[10NL] 44...3bet pot...line check.

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 25/21/12 over 116 hands. Att to Steal in LP is 40%, on button is 33%. Fold to 3bet, 86%. Sample size too small for fold to cbet %.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $16.97
Hero (SB): $17.23
BB: $3.13
UTG: $4.80
CO: $17.38

Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 4 4

fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.35, Hero raises to $1.30, fold, BTN calls $0.95

Flop: ($2.70, 2 players) 3 9 2
Hero bets $1.30, BTN calls $1.30

Turn: ($5.30, 2 players) 4
Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50

River: ($10.30, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, BTN bets $6.00, fold

Firstly, I am going to apologize for any trivial/straightforward hands that I might post. Having another shot at 10NL so want as much feedback/help as possible.

OK, so I decide to 3bet to try and slow this guy down when he is stealing. Would it be better to flat and hope to hit a set or 3bet and win pot pre?

Flop, I don't think that hits villain's range at all. My range looks much stronger than villain's and I would bet all sets/ overpairs on this board so I decide to go ahead and cbet. Good/bad?

Turn, seems like the perfect card. When I reviewed the hand, I hate my turn sizing. I don't know why I continued with 1/2 PSB, I think a bet of around $3.90-4.20 is much better here?

River kills my hand. If villain was calling me down with Asx he caught a straight, any Ax type hand has got there as well if he had something like A9. That was my primary concern, should I have lead out with a sort of blocker bet around $3.50-4.00 planning to b/f or is it just better to c/f here?

Thoughts?

[The Bean Counter]

I think you played the hand well.

I like the 3bet pre against this guy, as 44 plays like a sack of shit oop vs a villain that looks like he may be competent (i.e. he won't pay off our sets sufficiently). We can also start to build a dynamic where villain starts to 4bet bluff us and we can 5bet jam over with a wide value range. If I'm nit-picking though, I'd size the 3bet at $1.15, which will get the job done against somebody that folds this much to 3bets and makes our bluffs cheaper if we are going to relentlessly 3bet villain.

Cbet flop is fine as long as we are prepared to barrel safe turn cards. I think sizing is ok despite the mono board too, as we save ourselves a few bb when villain raises and we have to fold.

Turn definitely needs to be bigger though, as we make the sizing for jamming a non-spade, non-5 river awkward.

As played, I think c/f river is fine.

[Savy]

Don't 3bet with 44, 33% opening on the button if anything is tight so attempting to slow him down isn't a valid reason, nor is 44 the hand to do it with. I personally just fold pre. His fold to 3bet seems quite high (btn vs sb is different though a lot of the time) so it may be ok, but there are hands which block his continuing range and hands which fare much better vs his continuing range if he calls too much and doesn't 4bet.

You seem to have some pretty big sizing tells when cbetting too, from reading other threads of yours.

I think you'd have to stove it, but I'm not so sure this isn't a call on the river. I don't really think hands like A9 are really in his range and I think he has a lot of overpairs in there. I think he very few sets as he would raise on a flop this scary, some flush draws (mostly Asx) and mostly overpairs.

[Carroters]

Okay so this is fairly shitty hand to pick for 3-bet bluffing with. It flops like shit if we ever get called. You could argue that because villain's so tight vs 3-bets that when he does call our implied odds are really good, but meh we've made a shit stack to pot ratio for realising implied odds and we're oop and they aren't really super great because he probably 4-bets QQ+ AK.

So what you wanna do here is have a polarised 3-betting range vs this guy until he adjusts. If he's gonna fold 86% of hands to 3-bets we should even consider just 3 bet bluffing shitloads and flatting stuff like AA until he adjusts. (Exploitable Goodness) I mean there's no doubt your 3-bet is +EV with 44, but it's probably less +EV than loads of other hands you can bluff with here like KTo J9s A5s etc. So as far as your whole range goes you might want to select better equity flopping hands than 44 to use as your bluffs. You don't want to use 44 as well as these hands unless villain is just incapable of adjusting as then we'd be 3-betting way too much presumably.

I'd c-bet flop solely to target his overcards that have no spade. A half pot c-bet should work enough of the time and we can sometimes get called by AsQx etc and win at SD. I'd plan to give up most turns and not barrel into a strong range that calls this mono flop. Your turn sizing is too small when you're this deep imo.

I'd c/f river seems pretty standard.

[Carroters]

Okay so this is fairly shitty hand to pick for 3-bet bluffing. It flops like shit if we ever get called. You could argue that because villain's so tight vs 3-bets that when he does call our implied odds are really good, but meh we've made a shit stack to pot ratio for realising implied odds and we're oop and they aren't really super great because he probably 4-bets QQ+ AK.

So what you wanna do here is have a polarised 3-betting range vs this guy until he adjusts. If he's gonna fold 86% of hands to 3-bets we should even consider just 3 bet bluffing shitloads and flatting stuff like AA until he adjusts. (Exploitable Goodness) I mean there's no doubt your 3-bet is +EV with 44, but it's probably less +EV than loads of other hands you can bluff with here like KTo J9s A5s etc. So as far as your whole range goes you might want to select better equity flopping hands than 44 to use as your bluffs. You don't want to use 44 as well as these hands unless villain is just incapable of adjusting as then we'd be 3-betting way too much presumably.

I'd c-bet flop solely to target his overcards that have no spade. A half pot c-bet should work enough of the time and we can sometimes get called by AsQx etc and win at SD. I'd plan to give up most turns and not barrel into a strong range that calls this mono flop. Your turn sizing is too small when you're this deep imo.

I'd c/f river seems pretty standard.

