Drug smugglers and Feds gameplay thread

[GatorJH]

Hahaha. Yeah, man.

If anyone's curious about Gator, he is in full on reach mode.

Nahhh, I know I am dead today. I'm just helping lead the village to the final wolf in case they don't believe just wuf.

[a500lbgorilla]

So then you'll be laying out all of your reads on everyone, I assume.

[GatorJH]

So then you'll be laying out all of your reads on everyone, I assume.

yep.

[jyms]

Wuf? Are you kidding. I've had pressure everyday this game has been played. I've been early lynch target and have been grouped in ever discussion as one of several choices

[Keith]

Knew it. So obvious.

I have a hard time believing aubrey is a wolf. I have an easy time believing Gator is a wolf.

I have an awkward time believing bikes is a wolf. Keith worries me. He's kept up a hyper low profile after putting together a string of real solid posts that made the game more difficult for the wolves, but he only generates new information on the pussy-killer and that's about it. In my mind, none of Aubrey/Jyms/Gator had as much right to the claim as Keith and he was positioning himself as if to reveal himself as a confirmed villager.

At this point, I can pretty much lay it out there that I'm on Gator full stop. I'd campaign for him, but I don't think many people are in the mood to be swayed by me.

Interesting part of this post to me was where rilla was trying to discredit me. He's saying that I was looking like i could reveal myself as the pk and become a confirmed player. JKDS has said i've evolved into a super villager. Me getting to the endgame is a disaster for the wolves. they have to discredit me. JUst as the other day rilla tried to discredit me by saying that the things i've done to make the game harder for the wolves could have been done by a wolf and doesn't make me a villager.now he's saying that i was positioning myself to reveal as a confirmed villager.

As for just doing stuff revolving around the PK, manipulating the PK kills is what will win this game for the village. AS far as i'm concerned rilla and gator have to die as at least one of them is probably a wolf.

[jyms]

I am of the opinion rilla must go.

lynch rilla

[GatorJH]

AS far as i'm concerned rilla and gator have to die as at least one of them is probably a wolf.

(cough cough) rilla (cough cough)

[a500lbgorilla]

Interesting part of this post to me was where rilla was trying to discredit me. He's saying that I was looking like i could reveal myself as the pk and become a confirmed player. JKDS has said i've evolved into a super villager. Me getting to the endgame is a disaster for the wolves. they have to discredit me. JUst as the other day rilla tried to discredit me by saying that the things i've done to make the game harder for the wolves could have been done by a wolf and doesn't make me a villager.now he's saying that i was positioning myself to reveal as a confirmed villager.

As for just doing stuff revolving around the PK, manipulating the PK kills is what will win this game for the village. AS far as i'm concerned rilla and gator have to die as at least one of them is probably a wolf.

Keith, why do you always have to shove words down my mouth. Read what I said again, read your interpretation. I never said a wolf could do this and that it doesn't make you a villager now.

Did I, Keith?

This is why you worry me. I don't know what you're doing at any point in this game, honestly. It doesn't mean anything about your role.

[a500lbgorilla]

I am of the opinion rilla must go.

lynch rilla

lol, whelp. I've made all of my thoughts through-out this thread. My last post is pretty much where I left off. I wish Jyms and Gator were the last wolves.

If it's just Gator, good luck sorting out Keith and Bikes. Bikes has a case on the back of how everyone has acted around him, which is why I described it as awkward.

If it's Aubrey, you played well. I never did fully flesh out my read, but at least I have some basis for placing your role and I've stated it previously for anyone who is curious.

[a500lbgorilla]

And guys, 3 weeks ago, if we surveyed this forum - "Which of the following is the stronger villager, and which is the stronger wolf."

GatorJH
a500lbgorilla

How would that survey go?

[JKDS]

unvote Gator

Looking back at day 1's eugmac wagon, I really dont get where it came from. The reasoning seemed poor, and it gained 10 votes very quickly. Of those ten votes, the only non confirmed on there are bikes, rilla, and gator. Ong was on it, JV wasnt.

Of these tree, none of them have great reasoning. Gator trusts a possible soul read by rilla, rilla posts a paragrah of nonsense, and bikes just bikes around. I think theres at least a second wolf on that eugmac wagon, and I think its either Gator or Rilla.

[JKDS]

Jym's post that implied he gave Gabe the bullet seems very credible, I really want to believe him. I wouldnt be surprised if he flipped fed though, given that his wagon on day 1 was full of exclusively villagers and the two known wolves being very wishy washy about him. Ive had a suspicion that someone else was the vig too. W/e, that sorts itself out tonight.

[a500lbgorilla]

Quote the paragraph of nonsense and I'll tell you where I was coming from. I'd like to believe I'm not that nonsensical.

[a500lbgorilla]

Oh, I remember, when gabe pressed eug, I liked gabe's case because it had all the hallmarks of gabe getting a read and none of the hallmarks of what wuf had put out there, then when eug seemed to panic-flee, I had to hop on.

[a500lbgorilla]

yep.

These won't show.

[GatorJH]

Ive had a suspicion that someone else was the vig too. W/e, that sorts itself out tonight.

Me too btw which kinda throws things out of whack because I now should review three unconfirmed instead of two.

[GatorJH]

These won't show.

yes they will. I am halfway through reviewing Keith and will post those thoughts within the next hour or so. Then it will be off to Bikes. I will take a deeper look at you after that just to see if I should change my mind.

