Drug smugglers and Feds gameplay thread

[rong]

sorry luco, too busy to give you the brutal death you deserve.

[JKDS]

This is the message I deleted.

I dont believe its possible for JKDS, Wuf, or Luco to ever be wolves here. Ever. We have 3 FOR SURE, confirmed villagers. Agree?

It is highly unlikely that Bikes, Keith, or Rilla are wolves. EVEN if one of them is, it is highly unlikely that two of bikes, keith, and rilla are wolves. Agree with the second piece?

The remaining players are Gator, Aubrey, Imsavy, and Jyms. The wolves optimal strategy is to kill our confirmed villagers. Our optimal strategy is to kill from these four players here. In 3 days time, we will very likely get a single vig shot to use (that is, assuming wolves play optimally). In those 3 days, 3 confirmed villagers will get nk'd. 3 of {Gator, aubrey, savy, jyms} get lynched, and one of them gets viged.

Assuming my prong that 2 wolves cannot exist in {Bikes, Rilla, Keith} is true, we can then GUARANTEE an endgame with those 3 players. Not only that, but given that its highly unlikely even a single wolf exists in there, we have a great chance of just outright winning before we even get there.

QED no lynch rilla.

[JKDS]

The above still applies with Luco and Savy dead. Its just accelerated a bit now. Its still more likely than not that there is at least 1, if not 2, wolves in {aubrey, gator, jyms}. Therefore, its still best to lynch from there.

[GatorJH]

The above still applies with Luco and Savy dead. Its just accelerated a bit now. Its still more likely than not that there is at least 1, if not 2, wolves in {aubrey, gator, jyms}. Therefore, its still best to lynch from there.

Agreed and I am not sure how it got away yesterday but today should be a [b]lynch Aubrey[b] day

[Keith]

wuf , you keep wondering why you still live through the night,have you ever thought that it could be because you are wrong with your suspects. Wolves are going to keep you alive so that it keeps them alive longer

before anyone bolds, wuf and JKDS should sort out who they are shooting tonight.

luco was pressing for a gator lynch yesterday. I think he was probably eaten as a result so i want to hang Gator today , just as i did yesterday.Gator tried to discredit the theory of known villagers naming who'd they'd shoot yesterday. it cripples the wolves . only a wolf would try and discredit it.
He seemed nonchalant yesterday saying that he didn't mind dieing , until i pointed out that gator was our safe lynch to protect the pk and then he tried to discredit the strategy, and fought to stay alive when he was facing a death. Villager gator would have accepted his fate realising it was for the good of the village.

now look at gators latest post ,he agrees with JKDS list but chooses someone else.

[jyms]

I want to agree with JKDS for so many reasons, but it's hard when my name is in that group. I think of the other group I really feel rilla is our only other wolf. For me, if it's not gator, aubrey or rilla as the last two then we are screwed. We need some sound logic right now.

[bikes]

i can't think the wolf is gator because if gator was going to be obvious he wouldnt be so obvious. i still like the jyms and aubrey lynches my opinions havent changed why.

[jyms]

wuf , you keep wondering why you still live through the night,have you ever thought that it could be because you are wrong with your suspects. Wolves are going to keep you alive so that it keeps them alive longer

before anyone bolds, wuf and JKDS should sort out who they are shooting tonight.

luco was pressing for a gator lynch yesterday. I think he was probably eaten as a result so i want to hang Gator today , just as i did yesterday.Gator tried to discredit the theory of known villagers naming who'd they'd shoot yesterday. it cripples the wolves . only a wolf would try and discredit it.
He seemed nonchalant yesterday saying that he didn't mind dieing , until i pointed out that gator was our safe lynch to protect the pk and then he tried to discredit the strategy, and fought to stay alive when he was facing a death. Villager gator would have accepted his fate realising it was for the good of the village.

now look at gators latest post ,he agrees with JKDS list but chooses someone else.

I agree that Wuf can flip flop and confuse the village, but I am not sure that luco wasn't killed for something as level 0 in that he wanted gator dead. Not that it wasn't the reason, but there is more to it than that, luco had lots to say, as does JKDS

[a500lbgorilla]

Agreed and I am not sure how it got away yesterday but today should be a [b]lynch Aubrey[b] day

Why Aubrey over Jyms?

[a500lbgorilla]

I agree that Wuf can flip flop and confuse the village, but I am not sure that luco wasn't killed for something as level 0 in that he wanted gator dead. Not that it wasn't the reason, but there is more to it than that, luco had lots to say, as does JKDS

Finish one thought, Jyms. Just once. Don't just open them and let them float... don't just plant them and wait for someone else to water and help them grow... finish one thought, Jyms. Just once.

[GatorJH]

Because Jyms has been fairly consistent with his thinking while Aubrey has been all over the place.

