Drug smugglers and Feds gameplay thread

[gabe]

yay im a confirmed villager

i also got to be the vig last night. it was awesome. it was so unexpected i didnt check my pms and hadnt looked at my email until i was on super tilt from the game not starting back. and lo and behold i got to shoot

[jyms]

And I agree with daven, I would still like to have someone explain how lynching him was a better choice than lynching pascal?

I think anyone not wanting to lynch him could be very much a fed. It's a total advantage on day 2 for them to get an extra villager kill at night.

[gabe]

how can we lose?

[a500lbgorilla]

yay im a confirmed villager

i also got to be the vig last night. it was awesome. it was so unexpected i didnt check my pms and hadnt looked at my email until i was on super tilt from the game not starting back. and lo and behold i got to shoot

After being an hour late, I was going to send our fair mod a pm talking about how I was going to laugh as a pack of hyena's raped the corpses of his closest loved ones.

For you and yours, I'm thinking elephants.

[jyms]

I heard it was goats

[gabe]

i was on as much tilt as you guys when the game wasnt back open yet. but its my fault


this is a crazy position to be in. im a confirmed villager early in the game, with other confirmed villagers the feds could go after. i dont even know what to do with myself

[a500lbgorilla]

i was on as much tilt as you guys when the game wasnt back open yet. but its my fault


this is a crazy position to be in. im a confirmed villager early in the game, with other confirmed villagers the feds could go after. i dont even know what to do with myself

Thoughts on Keith?

[gabe]

lol Keith.

And this lol is saying I'm not going to engage tonight. I got to you saying my very valid point was rubbish and then that I was talking out of my ass and I'm just not going to get my blood up on a sunday evening.

There's plenty of time to lay out all of my bits and pieces.

id be down to lynch him for the same reasons you made these posts.

lynch keith


we dont really have a clear line to knock out the rest of the feds so lets start it by making a huge push

[gabe]

I wasn't going to shoot Gabe BTW. Ong is always the right shot there; I just wanted the wolves to think I was going to shoot Gabe. Even if the vig sent me his bullet to kill Gabe, it would have been Ong

maybe

[jyms]

Ok, I am sure I will draw heat for this because I can't back it up yet but rilla is fed. Not everything will be clear for now and I am not going to ramble a whole shit load of stuff together for a huge post. But just for arguments sake right now, when Wuf put together a huge ass post, and had named daven (town) and gabe (town) rilla claimed " Anyway, I'm a little bit in love with wuf right now."

Before this posting he had done nothing but pick on my mistakes and claim I am a fed when we all know feds won't make mistakes. They plan posts, they discuss them with each other to make things fit and even pre post seeds to other posts. He has bolded many players and talks a shitload out of his ass without really pointing to a lot of specifics which he also says I do. He is trying to keep us bandwagoning villagers. Even when Ong was outed, he never really mentions it or says anything much about it. I will find more but could use a little help since the phone is brutal and a lot of this is from memory on a read through. Rilla is smarter than this. And usually plays devils advocate a lot more than he has this game too.


Lynch Rilla

[jyms]

For what it's worth, if you look at lynching me, who in the hell will that tie me too. I think If I go back again and I look at rilla as a fed, I can tie him to another possible fed.

[Keith]

a wolf can tally votes ....but point me to an instance where a wolf has done it and done it so that it shows how the major bandwagons were affected all through the voting. Also when i tallied the votes the #150 vote by Jyms was very strange to me when he voted bikes(2) rather than daven(3) . We now know daven is village and daven had taken heat, so why didn't a villager jyms vote daven and make it 5:4. why vote bikes and make it 5:3:3. If jyms thought he was dieing was it to give a fellow wolf cover?

I brought up jyms #150 post yesterday and he didn't comment on it . perhaps he can rectify that now.

As for villager advice , of course wolves can do it. but if i was a wolf it was totally unnecessary for me to actively suggest a method that village could use to exploit the rules and potentially find out two roles. Much better for the woolf team to keep quiet and only let the village find out one role.

Also why suggest the reviver out themselves to prevent a wolf claim. It gives an extra know role for the villagers and makes it harder for the wolves.In isolation wolves could one , but why do all three and make it much harder for the wolf team.

[gabe]

Ok, I am sure I will draw heat for this because I can't back it up yet but rilla is fed. Not everything will be clear for now and I am not going to ramble a whole shit load of stuff together for a huge post. But just for arguments sake right now, when Wuf put together a huge ass post, and had named daven (town) and gabe (town) rilla claimed " Anyway, I'm a little bit in love with wuf right now."

Before this posting he had done nothing but pick on my mistakes and claim I am a fed when we all know feds won't make mistakes. They plan posts, they discuss them with each other to make things fit and even pre post seeds to other posts. He has bolded many players and talks a shitload out of his ass without really pointing to a lot of specifics which he also says I do. He is trying to keep us bandwagoning villagers. Even when Ong was outed, he never really mentions it or says anything much about it. I will find more but could use a little help since the phone is brutal and a lot of this is from memory on a read through. Rilla is smarter than this. And usually plays devils advocate a lot more than he has this game too.


Lynch Rilla

not a bad shot. i remember thinking WTF when rilla made that "in love with wuf post." that alone is a wolfy thing for rilla to write. if other people wrote it then it wouldnt be so wolfy imo. why would rilla love the circumstantialest of evidence so much!?