[JKDS]

eugmac came in here like a god damn whirlwind and punched out just as quickly. I was seriously gone to the gym for 1 hour.

rescind jyms lynch eugmac

I was intending to switch to aubrey. For one, I don't think jyms is a pressing target and the last few posts he's made in response to me tell me he's only going to be easier to read as the game goes on. And earlier JKDS mentioned fencesitter, and aubrey's posts from the second page on really strike me as just that. I was going to pull my case together but gabe's case (which is unlike wufs which I described as "optic") and eugmac's whirlwind - disconnected - I'm outta here response is just incredible.

And this was a comment about aubrey.

(Eug) "I thought I'd point out that it's super duper easy to take advantage of a relative noob's (my) inherent lack of credibility. Of course, the other option would be to ignore me, because the lack of credibility means such relatively unfounded, preliminarly thoughts shouldn't carry any clout to pose a danger to the wolves."

But I'd like to just point out - I think he's saying 1: A wolf would focus on me [as I can be worked]. or 2: A wolf would not focus on me [as I am no threat]. Which makes me feel like his last flurry of posts were very panicked/rushed/sloppy or some word that blends all three.

This whirlwind thing isnt very convincing. People have reasons they can only post sporadically, and Eug wasnt even a leading wagon when he did it. Then you spend so much more time beefing up your vote post with stuff about aubrey for some reason.

Your second explanation (which was unnecessary as your reasoning was not attacked and gabe was already pushing the wagon) doesnt actually explain anything either. It fails to show why rushed = wolfy, but it does seem like you were paranoid that your first explanation wasn't good enough. You tried to preempt an attack on your eug vote imo.

[a500lbgorilla]

That second post had nothing to do with the first post?

Eug quoted a post I made about Aubrey (one where I bounced off his post to take a swipe at her), and Eug took it to reflect something about him.

I'm not gonna be able to stay on very much longer. I won't really be able to defend myself but for a brief window tomorrow morning.

I'll let you all to the discussion, as hopefully something comes of it.

I really thought I was putting in a pretty stronger villager effort all game. Shrug.

[a500lbgorilla]

Also, it was day 1 and I'm allowed to be wrong about stuff.

[JKDS]

Wolves, by necessity, are wrong a lot too. Wolves, by necessity, like to play the role of villager too.

But my suspicion isnt because your wrong. Its because
1) I think more than just ong was on Eug's wagon
2) Your reasoning for hoping on it was really weak and wolfy, especially considering how much you were stuck on jyms just before.

[a500lbgorilla]

Well, nothing I can do about that.

[JKDS]

@Wuf: I find your reason that gator cant be a fed (the 5 votes on one page thing) unconvincing. If gator was a fed, of course a wolf would jump on. Thats pretty standard wolf meta anyway.

[GatorJH]

OK. I am going to start posting my thoughts on Keith. Instead of one long post I am going to break them down so if anyone wants to reference a single part it will be easier.

Post #81 on Day 1, page 2. I am not sure a Fed would mention a fellow Fed here but he can't ignore it either so neutral.

MMM really ought to consider that many of us have previous experience of wuf distracting the village. I'm not even sure what the hell you are trying to suggest by putting that about ongie in response to what i said about wuf. If i meant Ongie i'd have lynched ongie. It certainly doesn't give you much credibility for deductive reasoning in the endgame.

This almost looks like a deflective protection of wuf by refocussing my post onto Ongie. MMM and wuf as a wolf team with the noob making a mistake?

[GatorJH]

Quote #287 on page 6. Sorta defends Ong again and explains why he hasn't posted. Not much here unless they had an early strategy to not post much, which could also apply to Bikes. Overall feeling - meh.

been on a tractor all day yesterday and today(mowing/carting grass that referred to yesterday) , hence lack of posts, same again tomorrow but should then be back to normal posting volumes.

Have read through a couple of times , and sticking with my wuf vote. seems to be a weird circle of ongie/wuf/jyms linking themselves together. Why is wuf trying to start a ong v jyms wagon.

Wuf also doesn't seem to be posting /reacting like usual. his volume is way down to normal and instead of rabid self defence he's trying to laff off and ignore my bolding him. As if he's not trying to draw attention to himself.

Ong just happened to point at wuf as one of his multi lynches. around #202 jyms and ong are talking about wolf strategies and distancing themselves , #205 ong says in one game as a wolf they avoided each other and in anotyher they were lynching each other regularly. It just seems to me that the three of them are giving themselves cover if one of them goes down as a wolf . Jyms probably less involved than wuf and Ong

[GatorJH]

btw the above post was just hours before the day closed out. Coincidence?

[GatorJH]

Q 354 on page 8 (day 2)

This is where it starts to get interesting. Whenever I see posts like this I wonder if someone is special hunting.

looks to me as though its just that player that was saved last night that will be protected on future nights but not every night and angel has to decide each night if he uses up one of his limited number of protections.I'm assuming its just the one player from the wording
not sure about the call the favour in once bit though, i'm taking it to mean that that means one player gets protected but it could mean that each player can only be protected once

[GatorJH]

Q 359 on page 8. Very fluffy imo and looks like he is just looking at wuf instead of everybody. More wolfish than villagery imo.

I don't understand the logic of why people suddenly think its a good idea with relatively little info to run an X vs Y contest. we've had wuf mention it with jyms vs ong and hoopy with eug vs Aubrey or eug vs ?? in that # 318 post. why not let wagons develop naturally for a reason and let people defend themselves against that reason. blindly saying lets choose between X and Y seems to be a great way for wolves to try and flush out the specials in the village or make sure that the wagon isn't against a fellow wolf.

