QQ 3bet pot Axx flop

[BorisTheSpider]

Villain is 35/24, has called 5/5 3bets so far. Seems like a spazzy fish.

The flop is so dry, I don't think betting has much value, so I am c/c flop with intention to c/f turn. Does this seem OK?

His river sizing is spazzy, and I want to fold, I have trouble giving him a range for the b-c-b line here, but I think he probably picks up something like 2 pair on the turn, or perhaps a rivered set. I certainly don't think calling the river is going to be profitable - agree?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $50.70 (202.8 bb)
SB: $26.48 (105.9 bb)
Hero (BB): $37.07 (148.3 bb)
UTG: $34.81 (139.2 bb)
MP: $26.15 (104.6 bb)
CO: $30.54 (122.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.75, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, MP calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.10) 9 A 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $2.24, Hero calls $2.24

Turn: ($9.58) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

River: ($9.58) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $8.05

[d0zer]

yah fold

[OngBonga]

I hate these flop spots. I'm torn between betting flop or giving up flop. Giving up makes it easy for him to bluff, and betting doesn't really get us any value because worse shouldn't call. I'd probably half pot bet because I expect him to fold often enough to show a profit based on what's already in, whereas giving up is obv =ev. I have no idea if this logic is stupid. The c/c line is another option, but we're oop and he's likely to bet turn as well if we c/c flop, so I hate calling flop to fold turn.

Obviously folding this river bet.

[BorisTheSpider]

I hate these flop spots. I'm torn between betting flop or giving up flop. Giving up makes it easy for him to bluff, and betting doesn't really get us any value because worse shouldn't call. I'd probably half pot bet because I expect him to fold often enough to show a profit based on what's already in, whereas giving up is obv =ev. I have no idea if this logic is stupid. The c/c line is another option, but we're oop and he's likely to bet turn as well if we c/c flop, so I hate calling flop to fold turn.

I agree that betting might be best if we think he'll try and barrel us off a hand like ours, but on the other hand I don't like betting here unless he is particularly prone to barreling. I much prefer betting say 77 because we protect ourselves from overcards and fold out a lot of better pairs, but QQ doesn't need much protection as only one more overcard could fall, and he can't fold too much better.

Given his propensity to call 3bets, I've assumed he has something like QQ-77,AKs-AJs,KQs-KJs,QJs,AKo-AJo,KQo.

If we bet 12bb into 20.5bb on the flop and he calls with top pair and 50 of the time with his other one pair hands, then we get to check it down, and he folds everything else then the flop bet has an EV of 8.6bb

If we check, and he stabs at the flop 50% of the time with his entire range, then we check it down and when he doesn't stab we just check it down, then our EV for checking the flop is about 9.5bb

I like checking here with a hand as strong as QQ because we beat most of his bluffs and we don't really mind letting him take free cards.

[The Bean Counter]

Villain would have to be pretty bad at hand reading or overly passive not to fire you off QQ in this spot with two barrels.

I tend to cbet my entire 3betting range on an ace high flop, since most villains don't tend to have as many aces in their 3bet calling range as you would think (and especially not this guy). That's no good for getting value of course, but I still think it's the best way to go overall.

[griffey24]

This is just a tough spot all around.

If you take a c/c line with AAA and some other Ax hands (AT-AQ) that can handle heat, then I don't mind c/c with QQ on the flop.

[OngBonga]

If you take a c/c line with AAA and some other Ax hands (AT-AQ) that can handle heat, then I don't mind c/c with QQ on the flop.

I don't think we need to worry about balancing our range vs this guy...

Villain is 35/24, has called 5/5 3bets so far. Seems like a spazzy fish.

I think we can just play our hand here without regard for how we play AAA unless he recently saw us play a similar spot.

[griffey24]

If he's a spazzy fish then I might call here. It's a strange spot for him to bet almost pot on the river after checking back turn. Whenever I call here they show me 222 though

[OngBonga]

Set of deuces was certainly a hand I considered... probably A2 though. I'm not sure what villain can do this with that we beat, so calling just seems like we're hoping to catch a missed draw or something... but does he have any draws on this flop? Why wouldn't he check behind with a middle pair? Why would he bet near pot with a showdown hand that we beat? He either has air or we're beaten. I don't really like trying to catch air on this board vs a spazz.

[griffey24]

One important consideration here is that he's called 5/5 3bets so far, so it's conceivable he's calling all 3bets (ie: his call 3b range = his opening range).

