AT - TPWK - All draws miss and loose-passive leads.

[griffey24]

I really don't see what a 58/0 donks the river with that we beat.

He is playing 58/0. I'm giving them enough credit to do something nonsensical 28% of the time, which is about all we need. I've seen people show up with hands like JTss, Q9ss (who knows why), and other than that a 58/0 will have pretty much every Kxss, Qxss, Jxss, etc etc.

Value hands on river:

A4 - 6
A6 - 6
46 - 9
44/66 - 6
QJss - 1
AJ - 6
AQ - 6
KTss/KThh - 2

42 combos

So he needs about 16 bluffs on the river for us to make a call. He has about 30 bricked FD's I'd imagine. Probably another 10 combos of random 4x/6x/mid pairs that might bluff the river. Probably another 20 combos of 57/78/35 type stuff. So total possible bluffs about 60.

If he bluffs a bit over a quarter of the time with his possible bluffs on the river, we should call.

This is worst case scenario. If he ever raises flop with two pairs or sets then that narrows his value call down/donk river range quite a bit.

[daven]

He is playing 58/0. I'm giving them enough credit to do something nonsensical 28% of the time, which is about all we need.

^ agree entirely with this
river is a call
losing at showdown over half the time is irrelevant when you are facing $2 into $3.45