If hoopy and wuf are so in favour of head to head races ...let them go up against each other and prove the validity of their suggested method at finding wolves. I'm certainly suspicious of wuf. And the way he reacted to me lynching him was different in this game than when i've tried to lynch him when he was a villager in previous games.

lynch wuf

[GatorJH]

his next few posts were defending himself and then going after Jyms. Nothing noteworthy and looks a tad more villagery than wolfish.

Q 416 on page 9. Looks like he is buddying up to rilla here. Not sure why.

rilla , what do you think about jyms mentioning the same names as possible angel saves that i said without adding in other potential names. .It seems to me that he was trying to limit how much he actually said as he'd been caught in an error. Also note the extra names that i said could have been angel saves


i said bikes,jkds and rilla were also possible people that others may save rather than themselves. Jyms addressed rilla and bikes . Why steer clear of explaining why he didn't mention JKDS who claims to be the angel.

[GatorJH]

Q 499 on page 10.

This one is very interesting. Take a look at the piece I extracted. Was this a wolf slipup on what they were planning to do that night.

[COLOR="rgb(255, 140, 0)"]Now its obvious for wuf or JKDS to take out wuf tonight[/COLOR]

the more i look at the rules the more i hate wuf's outing. Wuf makes SDM look good . He turned the seer into a single lookup. Once you die and are shown to be the receiver the seer then is useless and should out themselves to confirm themselves as a villager.Wolves can't make the claim without revealing themselves so in this case its better to preempt a fake outing by a wagonned wolf.

I don't think that reviver should act today as he may get a better choice tomorrow night of people who may bring extra to the game.Whoever gets revived only has a limited lifespan as the wolves have to take out known roles. I think that we should drag today out as long as possible to give pascal a chance to get involved and avoid the modkill. Modkills must work in the wolves favour as they make it one player closer to them winning and potentially one less chance for us to find a wolf

Jyms latest posts seem highly stupid or wolfy to me. I got slaughtered games ago when i originally suggested leaving an outed wolf alive for the vig to shoot. [COLOR="rgb(255, 140, 0)"]Now its obvious for wuf or JKDS to take out wuf tonight[/COLOR]....so WTF is he lynching Ong for. Also why is he pressing on with lynching without giving pascal a chance to get involved in the game.
I'm gonna rescind Jyms for now but i want to hang jyms.If pascal comes along , i'm going to change jyms back to a lynch otherwise i'll be lynching pascal to avoid the modkill

[GatorJH]

not sure why the font didn't change color, but whatever.

[GatorJH]

Q 524 on page 11

As a wolf I usually love pointing out irrelevant stuff like this.

yet again ......another person talking about lynching pascal tonight ......its daytime .....village acts in the day.....lynchs occur in the daytime ......so why are people talking about lynching tonight?

[GatorJH]

Q 586 on page 11 - Pretty villagery unless the intent was to flood the village with info that can be construed multiple ways.

ok so this is how the voting affected the wagons. I missed out dome of the voting where the person voted for didn't affect the major vote counts and the people at risk


22 jkds jyms (jyms 1)
87 ng jyms (jyms2)
88 MMM jyms (jyms 3)
100 wuf daven (jyms 3 daven 1)
101 ong daven (jyms 3 daven 2)
104 aubrey daven (jyms 3 daven 3)
115 sav jyms (jyms 4 daven 3)
116 gabe bikes (jyms 4 daven 3 bikes 1)
119 jv bikes (jyms 4 daven 3 bikes 2)
120 luco jyms (jyms 5 daven 3 bikes 2)
132 hoopy pascal ???
150 jyms bikes (jyms 5 : daven 3 bikes 3) why didnt jyms go daven???
164 jkds rescind jyms (jyms 4 : daven 3 bikes 3)
165NG rescind jyms lynch bikes (jyms 3 : daven 3 bikes 4)
184 ong rescind daven lynch eugmac (jyms 3 : daven 2 bikes 4:eug)
185 ng rescinds bikes lynch pascal (jyms 3 : daven 2 bikes 3:eug 1: pascal3)
209 luco rescind jyms lynch gabe (jyms 2 : daven 2 bikes 3:eug 1: pascal3)
211MMM rescind jyms lynch gabe (jyms 1 : daven 2 bikes 3:eug 1: pascal3)
239 rilla rescind ong lynch jyms (jyms 2 : daven 2 bikes 3:eug 1: pascal3)
250 gabe rescind bikes eug (jyms 2 : daven 2 bikes 2:eug 2: pascal3)
252 JV rescind bikes lynch keith (jyms 2 : daven 2 bikes 1:eug 2: pascal3)
277 eug rescind gizmo lynch gabe

#282rong count (wrong ....corrected for pascal error)
Pascal - 2 (Hoopy, Bikes)
Gabe - 3 (Luco, MMM, Eug)
Wuf - 2 (Keith, Daven)
Jyms - 2 (Rilla, Savy)
Daven - 2 (Wuf, Aubrey)
Eug - 2 (Ong, Gabe)
Bikes - 1 (Jyms)
Savy - 1 (JKDS)
Keith - 1 (JV)

