Drug smugglers and Feds gameplay thread

[jyms]

I hope it's quiet because everyone is reviewing. I'm personally trying to come at this from a new perspective and considering the possibility that both rilla and jyms could be town. mind.blown. It's not impossible folks.

I think the fact that Savy has been mentioned over and over without anything coming of it is a wolf tell. He's getting to 'post more or die' anyway, so fuck it.

Thoughts on [ong] [savy] [bikes] [gator]?

Gator is on there for his disappearance at the start of day 2 - if legit, he's got some damn shit timing because all the wolves woulda been scrambling around that time. But I could swap him for a better target, gotta finish this read through.

I have the same list except Rilla over gator. I've never seen gator too involved early. Rilla is fed, I am 98% sure of this. I know I am dead if he's not with all the heat I've taken from him so lynching him is my demise if he comes up town.

[Luco]

I'm just worried this is like the wuf / daven feud from last game, or the Luco / pascal feud from the game before. Wolves sit back and let you both take a rage dump on each other.

I haven't fully decided on either of you yet. You can't both be right though.

[Keith]

I'm just going to fire from the hip, but I'm going to say that the last wolf is Keith.

is what you wrote

I'd like to make two general points. One is that you're the 3rd in my list. And two is that I'm not adamant about anything w.r.t our 'discussion' yesterday. You brought these points up and I gave my opinion.

I'd like to walk through my recall of the events. I came into the thread confident that the last three wolves were jyms > jv = hoopy. When I saw hoopy colorfully dead, I thought he died a wolf and so fired out my last two because "I knew it!" My confidence wasn't just that I had reason to believe they were wolves, but that I had reason to believe most others were villagers (or be suspicious that they're villagers).

When I realized hoopy was the seer and I have missed a wolf, I went back to my list and found that I hadn't found anything that made you a villager, you just never did anything suspicious. Basically I read the thread and came away without really noticing you. How the oversight occured, I dunno.

and this is where you are totally illogical. you hadn't found anything that was suspicious about me ....but i'm supposedly the last wolf. You hadn't found anything that made me a villager . well its no bloody wonder when you later admit

Now I'll admit I don't know your role. I was really expecting Hoopy to be a wolf. But going over all the stuff I picked out from the thread, I didn't find anything to support your being in my villager pile. That may have been from my not really paying attention to your posts, I dunno. But other than bikes, everyone else had something that said villager to me.

so with you not paying attention to what i've done and written , you just happen to throw out there that i'm a wolf.Wolves will have done the maths on the known villagers: wolves and realized that the wolves are deep in the shit.Another person who proves that they are villagers and the game is over for the wolves.

You then come at me and say "Of course I'm a villager, I have done these 3 villagery things. 1, count votes for wuf; 2, give strategy suggestions; 3, suggest the reviver out".

I return that these things can be easily done by a wolf. It takes no unique villager perspective to run through these tasks, and if you find them so proof-positive of your villagerdom, that should show how savvy a wolf would be to do them.


Then you jump an emotional octave, say I'm rubbish and talking out of my ass and what not. I try to clarify the conversation and now we're here. In my mind, I'm just now noticing you. In you're mind, I have waged a long and sustained campaign to tarnish what is a sterling villager record.

I just don't get what's going on in your head.

One general comment before work, if not jyms, JV is a wolf more frequently than bikes is in this spot. In my most humble of opinions.

So why are you so adamant that all the things that i have done is a wolf gaining cover, one maybe but all of them seriously hinders the wolves. I always defend myself when attacked , and usually the people that attack me turn out to be wolves when i am a villager. When i see someone acting differently or suspiciously i stay on them. day one i stayed on wuf because he was different. Turns out it was because he was a special.

you said you hadn't noticed that i hadn't done anything to make me a villager, i point out what i've done and the only possible explanation you can come up with is that i'm a wolf doing it for cover. How about the obvious , i'm just a villager just like virtually every other game i've played.

Also , why have you completely ignored the fact that i pointed out in my last post that you quoted that the pussy killer outing and a known villager virtually makes the game a village win. you have to keep discrediting the things i've done otherwise the wolves lose.

lol at you now protecting bikes. what do wolves have to do....stay alive ... so heres a proposition for you and the village....lynch me today but whoever lynches me today must lynch rilla tomorrow. by lynching me you'll see i'm a villager. in that knowledge , look at why rilla is trying so hard to discredit me. Anyone that wimps out of lynching rilla tomorrow is one of his fellow wolves and should be lynched afterwards.

This isn't me trying to save myself .....this is me putting myself forward as todays lynch candidate so that the pussy killer doesn't get lynched today and the pussy killer will then get to act tomorrow night.there is no upside in this for me . I'm hoping that the fact that pussy killer gets a chance to act tomorrow and rilla likely being a wolf who will die will offset the loss of someone who has done a lot to show he is village.

if you lynch me today, remember my reasoning , rilla's actions and lynch him tomorrow.Before the kill is confirmed i want to go through and give some thoughts on a couple of "unknowns" that i think are villagers and the reasons why. Got to get some work done so it will be 3 or 4 hours before i'm back on so make sure the wolves can't rush the wagon on me through before i get to post.

