So all draws brick vs a random fish and we aren't good here 26% of the time? I mean yeah he's passive but does he really have two pair + 3 times as often as he has a random Ax, missed spade draw, random spazz with Qx etc etc? I doubt it.
If he checks the river I think it's a really easy value bet btw.
I don't use AF at all really, so could be wrong here, but if this is a meaningful sample, is 1 not kinda average for some who plays 58% of hands? I'd imagine an AF of 2 would be hella aggro for such a ridiculous wide range.