#288 bikes rescind pascal lynch eug (pascal 1 gabe 3 wuf 2 jyms 2 daven 2 eug 3)
#289 rilla rescind jyms lynch eug (pascal 1 gabe 3 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 4)
#293 luco rescind gabe lynch eug (pascal 1 gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 5)
#294 ong rescind eug lynch daven (pascal 1 gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 3 eug 4)
#302 JV rescind keith lynch daven (pascal 1 gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 4 eug 4)
#305 ong rescind daven (pascal 1 gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 3 eug 4)
#317 gator lynch eug (pascal 1 gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 3 eug 5)
#320 wuf rescind daven lynch gabe (pascal 1 gabe 3 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 6)
#323 MMM rescind gabe lynch eug(pascal 1 gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 6)
#327 ong lycnh eug (pascal 1 gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 7)
#329 hoopy rescind pascal lynch eug (gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 8)
#333 NG lynch eug (gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 9)
#336 jyms rescinds bikes
#344 wuf rescind gabe lynch eug (gabe 1 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 10)

[GatorJH]

Q 593 on page 11 (He quoted multiple things so go to the quote for full context).

Had they figured out hoopy was a special

so did hoopy also do the obvious wolf behaviour and vote for his co wolf to distance themselves . can see them laffing about this sequence in the wolf den. so Hoopy for one of the extra wolves ?

[GatorJH]

#599 on page 11

Trying to get info so the wolves know what to do at night?

second this although if wuf is likely to be shooting a different wolf the wolves may be forced to block vig and eat wuf to stop us getting info on that other wolf.

[GatorJH]

Above 2 posts are on page 12, not 11.

[GatorJH]

#627 on page 13. This is an example of why the vote count could be helpful as a wolf since the numbers can be looked at multiple ways.

looking back at the #150 jyms vote ......why did he go for bikes and not Daven. how about because jyms and daven are wolves together. haven't gone back to look at the conversational posts to see if any of these wolf suspects were pointing at bikes and playing down jyms/daven just looking at the effect of the votes at the moment. #164 and #165 result n bikes in the lead. ong then gets off daven to make another of the wolf suspects safer.Ong probably doesn't want to show up as the guy swinging the wagon towards bikes but does this make jyms wolfier than bikes by avoiding voting for daven at that critical time and putting pressure on bikes so tha wagon takes off. the wagons fizzle out after that

[GatorJH]

# 636 on page 13

Villager credit

seer could look up gabe, wuf gets the result before he shoots and before he dies so can use the answer to influence his shot.

Side note: I pointed out the same thing.

[GatorJH]

Spent the next few posts discussing lookup and vig actions. Villager points.

[wufwugy]

@Wuf: I find your reason that gator cant be a fed (the 5 votes on one page thing) unconvincing. If gator was a fed, of course a wolf would jump on. Thats pretty standard wolf meta anyway.

I disagree, I don't think a fed jumps on Gator like that. At that point, they needed to protect the hell out of each other. The Gator wagon wasn't about anything that substantive and took off quickly. That would be an amazing kill for the wolves to get, and if Gator was a wolf they would likely have been focusing on killing one of RBK. Also note how Gator changed his tune on Bikes after new evidences showed up. Unlike Rilla who hasn't let any new information change his opinion on Gator or Jyms. No matter what, he thinks Gator is a wolf, and no matter what, he refuses to stick to his million comments about Jyms being a wolf

Jyms' Rilla bold is elite. The plan is for people to not like killing Rilla and ultimately lynching Gator, then Jyms gets shot over the night, and it looks like the last wolf must be Keith since Jyms bolded Rilla in such a hardcore spot. They wouldn't do it except their backs are against the wall

[GatorJH]

He spent the first few posts on day 3 defending himself against rilla then posted the following:

Q 762 on page 16

TBH this screams like a "hey look how villagery I look kinda post" Almost as if he was purposefully doing the prior stuff just so he could point it out.

a wolf can tally votes ....but point me to an instance where a wolf has done it and done it so that it shows how the major bandwagons were affected all through the voting. Also when i tallied the votes the #150 vote by Jyms was very strange to me when he voted bikes(2) rather than daven(3) . We now know daven is village and daven had taken heat, so why didn't a villager jyms vote daven and make it 5:4. why vote bikes and make it 5:3:3. If jyms thought he was dieing was it to give a fellow wolf cover?

I brought up jyms #150 post yesterday and he didn't comment on it . perhaps he can rectify that now.

As for villager advice , of course wolves can do it. but if i was a wolf it was totally unnecessary for me to actively suggest a method that village could use to exploit the rules and potentially find out two roles. Much better for the woolf team to keep quiet and only let the village find out one role.

Also why suggest the reviver out themselves to prevent a wolf claim. It gives an extra know role for the villagers and makes it harder for the wolves.In isolation wolves could one , but why do all three and make it much harder for the wolf team.

[GatorJH]

Q 778 on page 16 (another one with multiple quotes so check it out yourselves) has keith defending himself against rilla again then throws out a vote for rilla. Could just be a frustrating villager vote or a Fed going on the offensive.

[GatorJH]

Q 828 on page 17. I don't have the entire quote here (it is long and again contains quotes in it) but I put in the below because a couple of things in it stood out to me.

First the "I am going to put myself up for lynch" strategy. I successfully used that as a villager last game and was wondering when a wolf would use it to defer heat. Not sure if that is happening here but thought I would mention it.

Secondly, and more damning imo is the "don't lynch me before I get a chance to post" as this makes him look like he is hinting that he could be a special here.

