Quote Originally Posted by jackvance View Post
you always have your 20% to outdraw a flopped flush.
That's too low.

When you flop a set, you have 7 outs (7/47 = 14.9%) to improve OTT and 10 outs (10/46 = 21.7%) to improve OTR.
Combining these chances, you have ( 1 - (40/47)(36/46) = ) 33.4% chance of improving to a boat or quads when you have 3-of-a-kind OTF.