And above should have read lynch Aubrey

[GatorJH]

wuf , you keep wondering why you still live through the night,have you ever thought that it could be because you are wrong with your suspects. Wolves are going to keep you alive so that it keeps them alive longer

before anyone bolds, wuf and JKDS should sort out who they are shooting tonight.

luco was pressing for a gator lynch yesterday. I think he was probably eaten as a result so i want to hang Gator today , just as i did yesterday.Gator tried to discredit the theory of known villagers naming who'd they'd shoot yesterday. it cripples the wolves . only a wolf would try and discredit it.
He seemed nonchalant yesterday saying that he didn't mind dieing , until i pointed out that gator was our safe lynch to protect the pk and then he tried to discredit the strategy, and fought to stay alive when he was facing a death. Villager gator would have accepted his fate realising it was for the good of the village.

now look at gators latest post ,he agrees with JKDS list but chooses someone else.

Ummm, Aubrey is on his list.

[a500lbgorilla]

Because Jyms has been fairly consistent with his thinking while Aubrey has been all over the place.

And above should have read lynch Aubrey

Why would you expect a villager to not be all over the place?

Wuf has been all over the place.

[GatorJH]

@keith, I also meant to say I simply said you made an sumptuous that everyone was going to do exactly as you had pointed out and that MAY not have happened. I also am not sure where you get that I "fought for my life". Again, if you want to lunch means get me out of the way then go ahead as long as it helps the village win.

[jyms]

Finish one thought, Jyms. Just once. Don't just open them and let them float... don't just plant them and wait for someone else to water and help them grow... finish one thought, Jyms. Just once.

Because if gator is a wolf along with me or any one of you or keith or bikes he's not going to kill Luco last night just because he wanted gator dead. If he did it's because he has more things to look at than just luco. HE knows Me3 and aubrey have also had big wagons. I personally as a fed would have no problem killing luco, he's been on my side almost the whole game and wavered once or twice. I would have killed you rilla, you have left me a lone for a while but you are dying to get me. I know this. I also think killing aubrey last night would have put me in the good books too, because it would have pointed in the other direction too.

[GatorJH]

Why would you expect a villager to not be all over the place?

Wuf has been all over the place.

But he has been all over the place with a shit ton of evidence. She just seems to be more random finger pointing to me.

[a500lbgorilla]

Because if gator is a wolf along with me or any one of you or keith or bikes he's not going to kill Luco last night just because he wanted gator dead. If he did it's because he has more things to look at than just luco. HE knows Me3 and aubrey have also had big wagons. I personally as a fed would have no problem killing luco, he's been on my side almost the whole game and wavered once or twice. I would have killed you rilla, you have left me a lone for a while but you are dying to get me. I know this. I also think killing aubrey last night would have put me in the good books too, because it would have pointed in the other direction too.

Wolves can not possibly kill aubrey.

If you killed me, it wouldn't help you. How would you answer the entire village saying "You know, Rilla was hard on Jyms. Maybe we should lynch Jyms."

Killing people who support you would serve your interests better, don't you think?

I'm torn on pressing for you harder or not since you're going to die. I'm just excited to see your role.

[a500lbgorilla]

But he has been all over the place with a shit ton of evidence. She just seems to be more random finger pointing to me.

Luco, to briefly answer your question (I have to leave in a bit but I'll be back later - in the mean time I would like to at least get something in):

Gator - I've shied away from gator for most of this game since he's accrued enough WW clout to be able to get away with playing a wolfy game without being immediately suspected. At least, that's how it seems to me. He's one of those people I think "I'll deal with you later unless you really catch my attention now" about.

But your observation made a lot of sense to me when I read it. Maybe I was also in a semi-non sober state of mind because it was so late, but I remember being all like WHOA when I read that. Maybe I'm just easily excitable, haha. I guess it's because I don't know who the last wolf is after imsavy and jyms (unless they both are, which is less likely but would be awesome), and you found a way to make one of the non-confirmed but seemingly off-limits villagers look pretty wolfy.

Jyms - I'd describe his whole game as fishy peppered with instances of genuine frustration. Hasn't really led the village, voices reasonable but easy things to say, has kind of been all over the place, enough to slide by but not enough to really make a strong case for himself.

ImSavy - The thing with ImSavy is he's a noob and obviously isn't feeling the game. The wolves may have decided that he would slide by till end game anyway because of this, and at that point he could be sacrificed and it would be no big deal. And at this point, like Wugy said, they must be demoralized, so maybe that's why it feels like there's even less of him.

Also, if he is a wolf, the whole betting thing could have been a wolf ploy, something to make him look super villagery without requiring him to do too much work. I mean, I doubt they thought anything would seriously come out of that. I don't know, maybe I'm off on that though. I'm a noob to this forum so I can't honestly say for sure how obvious that is.


Will be out for a while. Back later.

No evidence in here? Really looks like 3 bolded names followed by her off-the-cuff from-the-gut reads and what constitutes them. This reads like evidence to me.

And if it doesn't read like evidence, it reads pretty closely to how I see (and saw) the village.

[GatorJH]

Because if gator is a wolf along with me or any one of you or keith or bikes he's not going to kill Luco last night just because he wanted gator dead. If he did it's because he has more things to look at than just luco. HE knows Me3 and aubrey have also had big wagons. I personally as a fed would have no problem killing luco, he's been on my side almost the whole game and wavered once or twice. I would have killed you rilla, you have left me a lone for a while but you are dying to get me. I know this. I also think killing aubrey last night would have put me in the good books too, because it would have pointed in the other direction too.

Anybody who makes this post at this point in the game either HAS to be a villager or is doing an extremely good job at making us think he would be a horrible Fed.