This isn't me trying to save myself .....this is me putting myself forward as todays lynch candidate so that the pussy killer doesn't get lynched today and the pussy killer will then get to act tomorrow night.there is no upside in this for me . I'm hoping that the fact that pussy killer gets a chance to act tomorrow and rilla likely being a wolf who will die will offset the loss of someone who has done a lot to show he is village.

if you lynch me today, remember my reasoning , rilla's actions and lynch him tomorrow.Before the kill is confirmed i want to go through and give some thoughts on a couple of "unknowns" that i think are villagers and the reasons why. Got to get some work done so it will be 3 or 4 hours before i'm back on so make sure the wolves can't rush the wagon on me through before i get to post.

[GatorJH]

Btw, I was also reviewing JV's and Ong's posts and through page 17 I don't believe JV or Ong ever mentioned Keith once. I found that interesting.

[GatorJH]

Q 865 on page 18 also offers up as a lynch as long as rilla goes next. Indifferent on this one, but it leans villagery.

[GatorJH]

#883 on page 18

Offers up again to be lynched but counters with "I should be a lock villager just by offering".

see thats what i mean about you, the wolves aren't gonna eat you and you know it , they have a whole list of known villagers to work through first. You are putting yourself out there to be eaten by the wolves....its a complete worthless gesture , because if you are a villager it ain't gonna happen , and if you are a wolf it aint gonna happen.

I'm called for the village to lynch me today so that i die and protect the pussy killer. rongs new vig shot defeats the object of putting the village in a mathematical lock position ,but if the village want to help protect the pussy killer by lynching me today i'm fine with it. You haven't even discussed why i would volunteer to die as a wolf.a wolf just wouldn't do it .

[GatorJH]

Q 1031 on page 21.

this one I find VERY interesting and although it is long will re-post it here. I put in the quotes that he used and hopefully this isn't too hard to read.

What I find VERY Interesting about this is that 1) he goes after Aubrey pretty hard and although she had gotten heat from others at the same time he went pretty hard (separation strategy?)

2) is this part - "Gator then seemed to be the one that restarted the JV wagon and posted quite a long accusatory post against him. maybe this is the time that the wolves decided to throw JV under the wagon and gain some villager credit and rilla came in and helped develop the evidence against JV. I'd shown how they were screwed mathematically and the wolves desperately needed some village cover. Its much easier to target a fellow wolf as you know the reasons for their posts already."

JV hadn't been lynched at this point so there was no way to know if he was a villager or Fed yet Keith is talking like he knows how it will turn out.

lost this the first time i was doing it so retyping from memory
__________________________________________________ _______________________
Originally Posted by NightGizmo
There are 6 votes on JV. I'm going to hold off voting for him right now, so we aren't one vote away from ending the day. I currently have the vote count at:

JV - 6 (gabe, gator, jkds, jyms, rilla, wuf)
bikes - 3 (aubrey, jv, savy)
jyms - 1 (daven)
rilla - 1 (monkey) END QUOTE
__________________________________________________ _______________________

Originally Posted by NightGizmo
aubrey's latest post makes it 7 for JV, btw. One more vote and the day is over. I'm not putting the nail in the coffin when we have so much time left today. Ending the day early only helps the wolves.
END QUOTE
__________________________________________________ _______________________

gizmo and aubrey posted about a minute apart, can't see them posting opposite views that close together if they are both wolves. ALso , why would a wolf gizmo try and hold this wagon up. wolves probably have 2 kills tonight they'd love to get the day over and use their kills especially if JV has been thrown under the bus. Wolf Gizmo could have hopped on the wagon and hoped others didn't realise that the next bold would be a kill vote.
__________________________________________________ _______________________
Originally Posted by aubreymcfate
oh yeah, I don't want to end the day early.

rescind jv

just in case some noob strolls in and fucks our shit up.
END QUOTE
__________________________________________________ _______________________

Why is Aubrey worried about a noob coming in and "fucking our shit up". Surely she should be worried that a wolf could bold JV and end the day. does she know the wolves are already on this wagon and can't finish it off, and she can only know that bty being a wolf.

__________________________________________________ _______________________

Originally Posted by aubreymcfate
but when i jumped to the bikes wagon when everyone thought he was wolfy, that wasn't wolfbikes telling me to throw him under the bus?

i've made it very clear that i find jv hard to read - that's not something i just made up on the spot. i had an especially hard time reading him during my first game.

i read through the reasoning for JV, and it made a lot of sense. i could paraphrase why but that's just redundancy. i'm not taking a college class, i'm playing a game. i don't need to show my work when it's unnecessary. i'm placing trust in the stronger villagers, going on the bandwagon, and trying to draw further analysis (in this case, what JV being wolf means for bikes) so that i'm not a completely useless echo.

why am I somehow the only one you accuse of being told to throw JV under the bus? why not gator, or jyms?

if it's because i was later than them, it's because i had a yoga class this evening and got home a bit later than usual.
END QUOTE
__________________________________________________ _______________________
SUrely you should be placing trust in the known villagers , not unknowns trying to shape the villagers thoughts. Wolves are quite happy to follow others arguments as it draws less attention to themselves.
Interesting that you avoid rilla in the bit where you talk about being told to throw someone under the bus.

