Sudden river donk-jam, always a fold?

[Savy]

It's almost as if knowing our range in this spot is really really helpful, but I couldn't imagine that's possible. Too GTO for 25NL.

[Carroters]

It's almost as if knowing our range in this spot is really really helpful, but I couldn't imagine that's possible. Too GTO for 25NL.

Nah it's not that big a deal to know our range here. Just fold everything that's not a queen and you're playing perfectly vs this.

[MadMojoMonkey]

@Savy: Please give me your definition of balance. Obv., I'm not talking about anything other than poker. I just want to know exactly what you mean by balance. I am quite certain we are thinking of the different things when using that word.

Because, it seems to me, that if you try to do anything other than an alpha-value based decision when facing all-in shoves, then you're throwing away monies every time, with no long-term benefit to calling otherwise.

If your hand (meaning any single hand in your range) will win against at least alpha of Villain's range, then it's a +EV call. If you fold a hand with at least that much equity, or call with a hand with less, then it's a worse play. This scenario is perfectly straightforward, and Hero's range is irrelevant, because only his hand and Villain's range matter now.

[BorisTheSpider]

If your hand (meaning any single hand in your range) will win against at least alpha of Villain's range, then it's a +EV call. If you fold a hand with at least that much equity, or call with a hand with less, then it's a worse play.

This is the trouble with this hand - I'm not sure what to call an "average" range for doing this, given that he's an unknown. Against a fish, it's an arguable call getting 2.5:1, against a tighter player he's never doing it without Qx. I dunno, I guess Carroters is right - I couldn't find a fold at the time (because of what MMM said about fish and flopped sets, plus just spazz from a possible maniac), but I think it definitely should be a fold against an unknown.

[BorisTheSpider]

OK so if he calls the 3bet preflop with [QQ-22, AQs+, AKo, KQs, KQo] (is this way too loose for an unknown???) then flop c/c range is overpairs, diamond draws, OESDs, sets and AKo with Ad:

[QQ, JJ, TT, 44, AhKh, AdKd, AsKs, AdQd, AhKd, AhKs, AcKh, AcKd, AcKs, AdKh, AdKc, AdKs, AsKh, AsKd, KQs, KQo]

Turn is tough to assign a c/c range, because it varies so much with player type - a fish might continue to slowplay a set, but even a fish is likely raising turn so I'm going to weight it and give him half the sets to c/c turn with, and also say he'll slowplay half the made straights.

Turn c/c [QQ, JhJc, JhJd, TsTh, 4h4c, 4s4h, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, KdQh, KdQs]

So if he then jams all the sets he did slowplay and all the straights:

[QQ, JhJc, JhJd, TsTh, 4h4c, 4s4h, AdQd, KdQd, KdQh, KdQs]

We're ahead of:

[JJ,TT,44] (exactly one third of his range)

and we're being value towned by

[QQ, AdQd, KdQd, KdQh, KdQs] (exactly 2/3 of his range)

So even getting 2.5:1 and needing 28% equity, it's really thin, and I think it's not difficult to find a fold.