[a500lbgorilla]

And I only had to dig like 4 'No-content' Aubrey posts back to find that one. I bet if I kept going, I'd find more reason to see the order very clearly as this.

Jyms > Gator > Aubrey.

[GatorJH]

No evidence in here? Really looks like 3 bolded names followed by her off-the-cuff from-the-gut reads and what constitutes them. This reads like evidence to me.

And if it doesn't read like evidence, it reads pretty closely to how I see (and saw) the village.

Savy is the only me there with any true analysis. Her take on me and Jyms are both VERY general in nature and the fact that you, of all people, don't see this is tbh fairly concerning.

[aubreymcfate]

I want to agree with JKDS for so many reasons, but it's hard when my name is in that group. I think of the other group I really feel rilla is our only other wolf. For me, if it's not gator, aubrey or rilla as the last two then we are screwed. We need some sound logic right now.

But according to what JKDS said, even if you, me, and gator get lynched and only one of us is a wolf, they still have the chance to nom the other wolf in KBR.

at that point though, and correct me if I'm wrong, you'll be in a scenario where you absolutely have to lynch a wolf, or we lose.

So if the last wolf combo isn't gator/jyms it must be one of KBR. And that's a tough call to make.

I say we lynch jyms tonight since he was always my next target, vig gator, and if we don't win by that point, reevaluate the remaining players using the results of their lynches.

We're making it really easy for a wolf in KBR to slide to the end game if we're not even going to think critically and reevaluate all the info after each lynch. You do realize that this method sets a pretty bad precedent, right?

Like Bikes - he's just been sliding by. Wtf is his lazy ass post up there. Really? After all that's happened - all the discussion and new information - since you last graced this thread with your presence, your opinions haven't changed?

[aubreymcfate]

^ by the second paragraph up there the "you" is general, not directed at jyms.

[a500lbgorilla]

Anybody who makes this post at this point in the game either HAS to be a villager or is doing an extremely good job at making us think he would be a horrible Fed.

I don't even know what I would do with myself if he's not a Fed.

[a500lbgorilla]

Savy is the only me there with any true analysis. Her take on me and Jyms are both VERY general in nature and the fact that you, of all people, don't see this is tbh fairly concerning.

I agree with her take on both you and Jyms. The only time you were ever in the fore-front of this thread, I was out in front of you pushing for JV. You do nothing to catch anyone's attention. Ruffle no feathers, apply no pressure, bounce off of this and that without leaving a signature-Gator thought to be found.

[jyms]

I still like Rilla over Aubrey

[GatorJH]

I agree with her take on both you and Jyms. The only time you were ever in the fore-front of this thread, I was out in front of you pushing for JV. You do nothing to catch anyone's attention. Ruffle no feathers, apply no pressure, bounce off of this and that without leaving a signature-Gator thought to be found.

Then you haven't looked at my posts either. There have been SEVERAL people who I have gone after pretty hard this game.

[a500lbgorilla]

Then you haven't looked at my posts either. There have been SEVERAL people who I have gone after pretty hard this game.

Help me out.

[a500lbgorilla]

Bikes, get your ass in this thread.

[a500lbgorilla]

Also, Rilla's post about gator up there says it all. The ONE person gator actually went hard for was JV, after JV started getting heat.

Though, I may agree with Aubrey's read on Gator because she got it from me.

[wufwugy]

wuf , you keep wondering why you still live through the night,have you ever thought that it could be because you are wrong with your suspects. Wolves are going to keep you alive so that it keeps them alive longer

Yeah it's always like this. Wolves don't nom me because they think I'm erratic. I'm not, I just appear to be so

[Keith]

I agree that Wuf can flip flop and confuse the village, but I am not sure that luco wasn't killed for something as level 0 in that he wanted gator dead. Not that it wasn't the reason, but there is more to it than that, luco had lots to say, as does JKDS

look at http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...12#post2162212 which is the post where i highlighted who daven had been pressing to kill. THat person being Gator ......Daven dies
luco pushed the case for lynching Gator .....luco dies....... Once is a coincidence surely twice is a pattern thats worth examining.

Ummm, Aubrey is on his list.

I meant someone else of his list


Also.......we know that gator isnt the pussy killer so lynching gator today keeps the pussy killer into tomorrow . Tonight gives us another guaranteed non pussy killer we lynch tomorrow and then the PK can out himself and we get another shot and the wolves can't influence it . The extra shot should tip the game in our favour. Downside is we'd only have one confirmed villager and he'd probably be facing a choice between 2 PK claimants.

JKDS and WUF should get a list of who they are going to shoot up ASAP and villagers should make sure no wagon can get to point of wolves closing the day before that list is up.

T

[jyms]

It's a good game play move. Gator is never the pussy killer and he's very much still high on the possible fed list. For this reason alone I think it's a good bet.

lynch gator

I'll come off gator if someone has overwhelming evidence of another fed. But when it's all a maybe, I say we do this too

[wufwugy]

Well here it is, Gents

I don't have fun as a wolf either.

lynch MMM

After Luco bolded MMM, about 4 hours before MMM self-bolded and ended Day 4

The reasons are a bit back and forth, but for many of the same reasons I didn't think MMM was and think ImSavy may be.