[gabe]

with all this new info i need to do a fresh read through before i can come up with something of real value

[a500lbgorilla]

not a bad shot. i remember thinking WTF when rilla made that "in love with wuf post." that alone is a wolfy thing for rilla to write. if other people wrote it then it wouldnt be so wolfy imo. why would rilla love the circumstantialest of evidence so much!?

It was friday and that was my mood. And you might want to read back on why I threw Keith's name out there.

[jyms]

a wolf can tally votes ....but point me to an instance where a wolf has done it and done it so that it shows how the major bandwagons were affected all through the voting. Also when i tallied the votes the #150 vote by Jyms was very strange to me when he voted bikes(2) rather than daven(3) . We now know daven is village and daven had taken heat, so why didn't a villager jyms vote daven and make it 5:4. why vote bikes and make it 5:3:3. If jyms thought he was dieing was it to give a fellow wolf cover?

I brought up jyms #150 post yesterday and he didn't comment on it . perhaps he can rectify that now.

As for villager advice , of course wolves can do it. but if i was a wolf it was totally unnecessary for me to actively suggest a method that village could use to exploit the rules and potentially find out two roles. Much better for the woolf team to keep quiet and only let the village find out one role.

Also why suggest the reviver out themselves to prevent a wolf claim. It gives an extra know role for the villagers and makes it harder for the wolves.In isolation wolves could one , but why do all three and make it much harder for the wolf team.

I missed this question. Gimme a second to find your post. I only found my #150
.

[a500lbgorilla]

a wolf can tally votes ....but point me to an instance where a wolf has done it and done it so that it shows how the major bandwagons were affected all through the voting. Also when i tallied the votes the #150 vote by Jyms was very strange to me when he voted bikes(2) rather than daven(3) . We now know daven is village and daven had taken heat, so why didn't a villager jyms vote daven and make it 5:4. why vote bikes and make it 5:3:3. If jyms thought he was dieing was it to give a fellow wolf cover?

I brought up jyms #150 post yesterday and he didn't comment on it . perhaps he can rectify that now.

As for villager advice , of course wolves can do it. but if i was a wolf it was totally unnecessary for me to actively suggest a method that village could use to exploit the rules and potentially find out two roles. Much better for the woolf team to keep quiet and only let the village find out one role.

Also why suggest the reviver out themselves to prevent a wolf claim. It gives an extra know role for the villagers and makes it harder for the wolves.In isolation wolves could one , but why do all three and make it much harder for the wolf team.

I don't personally consider any of this evidence that you're a villager because a wolf could do it to bank villager points. For instance, a wolf would recognize that the advice for a reviver to out was eventually going to hit the thread (likely when the reviver outs) and could consider it a valuable for their own cover to get it in there themselves.

[gabe]

And you might want to read back on why I threw Keith's name out there.

yup thats happening.


everyone be on your sharpest game because IM A CONFIRMED VILLAGER i can be as crazy accusatory as i want

[jyms]

I picked bikes at that time because Daven was on Wuf, if I pick daven he bolds me and I am at 6. We all know you need more than one wagon to split votes and get people taking sides. I am not winning vs daven their and I am going home. I needed another wagon to start. bikes was lacking posts, we still had a pascal lynch to consider too. Going head to head would be all kinds of stupid.

[JKDS]

I can lynch rilla. I think jyms is town, and I think the wolves are pissed that ppl are thinking that way and are being too stubborn about letting his Lynch go. It's hard for wolves to attack new ppl after all.

Rilla can be wolfin for wanting to ignore ongs posts and that side with wuf thing.

[gabe]

nightgizmo, rilla, jackvance, keith, aubrey are my suspicious 5. gator and jyms will be tough to examine

[jackvance]

For me, Gator (he posts so little = hard), Aubrey (now less so), rilla (he's very, idk, bombastic), NG (nothing really suspicious, he is just playing like he always plays a wolf too). I'm quite sure I'm missing something, for example MMM and Savy are still a questionmark but not yet worth considering unless we start missing wolf kills. Luco is almost always a villager here, but I can tell you now luco you're never gonna be able to fool me as a wolf again, your thought processes are too much in line with my own.

Jyms is the interesting person atm, he's been fishy all game, but now his way of posting is reminding me a lot of that game where he was left in endgame with me in a tricky spot. Like, he's still making sense to me. Hard to explain.


Gabe, what is your opinion on the hoopy kill? This came unexpected for me so maybe there's some info there.

[bikes]

i think the best lynch choices tonight are nightgizmo jackvance or aubrey.

i still have no clue wtf jyms is doing but i don't get the wolfy vibe from him. its more the chicken with it's head cut off vibe. i am like 95% positive that luco is for sure villager based on how early ong voted to lynch him day 1. and imsavy is probably town 80%+ of the time based on ongbonga's interaction with him imo.

[a500lbgorilla]

On - ignoring ong.

Once ong comes out as a wolf, that's in the bag. I don't tend to use info like that as a lever for finding other wolves. I don't effectively know how and feel like I have better success relying on other techniques. I've mentioned that even today before the pressure started building on me. I don't have a history of using wolves to find other wolves. I usually treat them as disconnected cases.

On - wuv wuf.