__________________________________________________ _______________________
Originally Posted by aubreymcfate
I don't really think Rilla is a wolf but I said I wouldn't be surprised precisely because I think he's capable. and I've never been a wolf, I have no idea how fancy or intricate their plans can get. Imagine you were only ever a villager - how could you possibly be as discerning about that sort of thing?

And while I did read through the whole thing it was mostly Rilla that jumped out at me, particularly his commentary on being in the game rather than outside of the game. In my "lynch jv" post I made particular note of that.

Also, who really started going hard after JV. Rilla, or Gator? Who really led that? Rilla hands down had the strongest arguments, and he was the first to actually come down hard starting around post 948, if not earlier.
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Are you honestly claiming that you haven't read the last couple of wolf threads when they have been revealed at the end of the game? If you have you would have plenty of insight into how the wolves work without having been one.

Also, interesting how you want to know who went after JV first. rong posted the night results and 7 minutes later rilla came in with 2 definate wolves and said that the cases against them stand on their on merits....but then didn't make the cases against them at all.He was more interested at then pointing the finger at me . Also he then went on to say that he misread the hoopy result. Then he questioned how the wolves found him. really?? was this a subtle piece of misdirection trying to get us to think that he didn't think hoopy could have been seer and that he thought he was a fed so that rilla couldn't be a fed.

Gator then seemed to be the one that restarted the JV wagon and posted quite a long accusatory post against him. maybe this is the time that the wolves decided to throw JV under the wagon and gain some villager credit and rilla came in and helped develop the evidence against JV. I'd shown how they were screwed mathematically and the wolves desperately needed some village cover. Its much easier to target a fellow wolf as you know the reasons for their posts already.

The thing that i find fascinating is that #871 rong posts the compensation that the wolves are going to get an extra wolf kill tonight to balance up the villagers gabe lookup. 1 minute later rilla is posting to help develop the case against JV. I wouldn't be surprised if rong had posted his intended actions in the wolf thread and this caused the wolves to ask for a bit of time before he posted it into the thread . then they decided to throw JV under the bus and gain villager cred as the extra kill suddenly gave them a chance at a win.Rilla may have been intending to get his post out before rong posted but the change in tack from rilla 1 minute after rong posted seems to be really suspicious timing.rilla could easily have done a refresh , seen no rong post and hit submit and then found out that his post came after rongs.




I just don't see gizmo as a wolf ,partly for the reasons i gave above and partly for the day 1 posts where he tried to stop any discussion about JKDS being able to have any more saves. I was extremely carefully about the way i phrased one of my posts to say that JKDS had confirmed he only had a 1 shot save as i didn't know whether he had said that as a misdirection to confuse the wolves. A wolf wouldn't want to stop any discussion about it but it stuck in my mind at that time that he was a likely villager.

[GatorJH]

That takes me through Day 3 and I have the following thoughts. On the surface Keith seems pretty villagery but almost TOO villagery. Up to that last post I had him villager more often than not.

[GatorJH]

I am going to stop there because until the third Fed is found it is too difficult to read into posts.

Plus it is getting late here and I want to, at least, take a quick look at Bikes before I go to bed.

[GatorJH]

His first post after showing up late is this...

don't like lynching gabe now because he carries super hard early game and rarely if ever makes mid game.

but then posts this as his very next post. His stance on Gabe is almost opposite.

jyms is talking an awful lot for day 1 dunno why. either you give yourself away as a villager early and get shot/nommed/killed whatever it is this game or you give yourself away as a wolf. w/e about missing 2/5 inactives. no stratagem would be that obvious.

normally i'd go with gabe on day 1 but seeing as he wants to lynch me (for totally justified reasons :[ )

i'll go with a pascal unless he shows up seeing as hes gonna be modkilled

[GatorJH]

Q 288 on page 6 again reverses stance on Gabe so he can jump on Eug's wagon late.

rescind pascal

lynch eug

gabe far more valuable than eugmac and i dont want to lose gabe day1

[GatorJH]

Q 352 on page 8

He doesn't want to seem absent and puts in the standard congratulatory post.

4am going to sleep. will read when i wake up. congrats angel on teh save obv. lynching pascal on day 1 would have been a poor choice.

[GatorJH]

Q 387 on page 8.

Shortly after this post JV bolded Bikes. Maybe they decided early to go after each other to minimize the potential lookups?

lynch aubrey

super intresting you put forth such a long ass defense so early in a day when theres only like 2 votes against you. also in gabe we trust.

[GatorJH]

Q 429 on page 9

At this point there was heat on several people including Gabe and now he wants him dead? He can't seem to make up his mind on how he feels about Gabe.

Btw, this would be an easy ploy to pull off and look villagery because the wolves know that they can just re-kill Gabe.

ok so unless i've read these rules wrong, which are confusing as fuck to begin with, we have until night 3 to use our revive.

so strategically we should use it on someone who owns at this game so we can know if they are a gtd villager and rez them and if not, one less super good wolf amirite?

the choices remain on when to use it. there is a non 0% chance the rezzer dies tonight which would be bad. so we should use it now and not take that chance because after re-reading the rules i'm not sure of how big of an edge the village has.

So I vote either gabe or gator gets lynched today and rezzed tonight. I think those are the two most dangerous people and the two biggest carries in WW.