Interdasting. If he didn't think MMM was a wolf, why bold him?

Yesterday, I just wanted him (MMM) to show up and take himself out of the group I had put him back into. And I wanted to leave open a bunch of easy wagons for the wolves to latch onto.

Decent explanation, but bad villager play. Especially for Rilla. Village Rilla would say "find the wolf, kill the wolf, pick up the tells left by his scrambling buddies." He's said similar in previous games. The same applies to the below

While Jyms is still my premo target, Jyms, if villager, should be an easy wagon for the wolves to latch on to. I wanted to leave as many of these openings for them to go for.

Today, Jyms, ImSavy are my way ahead top targets. There is no way that Jyms should be OK with dying when we took a great position and flubbed it up overnight.

At least now we know who Rilla's premo target is. The same target he has claimed is a wolf since Day Fucking 1

Then Aubrey is bolded by me and JKDS, and she bolds Jyms, then Jyms posts

But to start some heat and get some names

Lynch Aubrey

To which Gator points out

Then he turns around and throws in the third lynch for Aubrey with the guise "to start some heat"?

Jyms, why don't you think Aubrey already had heat from the first two votes? This smells like you wanting to be in the middle of the voting so you can't be accused of a quick lynch.

I said he's a pretty good shot at being gang, if he was a fed he's been very slippery. I don't have rilla on my radar at all. Yes I would take gator over rilla and is why I question why he wasn't shot.

But wait, Jyms, if you're confident Rilla is villager, then from your perspective, the game is solved since you have a villager line on two players that nobody else does (yourself and Rilla)

Good points, tons of villager cred for that first paragraph

WTF?! Even more villagers? Damn you're awesome at this game, Jyms! Act on some of these epic reads, will ya? Help a brotha out, they's killin erebody out here!

In what world does Village Jyms ever not realize all his village reads means he should be highly confident in who the wolves are? But it's not like what Keith said deserved "tons of villager cred" anyways

Gator has never been a part of anything ITT. Always next-to, just-after, over-top-of and the rest.

lynch gator

I may not be able to post again before the deadline.

Oh wow! Did that just happen? I thought it was Jyms and Savy, Rilla? You make no mention of Gator, while stating - during an integral time of the game, no less - that Jyms and Savy are your picks, yet you hop on Gator after Luco pointed out the RBK thing? I guess I just don't understand how a500lbbrain works, calling certain people wolves but lynching others. It's just so confusing to me!

Not to mention that the RBK thing also means BKG and RBG

Wuf couldn't be more wrong in his Aubry /jym points. Have you been paying attention? This is just you wanting to make sure you throw everyone in the fire so you can claim you had everybody pegged as they flip wolf. I haven't given up, and certainly if I was a wolf I would find a better way to hide me and a team mate which is still obviously hidden judging by the village and there thoughts the last two days. You thought you were in great shape up until both the village, and pussy killer /vig fucked up big time and we lost 3. Don't get fucking lazy thinking you got this and go into another night phase losing two more.

Then do some hunting. I mean, you have all these villager reads which means you have the wolves narrowed down fantastically, so maybe do something other than post commentary and meta

Rescind Aubrey, lynch gator

LOL. 4th vote on Gator. Gator ain't no wolf and he definitely ain't no wolf with Jyms

I'm going to bed. Don't wagon me till tomorrow.
Rescind

Why not? You got something to say?

Now Jyms is in the lead with 3 to Gator's 2

lynch ImSavy

Oh and lookie who just happened by. What, is Jyms not good enough a lynch for you? I thought he was premo? You said "premo", remember? I guess hopping on after Luco rebolds Savy, putting him tied at 3 with Jyms is better than "premo". Gotta kill Savy because you don't wanna kill Jyms and people are unlikely to get back on Gator. At least you claimed Savy was wolfy at some earlier point, so it's not terribly obvious when you do something like this

It's not like I didn't give you a million and one opportunities to lynch Jyms as a part of the Aubrey/Jyms rampage

Jyms pulls off another fantastic "don't lynch me til tomorrow so I can jump on the next wagon" post.

No shit. Hey Savy, you're pretty good at this game. You should play more, but you know, actually play




I'll be lynching Jyms after I figure out what me and JKDS should do about the vig. Rilla's his buddy.

[wufwugy]

BTW a reason that has been thrown around for why Daven was nom'd first is that he bolded Gator. Well, he also bolded Jyms at a time that nobody else was. In fact, he rescinded Gator so he could get on Jyms

[GatorJH]

Help me out.

Help yourself out buddy.

[wufwugy]

Okay here's the remaining unknowns

Jyms
Keith
Rilla

Gator
Aubrey
Bikes



I'll shoot one in the first 3 (Jyms Keith Rilla), JKDS shoot one in the latter 3 (Gator Aubrey Bikes). JKDS, if you have a better idea, let it be known

BTW, if Jyms flips wolf I'm definitely shooting Rilla. Just so you know

[wufwugy]

lunch jyms

[a500lbgorilla]

Wuf, I could have gone with Jyms and made it 3v3 against Savy yesterday and wanted to but decided against it because we were never going to have more info on Savy, he was never going to be easier to read and he had to die. So I went with Savy.