I said it at the time that I was expecting the sort of reasoning that didn't seem to materialize. I had sensed that wuf was going to make the mistake of filling an information vacuum with what he wanted to be there - essentially building a house on sand. But when I read his case on daven, I thought it was pretty slick. I was expecting to be back later that night before the deadline, but Friday night got away from me. Even if I had come back, daven had to go. Wuf's case was super solid. Ong was all over daven all day, and when the opportunity came to really press the knife into him, he lost all his bluster. That action demanded an explanation and I allowed myself to be convinced by wuf that he was inside ong's head a bit. I did the same with his reasoning on their having used the action-peek to see wuf receive the good news. At the time, I felt that wuf was demonstrated a keen focus that would far out-strip mine and so I sceded my vote over to him. I was happy to see that he was seemingly cleverly out manuevering the wolves and putting in good work.

JKDS - wolves don't like to find new targets - I feel like I have a good history of finding new targets in this thread. I brought up aubrey out of no where to build pressure. I brought up Keith today.

Tomorrow I'll take some time to lay out my JV case for once and my Jyms case more clearly. I'll also try to highlight why I placed the other names where I did and leave you to take what you like.

[a500lbgorilla]

Remember that the wuf laying out the case is a villager, so that drops the defenses a bit.

[a500lbgorilla]

On - ignoring ong.

Once ong comes out as a wolf, that's in the bag. I don't tend to use info like that as a lever for finding other wolves. I don't effectively know how and feel like I have better success relying on other techniques. I've mentioned that even today before the pressure started building on me. I don't have a history of using wolves to find other wolves. I usually treat them as disconnected cases.

For clarity's sake.

I'm not going to read jyms by way of ong. Wuf created a really compelling case against daven by way of ong. And we learned the lesson we usually learn. Your explanation is weighed against every quirky possible explanation, and that usually doesn't give you very good odds.

I'm going to read jyms for jyms. And jyms reads a wolf, time and time again.

[GatorJH]

i think the best lynch choices tonight are nightgizmo jackvance or aubrey.

i still have no clue wtf jyms is doing but i don't get the wolfy vibe from him. its more the chicken with it's head cut off vibe. i am like 95% positive that luco is for sure villager based on how early ong voted to lynch him day 1. and imsavy is probably town 80%+ of the time based on ongbonga's interaction with him imo.

I think Luco and Bikes may be two of the final Feds. I mentioned earlier that I think one of either Luco or Savy were a Fed based on Ong bolding them quickly on day 1, but then rescinding them just as quickly and I still feel that way. Then Bikes makes the above posts and puts Luco at 95% villager because "Ong bolded him on day 1" even though he rescinded 15 minutes after bolding him. I need to go back through Bikes' posts, but feel confident enough now to say we should lynch bikes

Btw, I also noticed a couple of wolfish posts by Jyms and what could be a single mistake by a Fed Rilla. I will post them as soon as I go through Bikes' posts.

[Keith]

ok so why is rilla going so hard after me.

I don't personally consider any of this evidence that you're a villager because a wolf could do it to bank villager points. For instance, a wolf would recognize that the advice for a reviver to out was eventually going to hit the thread (likely when the reviver outs) and could consider it a valuable for their own cover to get it in there themselves.

realy? since you are so adamant about this why didn't you comment about it just after i posted the tally and hoopy posted

wuf's case on daven is good, keith making the effort to do a vote log is useful and gets him some villager points.

I'll try and do a vote count before voting going to bed, we have about 7hrs left at this point.

Not a word from you that i could be doing it as a wolf at that stage. However if it helps to prove i'm a villager we get to a situation where we have 4 knowns, the reviver can out , the pussy killer can out themselves and puts the village at 6 knowns out of 15 and me a likely villager left and the wolves deep in the shit. the wolves can't fake out since it just reveals themselves. The wolves have to discredit me and here is rilla trying his best. The reviver and pussy killer don't even have to out themselves , they just have to avoid being shot or lynched. THe wolves have to eat the knowns at night and hope that one other person doesn't prove themselves a villager else its game over for them.

to keep the pussy killer safe and hidden, known villagers should say who they are going to shoot each night that its possible out of the unknown villagers and stick to it. the pussykiller can then make sure that he doesn't get shot by choosing someone who won't be shooting himself. The extra unknowns dieing should then tip the balance of numbers in the villages favour. The wolves can't counter by outing as the pussy killer as one of the known villagers then puts himself forward to shoot the claimed pussy killer. if hes a wolf instead , the real pussy killer makes sure that the wolf dies by the person he nominates.

argue against this strategy rilla

Lynch Rilla

[GatorJH]

Cmon bikes and pascal, hurry up and post so we can remove inactivity from our lynch criteria. It doesn't help us when so many votes are on these two, it's a nice place for wolves to hide whilst appearing to be pro-town.

Ong hoping his fellow Fed will show up?

This game is different seeing as we have a reviver. We should probably lynch someone who will be useful if revived. Bikes is better than pascal on this basis, but he'd need to at least convince the reviver that he's going to participate. Dan has made it clear that before he modkills, he will warn us well in advance. If that warning comes, then we should consider lynching. Until then, voting for them is a wasted vote imo.

My guess here is that Bikes hadn't shown up in the wolf den yet so Ong was hoping to build some villager cred in case we decided to lynch and inactive.

Yeah you have a point about two inactives, we can only lynch one. I'm expecting bikes to emerge, it would be strange for him to sign up after missing so many games, and then not bother, especially with dan being mod. IIRC bikes and dan have met up IRL and are friends. Plus, bikes is a good villager, especially at endgame, so I'm reluctant to lynch him purely due to activity.

Pascal is the better lynch of the two imo.

Now he switches his stance on which inactive to lynch. Why?