[GatorJH]

Gator you missed the quote code around the last one of bikes in post #783. Confused the crap out of me for a minute there.

Sorry about that.


For everyone else, the last section should read as follows:

i think the best lynch choices tonight are nightgizmo jackvance or aubrey.

i still have no clue wtf jyms is doing but i don't get the wolfy vibe from him. its more the chicken with it's head cut off vibe. i am like 95% positive that luco is for sure villager based on how early ong voted to lynch him day 1. and imsavy is probably town 80%+ of the time based on ongbonga's interaction with him imo.

And now we are back to the original post that got me looking at him. Notice that Aubrey is now at the top of his list even though he thought she was town earlier? He also doesn't mention JV earlier, but now wants to lynch him and throws Gizmo in that mix as well. My read on this is that Gizmo may be the "misdirection" Fed but not sure about that one yet.

I'm not sure how Bikes isn't a fed like 90% of the time here.

[NightGizmo]

can anyone explain why they wouldn't kill wuf?

is it because there is a chance the wolves thought the angel might protect him?

that wouldn't make sense since we were led to believe the angel is a 1 shot. so why would they not kill him? seems like they would only do that if they were 100% on the seer, and that seems impossible.

why?

I don't think they were aiming for the seer -- I think they were gambling and hoping to hit the reviver. If they could hit the reviver, then they prevent a confirmed villager from being revived and they prevent the village from getting any more lookups (they could kill wuf on Night 3 so he can't communicate the lookups anymore). Even if they miss the reviver and just hit a regular villager, they still prevented lookups (night 2 = blocked and then the night 3 lookup is silenced once they nom wuf). So going for the reviver was a freeroll.

[GatorJH]

Oh and yes, JV and Gator were my day 1 hunches. So, like wuf did with Daven and Gabe, I may be suffering from confirmation bias here. Draw your own conclusions.

Please do tell why I was your "day 1 hunch"?

[Luco]

Please do tell why I was your "day 1 hunch"?

Post #122:

Yeah day1 is always a hot mess, I'm mildy amused that jkds and rilla are taking it so seriously. As for suspicion - unless there's about 14 wolves I'm not getting close to solving this yet, so in the meantime I'm gonna prod some peeps with my prodding stick. PROD!

What I was trying to say is that the wolves aren't likely to make any glaring mistakes and in all likelihood will sound villagery enough on day1 to make themselves 'not a good pick'. Every post from both you & gator could easily fit that criteria, I possibly have a couple of villager leans but you ain't one of them... yet.

Suspicion on you & Gabe rests on jyms being a wolf and it's so tenuous I noted it with a hint of sarcasm. We'll get to the inactives in due course, in the meantime I will assign you zero villager points for your defense post. Enjoy

Basically you & JV were a day 1 hunch because you were blending in really well. You know what it's like when you really want to be right about shit.

[GatorJH]

One general comment before work, if not jyms, JV is a wolf more frequently than bikes is in this spot. In my most humble of opinions.

I would love to hear your thoughts on this. I can't find a reason to think Bikes is NOT a Fed and I always have a shit hard time reading JV so any thoughts here would be helpful.

[GatorJH]

You know what it's like when you really want to be right about shit.

LOL, well unfortunately for you, you are at least half wrong on this one with me.

[Luco]

LOL, well unfortunately for you, you are at least half wrong on this one with me.

Yeah but fortunately for the village nobody listens to me lol

[Luco]

...also the reviver is a one shot donkey and thats used up now......he should out himself now before the wolves use it as an out. or if they do ...its a guarnateed dead wolf by killing both.

I think I'm gonna wait a bit, maybe out tomorrow instead.

[Luco]

ohwait

[jackvance]

lol luco

Luco is almost always a villager here, but I can tell you now luco you're never gonna be able to fool me as a wolf again, your thought processes are too much in line with my own.

Second time now in this game I call a lock villager, first wuf, and now you out as a special too.

Not sure if I should lynch bikes or savy now. Gator makes a good case for bikes, whose play imo can be surmized into 'say stuff without giving a reasoning and repeat what other prominent villagers are saying'. But I also want to put some focus on Savy. He's posting in other subforums, and is usually pretty apt to engage in discussions with everyone, but here he has been a non-presence so far. Being a wolf and discouraged/afraid to post is a decent explanation here.

[jackvance]

lynch bikes

Meh first things first.

[GatorJH]

I think I'm gonna wait a bit, maybe out tomorrow instead.

If this is true it blows the crap out of half of my theory.

Still think Bikes is Fed though!!!

[jackvance]

Are we possibly scaring of the first-timers MMM and savy? In the past half dozen games or so the newcomers have been very involved, so these guy not doing so looks fishy. But MMM aluded to being too confused to post so idk.