After that post, I drove 10 hours home. I could have made it 3v3 under the belief that it would be more telling whatever happened, but I stepped back on the back of my not going to be able to see how the rest of the day plays out.

[jyms]

Fwiw wuf. I think the exchanges all game between me and rilla look very wolfy. It felt wolfy. We've been on each other several times early. I thought his attacks on me were very wolfy but I also realize my game has been very suspect. I've played different this time. I have him a flyer and he started to look like he had cred to me. But now, late in the game my suspicions are up on everyone. I keep expecting someone to contest a fake outing by you but I doubt that. It just feels that way. I think gator is our smartest lynch, but if someone can break down the game a better way to make sure we get a fed and a vig shot then I'm all ears. At this point me, Aubrey, gator, rilla and bikes all need to be sorted.

[wufwugy]

I still like Rilla over Aubrey

lollllllllllllll

so rilla aint so villager anymore? not after i posted at the end of the previous day how rilla is pulling a massive level. now you have to act like it could be true!

[a500lbgorilla]

And wuf, there's no reason not to lynch Gator there. He's hard to read, his playstyle is commensurate with my description - he does nothing to raise his profile, he stays in the weeds - see this post for a perfect example

Help yourself out buddy.

I bet if I dig back through the thread, I could come up with just the one target he ever almost went for, which was JV.

I also bet I could make a stronger case that I'm a villager than you can I'm a wolf.

And I wasn't following all of your stuff wuf, because I didn't think you were right on Aubrey and I knew we could get Jyms eventually.

[a500lbgorilla]

Wuf, I could have gone with Jyms and made it 3v3 against Savy yesterday and wanted to but decided against it because we were never going to have more info on Savy, he was never going to be easier to read and he had to die. So I went with Savy.

Also, it's obvious that Jyms isn't a flight risk. He posts a lot ITT. Savy was the better choice from my perspective, imo.

[wufwugy]

Wuf, I could have gone with Jyms and made it 3v3 against Savy yesterday and wanted to but decided against it because we were never going to have more info on Savy, he was never going to be easier to read and he had to die. So I went with Savy.

Except that you supposedly think Jyms is a wolf and Savy had just previously bolded him. If you would then bold Jyms, you could find out what you want about Savy without killing him

Killing Jyms like you claim you wanted to since the beginning is a win-win. If you're Village, that is

[jyms]

All you do with posts like this wuf is make me think rilla is possibly village

[GatorJH]

I bet if I dig back through the thread, I could come up with just the one target he ever almost went for, which was JV.

I also bet I could make a stronger case that I'm a villager than you can I'm a wolf.

But you don't want to do either one of these. Instead you sit there and do what you rail on others about. You let them do the heavy lifting while you throw out generalities about their playing style.

As for no reason not to lynch me, I can think of a pretty good one. I am a villager.

[a500lbgorilla]

Except that you supposedly think Jyms is a wolf and Savy had just previously bolded him. If you would then bold Jyms, you could find out what you want about Savy without killing him

Killing Jyms like you claim you wanted to since the beginning is a win-win. If you're Village, that is

How? If the game is going to walk out with the wolves killing our most villager villagers and us killing the most wolf wolf, Jyms is earmarked for death. How does moving him up one rung tip anything significantly in my favor?

JKDS still thinks Jyms is a villager. JKDS sees the game in a way I don't. I know what I see and what it means, I know that I've put it out there time and again. I can buy time on Jyms and get Savy, or get Jyms and then still struggle with a pool of hard to read targets including Gator, Savy (and no-show Bikes if somehow it comes to that (and possibly fleshing out all of my first read on aubrey is since I've never played with her before)).

(JKDS still thinks Jyms is a villager. <-- I'm second guessing this statement because his position might have changed, but it's what I believed as of Sunday morning)

[a500lbgorilla]

But you don't want to do either one of these. Instead you sit there and do what you rail on others about. You let them do the heavy lifting while you throw out generalities about their playing style.

As for no reason not to lynch me, I can think of a pretty good one. I am a villager.

Who said I'm not going to do either of those Gator? There's plenty of day left in the day.

[a500lbgorilla]

How? If the game is going to walk out with the wolves killing our most villager villagers and us killing the most wolf wolf, Jyms is earmarked for death. How does moving him up one rung tip anything significantly in my favor?

JKDS still thinks Jyms is a villager. JKDS sees the game in a way I don't. I know what I see and what it means, I know that I've put it out there time and again. I can buy time on Jyms and get Savy, or get Jyms and then still struggle with a pool of hard to read targets including Gator, Savy (and no-show Bikes if somehow it comes to that (and possibly fleshing out all of my first read on aubrey is since I've never played with her before)).

(JKDS still thinks Jyms is a villager. <-- I'm second guessing this statement because his position might have changed, but it's what I believed as of Sunday morning)

Also, as of sunday, Luco who was doing some hard-work for the village begged us to lynch Savy. Making it 3-3 seemed like starting silly shit that I shouldn't be walking away from and lynching Savy seemed like the judicious choice for the village.