Bikes then shows up and make the following post:

jyms is talking an awful lot for day 1 dunno why. either you give yourself away as a villager early and get shot/nommed/killed whatever it is this game or you give yourself away as a wolf. w/e about missing 2/5 inactives. no stratagem would be that obvious.

***video deleted to make it easier to read***

normally i'd go with gabe on day 1 but seeing as he wants to lynch me (for totally justified reasons :[ )

i'll go with a pascal unless he shows up seeing as hes gonna be modkilled

As a villager, he of all people should be willing to give Pascal the maximum amount of time

rescind pascal

lynch eug

gabe far more valuable than eugmac and i dont want to lose gabe day1

The best evidence so far that Bikes is a fed, imo. At this point there were several people who had 2 votes and Gabe had 3. He makes this statement, but doesn't explain at all why he chose Eug over Wuf, Jyms or daven. It's almost like he was trying to buddy up to villager gabe (which wolves like to do sometimes).

Well I didn't notice jack vote for him when I rescinded. I'm past that post of daven's now, and I'm not disliking him as much. Sure that post I quoted was dodgy, but his following posts aren't so bad. So I'll wait until I'm up to this page before deciding who to vote. Eug isn't a bad choice either.

Shortly after that Ong made this post and we definitely know that Feds don't like to be on the same wagon if at all possible.

In fact, Ong's very next post was this.....

I didn't rescind my eug vote?

Ok, just to ensure there's no confusion...

rescind eugmac

Wolf bandwagon separation?

I am through Day 1 now and still very convinced Bikes is a Fed.

[NightGizmo]

i think the best lynch choices tonight are nightgizmo jackvance or aubrey.

Do you have any evidence or reasons for any of these? Your random one-liners without any explanation or reason make me want to rage-lynch you out of spite. Try helping out the village and actually posting something useful.

[daven]

I am through Day 1 now and still very convinced Bikes is a Fed.

you';ll enjoy the bit where bikes argues that pascal should get to make the vig night kill etc

[NightGizmo]

And I agree with daven, I would still like to have someone explain how lynching him was a better choice than lynching pascal?

I think anyone not wanting to lynch him could be very much a fed. It's a total advantage on day 2 for them to get an extra villager kill at night.

JKDS made the argument against voting for Pascal, which is why I switched my vote. I found it highly unlikely that JKDS would have fake-outed as the angel (as a wolf), especially given that the wolf team knew that Ong's role was revealed to the seer. I assume everyone else thought the same, because at that point the Pascal discussion mostly died.

If you want to argue that the Pascal modkill was intentionally driven by a fed, then you'd have to make a case for JKDS as wolf.

Also -- I assume the wolves were hoping to nom the reviver/seer and block the seer on night 2, then kill wuf on night 3, thus preventing any more lookups. If they missed, they could kill wuf on night 3 and still prevent us from getting any more lookup results. So I get why they didn't nom wuf, but I don't know how they made Hoopy as a special.

[GatorJH]

Bikes' first post on Day 2....

4am going to sleep. will read when i wake up. congrats angel on teh save obv. lynching pascal on day 1 would have been a poor choice.

Totally contradicts his post on day 1

lynch aubrey

super intresting you put forth such a long ass defense so early in a day when theres only like 2 votes against you. also in gabe we trust.

I am not reading all of the posts, but am pretty sure there was already heat on Aubrey at this point so meh on this post.

says once

Trying to clarify the angel's save capabilities. Wolf trying to get info?

ok so unless i've read these rules wrong, which are confusing as fuck to begin with, we have until night 3 to use our revive.

so strategically we should use it on someone who owns at this game so we can know if they are a gtd villager and rez them and if not, one less super good wolf amirite?

the choices remain on when to use it. there is a non 0% chance the rezzer dies tonight which would be bad. so we should use it now and not take that chance because after re-reading the rules i'm not sure of how big of an edge the village has.

So I vote either gabe or gator gets lynched today and rezzed tonight. I think those are the two most dangerous people and the two biggest carries in WW.

Oh it also goes without saying that Vig "pussy slayer? wtf dan?" should not shoot anyone atm because losing 2 people sucks.

lynch gabe

So on Day 1 he doesn't think Gabe should be lynched, but now he is ok with it? Could it be that they discussed getting myself or Gabe killed on Day 2, revived then nommed again on night 3?

fkkkkk u pascal. stall this game as long as possible and then have the village agree on someone to shoot and use pascal as the killer

just trying to look villagery without really adding value.

rescind gabe

Rescinded Gabe when wuf outed Ong, but didn't bold Ong.

i want you to be right so we can win but i also want you to be wrong because it will make me happy that you typed all that out and were wrong after puffing it up to be gods gift to ww

He makes this post after Wuf's epic Gabe and Daven are Feds post. We already know how that turned out.

i'm about to head out for the evening and won't probably be back until tomorrow afternoon. i'm not a fed/wolf/whateverhgdshalkgjhlas but i'm pretty sure this sun has set so....

when I get lynched these are my reads.

wufwugy is super try harding these games and probably not a fed given the super long winded posts about tl'dr could be summed up so much easier for much less reading.

jyms is doing nothing but constantly posting misdirection this game and probably should not live past mid game.

