3 Hands

[surviva316]

Hand 3- I really don't think we have fold equity on this particular turn. Once he checks I think he has very little air. We need to either bet twice or take the free card imo.

There are a ton of hands he could be c/f'ing this turn with. Certainly any pair lower than a T for starters.

If all lines have similar eVs, I would defer to any line where we bet the turn because betting a hand like this reduces our b/f %age here.

[Stacks]

There are a ton of hands he could be c/f'ing this turn with. Certainly any pair lower than a T for starters.

If all lines have similar eVs, I would defer to any line where we bet the turn because betting a hand like this reduces our b/f %age here.

Is it really necessary to bet turn to get folds from pairs less than Tx, when if we check back turn, and he checks river, we can probably get those hands to fold anyways? Also considering we improve to beat those hands nearly half the time, some of the time that we improve he can bluff into us.

[surviva316]

Is it really necessary to bet turn to get folds from pairs less than Tx, when if we check back turn, and he checks river, we can probably get those hands to fold anyways?

We can wait for the river to bluff, but we'll have less equity and rep less hands. It also doesn't build a pot to shove when we hit.

Also considering we improve to beat those hands nearly half the time, some of the time that we improve he can bluff into us.

We just established that he has no air, and I wouldn't really expect a pair to turn itself into a bluff simply because a backdoor draw completed.

@Grif: "77 or something" is a lot of his range. You would have to severely discount 22-99/4xs/8x (and they are all somewhat discounted here and there) for it to not make up a sizable portion of his range.

[Renton]

Also are you guys seriously advocating a flop fold with top pair and a backdoor flush draw in position getting 4.5 to 1?

[Stacks]

We can wait for the river to bluff, but we'll have less equity and rep less hands.

We rep fewer strong hands, but wouldn't we also be expected to have less air in our range? I mean, I'd expect most floats, or weak pairs that have little showdown value against villains checking range to bet the turn scare card as a bluff. So to me our checking back range here would be perceived to look a lot like Tx/8x/JJ-KK.

We just established that he has no air, and I wouldn't really expect a pair to turn itself into a bluff simply because a backdoor draw completed.

How much showdown value does 4x/8x/22-99 have on the river versus the hands we check back? Since we probably bet turn with the majority of our air and turn some of our weaker pairs into bluffs. With 4x/8x on the river in villain's shoes after turn goes check/check, I'd feel like I don't win at showdown all that often at all. And would want to turn those hands into bluffs, but not sure if we would get folds often enough. Is this just poor thinking here?

@Grif: "77 or something" is a lot of his range. You would have to severely discount 22-99/4xs/8x (and they are all somewhat discounted here and there) for it to not make up a sizable portion of his range.

I'd Tx/JJ-KK is a sizable portion of his range on the turn.