[bikes]

Bikes, get your ass in this thread.

checking in, was at work. reading now

[bikes]

i really have to agree with wuf. and that doesnt feel good. jym's posts have provided absolutely no value and done nothing but deflect deflect deflect which is what i'd probably do if i was a mediocre wolf. i've went back in the thread a few days and every post from jyms has been about who is a villager and not who is probably a wolf. and at this point his reads aren't even showing up in thread.


another post inc

[wufwugy]

And wuf, there's no reason not to lynch Gator there. He's hard to read, his playstyle is commensurate with my description - he does nothing to raise his profile, he stays in the weeds - see this post for a perfect example

Pot kettle black. He's been as in the thick as you (you haven't been in as much as you claim). There's big reason to not lynch Gator. RBK also means BKG and RKG. Luco was half right, he just missed the part that Gator only mentioned where the final wolf could be while you have been trying to kill one in that group. All at such an unreasonable time. Lest we forget that not only do you still have the option to kill Jyms, but he was #4 on Gator yesterday. Not to mention you're as hard to read as him and "hard to read" is not Rilla wolf-hunting strategy.

Not to mention Gator's case against JV was much stronger than yours. You've been getting credit for it because you were the first non-confirmed player to go after him and Gator started a little later than you, but I went back over the points you guys made, and Gator's were better. Yours were just a mishmash of various ideas a "BONNNNGGGGGSS"

Village Rilla doesn't think Gator is the best lynch here. I guess maybe you're not that hard to read, after all.

I bet if I dig back through the thread, I could come up with just the one target he ever almost went for, which was JV.

Well and Bikes, but he always does that. Gator waits till the last minute in all his games. Me and Rong hashed it out for weeks in the last game because Gator wanted to wait until the end to sit down and dig out what's what.

I also bet I could make a stronger case that I'm a villager than you can I'm a wolf.

plzplzplzplzplzplzplzplz

And I wasn't following all of your stuff wuf, because I didn't think you were right on Aubrey and I knew we could get Jyms eventually.

Oh eventually? C'mon, son! Don't bring that weak shit in here. Eventually, "getting to it eventually" means "oops, too late." You know this. Remember when you found all 3 wolves in the first 3 days? Like two years ago? Yeah, you found them and killed them. None of this "eventually" crap

How? If the game is going to walk out with the wolves killing our most villager villagers and us killing the most wolf wolf, Jyms is earmarked for death. How does moving him up one rung tip anything significantly in my favor?

JKDS still thinks Jyms is a villager. JKDS sees the game in a way I don't. I know what I see and what it means, I know that I've put it out there time and again. I can buy time on Jyms and get Savy, or get Jyms and then still struggle with a pool of hard to read targets including Gator, Savy (and no-show Bikes if somehow it comes to that (and possibly fleshing out all of my first read on aubrey is since I've never played with her before)).

(JKDS still thinks Jyms is a villager. <-- I'm second guessing this statement because his position might have changed, but it's what I believed as of Sunday morning)

Since when is this ever a good point? Village Rilla doesn't let what other people think keep him from going after who he thinks is a wolf. Especially when he's claimed that person is a wolf every single day of this entire game

Also, as of sunday, Luco who was doing some hard-work for the village begged us to lynch Savy. Making it 3-3 seemed like starting silly shit that I shouldn't be walking away from and lynching Savy seemed like the judicious choice for the village.

Glad you brought this up. I didn't bold him because it wasn't a good lynch. You bolded him instead of the person you have said is a wolf a million times. Which one of us does that show is on the ball?

[wufwugy]

i really have to agree with wuf. and that doesnt feel good.

[aubreymcfate]

lol just posting real quick to say i let out the loudest snort at that ron paul gif. A+++++

[bikes]

so after re-reading day 3 which i think the most info is at i have concluded that.

based on my wagon of day 3 at this point

Vote count update

Bikes: 6 (Gator, Wuf, Aubrey, JV, Imsavy, MMM)
Rilla: 2 (Jyms, Keith)
Jyms: 2 (Rilla, Daven)
Keith: 1 (Gabe)

Approx 23 hrs left of day 3.

that it seems super super super unlikely that wufwugy is ever a wolf due to him derailing my wagon onto the confirmed wolf jv. post #902. i dunno how to link this shit.

gator rescinds post #918 but doesnt vote for JV yet. something i'm thinking about

rilla comes off jyms post #929 to bold JV which makes me think its super unlikely he's a fed. though i could be wrong.

post #933 gabe comes off me and on to JV and the wagon is on.

#980 gator bolds JV

#985 jyms comes and removes rilla and bolds JV. I find it SUPER SUPER supicious that he wasn't on the my wagon to begin with and on rilla which never had a chance to be lynched. possibly to claim deniability when i came up town.

#994 aubrey comes and nails the coffin on JV and gabe has taught me always look at the person who comes in to nail the coffin on a wolf during the day.



at this very moment I think

I AM TOWN
wuf is town
jkds is town
rilla is town

i dunno about keith
i am on the fence about gator

i think our best lynch choices are aubrey or jyms

probably another post inc

[a500lbgorilla]

He's been as in the thick as you (you haven't been in as much as you claim).

Not to mention you're as hard to read as him and "hard to read" is not Rilla wolf-hunting strategy.

Not to mention Gator's case against JV was much stronger than yours.