GATOR IS PLAYING THIS GAME?

i never know what level gabe is on, all i know is that every training video i've ever seen him in describes him as being one step ahead and i can confirm this after playing live with him in vegas. gabe is either super valuable to the village or super detrimental. he should def die by day 3 but not day 1 because no one can work magic on day 1 and it's a waste of a super valuable villager if you miss that 1/5 chance he's a wolf on day 1. if gabe is indeed a fed i would literally disregard every post he's made.

i dunno wtf daven is doing this game, he could easily be a wolf or a trying to appear like a wolfy villager like i do every game so i can make it to midgame- late game. which is a super op strat. farm information and wreck people late.

people say ong is a wolf and who am i to argue

nightgizmo is calling people out for posting no content yet posting little himself so use that info fwiw.

keith no idea

rilla is probably town but i cant be certain

pascal still mia

aubery is still new at this game so i cant tell if she's just confused in general but i think shes probably town a majority of the time as well.

no idea on imsavy either. no phone+ no internet sounds horrible if true.

no idea on anyone else i forgot either.

Makes this long post which references several people and could be used to direct village away from other Feds if he is lynched. Not a lot of solid info here imo.

vig dont forget to shoot someone and use pascal as the shooter otherwise he's a wasted death with no benefit to the village and a 1/4.5 chance at a wolf is not bad at this point in the game.

Panic'd wolf giving horrible advice?

i also still think jyms could be fed >35% of the time just based on all his random I MUST KEEP MESELF ALIVE warble garbles.

nothing major here.

but then again ongbonga calls jyms out in a few posts which would be unlikely if jyms is a wolf

Fence sitting? Notice he doesn't strongly back Jyms as a villager, just casually mentions it.

i think the best lynch choices tonight are nightgizmo jackvance or aubrey.

i still have no clue wtf jyms is doing but i don't get the wolfy vibe from him. its more the chicken with it's head cut off vibe. i am like 95% positive that luco is for sure villager based on how early ong voted to lynch him day 1. and imsavy is probably town 80%+ of the time based on ongbonga's interaction with him imo.

And now we are back to the original post that got me looking at him. Notice that Aubrey is now at the top of his list even though he thought she was town earlier? He also doesn't mention JV earlier, but now wants to lynch him and throws Gizmo in that mix as well. My read on this is that Gizmo may be the "misdirection" Fed but not sure about that one yet.

I'm not sure how Bikes isn't a fed like 90% of the time here.

[NightGizmo]

My read on this is that Gizmo may be the "misdirection" Fed but not sure about that one yet.

Eh, I think if you re-read my posts you'll change your mind, unless you think I would push bikes' wagon forward yesterday while daven's was still forming.

[GatorJH]

Eh, I think if you re-read my posts you'll change your mind, unless you think I would push bikes' wagon forward yesterday while daven's was still forming.

That would certainly be a good defense and I was focused just on Bikes with that review.

[daven]

ong lists 3 villagers in his post 91 on day 1, would he list 3 villagers or two?

You're hunting wolves? You have your vote on me, excuse me if I find that a little amusing. What am I doing? I'm town hunting. I got JKDS, mojo and gizmo right now.

at this point (post 165) both pascal and bikes were mia. I'm surprised that ng chose to lynch bikes over pascal in this spot. Makes sense if they're both wolves and bikes hadn't turned up in the den yet, not sure if it makes sense if ng is a villager?

rescind jyms, his explanation works for day 1 (esp with 2 inactives), although I'm not too keen on his new, balanced play style. We'll see how that plays out.

lynch bikes for inactivity.

this is followed by some forced sounding interplay between ong and ng that results in ng moving his lynch from bikes to pascal

Ong/JKDS -- what is your take on lynching inactives? That's been my standard strat on day 1 (I've given my arguments for it in multiple games), but my only experience with WW is from this forum. Is it standard to eventually land on inactives rather than allow them to be modkilled?

then ong with the terrible logic

This game is different seeing as we have a reviver. We should probably lynch someone who will be useful if revived. Bikes is better than pascal on this basis, but he'd need to at least convince the reviver that he's going to participate. Dan has made it clear that before he modkills, he will warn us well in advance. If that warning comes, then we should consider lynching. Until then, voting for them is a wasted vote imo.

obv don't lynch an inactive based on being revived cos lfdo

then this post where i don't really understand his rationale. But could be consistent with bikes having turned up in the den?

But if a player is modkilled for inactivity, how could they have possibly convinced us that they would be useful to revive? Sounds like a catch 22.

You do make a good point, though -- if Rong will give us ample warning, we can ignore the inactives until they are under threat of modkilling. Although with 2 inactives, we might want to kill off one of them and then ignore the other, so we don't end up sitting on day 2 with 2 potential modkills looming. Yes/no?

I've only played with bikes once before, and his attitude was "nothing good happens in the first 3 days, wake me later" (he was on the villager side, he might have been a special -- too lazy to check). So I'm inclined to think that bikes' inactivity means he's an uninterested villager -- so, I guess....

rescind bikes, lynch pascal

[wufwugy]

I have not once found a wolf in the early stages in any game I've played, but I also have a perfect record in the endgame. So maybe I should learn to just not trust myself until the end. Anyways, I like Jyms JV Bikes and Aubrey

rescind JV lynch Bikes

maybe

Yep. I hadn't revisited what my actions would be until after the Day was over, but I did decide I would shoot Ong instead of you. I wanted the wolves to think I was going to shoot you because if you're a wolf it could have prompted them to block the shot and if you're a villager it could have prompted them to nom somebody else because they thought I was hellbent on you dying. I've learned I have to treat each new game day as a reset

[wufwugy]

If Gizmo is a wolf, he has improved

[daven]

pascal hasn't been active at any time in the game and as its nearly 4am here and deadline is 4 hours chances are he aint coming. i think with all the info we get from a daven death it outweighs a modkill of pascal since reviver is a limited time deal and it helps confirm/ disprove wufs theory and the helps influence vigs actions tonight.

lynch daven

at this point i was tied with bikes for votes, why didn't you mention/consider his wagon?