Given hero's line, villain actually gets to the river with his ENTIRE opening range, that means. So the key questions are:
1) Would he check back air, and concede the loss?
2) Would he turn a made hand into a bluff?
3) Would he check an A on the turn and bet it hard on river?

[OngBonga]

1. I think he can bet his air here, it's just the sizing that has me worried this isn't airballing.
2. Any "made" hand that he turns into a bluff is already probably beating us. I don't understand why a hand such as TT would make this bet.
3. This is what gets me, but maybe he'd check back a weak ace, such as A2, as pot control for the times we have Ax.

My problem here is I fold a lot to pot sized river bets like this, so I rarely get to see what it is. Usually when I do get to see what hand it is, it's either nuts, near nuts, or missed draw. I can't imagine this is worse than QQ unless he has 78, or maybe a fishy gutshot, but one gutshot got there on the turn.

[griffey24]

you fold a lot to pot size river bets like this. Presumably with weak Ax or JJ-KK type stuff.

But then in your point number 2 you say "I don't understand why a made hand like TT would make this bet".....

You're answering your own question imo

[OngBonga]

I understand your point if we're playing a competent reg, but we're up against a spazzy fish who is likely to consider that we do not ever fold an ace on this river because he doesn't.

Against a reg I'm more likely to call river as played.

[OngBonga]

I guess my point is is that I don't believe fish try to push people off top pair, because they don't believe top pair is a hand that folds. If he's bluffing, he's trying to push us off TT-KK, not Ax. I guess I could talk myself into calling here based on that, but I still think he's good more often than not by some margin.

[griffey24]

I guess my point is is that I don't believe fish try to push people off top pair, because they don't believe top pair is a hand that folds. If he's bluffing, he's trying to push us off TT-KK, not Ax. I guess I could talk myself into calling here based on that, but I still think he's good more often than not by some margin.

Ofcourse he's trying to push us off TT-KK and not Ax, but it just so happens that after our line, TT-KK is also our most likely holding.

I'd guess even if hero did take this line with AA, I would be surprised if after the turn checked through that he wouldn't bet. So hands that c/c flop, ck ck turn AND check river again are almost exclusively TT-KK and some very few weak Ax that dont' see value in betting the river.

[OngBonga]

Ofcourse he's trying to push us off TT-KK and not Ax, but it just so happens that after our line, TT-KK is also our most likely holding.

Fair point.

[OngBonga]

I suppose this guy could recognise we have TT-KK more often than Ax and we're folding it to a bet of this size pretty often.

And I guess I haven't stopped to ask - what the fuck makes this bet for value? Why did he bet so much on a lolbrick river after we check turn if he has a hand that wants to get paid?

You're probably right griff. This could well be a bluff more often than I realise.

[OngBonga]

Anyone fancy doing a run through their db to have a look at

turn check / check, river (brick) check / 90%+ psb

And see if it's bluff or value most often?

I don't have a db on this shitty comp.

[BorisTheSpider]

This is just a tough spot all around.

If you take a c/c line with AAA and some other Ax hands (AT-AQ) that can handle heat, then I don't mind c/c with QQ on the flop.

I definitely c/c AAA quite often here, AQ-AT too, probably bet AK nearly always. That's kind of incidental though, because I'm not actually trying to balance at these stakes, it's probably a good habit to get into though. I c/c AAA because of blocking so much of his continuing range, and AQ-AT because especially AT/AJ I feel like I'm not often getting 3 streets from worse and that I get some value from some of his air that takes a stab when checked to which would otherwise just fold the flop.

[BorisTheSpider]

Anyone fancy doing a run through their db to have a look at

turn check / check, river (brick) check / 90%+ psb

And see if it's bluff or value most often?

I don't have a db on this shitty comp.

Well, it's a rare line (at least me calling it so seeing what they had is) - I only found 13 instances of this in my DB, and overall it was rarely a bluff - I lost 35bb/100 calling this, but obviously it's a very small sample.

[OngBonga]

Yeah there's not much we can take from that unfortunately. Thanks for having a look though.

[The Bean Counter]

Ofcourse he's trying to push us off TT-KK and not Ax, but it just so happens that after our line, TT-KK is also our most likely holding.

I'd guess even if hero did take this line with AA, I would be surprised if after the turn checked through that he wouldn't bet. So hands that c/c flop, ck ck turn AND check river again are almost exclusively TT-KK and some very few weak Ax that dont' see value in betting the river.

This is pretty much why I'd call it off on the river. We're going to see 22 sometimes and maybe some weak aces, but we're so face up that there has to be enough garbage in there to make this a call surely, as long as think villain can hand read to at least some level?