Oh it also goes without saying that Vig "pussy slayer? wtf dan?" should not shoot anyone atm because losing 2 people sucks.

lynch gabe

[GatorJH]

Q 432 on page 9. This is just horrible advice because an absent pascal can't shoot.

fkkkkk u pascal. stall this game as long as possible and then have the village agree on someone to shoot and use pascal as the killer

[bikes]

Q 432 on page 9. This is just horrible advice because an absent pascal can't shoot.

not my fault the rules were super hard to understand early cause they weren't clarified. >.>

[bikes]

just got out of work btw. gotta read all this gator stuffs. posts inc

[GatorJH]

Q 552 on page 12

JV actually mentions the strategy so he can discredit it. JKDS had asked him who he thought the other wolves were.

Hm, one of bikes and aubrey, possibly both but that would mean bikes tried to throw aubrey under the bus, doesn't seem that likely. Daven is being a bit strange, but like I said before most likely villager. Then some open options for Hoopy (I always find him wolfy), MMM (I don't know him), Jyms (being so.. mysterious). Playing in the micromillions on stars atm so have to focus on that.

[GatorJH]

Q 604 on page 13

No mention of JV even though JV had bolded him (iirc) and Aubrey is all the way at the bottom of the list.

i'm about to head out for the evening and won't probably be back until tomorrow afternoon. i'm not a fed/wolf/whateverhgdshalkgjhlas but i'm pretty sure this sun has set so....

when I get lynched these are my reads.

wufwugy is super try harding these games and probably not a fed given the super long winded posts about tl'dr could be summed up so much easier for much less reading.

jyms is doing nothing but constantly posting misdirection this game and probably should not live past mid game.

GATOR IS PLAYING THIS GAME?

i never know what level gabe is on, all i know is that every training video i've ever seen him in describes him as being one step ahead and i can confirm this after playing live with him in vegas. gabe is either super valuable to the village or super detrimental. he should def die by day 3 but not day 1 because no one can work magic on day 1 and it's a waste of a super valuable villager if you miss that 1/5 chance he's a wolf on day 1. if gabe is indeed a fed i would literally disregard every post he's made.

i dunno wtf daven is doing this game, he could easily be a wolf or a trying to appear like a wolfy villager like i do every game so i can make it to midgame- late game. which is a super op strat. farm information and wreck people late.

people say ong is a wolf and who am i to argue

nightgizmo is calling people out for posting no content yet posting little himself so use that info fwiw.

keith no idea

rilla is probably town but i cant be certain

pascal still mia

aubery is still new at this game so i cant tell if she's just confused in general but i think shes probably town a majority of the time as well.

no idea on imsavy either. no phone+ no internet sounds horrible if true.

no idea on anyone else i forgot either.

[GatorJH]

and again wants vig to give pascal the bullet

vig dont forget to shoot someone and use pascal as the shooter otherwise he's a wasted death with no benefit to the village and a 1/4.5 chance at a wolf is not bad at this point in the game.

[GatorJH]

I will have to do the rest tomorrow, but right now Bikes looks more Fed than villager.

[bikes]

atm i dunno what to think if jyms is actually pker or not. i do know if you cherry pick my early posts when i didnt have time to read all the rules clearly u will think i am a wolf. i am not. need more time to read and think.

[wufwugy]

I won't be back on until after the Day is over. If I get the bullet we know that Jyms isn't the real vig and I'll shoot Jyms, if JKDS gets it we know that Jyms is the real vig and JKDS can shoot whoever he likes.

I hope to god I'm right about Rilla/Jyms. If not I look like a doof and the village could lose because of it. Anyways, the fact remains that the way to play WW is to go epic or go home.

[a500lbgorilla]

Jyms' Rilla bold is elite.

Because nothing is what it seems. It's not that Jyms finds me wolfy largely because I've been so relentlessly after him and anytime his feeling was able to bubble up with some public support, he put it out there. (I'm pretty sure he wagoned me on day 3 too.) No, it's not that because we don't live in Occam's world. Everything has to be master-strokes and brilliant-schemes.

[a500lbgorilla]

I hope to god I'm right about Rilla/Jyms. If not I look like a doof and the village could lose because of it. Anyways, the fact remains that the way to play WW is to go epic or go home.

Fancy Play Syndrome.

[a500lbgorilla]

How have none of Aubrey/Bikes/Keith weighed in on my wagon?

This is astonishing to me. It's a late game day and this is an important time to be doing work for the village, even if that work is just voicing your perspective, since, as a villager, your perspective needs to dilute the wolves perspective.

Aubrey has been completely MIA. I had a thought on her, but it serves no ends sharing it now.

Keith and Bikes have both shown that they're in the thread. Keith continues to maintain that hyper-low profile I spoke of earlier. While all of the fireworks between me, wuf, Gator and eventually a little of JKDS, were going off, all he cares to talk about is how easily he can read between the lines of my posts. "Now, Rilla is saying that a villager is never named Keith and a wolf could be." Bikes has been the same zero he's been all game.

You 3 may well be the final 3 in this village, and none of you seem to be concerned by that.

If wuf gets the bullet tonight, I've got to believe Gator is the last wolf. I'm not going to spend much time on this, because it's a long-shot god-send if we still have a vig out there.

I can't believe JKDS would shoot anyone who isn't Gator tonight. Of the final 3, I can't pick out the wolf. My gut would point me towards Keith because seeing his role would be the most interesting thing to me, really. If bikes wins, who cares? Guy phoned it in hard, I'm willing to lose to that. And I've put out my reads on aubrey, but I caution that I haven't gone through and really figured them out.

lynch Gator

[a500lbgorilla]

Oh, and to K/B/A, more reason to pipe up. If Jyms is the vig, Gator is a wolf, and wuf and JKDS are confirmed, the last wolf is going to watch my wagon go by without putting any identifying information out there. What an opportunity lost that would be.