[daven]

I may have to compensate the wolves in some way. That was not supposed to be sent.

well, pascal villager was supposed to turn up = quits?

[daven]

my current partner has a "code red" system whereby I have been trained that if at any time she says (usually shouts) "code red Dan, code red" I am to instantly shut the fuck up, as there have been a few times where I have told inappropriate stories and/or put my foot in it in pretty awkward ways (usually for other people).

my partner wants to implement a similar system, first proposed it in early 2009 i think. but... how dull

[NightGizmo]

at this point (post 165) both pascal and bikes were mia. I'm surprised that ng chose to lynch bikes over pascal in this spot.

My initial choice of bikes over pascal was without much thought except "In the games I've played with bikes and pascal, pascal participates better. So kill bikes." I reconsidered, which I explained in the post you don't understand below, which I then re-explained in post 272 (linked here for brevity).

this is followed by some forced sounding interplay between ong and ng that results in ng moving his lynch from bikes to pascal

Not forced on my end -- I asked both Ong and JKDS about how the village should deal with the inactives, but JKDS didn't engage. I figured that it was highly unlikely that both were wolves, so if at least one was a villager then they would have to answer honestly about strategy or the villager would call out any obvious bad advice.

then this post where i don't really understand his rationale. But could be consistent with bikes having turned up in the den?

See post 272, linked above.

[NightGizmo]

I was happy with a bikes wagon yesterday, nothing today has changed that.

lynch bikes

[JKDS]

Yay Lynch the bikes!

Lynch bikes

[wufwugy]

imsavy is probably town 80%+ of the time based on ongbonga's interaction with him imo.

Um what? That, um, never, um, happened. I went over all of Savy's posts and not once did he talk to Ong. Sounds like something that was discussed in the wolfchat or something

We may have found two wolves in Bikes and Savy. And possibly a third in how adamant Aubrey was about how lock villager Savy was

[wufwugy]

Oh also Savy did one of those "I'm here now I'll read up and post thoughts" but never came back and posted thoughts. I'm pretty sure nub wolves love doing this

[GatorJH]

I was happy with a bikes wagon yesterday, nothing today has changed that.

lynch bikes

This makes me think that they aren't BOTH wolves. If they were I would expect Gizmo to focus on a defense and not jump on Bikes' bandwagon.

[wufwugy]

This makes me think that they aren't BOTH wolves. If they were I would expect Gizmo to focus on a defense and not jump on Bikes' bandwagon.

Gizmo's wolf game is all about sitting in the back of the bus. I feel like he wouldn't have changed that since he hasn't been met with any obstacles that demonstrate a need to

[GatorJH]

Gizmo's wolf game is all about sitting in the back of the bus. I feel like he wouldn't have changed that since he hasn't been met with any obstacles that demonstrate a need to

Ummmm, I have no idea what that means Mr. Wufinator. Does that mean you think they can still be on the same team or not?

[gabe]

can anyone explain why they wouldn't kill wuf?

is it because there is a chance the wolves thought the angel might protect him?

that wouldn't make sense since we were led to believe the angel is a 1 shot. so why would they not kill him? seems like they would only do that if they were 100% on the seer, and that seems impossible.

why?

[Luco]

Gator you missed the quote code around the last one of bikes in post #783. Confused the crap out of me for a minute there.

[Luco]

can anyone explain why they wouldn't kill wuf?

is it because there is a chance the wolves thought the angel might protect him?

that wouldn't make sense since we were led to believe the angel is a 1 shot. so why would they not kill him? seems like they would only do that if they were 100% on the seer, and that seems impossible.

why?

I for sure thought wuf was a dead duck. But my guess is thewolves blocked the seer so they could have a free stab at banking a special withoutwuf getting a lookup – look at the order of operations, if they left the wufnom one more night he couldn’t be revived.

[Luco]

RANDOM LARGE TEXT ALERT WTF

[gabe]

they let him live so hopefully the PK would make him the vig (and hopefully he would kill me??) ??? that's a bad choice... but maybe there's something else going on?

[gabe]

ok. luco you a fed? you're on my list now

[Luco]

yup thats happening.

everyone be on your sharpest game because IM A CONFIRMED VILLAGER i can be ascrazy accusatory as i want

Lol, go nuts man

[Luco]

Gabe ffs stop editing posts you noob

[Luco]

Um what? That, um, never, um, happened. I went over all of Savy's posts and not once did he talk to Ong. Sounds like something that was discussed in the wolfchat or something

We may have found two wolves in Bikes and Savy. And possibly a third in how adamant Aubrey was about how lock villager Savy was

Ong bolded savy day 1 page 1 for the offensive lack of an apostrophe. He immediately rescinded and bolded you for 'calling him paranoid'. Savy did indeed respond to Ong.

Also, you're wrong if you think that Aubrey and Savy are wolves together after that lock comment. Think about it, if Aubrey is a wolf:

Savy villager - Aubrey just removed an out from her deck. I don't see wolves using the word 'lock' on day 1 so easily. Disagree, sure. Agree, certainly. But not lock.

Savy wolf: crazy stupid and completely unnecessary association. I don't see any wolf in the history of ever being this obvious and dumb.

[Luco]

ok. luco you a fed? you're on my list now

Lol nope.