"Not to mention you're as hard to read as him and "hard to read" is not Rilla wolf-hunting strategy. "

I can almost not even believe what I am reading. This happens every time I'm a villager. Go find any game where I'm a villager and read it through (even though this is lame). Trust me. We've done this before. I've done it with Ong before.

"He's been as in the thick as you (you haven't been in as much as you claim)."

He's been as in the thick as you (you haven't been in as much as you claim).

Day 1, I went after Ong, JKDS, Jyms, NG (a little, really just wanted him off the inactives), aubrey (haphazardly), eugmac on the back of gabe, I defended daven against your attacks when I was asked to read them.

Over that same period, GatorJH went for Pascal, Bigred, Inactives, and the "Why is Gator still alive" observation that lingered in his future - he eventually lynches eug

Day 2, Gator opens with #380 on his reads from day 1 (not pressing, just reads), In 631 he lightly suggests the outcome of the daven lynch, lynches him in #670

I pressed on jyms (3 posts building a case), when JKDS got JV in a trap I pounced on it in #569, I eventually pivoted to your daven case.

"Not to mention Gator's case against JV was much stronger than yours."

I can almost not believe what I am reading. His case may have been more easily digested for you, but you better believe JV knew I had him and wouldn't let go.

[JKDS]

I think it is incredibly interesting that we have such a huge burst of posts from everyone today. Why? Is it really that we're about to win and this is a last ditch effort to stop it? Or is it that we're about to lose and the wolves are super encouraged?

BTW, even if we completely miss today and our vig shot missess two...we are guarenteed tomorrow to be 2 confirmed vs 3 unknowns. Find the villager of 3 players, easy game. (Go ahead, maths it.)

But we arent going to completely wiff. Look at how much posting there is already. No way one isnt a wolf here. And i still highly doubt rilla or keith are wolves.



BTW, vig your best move is to out TOMORROW. Outting today is marginally worse (very marginally so). We get your bullet no matter what, and we hit tomorrow with 2 confirmed villagers no matter what.

@WUFWUGY: NO. We lynch one of the 3, then you shoot one, and I shoot one. Even if this fails, as per above, we're in excellent shape. Ill listen to any theories regarding rilla/keith/bikes wolf tomorrow should it come to that, but for now the wolfiest are still these three individuals known as gator,aubrey, and jyms.

I will shoot Gator > Jyms > Aubrey.

You shoot Aubrey > Jyms > Gator.

This way, no matter who dies...we will shoot different people. Yes, this telegraphs the kill to the wolves, but we can fuck with it (or not) when it gets close to lynch. Im reserving my vote till tomorrow.

[bikes]

i still find it super interesting that jyms and aubrey and both still alive after so much suspicion from so many different players. i def think there is at least one wolf between the 2 of them for sure.

[bikes]

I think it is incredibly interesting that we have such a huge burst of posts from everyone today.

mid-late to late game significantly more fun and exciting than early early-mid game.

[a500lbgorilla]

Late Yesterday.

Here is what I see so far, there just has to be a wolf among Jyms, Aubrey and savy, but I don't think there are two in that group. If my theory is correct that means the last wolf is one of myself, Rilla, Keith, and bikes (unless there has been a fake out somewhere along the way which is highly unlikely). Since I know I am a villager that means one of Rilla, Keith or Bikes is the last wolf and all three of them look pretty villagery.

This has me concerned tbh because I think we are headed to those three being alive on the last day.

I REALLY hope my theory is wrong here.

Early today.

Because Jyms has been fairly consistent with his thinking while Aubrey has been all over the place.

And above should have read lynch Aubrey

Gator is look at a village that is going to lynch 3 targets, only Aubrey of which he thinks is good.

None of his posts today seem to be interested in how doomed the village must seem to him. Rather, he wants to keep his eye on the ball (Aubrey) and hands-off the heavy lifting.

[wufwugy]

"Not to mention Gator's case against JV was much stronger than yours."

I can almost not believe what I am reading. His case may have been more easily digested for you, but you better believe JV knew I had him and wouldn't let go.

Thank you for bringing this up. Now we can put the myth to rest

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...62#post2161362
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...71#post2161371
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...73#post2161373
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...86#post2161386
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...88#post2161388
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...00#post2161400

Those are all your posts about JV during the wagon. It appears there are six points, but appearances are misleading. Five of the points are actually the same point made six times, and the other simply doesn't make sense. During the same time period, not only did you post the same number of times about Jyms being wolfy, but it was in the same way that you claimed JV was wolfy.

Gator, OTOH, did a logistical analysis of JV instead of just making the same point over and over like you did.

JV didn't "know you had him and wouldn't let go". He knew he was being thrown under the bus. He didn't even bother fighting back. This was planned. Hell, if Gator was going to be the one to throw him under the bus, don't you think he would have started the wagon so he doesn't get accused of latching on exactly as he is now being accused?

[a500lbgorilla]

Wuf, a lot of your stuff is about how I played yesterday. Remember from mid Thursday-Sunday, I was in DC and then at the beach with friends enjoying copious amounts of alcohol.

[a500lbgorilla]

Alright wuf, you got me.