[NightGizmo]

Are we possibly scaring of the first-timers MMM and savy? In the past half dozen games or so the newcomers have been very involved, so these guy not doing so looks fishy. But MMM aluded to being too confused to post so idk.

It's also a wolf tell when a lot of a person's posts are "I'm confused and don't know what to say", so I don't give any villager cred to that post from MMM.

[GatorJH]

It's also a wolf tell when a lot of a person's posts are "I'm confused and don't know what to say", so I don't give any villager cred to that post from MMM.

Totally agree here and I could definitely see a wolf like Ong telling him to play that way.

[jackvance]

Totally agree here and I could definitely see a wolf like Ong telling him to play that way.

While I agree with this principle 100%, wouldn't a wolf ong tell them NOT to play that way?

[jyms]

I could switch to bikes for a lynch too, but I'm not getting of the rilla wagon except to lynch bikes

[aubreymcfate]

Bikes is suspicious because his posts are overly terse and he seems to pop in and out at random, but these are all things you can chalk up to play style. what really stands out for me is the fact that Gabe is now confirmed villager, and as Gator pointed out in post 779:

The best evidence so far that Bikes is a fed, imo. At this point there were several people who had 2 votes and Gabe had 3. He makes this statement, but doesn't explain at all why he chose Eug over Wuf, Jyms or daven. It's almost like he was trying to buddy up to villager gabe (which wolves like to do sometimes).

gabe is an esteemed player and from what i gather, is valued in the end game. not a bad person to latch on to if you're a wolf.


the only thing that makes bikes look villagery is how eager others are to lynch him as well. at this juncture, after such a blow to the wolves, i would imagine that a wolf bandwagon would not last without some protest. he is my top choice at the moment though so

lynch bikes

also, and this could go either way on bikes being villager or wolf, i agree with bikes on his assessment of jyms. honestly, it seems to me that this being jyms's play style as a sloppy villager is way more likely than him being a wolf. why would he constantly play like this - you don't think the wolves would have help him enough so he wouldn't sound confused all the time?

if bikes is a wolf, him calling jyms town could be a ploy for villager cred, because it seems more thoughtful than lazily grabbing on to jyms's way-too-obviously fishy play.

at the same time, why would rilla being going so hard after jyms? Rilla is clearly a shrewd player… there's something really off about how hard he is going after jyms without considering the oddness of the whole thing. granted, I haven't played with Rilla before, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say it seems out of character.

[GatorJH]

While I agree with this principle 100%, wouldn't a wolf ong tell them NOT to play that way?

I dunno. Newbies are so much easier to get wolf tells off of that I could see him telling them to play that style more in early game as they get their feet wet, although he may not have let them get THIS far disengaged with the village.

[GatorJH]

It would be nice to hear from our confirmed villagers.

Wuf, Gabe, JKDS. Where are you guys?

[Savy]

Oh also Savy did one of those "I'm here now I'll read up and post thoughts" but never came back and posted thoughts. I'm pretty sure nub wolves love doing this

I've been through this, my internet got cut off and was out till Friday. Can verify it with VirginMedia if you like

Ong bolded savy day 1 page 1 for the offensive lack of an apostrophe. He immediately rescinded and bolded you for 'calling him paranoid'. Savy did indeed respond to Ong.

My response to Ong was just a jokey way of asking where my mistake was. I read my post over like 5 times and didn't have a clue where the mistake was.

Are we possibly scaring of the first-timers MMM and savy? In the past half dozen games or so the newcomers have been very involved, so these guy not doing so looks fishy. But MMM aluded to being too confused to post so idk.

I've basically been reading the forums for poker stuff recently and the odd post in that zimmerman thread. The only reason I've not been more active is because I've had some gay shit happen which left me with like 13 pages to catch up on and to tell the truth it's pretty hard to keep track of everything going on when you're not reading it as it happens.


It seems that Bikes and Gator are quite suspicious saying that I'm a villager 80% of the time when I don't see how I've really posted enough to give off any major reads and it seems that not posting is more of a wolf thing to do. Let's say it's 50/50 I'm a wolf (which I'd argue is more villager than I actually seem atm), then I don't see any reason why I'm not someone they'd push for unless I was a wolf. I wouldn't seem to offer a huge amount in terms of end game for the village at the moment so I'm not someone they'd want to get rid off.

[d0zer]

I think this is the right place for this... got this message from bikes:

go into the ww forum on ftr and tell them my cable is out and has been out for like 14 hours and it could be a while till it comes back up and that if they need to lynch me go for it.

[GatorJH]

It seems that Bikes and Gator are quite suspicious saying that I'm a villager 80% of the time when I don't see how I've really posted enough to give off any major reads and it seems that not posting is more of a wolf thing to do.

Where did I ever say you were villager 80% of the time? I know Ong said that, but not me.

[GatorJH]

I think this is the right place for this... got this message from bikes:

WTF???