[Luco]

It's night 2. Specials PM me. And don't be waiting for info before you do as you ain't gonna get it.

If I'm reading this right, the wolves didn't know Ong got looked up until the end of the night. Possibly just as day 2 opened. Would have put them on the back foot a bit.

[Luco]

Jackvance bottom of post #388:

...Also, to say something out loud a lot of people are probably thinking but not voicing, I have some wolfy tells, but they're very much in the sense of 'but could be a special too'. So I'm not gonna go into those for obvious reasons, will have to do some more thinking (bad hangover atm) and see some more posts to get into spotting wolves. It looks like we are nicely on track because the biggest threat imo in this game is the wolfes killing specials early.

You acknowledge wolves killing specials is a threat, yet you also say 'I'm either a wolf or a special'.

When does a special ever say this?

[Keith]

#133

How can you put pressure on someone who hasn't shown up yet?

that was in response to hoopy lynching pascal.

#239

This game is different seeing as we have a reviver. We should probably lynch someone who will be useful if revived. Bikes is better than pascal on this basis, but he'd need to at least convince the reviver that he's going to participate. Dan has made it clear that before he modkills, he will warn us well in advance. If that warning comes, then we should consider lynching. Until then, voting for them is a wasted vote imo.

funny how both ong and rilla were trying to warn people off voting for the people who were inactive.Ong left it so that he could claim credit if bikes didn't show up and got lynched. pascal was a villager so wouldn't have benefitted the wolves. Is it because bikes is a wolf. We have a known wolf protecting the absentees for some reason, is it cos the only unknown was a fellow wolf.
Gator has to remember the game where bigred + noob didn't turn up and the noob was a wolf .bigred turned up and i used the bigred timings and things gator had been saying to get wolf gator lynched early in the game

[Luco]

JV's early thoughts:

I can say this atm. Rilla, I'm not too worried about him because he's a good villager, but imo not a good wolf (ie easy to spot if he is). For me Gator is the same. I know everyone will disagree with me on that, but as I've said (or hinted at) in previous games, in a game before his long playing hiatus I was able to spot his wolf game, so I'm not too worried.

JKDS, he's tricky. Dunno for sure how to go about distinguishing his wolf game from his villager game. He plays a strong game either way I think, because of his experience from playing mafia games outside of FTR. This makes it hard to gauge what level he is on.

Ong, I can never understand his reasoning very much so I'll have to see more from him. Jyms, the fact that he plays the game in an exact way to be able to be a better wolf is, hm, kinda makes me want to lynch him for that reason alone because it'll be tough to read him, but not gonna jump the gun. Wuf, I think I can spot if he is a wolf by dissecting his reasoning once he starts to post more openly. Gabe can be tricky but he has some subtle tells to look for.

Just some preliminary thoughts here.

Then his thoughts on Eug after Gabe's bold:

Dunno about Eugmac though. He's kinda being who he is, that's what it looks like to me. But because of his style of posting (or, his personality) he'll make a very dangerous and difficult to spot wolf.

So I'm tricky and Eug is dangerous and difficult to spot, but he has a bead on some of the more experienced players. Granted he has more history with Wuf/rilla/gator, but I find it a bit of a stretch that a villager JV would be worried about Eug's style.

I certainly did not get 'dangerous and difficult to spot wolf' from Eug's first game, he was basically confirmed villager by the end of day 1. I figured if Eug flopped wolf it would come out fairly quickly - and it nearly did.

[Luco]

Oh and yes, JV and Gator were my day 1 hunches. So, like wuf did with Daven and Gabe, I may be suffering from confirmation bias here. Draw your own conclusions.

[jackvance]

Jackvance bottom of post #388:



You acknowledge wolves killing specials is a threat, yet you also say 'I'm either a wolf or a special'.

When does a special ever say this?

Sorry but what? I was just saying I had such reads on other people. But it's not something you can really go into because you don't want to be accidentally outing specials either.

Just got up, but had to say this quickly. Some more reading to do.

[Luco]

Is it seriously between bikes and daven at this point... no votes for ong, and none for Pascal?

OK, well, bikes has posted next to nothing... certainly nothing I have gotten a read off of, so

lynch bikes

I think the greatest help I can be to the village is to say that this game makes no sense to me.

I see shadows in everything. I no longer trust anything I think about this game, since anything that makes sense to a noob is leagues beneath an experienced player. I had Ong as more Vil than wolf... apparently wrong. jyms and JKDS have seemed wolfy from the start, and now the vibe is that they're lock vil's.

So my reads are worthless, and that means my votes are worthless, so do with that what you will. I'll keep doing my best to help, but I must admit that it seems my best is of little-to-no use to anyone except as a distraction.

Bzzzt, wrong answer. Your reads and votes will always count.

Your best help to the village is to KEEP POSTING. It's not about being right, it's about showing the village what your thought processes are, letting them see inside your head. We can then judge if your approach seems genuine, regardless of whether it's right or not. Getting yourself confirmed as a villager would be beyond huge right now, so if you really want to help, post!

Seeing shadows in everything is super standard, learn to love it. Just don't forget to tell us about the shadows.

[jackvance]

About eug, maybe I should have added the word "potentially" in that quote there. As in, he's an extremely rational player, to the point where he also can miss more natural things but be stuck in analytical reasoning. But potentially he could be hard to read if he just sticks to doing that as a wolf (hard to say yet after 1 game). I got this realization last game when I saw him go deep into the question whether or not some people were trying to fake a big discussion.