[GatorJH]

my eye is on the ball rilla. Yesterday I listed them as aubrey>Jyms>savy and I still think that way. I'm not sure why that makes me a wolf, but whatever.

I am at dinner with a vendor (who is laughing because I keep wanting to check in on this "silly internet game") so I don't have time for a deep analysis, but will have to before the day is over since I think there is only 1 wolf between Aubrey/Jyms which means the other wolf is pretty well hidden.

You sir are heading toward the top of that list though imo. I also want to take a hard look at Keith and another at Bikes although if I had to rank you three now it would be rilla>keith>bikes.

[a500lbgorilla]

Take your time, my friend.

[wufwugy]

I think it is incredibly interesting that we have such a huge burst of posts from everyone today. Why? Is it really that we're about to win and this is a last ditch effort to stop it? Or is it that we're about to lose and the wolves are super encouraged?

It's Rilla who woke up. Because that's what wolves do, especially ones fighting for their lives.

And i still highly doubt rilla or keith are wolves.

Compare Rilla's posts about JV to Gator's and I think you'll be pleasantly surprised. Then contemplate why the in world JV would completely give up and let himself die like that. It was a plan, holmes. They knew they had to do it in order to win against a field of so many confirmed villagers. It was pretty smart, honestly.

@WUFWUGY: NO. We lynch one of the 3, then you shoot one, and I shoot one. Even if this fails, as per above, we're in excellent shape. Ill listen to any theories regarding rilla/keith/bikes wolf tomorrow should it come to that, but for now the wolfiest are still these three individuals known as gator,aubrey, and jyms.

I will shoot Gator > Jyms > Aubrey.

You shoot Aubrey > Jyms > Gator.

This way, no matter who dies...we will shoot different people. Yes, this telegraphs the kill to the wolves, but we can fuck with it (or not) when it gets close to lynch. Im reserving my vote till tomorrow.

Okay, I'll have to give my answer late tomorrow though because it will take me time to figure out who I want to shoot other than Jyms and Rilla if we somehow don't lynch Jyms or we do and he's a villager. I'm not worried about that happening though

[wufwugy]

..

[aubreymcfate]

[a500lbgorilla]

Aubrey, got any thoughts to share?

[a500lbgorilla]

I should add that the demoralization argument works very well for this game because it's super imba in favor of the villagers. I'll wait till after the game is over to discuss that, but notice how JV long ago said "I was thinking a mass outing could be great for the village". He was right. The wolves winning is a nearly impossible task because of the huge number of confirmed villagers, and they know it. This strongly suggests that their posting would be lackluster, and the posting of Rilla, Gator, and Keith is not that. Then there's Savy who isn't anywhere, Bikes who is the villageriest villager who ever villagered merely due to his near, and the only two remaining are the wolves. They start with a J, end with a Y, and in the middle spell Yms and Aubre

Remember the good times, wuf? REMEMBER!

I'd like to believe I rolled out that demoralization argument. Me with my beautiful brain.

[aubreymcfate]

Sure.

JKDS's plan seems pretty foolproof, so I've stopped caring as much if I get lynched.

I do, however, think we should emphasize the importance of not waiting for the three of us to get lynched before analyzing KBR, if it comes to that. I'm not entirely sure I understand the value of establishing a sequence of players we're going to lynch, and then treating it like it's set in stone.

I think after tonight's events, in which we'll have two reveals and a loooooot more information to go on, we should reevaluate each other, the game, and pretty much everything we ever knew about life. Seriously though, we need to take a breather and reread everything because, again, if we get up to KBR and then you guys have to scramble trying to figure shit out at that point... I dunno, it seems like it will be really easy for the last wolf in there to fool the rest of the village.

It's likely that even after reevaluating we'll want to go ahead with the same plan, which is great, and at least we'll know we thought about it instead of just going on autopilot. I don't like the idea that wolves can be sneaky in the beginning of the game and not get scrutinized till the very end. We should bring our optimal game at every single opportunity, at every single new piece of information, even if it's just a post. I don't really know what the point of playing is if we're not going to be militant about it.

Also, regarding me, 'cause I love talking about myself: Overall I think the accusations against me have been nonsensical. The only substantial piece of evidence against me is me nailing JV's wagon, and there's no way for me to conclusively defend myself against bad timing. I wish I knew how one, as a villager, might attain that holy "confirmed" status 'cause I'm going to feel really bad if we lose 'cause you guys had to lynch me and then fuck up on KBR.

[aubreymcfate]

Actually "confirmed" means you're an outed special or something. W/e the word is for groups like KBR where no one wants to touch them till the very end 'cause they're oh so villagery.

I'm still getting a feel for game terms, hence me using "lock villager" on savy like a total noob earlier in the game. But hey I was right, lol.

[a500lbgorilla]

You ever play as a wolf?

[aubreymcfate]

Nope. This is my third game ever. giiiiirl, you need to read my posts more carefully. I stated earlier in the game that not only is this my third game ever, but I had no idea wtf it was until just before my first game.

[wufwugy]

Remember the good times, wuf? REMEMBER!

I'd like to believe I rolled out that demoralization argument. Me with my beautiful brain.

You almost got away with it. It wasn't "demoralization" so much as "the only way we can win is by doing something crazy". It very nearly worked