[Savy]

Where did I ever say you were villager 80% of the time? I know Ong said that, but not me.

haha, seems I misread your post sorry.

and imsavy is probably town 80%+ of the time based on ongbonga's interaction with him imo.

Should have been in quotes in your post though tbf.

[GatorJH]

yeah, now I see where your confusion was. Sorry about the quote issue.

[Savy]

I did think it was incredibly strange you and Bikes had written what seemed to be the same thing.

Lynch Bikes

[daven]

can anyone explain why they wouldn't kill wuf?

is it because there is a chance the wolves thought the angel might protect him?

that wouldn't make sense since we were led to believe the angel is a 1 shot. so why would they not kill him? seems like they would only do that if they were 100% on the seer, and that seems impossible.

why?

they got to block the seer so there shouldn't have been a lookup last night
and wuf was pretty keen on getting you lynched = in their interest to keep alive a confirmed villager who is inflexible in his views on your role

[JKDS]

unvote bikes
Weird.

Anyway, my reads are pretty much the same as they were yesterday. Rilla has been wolfing hard today, and I can see JV and Gator wolfing as well now.

[JKDS]

Confirmed Villagers: Me, Wuf, Daven, Gabe

Villagery because of Ong: Jyms, Rilla, Imsavvy, Luco (roughly in order of towniness)

Wolfy: Bikes, MMM, JV

I think this is pretty close to right. Those absent were not incriminated by Ong in any way imho. Rilla seems super suspicious today, but the fact that I had hoopy in my villager list makes me hesitant to do lynch from that list. Lets stick with Bikes, MMM, JV

[gabe]

I think a wolf has bolded bikes today.

the evidence on him isn't really worth anything

and when it seemed like bikes was going to get lynched, the death note be left was very believable

[gabe]

why does Keith want the reviver to out? that seems bad for the village. if I were the reviver then I'd keep my mouth shut

[jyms]

Ya I think the reviver can keep it under wraps for now. We have enough confirmed villagers, not sure he should unless he sees a way for it to help us narrow down a fed.

Personally I still think that bikes could be fed but I am going to stick with my feelings that Rilla is.

[NightGizmo]

Luco already claimed to be the reviver, so that ship has sailed. There's no reason for the reviver to keep quiet -- his power was definitely a one-shot (it says so in the rules), so he has nothing to lose by outing. If Luco is the reviver -- a wolf doesn't gain much by claiming to be the reviver (it still makes them a 50% likely wolf in the eyes of the villager, which isn't very good for them). And if Luco just fake claimed, then the real reviver can speak up and put a lot of pressure on Luco (again -- he would be a 50% likely wolf, and one of the two claimed revivers would have to die to reveal another wolf).

Luco's claim puts him on the "likely villager" list until someone else speaks up. I think it was a good move.

[daven]

why does Keith want the reviver to out? that seems bad for the village. if I were the reviver then I'd keep my mouth shut

i read luco's post to read that he's already outed

[jyms]

Oh, wow, I thought he was asking for the riviver to out tomorrow. I figured he was leaving the game and didn't want to miss something. My bad

[Keith]

why does Keith want the reviver to out? that seems bad for the village. if I were the reviver then I'd keep my mouth shut

it means that it prevents a wagonned wolf from claiming that they are the reviver and gives the village an extra known . we have 4 knowns so far + luco has now outed as reviver + pussy killer. I've put myself forward as a safe lynch today as long as rilla gets lynched tomorrow.That ensures the pussy killer gets another shot so that they dpn't have to die. THe only out the wolves now have is to claim they are the pussy killer. If someone outs as the pussy killer, one of the known villagers can say that they will shoot the claimed pussy killer. the other known villages say that they will shoot a range of other villagers. then the pussy killer chooses which known villager gets the shot so that the pussy killer can stay hidden. 15 in the village and 6 knowns +add in a lock villager and a extra pussy killer shot amongst the unknowns and its a village win. two pussy killer shots and we don't need the "lock" villager for a village win .This is now just a numbers game and is the reason that rilla was going hard after me.
Just lynch me , find out i'm a villager then lynch rilla tomorrow. Wolves have to eat the knowns or they lose unless they bink the pussy killer tonight.

[MadMojoMonkey]

This game requires a great deal more time and patience than I originally signed up for. I was just going to quit, but that's pretty fucking childish and rude to you guys. So, I'm in, but I'm spending a lot less time on this than I have been. I think 1 - 2 hours a day is more than enough here. I've been spending a lot more than that, and it's not fun for me. Games are supposed to be fun. Take that how you will.

so...

Confirmed Vil's: Wuf, JKDS, Gabe, daven, (me)

High probable Vils: NightGizmo, jyms, aubreymcfate
- Gizmo basically cleared himself in my eyes with the tack he took against me yesterday
- jyms' early wolfiness was suspicious to me, but I feel he adequately cleared himself when on the chopping block.
- aubrey's candor seems quite calm and consistent, which will make me lean toward vil every time.