But like I also said in that quote, that didn't seem to be the case now. I know he has to be very stressed with his upcoming wedding, as I've mentioned a few times in this game already, and his playstyle seemed in line with that as a villager.

[Luco]

Sorry but what? I was just saying I had such reads on other people. But it's not something you can really go into because you don't want to be accidentally outing specials either.

Just got up, but had to say this quickly. Some more reading to do.

Oh, so it was 'I have wolfy tells on other people', not 'I'm giving off wolfy tells'? Yeah that makes much more sense now.

[jackvance]

Do you have any evidence or reasons for any of these? Your random one-liners without any explanation or reason make me want to rage-lynch you out of spite. Try helping out the village and actually posting something useful.

Villagery post from gizmo from my pov. When I went to sleep yesterday I was left with this exact taste in my mouth. But I didn't want to comment on it yet at that time because, well, he mentions me and I always try to be careful to not get the spite-reaction because of that.

[a500lbgorilla]

ok so why is rilla going so hard after me.
realy? since you are so adamant about this why didn't you comment about it just after i posted the tally and hoopy posted


Not a word from you that i could be doing it as a wolf at that stage. However if it helps to prove i'm a villager we get to a situation where we have 4 knowns, the reviver can out , the pussy killer can out themselves and puts the village at 6 knowns out of 15 and me a likely villager left and the wolves deep in the shit. the wolves can't fake out since it just reveals themselves. The wolves have to discredit me and here is rilla trying his best. The reviver and pussy killer don't even have to out themselves , they just have to avoid being shot or lynched. THe wolves have to eat the knowns at night and hope that one other person doesn't prove themselves a villager else its game over for them.

to keep the pussy killer safe and hidden, known villagers should say who they are going to shoot each night that its possible out of the unknown villagers and stick to it. the pussykiller can then make sure that he doesn't get shot by choosing someone who won't be shooting himself. The extra unknowns dieing should then tip the balance of numbers in the villages favour. The wolves can't counter by outing as the pussy killer as one of the known villagers then puts himself forward to shoot the claimed pussy killer. if hes a wolf instead , the real pussy killer makes sure that the wolf dies by the person he nominates.

argue against this strategy rilla

Lynch Rilla

I'd like to make two general points. One is that you're the 3rd in my list. And two is that I'm not adamant about anything w.r.t our 'discussion' yesterday. You brought these points up and I gave my opinion.

I'd like to walk through my recall of the events. I came into the thread confident that the last three wolves were jyms > jv = hoopy. When I saw hoopy colorfully dead, I thought he died a wolf and so fired out my last two because "I knew it!" My confidence wasn't just that I had reason to believe they were wolves, but that I had reason to believe most others were villagers (or be suspicious that they're villagers).

When I realized hoopy was the seer and I have missed a wolf, I went back to my list and found that I hadn't found anything that made you a villager, you just never did anything suspicious. Basically I read the thread and came away without really noticing you. How the oversight occured, I dunno.

You then come at me and say "Of course I'm a villager, I have done these 3 villagery things. 1, count votes for wuf; 2, give strategy suggestions; 3, suggest the reviver out".

I return that these things can be easily done by a wolf. It takes no unique villager perspective to run through these tasks, and if you find them so proof-positive of your villagerdom, that should show how savvy a wolf would be to do them.

Then you jump an emotional octave, say I'm rubbish and talking out of my ass and what not. I try to clarify the conversation and now we're here. In my mind, I'm just now noticing you. In you're mind, I have waged a long and sustained campaign to tarnish what is a sterling villager record.

I just don't get what's going on in your head.

One general comment before work, if not jyms, JV is a wolf more frequently than bikes is in this spot. In my most humble of opinions.

[jackvance]

Oh, so it was 'I have wolfy tells on other people', not 'I'm giving off wolfy tells'? Yeah that makes much more sense now.

Yup. I know that every one of the more regular players in this game will be making this distinction too about others, because being a wolf and being a village special can sometimes elicit similar responses. Ie, you notice something different about someone, but it could be either, and this means it is very difficult to publicly go into such a read because you might accidentally tip off the wolves to a special, and in any case put that player in a very awkward spot if he is indeed a special.

I mentioned this mostly for the benefit of the newer players. As it's kind of an unwritten rule that most people will adhere to.

[a500lbgorilla]

In this spot means from my perspective. I don't know about bikes and I've said as much already.

[jyms]

can anyone explain why they wouldn't kill wuf?

is it because there is a chance the wolves thought the angel might protect him?

that wouldn't make sense since we were led to believe the angel is a 1 shot. so why would they not kill him? seems like they would only do that if they were 100% on the seer, and that seems impossible.

why?

I think they thought there was a chance Wuf was getting the shot and taking out you. Why block a chance at taking you out for free? Foiled obviously

[jyms]

Sorry, that was a little late. that was meant for the gabe post at the bottom of the last page. Missed a whole page over night, reading now

[Luco]

I hope it's quiet because everyone is reviewing. I'm personally trying to come at this from a new perspective and considering the possibility that both rilla and jyms could be town. mind.blown. It's not impossible folks.

I think the fact that Savy has been mentioned over and over without anything coming of it is a wolf tell. He's getting to 'post more or die' anyway, so fuck it.

Thoughts on [ong] [savy] [bikes] [gator]?

Gator is on there for his disappearance at the start of day 2 - if legit, he's got some damn shit timing because all the wolves woulda been scrambling around that time. But I could swap him for a better target, gotta finish this read through.