[Carroters]

I think you'd have to stove it, but I'm not so sure this isn't a call on the river. I don't really think hands like A9 are really in his range and I think he has a lot of overpairs in there. I think he very few sets as he would raise on a flop this scary, some flush draws (mostly Asx) and mostly overpairs.

I have no idea why you think a 10NL nit reg turns overpairs into bluffs on this river.

[Carroters]

I think you'd have to stove it, but I'm not so sure this isn't a call on the river. I don't really think hands like A9 are really in his range and I think he has a lot of overpairs in there. I think he very few sets as he would raise on a flop this scary, some flush draws (mostly Asx) and mostly overpairs.

I have no idea why you think a 10NL nit reg turns overpairs into bluffs on this river.

[Savy]

I have no idea why you think a 10NL nit reg turns overpairs into bluffs on this river.

I don't necessarily think he'd be doing it to bluff. Overvaluing hands like TT, JJ on boards like this is what a lot of people do.

I'm probably horribly wrong on it being anywhere near a call and I'd fold here myself, but I do think he has hands like that in his range.

[Carroters]

I doubt he ever has hands like that in his range. ANyone who plays a TAG game at 10NL realises that their relative hand strength is terrible on this river with JJ etc. Almost all of his range here is AsX IMO.

[TNreg]

I doubt he ever has hands like that in his range. ANyone who plays a TAG game at 10NL realises that their relative hand strength is terrible on this river with JJ etc. Almost all of his range here is AsX IMO.

This I totally agree with this and consequently c/f is like the only option... unless he bets something retarded on river like 50c. I'd bet close to $5 OTT fwiw.

[The Bean Counter]

I'd c-bet flop solely to target his overcards that have no spade. A half pot c-bet should work enough of the time and we can sometimes get called by AsQx etc and win at SD. I'd plan to give up most turns and not barrel into a strong range that calls this mono flop. Your turn sizing is too small when you're this deep imo

Don't quite get the bolded section carrot man. If we assume villain is overs with a spade (and most probably As) and TT-QQ sometimes, surely we are missing out on a ton of value by not betting all non-spade, non-ace turns (which is more than half the deck)? I'd be barrelling all of my range on safe turns and probably jamming most rivers too against this guy.

[surviva316]

I wouldn't tend to 3b here 170bb's deep based on only a 116 hand sample. If we play 700+ hands against this guy and his F23b is still that high, then sure make a bunch of vacuum value plays. Not only is it not a terribly large sample for a stat that requires a large sample to be reliable, but also we likely haven't played against him 170bb's deep and won't know how this will adjust his play.

For any reason than just sheer FE, though, 3b'ing 44 OOP 170bbs deep is just terrible. Completely different story 100bbs deep.

[Icanhastreebet]

I would just c/f the flop. Flop is pretty horrible he will continue with almost his entire range except like non spade high cards.

[daven]

i'd just dump it pre, check fold on that flop

[Carroters]

Don't quite get the bolded section carrot man. If we assume villain is overs with a spade (and most probably As) and TT-QQ sometimes, surely we are missing out on a ton of value by not betting all non-spade, non-ace turns (which is more than half the deck)? I'd be barrelling all of my range on safe turns and probably jamming most rivers too against this guy.

I think he has loads of overpair combos that cursh us on the turn after he calls flop and the combos of overs + FD have lots of equity vs our hand anyway so no I defo don't think we're missing any value by shutting down blank turns, our hand is not doing well vs his calling range. Jamming rivers on blank run outs after he calls turn is probably utter spew, why do you want to do this?

Re flop: Also don't mind half potting or less on the vs the half of his overs that have no spade. Our equity is okay vs his pairs on spade turns and we can probably c/f our way to showdown with the best hand on these. On non spade turns we can sometimes do the same vs bricked spade overs so I don't think a small one and done can be bad here.

[The Bean Counter]

I think he has loads of overpair combos that cursh us on the turn after he calls flop and the combos of overs + FD have lots of equity vs our hand anyway so no I defo don't think we're missing any value by shutting down blank turns, our hand is not doing well vs his calling range. Jamming rivers on blank run outs after he calls turn is probably utter spew, why do you want to do this?

You're probably right on the spew thing, but I'm trying to think through different lines lately that make villain commit more money to the pot before relinquishing that additional money by the river more often than not.

My thinking is that by taking a bet/bet/jam line for 170bb on a dry run out with pretty much our entire pre-flop 3betting range, villain will find it incredibly difficult to continue with nearly his entire range here (since he didn't 4bet pre and flats flop and turn and we look like QQ+). If we bet turn heavy and then expect villain to relinquish that additional bet on the majority of rivers, that's got to be a good thing right?

[Carroters]

You're probably right on the spew thing, but I'm trying to think through different lines lately that make villain commit more money to the pot before relinquishing that additional money by the river more often than not.

My thinking is that by taking a bet/bet/jam line for 170bb on a dry run out with pretty much our entire pre-flop 3betting range, villain will find it incredibly difficult to continue with nearly his entire range here (since he didn't 4bet pre and flats flop and turn and we look like QQ+). If we bet turn heavy and then expect villain to relinquish that additional bet on the majority of rivers, that's got to be a good thing right?

Sure it is as long as you think your opponent is likely to fold 99-QQ stuff here. Bear in mind though that his range also contains some flushes aswell as the occasional KK/AA. My problem with your suggested line is that while it's true that your range contains more nutted hands than his does, it's not to say that your perceived range vs this guy is strong enough for him to fold. At 10NL regs don't need too much reason to snap off an overpair on a blank run out in a 3-bet pot and the most likely hand a not so great range constructor is going to put you on is AsX. I could be out of touch with the average reg at these games, but those would be my assumptions.

[rpm]

i'd fold pre and flop. though i think neither is awful, and may both be +EV, this is just a shitty hand for it.