25NL - QQ overpair on very wet board in 3bet pot.

[abelardx]

I like it. I don't think his range has to be that strong at all since he could be thinking you're weaker because you're isolating MP. There's too many scare cards and it's too easy to get bluffed so calling to showdown would just suck. If he is ever restealing then the shove has to be good. He will fold sometimes and he will call with flipping draws or worse and even worse made hands sometimes. There's only twelve combos of KK and AA, and I think he could have AJ+ and 99+ and even some suited stuff, only a quarter of which gives him a flush draw much less a combo draw. So I like it. And these days I think it is fair to assume that a new guy 3betting is a tag, has seen some videos, and has some light stuff in his range. That's true even at 5NL these days.

[BorisTheSpider]

I like it. I don't think his range has to be that strong at all since he could be thinking you're weaker because you're isolating MP.

First, I think assuming that his range is weak because he cold 4bet is a big assumption. I honestly think you're giving him waaaaay too much credit.

Second, if you think BB has a weak range, why would we shove the flop?

he could have AJ+ and 99+ and even some suited stuff

AJdd is ahead, and obviously AdKd too. TT might call, JJ probably doesn't unless he's suicidal.

What worse can he call the flop shove with really? If he can't call with worse, we're bluffing, and I can't see what better folds.

[abelardx]

First, I think assuming that his range is weak because he cold 4bet is a big assumption. I honestly think you're giving him waaaaay too much credit.

Second, if you think BB has a weak range, why would we shove the flop?



AJdd is ahead, and obviously AdKd too. TT might call, JJ probably doesn't unless he's suicidal.

What worse can he call the flop shove with really? If he can't call with worse, we're bluffing, and I can't see what better folds.

Well, my thinking is that this is not a typical 3bet/4bet spot, but more like a resteal 3bet. IF that is the case, he can't credit us with a strong range, esp if we've been isolating a lot, and I think he would continue in the huge pot with any pair and any draw. I could be totally wrong but that's how I'm reading it.

If BB's range is weak, we can't just play out the hand because he can easily bluff us on this scary board. If nobody made a big hand (likely), then whoever shoves first wins.

[abelardx]

His preflop range could be as wide as like:
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 35.31% 34.54% 0.76% { 99+, ATs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo+ }
MP3 64.69% 63.93% 0.76% { QdQc }

If he cbets everything, folds all no-pair/no-draw hands to the shove, and calls with everything else (because he is getting 2:1), then:

1. the above generous range is 112 combos
2. he folds half his hands: off suit big aces, and non-diamond suited stuff that didn't make a pair. It's nice that you have the Qd.
3. against what's left, you are a 2:1 dog:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 8d7d9h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 64.29% 62.39% 1.91% { 99+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AdKd, AdJd, QdJd, AdTd }
MP3 35.71% 33.80% 1.91% { QdQc }

So EV(shove) = .5 * 15 + .5 * (.35 * 40 - .65 * 25) = 7.5 (he folds) + 7 (he calls and loses) - 8 (he calls and wins) = 6.5 pretty nice.

And I think it's even better for you if his range is not so wide but still not just '4betting superhands'.

[griffey24]

His preflop range could be as wide as like:
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 35.31% 34.54% 0.76% { 99+, ATs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo+ }
MP3 64.69% 63.93% 0.76% { QdQc }

If he cbets everything, folds all no-pair/no-draw hands to the shove, and calls with everything else (because he is getting 2:1), then:

1. the above generous range is 112 combos
2. he folds half his hands: off suit big aces, and non-diamond suited stuff that didn't make a pair. It's nice that you have the Qd.
3. against what's left, you are a 2:1 dog:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 8d7d9h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 64.29% 62.39% 1.91% { 99+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AdKd, AdJd, QdJd, AdTd }
MP3 35.71% 33.80% 1.91% { QdQc }

So EV(shove) = .5 * 15 + .5 * (.35 * 40 - .65 * 25) = 7.5 (he folds) + 7 (he calls and loses) - 8 (he calls and wins) = 6.5 pretty nice.

And I think it's even better for you if his range is not so wide but still not just '4betting superhands'.

I think your cold-4b range is waaay too loose. If anything like this is a reasonable range we should be jamming QQ preflop along with so many other hands, since he'll just be 4b/folding so much.

[abelardx]

Suppose villain has only AK and KK+, and he folds everything but KK+ and AKdd to the shove.

Then he folds 15/28 = 54% and calls 46% when we are about a 5:1 dog:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 8d7d9h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 83.75% 82.28% 1.47% { KK+, AdKd }
MP3 16.25% 14.79% 1.47% { QdQc }

So our EV, when villain is 'honest', is:

.54 * 15 + .46 * (.15 * 40 - .85 * 25) = about -5 dollars, making the shove bad.

So I guess it depends on our take on villain. If he resteals, shove is good. If not, then not.

If you give him credit for a truly tight range, then we should fold preflop. And that could be best since he's an unknown.

However, it kinda looks like a resteal, in which case, there's no way we can just fold an overpair on the flop. And if we are continuing then I like the shove.