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Extracting the monies
Villain has stats that could indicate an agressive fish / maniac, or possibly a TAGish player who we don't yet have a big enough sample on for things to have converged. 41/29/7.4. Given the non-outrageous 3-bet percentage, I am guessing more like an at least semi-sane LAG.
The open limper is a fish, and when villain raises to 4bb I smell an isolation and squeeze, since my hand is poor enough that I don't really think I can play it profitably OOP even if the fish comes along, so I figure I might as well take it down now, or see what the flop brings and mostly give up if I'm called by the LAG rather than the fish.
The flop seems worth a stab though, so I do, and when we we spike on the turn and I check, expecting villain to bet big (because of my, perhaps premature, assumption that he's very loose and aggressive), so when he bets smallish muggins here goes and shoves and folds him out. I figured it could look like a maniac bluff on my part anyway, and the flop was quite favourable in that I reckoned he could have plenty of hands that could call it off if he perceived an aggro dynamic. I was wrong (at least on this occasion).
In that sense, I've kind of answered my own question, but given that we're OOP, if he is sane and we have him beat, he's just as likely going to check behind the river anyway, so does everyone hate my shove as much as I do, or does anyone think it was the right play?
Button ($31.57)
Hero (SB) ($29.95)
BB ($27.44)
UTG ($9.52)
MP ($12.69)
CO ($25.60)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Q , 8
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, CO bets $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, CO calls $1.25
Flop: ($5) 5 , 7 , 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50
Turn: ($10) K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $4.90
Hero shoves like a numbnut and villain folds.
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