Suspected Vil's: Gator, JV, savy, Luco
- Gator is a wild card to me, but is slowly building cred.
- JV is on the line, and I could see a clever wolf there, but more vil to me
- savy is in his first game as am I, so I (perhaps overly so) relate to his struggle to make a quality contribution, and I offer him the benefit of the doubt.
- Luco had me thinking he was wolfy early on, but I have recently been more and more swayed that he is vil.

Suspected Wolves: rilla
- It's the anti-tell. He's always in there with long, detailed posts and just seeming like the Mayor of Vilville. Why would you put yourself out as such a 100% lock vil, who's always hounding the wolves, and expect the wolves to let you live? IDK. It seems like you need a tiny bit of wolfiness to keep the wolves off your own back so you can live to late game.

Unknowns: bikes, Keith
- bikes is a man of few words, and that makes him hard to read
- Keith is like the anti-aubrey in tone, which just seems odd to me. However, I suspect it's just a personal thing and not necessarily a reflection on his role in the game. However, his tone seems wolfy, but his drive seems vil, if that makes sense.

lynch a500lbgorilla

[MadMojoMonkey]

If that wasn't a joke by Luco, then I have him in the wrong list

I thought his post about being the reviver was a joke, but upon reflection, it would be a bad joke unless it was immediately rescinded.

So Luco moves up to confirmed vil.

[a500lbgorilla]

Suspected Wolves: rilla
- It's the anti-tell. He's always in there with long, detailed posts and just seeming like the Mayor of Vilville. Why would you put yourself out as such a 100% lock vil, who's always hounding the wolves, and expect the wolves to let you live? IDK. It seems like you need a tiny bit of wolfiness to keep the wolves off your own back so you can live to late game.

I've got a handful of votes on me now. So, even playing straight villager the whole way through, I get the result you think I should be looking for.

The truth is, if the wolves eat me, they eat me. So be it. If I had a power, that'd be different but it's not. So I'll just roll out for the village and see what happens.

[a500lbgorilla]

unvote bikes
Weird.

Anyway, my reads are pretty much the same as they were yesterday. Rilla has been wolfing hard today, and I can see JV and Gator wolfing as well now.

Way super disagree, but whatever.

[Luco]

I totally understand about the time thing MMM. Ww is such a time vampire lol

[rong]

Wolf team compensation

I am giving the wolves a vig shot to be used on any night of their choosing. I initially felt this was over compensating them as it is too powerful, but then Gabe edited his post earlier today and I can't have that kinda shit going on. The shot is not wolf specific.

So the wolves now get that power without it being weakened.

Don't edit posts!!!!! Follow the damn rules!

If anyone is unhappy with this then PM me, do not voice your frustration in the thread. You can of course discuss the new power the wolves have in general.

[a500lbgorilla]

I would love to hear your thoughts on this. I can't find a reason to think Bikes is NOT a Fed and I always have a shit hard time reading JV so any thoughts here would be helpful.

The reason why I think JV is a wolf is pretty obvious. JV would have read my role by now in just about every game. He and I take similar approaches to reading people. I know that some of the stuff I've put out there this game I couldn't put out as a wolf and he would have noticed that. And that if I were a wolf, I'd have to put in a decent amount of work to keep him off my tail through 2 days.

It's hard to fully describe the weakness, but when I'm a villager, I'm thinking about the game clearly. There's just one game. The idea/model/view whatever is coherent and one which I have an easy recall of. I'm in the game. When I'm a wolf, I'm crafting my positions to fit into the game as it's evolving in other people's heads. I try to do things that 'sound villagery' and struggle to chart my actions forward. It's difficult to engage in the game because I'm not solving the game, I'm trying not to be solved.

I take this personal insight and extend it to others. Because, hey, why not? We're all human. I like to believe there are posts which villagers can make which wolves can not. And I like to look for signs of people making those posts, or even fragments of them.

So MMM in the post I quoted earlier where he talks about how the game is all shadows to him. That tells me he's thinking like a villager, his head is in the game.

That's basically my case against jyms, when I get around to finding a way to present it. His posts (before his one about lynching me) continuously show a failure for him to demonstrate that he's thinking inside of the game instead of striking right off the surface.

JV does it a lot too

Are we possibly scaring of the first-timers MMM and savy? In the past half dozen games or so the newcomers have been very involved, so these guy not doing so looks fishy. But MMM aluded to being too confused to post so idk.

This is striking off the surface to me. He's just noticing things and not digesting them.

He's done it elsewhere. To speak to how undigested he is on this thred, yesterday when JKDS pressed him for his reads, he struggled to put out a haphazard look-around at the village. That says wolf to me.

I can't say anything in defense of bikes, just the sort of thing I've said about the Bigred's of the past. If they were a villager, they'd be as useless as this. I just want to press more interesting avenues.

[Luco]

Oh and this obsession with surviving to late game is not normal MMM. It doesn't matter when you die, if your team wins then you win too.

