QQ 3bet pot Axx flop

[griffey24]

I guess my point is is that I don't believe fish try to push people off top pair, because they don't believe top pair is a hand that folds. If he's bluffing, he's trying to push us off TT-KK, not Ax. I guess I could talk myself into calling here based on that, but I still think he's good more often than not by some margin.

Ofcourse he's trying to push us off TT-KK and not Ax, but it just so happens that after our line, TT-KK is also our most likely holding.

I'd guess even if hero did take this line with AA, I would be surprised if after the turn checked through that he wouldn't bet. So hands that c/c flop, ck ck turn AND check river again are almost exclusively TT-KK and some very few weak Ax that dont' see value in betting the river.

[OngBonga]

I suppose this guy could recognise we have TT-KK more often than Ax and we're folding it to a bet of this size pretty often.

And I guess I haven't stopped to ask - what the fuck makes this bet for value? Why did he bet so much on a lolbrick river after we check turn if he has a hand that wants to get paid?

You're probably right griff. This could well be a bluff more often than I realise.

[OngBonga]

Anyone fancy doing a run through their db to have a look at

turn check / check, river (brick) check / 90%+ psb

And see if it's bluff or value most often?

I don't have a db on this shitty comp.

[BorisTheSpider]

Anyone fancy doing a run through their db to have a look at

turn check / check, river (brick) check / 90%+ psb

And see if it's bluff or value most often?

I don't have a db on this shitty comp.

Well, it's a rare line (at least me calling it so seeing what they had is) - I only found 13 instances of this in my DB, and overall it was rarely a bluff - I lost 35bb/100 calling this, but obviously it's a very small sample.

[The Bean Counter]

Ofcourse he's trying to push us off TT-KK and not Ax, but it just so happens that after our line, TT-KK is also our most likely holding.

I'd guess even if hero did take this line with AA, I would be surprised if after the turn checked through that he wouldn't bet. So hands that c/c flop, ck ck turn AND check river again are almost exclusively TT-KK and some very few weak Ax that dont' see value in betting the river.

This is pretty much why I'd call it off on the river. We're going to see 22 sometimes and maybe some weak aces, but we're so face up that there has to be enough garbage in there to make this a call surely, as long as think villain can hand read to at least some level?