Calculating the EV of shoving

[MadMojoMonkey]

Hehe... I keep trying to find out why I'm right and you're wrong, but to no avail. Good catch.
Boris? You got me started and I never really scrutinized this bit. Am I blind?

Size of pot before hero shove is $1.30 (0.25 BU raise, 0.05 SB, 1.00 BB 3bet)
Villain has to call $9 if I shove.

Hero is BU, I guess.

F*P + (1-F)[E*(P+S) - (1-E)*S]

This part:
E*(P+S) - (1-E)*S
is the conditional EV of when Villain calls.
The P+S is the amount Hero profits when he wins the hand.
The S should be the amount Hero loses when the loses the hand.
As such, you are correct in noting that bit went uncounted.

Yes. it seems we've been a bit liberal with the value of S.

I'm going to go ahead and say this is correct:

0.87*1.30 + (1-0.87)[0.42*(1.30+9.00) - (1-0.42)*(9.00+0.75)]

and hang my head in shame.
Sorry Cobra... there's 1 more set of parentheses.

[boutron]

Whew. I've been going over a bunch of my hands, calculating the EV for various plays. I was thinking I might have to go redo them all!

The math still shows you whether it's a +EV shove. The math does not tell you if it's the most +EV line to take, only the EV of your proposed line (shoving).

I'm glad you included that in your earlier post. I think that is the one piece of info that I am really going to take from this topic. Just because a play has a +EV doesn't mean that it is the best play.

Thanks again for your response. Now, if you can just help me break the habit of calling river bets w TPTK this forum will be perfect!

[Cobra_1878]

Hehe... I keep trying to find out why I'm right and you're wrong, but to no avail. Good catch.
Boris? You got me started and I never really scrutinized this bit. Am I blind?


Hero is BU, I guess.


This part:
E*(P+S) - (1-E)*S
is the conditional EV of when Villain calls.
The P+S is the amount Hero profits when he wins the hand.
The S should be the amount Hero loses when the loses the hand.
As such, you are correct in noting that bit went uncounted.

Yes. it seems we've been a bit liberal with the value of S.

I'm going to go ahead and say this is correct:

and hang my head in shame.
Sorry Cobra... there's 1 more set of parentheses.

Wait, what?

I'm confused now.