if the 3b/5b line with middle pps the first time facing a 4bet is profitable over such a small sample (but I'm probably just picking terrible spots!).

edit: not that i hate turning this into a bluff. i'd say in this case with no history it's definitely +EV. but once it's worked for you a few times (if you're anything like me) you want to start printing money and jamming over every weak-tight reg's strong-but-not-nutted ranges. they quickly turn into stations against you. and that's just fine if you're very good at adjusting and/or maintaining enough balance to protect your weaker ranges. but be wary.

I definitely hear you on this re printing money. Self-control and balance in these spots isn't one of my strong points and I play even worse than normal when I'm over-confident.

edit 2: another important thing to note in play is when your opponents' ranges are capped. these would be the first kind of spots i'd look to incorporate these kind of plays. ideally when villains range is capped and you are taking your "nut line" on whatever the board may be

Agreed and noted. I've taken my nut line a few times since in bad spots when facing what I perceive to be a weak bet/fold or blocker bet line on a 3rd suited card on the river. Turns out the majority of the time that it's villain's own nut line!

hand 2 i'd way rather just call unless you think it's +EV to 4b/call. assuming you planned on folding to a shove i don't like the 4b. you'll normallly be getting either folded to or jammed on when you 4b pre with 100bb effectivce stacks. so 99 is one of the worst hands to do it with imo. it has no showdown equity (because you fold almost 100% of the time villain continues), it has no added fold equity value (it probably actually increases his calling range, rather than decreasing it which a hand like Ax/Kx would do) AND it is almost definitely a profitable flat when we'll be playing HU IP vs a standardish 50nl reg 3b range from the blinds

best of luck

Certainly take the point, but I'm not sure that having blockers really makes much difference at all here (although certainly helps ofc). This spot in particular, btn was opening 65% and folding to 3bets 70% ish. Sb was 3betting the btn 30% over a decent sample and I figured neither would continue with more than 3% of starting hands. I'd therefore crudely expect to get folds from both players more than 80% of the time minimum, as long as I'm not doing it too often.