Fish shoves river, not much that beats us seems possible

[BorisTheSpider]

Villain is completely unknown, but the action in the hand strongly suggests a fish.

On review, it seems like I should have raised the flop donk, but if I had I actually think there's every chance he'd have folded his worse jacks and middle pairs, since I see a lot of "donking for information" which I think this was. With that in mind, although we maybe miss the chance to build a pot, I don't hate the call.

OTT, although villain (if he's even thinking that much) might now believe it less likely we have a jack, I think the same applies - a raise seems likely to scare off his 2nd best hands.

The river seems like a raise-fold, but I can't see how he gets to the river with J7 (at least not often enough to worry about it), and I can't see how he does this classic small-bet "donking for information" on the other streets if he flops 2-pair and fills up on the turn - the same applies to AJ.

So I want to call the river, because I just think it's so unlikely that we're beat, and he can shove random jack-rag here feeling like he's slowplayed a monster.

On the flip side, someone this passive doesn't shove without a big hand, or at least something that _they_ think is a big hand.


Hero (Button) ($30.93)
SB ($7.33)
BB ($21.55)
UTG ($33.93)
MP ($13.42)
CO ($52.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, J
3 folds, Hero bets $0.62, 1 fold, BB calls $0.37

Flop: ($1.34) 8, J, 3 (2 players)
BB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($2.34) J (2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero calls $1

River: ($4.34) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $3.25, Hero raises to $6.50, BB raises to $19.43 (All-In)

Hero???

[Savy]

call?

Raise turn though imo.

[Cobra_1878]

Hmm, looks like T9 to me. Obv not all of villain's range, just the hand that seems the most plausible.

Donking small as sort of blocker bets to try and draw as cheap as possible followed by a much better sized bet on the river suggests he has hit his straight. He has no reason to think you're strong so probably has the best hand here a lot of the time.

I am raising on the turn for value, as well as to charge any draws villain might have.

[kickass]

raise turn seems reasonable or flop even
fold now
i hate it given positions but yr never in front with this action unless villain is batshit

[abelardx]

When you raise the river, for that to be better than calling, he has to call with worse more than half the time. That's reasonable if he is a fish who won't fold any J, but I don't see any reason to think he is a fish. After all, he did bet every street. The 'odd' bet-sizing, small/small/normal, looks very suspicious. By the river I'd just call. When he 3bet/shoves the river that is never a worse hand. He bet small to keep you in the whole way and only jammed when you showed interest. The river should be an almost automatic fold.

[MadMojoMonkey]

When you raise the river, for that to be better than calling, he has to call with worse more than half the time.

This is simply not true.

If Villain will only call a raise with nut hands that comprise a small portion of his range, then bluffing is clearly going to increase the equity on a bunch of Hero's hands that would lose if they called.

[BorisTheSpider]

I don't see any reason to think he is a fish.

I disagree - he is sitting short (although that could be a shortstacker who has won a big pot), calls OOP then donks a bone dry board for less than half-pot. Without further information, I'm always going to assume a fish initially given these factors. I might be wrong sometimes, but I think it's going to be rare.

Now if that isn't how it seems to you, I can see just calling the river, but against someone who's shown pretty strong fish tendencies as I see it, I'm definitely raising for value on the river - I am certainly not bluffing, as I cannot see what better I can hope to fold out.

[abelardx]

It's true if better never folds which is probably the case here.

[Savy]

I think it's worth noting that your raise size is really bad and the type of thing that does induce spazz shoves. I also don't think it's an unfair assumption for me to make either that you raised so small because you were scared of being beat, which is quite bad.

[BorisTheSpider]

I also don't think it's an unfair assumption for me to make either that you raised so small because you were scared of being beat, which is quite bad.

I raised small because I thought I could get a small raise called by his worse jacks and maybe even his slowplayed overpairs. If I'd raised bigger, I think even against a fish I'm just isolating myself with better hands and folding out the ones that I beat.

[Savy]

I raised small because I thought I could get a small raise called by his worse jacks and maybe even his slowplayed overpairs. If I'd raised bigger, I think even against a fish I'm just isolating myself with better hands and folding out the ones that I beat.

No, it just looks silly and makes people do silly things as a result. We don't want people doing silly things in this spot, it makes our life difficult. We either raise for value (bigger) or we call.

[daven]

raise turn, river fold i guess but meh. Stove vs all hands J9 or better cos that's about what you're up against.

[bikes]

fold river to shove

[acg123]

fold he has T9. atleast imo that's what I see most here when you get the donk lead that's like 1/3,1/3,2/3 when a draw shows up. its usually never a made hand OTF.

[Carroters]

Raise flop, raise turn, fold river as played. on a side note: villain is definitely a fish.

[BorisTheSpider]

Raise flop, raise turn, fold river as played. on a side note: villain is definitely a fish.

Thanks - you don't think he's capable of folding jack-rag (at least not often enough) to raises to make it bad to raise?

[griffey24]

I don't hate the river raise, but his sizing is pretty scary to me. Small donk on flop, and then turn and then whamm strong on river feels boatish to me. If he would have bet like $2.25-50ish I would feel more comfortable raising the river here.

If you're capable of raise/folding to a shove, then I still don't mind the raise. Unfortunately I feel like we often raise/call and lose in this spot out of stubbornness, which probably eats into the EV of the raise in the first place.

[BorisTheSpider]

I don't hate the river raise, but his sizing is pretty scary to me. Small donk on flop, and then turn and then whamm strong on river feels boatish to me. If he would have bet like $2.25-50ish I would feel more comfortable raising the river here.

If you're capable of raise/folding to a shove, then I still don't mind the raise. Unfortunately I feel like we often raise/call and lose in this spot out of stubbornness, which probably eats into the EV of the raise in the first place.

Excellent analysis. I think the big bet on the river should have been a warning sign, but I didn't heed it. Like you said, I still don't mind the raise provided I'm not dumb enough to call it off when he shoves, which I was.

The second part of what you said about raise/folding also rings very true - I feel really bad that I raise/called here. I mean, he showed up with J7o, which given my read of him as a fish and the fact that the action up until the river was inconsistent with any strong holding was not really a surprise to me, but it just seemed such a small part of his range that I couldn't bring myself to fold even though I strongly suspected as I clicked the call button that I was about to get shown J7.

I feel like I got fancy play syndrome here, and was too sure that I had it right about him having a weak hand on the flop and turn, well I was right but you can't ignore it when someone who is passive suddenly wakes up and I'd feel about 100x better about my river raise if I'd not been too stubborn to fold when he shoved.