I think villagers wanting to live has contributed to us still not having this wrapped up despite having villagers all over the place.

[jackvance]

Yeah so much of my productive time per day goes into this game, I'm probably not signing up for the next one unless there is a big break. And I mean, I am around friends 100% of the time but still I put this kinda time into the game, lol.

[jyms]

Oh and this obsession with surviving to late game is not normal MMM. It doesn't matter when you die, if your team wins then you win too.

I think villagers wanting to live has contributed to us still not having this wrapped up despite having villagers all over the place.

wrapped up? It's only day 3. We have got lucky woith the Ong look up by the seer on night one and the mistake by rong giving us the hoopy lookup on night ttwo. We are only ahead by shear luck so far. I've sen us struggling into day 5 or 6 to get a wolf, it takes time. Patience.

[a500lbgorilla]

is what you wrote


and this is where you are totally illogical. you hadn't found anything that was suspicious about me ....but i'm supposedly the last wolf. You hadn't found anything that made me a villager . well its no bloody wonder when you later admit


so with you not paying attention to what i've done and written , you just happen to throw out there that i'm a wolf.Wolves will have done the maths on the known villagers: wolves and realized that the wolves are deep in the shit.Another person who proves that they are villagers and the game is over for the wolves.



So why are you so adamant that all the things that i have done is a wolf gaining cover, one maybe but all of them seriously hinders the wolves. I always defend myself when attacked , and usually the people that attack me turn out to be wolves when i am a villager. When i see someone acting differently or suspiciously i stay on them. day one i stayed on wuf because he was different. Turns out it was because he was a special.

you said you hadn't noticed that i hadn't done anything to make me a villager, i point out what i've done and the only possible explanation you can come up with is that i'm a wolf doing it for cover. How about the obvious , i'm just a villager just like virtually every other game i've played.

Also , why have you completely ignored the fact that i pointed out in my last post that you quoted that the pussy killer outing and a known villager virtually makes the game a village win. you have to keep discrediting the things i've done otherwise the wolves lose.

lol at you now protecting bikes. what do wolves have to do....stay alive ... so heres a proposition for you and the village....lynch me today but whoever lynches me today must lynch rilla tomorrow. by lynching me you'll see i'm a villager. in that knowledge , look at why rilla is trying so hard to discredit me. Anyone that wimps out of lynching rilla tomorrow is one of his fellow wolves and should be lynched afterwards.

This isn't me trying to save myself .....this is me putting myself forward as todays lynch candidate so that the pussy killer doesn't get lynched today and the pussy killer will then get to act tomorrow night.there is no upside in this for me . I'm hoping that the fact that pussy killer gets a chance to act tomorrow and rilla likely being a wolf who will die will offset the loss of someone who has done a lot to show he is village.

if you lynch me today, remember my reasoning , rilla's actions and lynch him tomorrow.Before the kill is confirmed i want to go through and give some thoughts on a couple of "unknowns" that i think are villagers and the reasons why. Got to get some work done so it will be 3 or 4 hours before i'm back on so make sure the wolves can't rush the wagon on me through before i get to post.

1) Keith, if you have 3 guys (A, B, and C) and 3 hats (2 red and 1 blue) and you have reason to believe both A and B are wearing red hats, what color hat is likely on C's head?

That's the 'illogic' of my approach.

2) I never said this. I was adamant that what you offered up as proof of your villagerhood was not anything I consider as evidence that you're a villager. I didn't say that on top of that, it was evidence that you were trying to build villager cover but rather that by your own reasoning, wolves would be well placed to do as you have done. How is it so difficult to communicate with you, Keith?

3) on your pussy killer ideas that you want me to debunk - If your idea is good, great. I don't tend to think about the specials because I'm basically never a special. I'll let them to their own actions, trusting that they're paying attention to their lot in life enough for the both of us. But I'd like to highlight a weakness in your thinking, Keith, what if I'm not a wolf?

Under the assumption that I'm a wolf, you built an expectation on how I would move forward. Now you're goading me to meet your expectations. How is any of this a useful approach?

You're expecting everything to fit into your conclusion, which won't be hard to do in a game like this. You can take any of my actions w.r.t to you and fold them into a "and what would a wolf do" narrative (hint: "exactly what he's doing!")

4) on defending bikes - Saying my putting JV ahead of bikes as a target is defending bikes is like saying that every shade of grey is black because it's not white. As if to say, if I'm not bolding bikes, I'm protecting him. I can put up other targets on the merits of those other targets and not have it be a reflection on bikes.


I'm going to try to put you on the back burner today. I have better things to do than find what I would consider the 3rd wolf.

[jackvance]

So I'm a wolf because I haven't figured the game out already? Hm, well, I fully expect to die should we not kill a wolf today, it's become a bit exhausting for me to go into everything that's been said to me, it's probably best I just roll over for the greater good.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Oh and this obsession with surviving to late game is not normal MMM. It doesn't matter when you die, if your team wins then you win too.

