4bet bluff - cbet ugly looking flop?

[BorisTheSpider]

Villain is 18/18, hasn't 3bet before this hand. Only got 23 hands on him.

Savy and I were talking in http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...tn-195721.html about having a well defined 4bet bluffing range, so I'm 4bet bluffing with an appropriate frequency (about 25% of 4bets) rather than just assuming I can guess at an appropriate frequency, so that is why I 4bet here - A4s is one of the hands I settled on as a 4bet bluffing hand.

The flop doesn't look great, and in a single raised pot even heads up I wouldn't cbet it with air OOP, but in a 4bet pot I think my bet is sensible. I also like my sizing, so if anyone doesn't I'm interested to hear why.

If we say he'd 5bet and get it in with [AA-KK, AK], then he can conceivably get to the flop with like [AQ, AJs, QQ, JJ] of which 43% is top pair or better. He has no draws.

With the range I consider my best-guess, he gets to the flop with [AK, QQ, JJ] and has air 64% of the time.

If he flats AA/KK for deception (but 5bets AK) so he sees the flop with [AA-JJ, AQ, AJs] then that's the worst case I considered, and then we have like 40% fold equity (assuming he never plays back here with worse than top pair) which makes my bet questionable but probably OK given the backdoor flush draw. I also think that's a very pessimistic range for him.

Talking of pessimistic ranges, if he has TT, then I think he also has AQ/KQs, and then even if we give him AJs as well for being pretty loose to the 4bet, he still bricks the flop over 40% of the time, and over 50% if we don't think he continues on the flop with KQs.


25NL 6max zoom:

BTN: $30.70 (122.8 bb)
SB: $26.09 (104.4 bb)
BB: $36.31 (145.2 bb)
UTG: $30.14 (120.6 bb)
Hero (MP): $46.27 (185.1 bb)
CO: $32.27 (129.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A 4
UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1, CO folds, BTN raises to $2.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $4.50, BTN calls $2.25

Flop: ($9.60) 9 8 J (2 players)
Hero bets $7

[jackvance]

4bet a bit bigger, now you are pricing your opponent into calling pre with a whole lot of hands that hit this flop.

Your flop bet is big but it's in line with how you would play an overpair to protect it on this drawy board and it ensures you won't get bluff raised easily. Still if he puts a lot of AK-type stuff in your range you might be in trouble on this flop.

[griffey24]

I really don't think there is an overwhelming need to be 4b bluffing unknowns. Sure, once you have reads that he's 3betting 8% and 13% on the BTN or something, I don't hate it. But to claim villain is an unknown and hasn't even 3b yet, I don't think it's necessary.

As played, I wouldn't bet this flop. The only "air" I can mostly see people having here is AQ/KQ and even those hands aren't likely folding with overs and a gutshot. If for some reason he flatted AK pre, then maybe you get a fold from that.

[BorisTheSpider]

I really don't think there is an overwhelming need to be 4b bluffing unknowns. Sure, once you have reads that he's 3betting 8% and 13% on the BTN or something, I don't hate it. But to claim villain is an unknown and hasn't even 3b yet, I don't think it's necessary.

Point taken, I guess with reads I like it more, readless I'm probably giving him nowhere near enough credit.

As played, I wouldn't bet this flop. The only "air" I can mostly see people having here is AQ/KQ and even those hands aren't likely folding with overs and a gutshot. If for some reason he flatted AK pre, then maybe you get a fold from that.

OK, so I'm going to have to look at this hand again. I don't think he's calling overs with a gutter here, but maybe I should think again.

[griffey24]

I haven't played 25nl in al ong time, but if I'm readless, then my default is to assume that villain is an "avg player" until proven otherwise. So what is an avg 25nl player's 3b on the button?

[BorisTheSpider]

I haven't played 25nl in al ong time, but if I'm readless, then my default is to assume that villain is an "avg player" until proven otherwise. So what is an avg 25nl player's 3b on the button?

Well I think an average players 3bet at 25NL overall is going to be like 4%, and a little wider on the button, but I don't think they are bluffing much at all.

I'm going to say [AA-TT, AQo+, AQs+, KQs] of which I think they are folding a bit less than half of to a 4bet, and I'm risking $4.50 to win $3.50 which I don't have the fold equity to do.

It didn't occur to me when I first posted the hand, but one factor inclining me to 4bet bluff may have been that I gave him too much credit for exploiting my iso-raise. I don't think that's necessarily something I should be giving anyone credit for, without a specific read.

[Savy]

People really only 3bet 4% at 25nl zoom? I find that quite hard to believe.

[BorisTheSpider]

People really only 3bet 4% at 25nl zoom? I find that quite hard to believe.

Well yeah, I should actually have looked at my DB before posting that. It's quite a small sample, but I do have 40,000 hands of zoom now, and average 3bet for players I have at least 100 hands on is 7%, so it looks like I mis-estimated off the top of my head.

I don't actually see a way in HEM to filter this to 3bets IP, but I think your point that my off-the-top-of-my-head estimate was too tight still stands.

Still, your point seems to be at odds with what Griffey says about "I really don't think there is an overwhelming need to be 4b bluffing unknowns. Sure, once you have reads that he's 3betting 8% and 13% on the BTN or something, I don't hate it. But to claim villain is an unknown and hasn't even 3b yet, I don't think it's necessary"

If my database is right and an unknown has about a 7% 3bet which we'll assume will often be a little wider on the button, then there is an argument for 4bet bluffing unknowns.

Wheras I think more likely, it's spew, and if in doubt I should probably be giving unknowns who 3bet more credit for a legit hand.

[griffey24]

If there was a way to filter by position, I wouldn't be surprised if the combined "avg 3b" of most players is like 8-9% in the blinds, and then only 5-7% on the button, which will give you an overall average 3b of about 7%.

5-7% isn't too out of line at all.