[GatorJH]

Aubrey has been completely MIA. I had a thought on her, but it serves no ends sharing it now.

Keith and Bikes have both shown that they're in the thread. Keith continues to maintain that hyper-low profile I spoke of earlier. While all of the fireworks between me, wuf, Gator and eventually a little of JKDS, were going off, all he cares to talk about is how easily he can read between the lines of my posts. "Now, Rilla is saying that a villager is never named Keith and a wolf could be." Bikes has been the same zero he's been all game.

You 3 may well be the final 3 in this village, and none of you seem to be concerned by that.

If wuf gets the bullet tonight, I've got to believe Gator is the last wolf. I'm not going to spend much time on this, because it's a long-shot god-send if we still have a vig out there.

I can't believe JKDS would shoot anyone who isn't Gator tonight. Of the final 3, I can't pick out the wolf. My gut would point me towards Keith because seeing his role would be the most interesting thing to me, really. If bikes wins, who cares? Guy phoned it in hard, I'm willing to lose to that. And I've put out my reads on aubrey, but I caution that I haven't gone through and really figured them out.

lynch Gator

You call me a wolf because you say I am not putting in the effort yet your post here CLEARLY shows that you are doing just that.

"I had a thought on her, but it serves no ends sharing it now." If you were a villager you would share everything you have to help the village.

"And I've put out my reads on aubrey, but I caution that I haven't gone through and really figured them out." - Really rilla?

[Keith]

Quote #287 on page 6. Sorta defends Ong again and explains why he hasn't posted. Not much here unless they had an early strategy to not post much, which could also apply to Bikes. Overall feeling - meh.

Quote Originally Posted by Keith View Post
been on a tractor all day yesterday and today(mowing/carting grass that referred to yesterday) , hence lack of posts, same again tomorrow but should then be back to normal posting volumes.

Have read through a couple of times , and sticking with my wuf vote. seems to be a weird circle of ongie/wuf/jyms linking themselves together. Why is wuf trying to start a ong v jyms wagon.

Wuf also doesn't seem to be posting /reacting like usual. his volume is way down to normal and instead of rabid self defence he's trying to laff off and ignore my bolding him. As if he's not trying to draw attention to himself.

Ong just happened to point at wuf as one of his multi lynches. around #202 jyms and ong are talking about wolf strategies and distancing themselves , #205 ong says in one game as a wolf they avoided each other and in anotyher they were lynching each other regularly. It just seems to me that the three of them are giving themselves cover if one of them goes down as a wolf . Jyms probably less involved than wuf and Ong

strange you don't think its worth mentioning the names linked together here . A known wolf, a special in wuf and jyms who is now either wolf or special. If Jyms comes back wolf tonight, would a wolf really link two other wolves together like this?.

[jyms]

You guys are really messed up. Thinking that the timing of my outing and the fact that nobody has challenged that means I may still be a wolf? Talk about being confused. My roll will be revealed soon enough, no way I live to get another shot after tonight. You need to take me out of the mix, search for two and find them. Allowing more confusion no when we have no great reads, and we don't, is just clutter.

[Keith]

btw the above post was just hours before the day closed out. Coincidence?

None at all, was on a tractor from 8am til 10-30pm each day mowing grass, then carting it from field to clamp to make into silage. Its non stop all day with sandwiches eaten on the move. There is no time to read forums at all. got home read the thread, posted and went to bed.

[GatorJH]

strange you don't think its worth mentioning the names linked together here . A known wolf, a special in wuf and jyms who is now either wolf or special. If Jyms comes back wolf tonight, would a wolf really link two other wolves together like this?.

Do you REALLY honk Jyms ever comes back Fed here?

[GatorJH]

Honk = think above.

Damn iphone

[Keith]

Q 354 on page 8 (day 2)

This is where it starts to get interesting. Whenever I see posts like this I wonder if someone is special hunting.

looks to me as though its just that player that was saved last night that will be protected on future nights but not every night and angel has to decide each night if he uses up one of his limited number of protections.I'm assuming its just the one player from the wording
not sure about the call the favour in once bit though, i'm taking it to mean that that means one player gets protected but it could mean that each player can only be protected once

rather conveniently misses out the context though doesn't it. how about when you add in that Luco had just posted

Day 2 bitches!

If I'm reading that last sentence right, the angel is (was) a one shot. The opening dialogue said there was a limit to how many times angel could block, so that limit is one?

If it makes a difference, here's the Eug votes in the order that they occured: Ong (later rescinded), Gabe, Bikes,rilla, Luco, Gator, MMM, Ong (again), Hoopy, Gizmo, Wuf.

I'm guessing the stealing Eug's heart is for the revival thing, if he gets chosen there needs to be a way for the story to resurrect him.

We shoulda just lynched Pascal.

My post was a reply to his speculation about whether the angel had another shot or not and before JKDS posted that he only had one shot and the next post was rong clarifying the situation.Your quote also misses out the quotes from the rules which my post was interpreting.

[Keith]

Q 359 on page 8. Very fluffy imo and looks like he is just looking at wuf instead of everybody. More wolfish than villagery imo.

why ....i always stick with people i think are wolves as a villager rather than jumping from player to player. Wuf was acting differently and I thought that made him a wolf.