I think villagers wanting to live has contributed to us still not having this wrapped up despite having villagers all over the place.

I was just talking about this exact thing (irl) with my fiancee'. I think that I misinterpreted the game with too much emphasis on individual victory instead of team victory. I was thinking that if you're an obv wolf, the vils get you early, and if you're an obv vil, then the wolves get you early. The only way to live (win) is to be a bit ambiguous and watch for ... well ... idk ... wolf-sign?

I think it caused me to make some pretty silly posts early on which were intentionally misleadingly wolfy (like the "Did I give you what you were looking for?" comment).

Well, I guess it's the nature of the game, otherwise someone would have given me and savy a heads up about basic strategies and gameflow. *shrug* At least I got it before the end of day 3... ?

And !@#$ you rilla for basically saying exactly the right thing just then to make me less suspiscious... which is what you do that got my spidey senses tingling in the first place...

rescind a500lbgorilla ... for now.

lynch bikes

[a500lbgorilla]

Wuf, aubrey constantly utilizes the same sort of analysis tool. She looks at some aspect of the game and goes "If it's a yes, then this, but if it's a no, then..." Is this common in your experience with her or in her werewolf history (if she has one).

This post is an example. I can find more.

haha, Luco I like you a lot more this game. :P never underestimate the value of nonsensical interludes. especially spongebob ones.

i'm guessing rong will come in asap to close the day since it should have been done a while ago. is daven flips wolf that'll be awesome but if no, we need to seriously consider what the best next step is during this night phase. right now i want to say jyms because he's been fishy and is all too eager to go ahead with the daven lynch. ofc others were eager too, like myself, so he hasn't done anything particularly unique, but his overall behavior is what stands him apart.

it might be worth noting that daven did say that jyms seemed more like a lazy self-interested villager. if daven does flip wolf, this could be an attempt to distance himself from a fellow wolf. i do agree actually agree with the sentiment though, so if daven flips villager, that might be villager cred for jyms.

should go without saying that my above opinions may change after i review the thread in light of the daven outcome.

[a500lbgorilla]

So I'm a wolf because I haven't figured the game out already? Hm, well, I fully expect to die should we not kill a wolf today, it's become a bit exhausting for me to go into everything that's been said to me, it's probably best I just roll over for the greater good.

Oh, there are plenty of reasons JV. That one, I thought, opened nicely.

[jyms]

If someone lynches bikes right now it's 8 and the day is over. I am on rilla and am willing to do this but I am also willing to give others a chance to look at their votes.

[a500lbgorilla]

Let the day roll on please.

We have so much time and every reason to use it.

[Keith]

I've got a handful of votes on me now. So, even playing straight villager the whole way through, I get the result you think I should be looking for.

The truth is, if the wolves eat me, they eat me. So be it. If I had a power, that'd be different but it's not. So I'll just roll out for the village and see what happens.

see thats what i mean about you, the wolves aren't gonna eat you and you know it , they have a whole list of known villagers to work through first. You are putting yourself out there to be eaten by the wolves....its a complete worthless gesture , because if you are a villager it ain't gonna happen , and if you are a wolf it aint gonna happen.

I'm called for the village to lynch me today so that i die and protect the pussy killer. rongs new vig shot defeats the object of putting the village in a mathematical lock position ,but if the village want to help protect the pussy killer by lynching me today i'm fine with it. You haven't even discussed why i would volunteer to die as a wolf.a wolf just wouldn't do it .

[NightGizmo]

rescind bikes

The day should not end this quickly. We're having good discussions. I still like a bikes lynch, I just don't want to end the day after only 24 hours.

[jyms]

You make an interesting point Keith. It's one of those things I was forgetting about at the beginning myself, and trying to last int he game. It always feels like a Wolf team win but you never feel like you are a winner in this game as a villager if you go out early on a lynch. It's jsut a hard attitude to adjust.

My last game I didn't even follow the threads because I died so quickly and there was still a ton of details to figure out in that game. I never felt I won that one.

[Luco]

MMM I have directed a couple of posts at you and Savy trying to help, but mostly you learn as you go, it's just that sort of game. Besides, you're doing fine.

Also, I feel like I didn't really start to understand ww until about 24 hours after my first game finished, so i hear ya man. I was so clueless. Cringing right now just thinking about it.

[Luco]

So everybody wants bikes dead?

[GatorJH]

The reason why I think JV is a wolf is pretty obvious. JV would have read my role by now in just about every game. He and I take similar approaches to reading people. I know that some of the stuff I've put out there this game I couldn't put out as a wolf and he would have noticed that. And that if I were a wolf, I'd have to put in a decent amount of work to keep him off my tail through 2 days.

It's hard to fully describe the weakness, but when I'm a villager, I'm thinking about the game clearly. There's just one game. The idea/model/view whatever is coherent and one which I have an easy recall of. I'm in the game. When I'm a wolf, I'm crafting my positions to fit into the game as it's evolving in other people's heads. I try to do things that 'sound villagery' and struggle to chart my actions forward. It's difficult to engage in the game because I'm not solving the game, I'm trying not to be solved.

I take this personal insight and extend it to others. Because, hey, why not? We're all human. I like to believe there are posts which villagers can make which wolves can not. And I like to look for signs of people making those posts, or even fragments of them.

So MMM in the post I quoted earlier where he talks about how the game is all shadows to him. That tells me he's thinking like a villager, his head is in the game.

That's basically my case against jyms, when I get around to finding a way to present it. His posts (before his one about lynching me) continuously show a failure for him to demonstrate that he's thinking inside of the game instead of striking right off the surface.

JV does it a lot too



This is striking off the surface to me. He's just noticing things and not digesting them.

He's done it elsewhere. To speak to how undigested he is on this thred, yesterday when JKDS pressed him for his reads, he struggled to put out a haphazard look-around at the village. That says wolf to me.

I can't say anything in defense of bikes, just the sort of thing I've said about the Bigred's of the past. If they were a villager, they'd be as useless as this. I just want to press more interesting avenues.

I guess I see what you are saying here and if you are that in tune with jv's playing style that it makes sense, however if I apply that same "in the game" logic to myself your theory starts to make less sense.

What I mean is that there are too many players in this game for me to focus on a detailed analysis for every player so I pick out the ones that I feel are the most wolfish and I deep dive into my theories to see if they pan out (see Bikes). There are quite a few players who I have no clue on at this point including yourself, keith, jv, jyms, gizmo and aubrey to name a few so I would either have to rely on and believe or discredit others theories when deciding to lynch them.

Daven is a good example of this. Based on how hard Ong went after him day 1 I just couldn't see him flipping Fed, but there were so many other people who played the "Ong would do just this as a wolf" theory that I felt compelled to go along.

It is also evident that you are somewhat in the same boat because you said yourself that you really don't have a clue about Bikes.

IF you feel that strongly about jv it may be worthwhile to review his posts, but as the game goes along I will feel less and less compelled to go along with the "I think so and so should be playing this way and they aren't so they must be baddie" wagons.

On another note, I feel as strongly about Bikes as you seemingly do about jv yet you seem to just dismiss him. It's almost as if you are subtly trying to turn the village away from a Bikes lynch and that makes me suspicious of you because I could see myself doing that if I were a wolf and although we have never been wolves together I get the feeling our style's of play would be similar.

[GatorJH]

So everybody wants bikes dead?

I certainly do.

[jyms]

so do I, and I have also noticed that rilla has become less involved in saying my name every chance he gets for the first time in a few days since I bolded him and a few others thought the same. Rilla is acting very wolf like in trying to control wagons, he doesn't seem to be his usual self at all and I really think we need to look at lynching him.

[jyms]

also, I feel with only him and gator as considered to be tough reads as wolves, lynching him makes this game get real easy.

[daven]

You make an interesting point Keith. It's one of those things I was forgetting about at the beginning myself, and trying to last int he game. It always feels like a Wolf team win but you never feel like you are a winner in this game as a villager if you go out early on a lynch. It's jsut a hard attitude to adjust.

My last game I didn't even follow the threads because I died so quickly and there was still a ton of details to figure out in that game. I never felt I won that one.

you won the last game
it's a team game
you have played this long enough to know that
i'm still not sure how you got through day 1
you look like a wolf
Lynch Jyms

[daven]

Btw, with this strong field what's the over/under on the "Gators still alive he must be a wolf" conversation?

i just want to point out that you're still alive

[daven]

also, I feel with only him and gator as considered to be tough reads as wolves, lynching him makes this game get real easy.

tough reads as wolves vs strong villagers? wolf team benefits hugely from lynching a strong villager today, then nomming two tonight
giving the wolves a vig kill has turned this game hugely from advantage-village to advantage-wolf imo

[GatorJH]

i just want to point out that you're still alive

Can I get a WOOT WOOT!!!!

I should also point out that circumstances helped me stay alive the last two games and I was able to help the village win. Let's hope that happens again this game!!!

[daven]

Can I get a WOOT WOOT!!!!

I should also point out that circumstances helped me stay alive the last two games and I was able to help the village win. Let's hope that happens again this game!!!

if bikes is wolf + we lynch bikes then you're probably a dead crim walking

[Keith]

actually , it makes no difference if i'm lynched today or tomorrow. it still protects the pussy killer to reach the night phase as long as the wolves miss him tonight and bikes isnt the pussy killer.

[Keith]

thats with regard to bikes dieing today

[GatorJH]

if bikes is wolf + we lynch bikes then you're probably a dead crim walking

I will take that because I will have felt like I really helped the village win. Besides if they do that they will be leaving one more confirmed villager alive, which also helps the village.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Can I get a WOOT WOOT!!!!

I should also point out that circumstances helped me stay alive the last two games and I was able to help the village win. Let's hope that happens again this game!!!

-.-