|
|
LOL for a hand I initially though was kind of uninteresting, this has actually turned out to be a very worthwhile discussion.
 Originally Posted by OngBonga
If I concluded as villain that hero's range is AA, I wouldn't fold because quite frankly it's ridiculous to give someone a range that is one combo large.
Although I can see what you mean in one sense (and I do sometimes have MUBS and concentrate on small parts of peoples ranges that I don't want to run into), I don't think this is necessarily a valid way to look at it. Sometimes, if someones range literally is one (or very few combos) folding is absolutely OK.
For example, a 10/7 opens UTG, he folds to 80% of 3bets and his 4bet range is 1%. You 3bet him with AA, he flats. Flop is K72r, he checks, you pot it and he jams for another 150bb. You calling?
Same player opens UTG, you 3bet on the button, the BB cold 4bets and the nit UTG jams it in. Happy about your kings now?
So although I think it's rare, sometimes I do think you can fold even when someones range seems ridiculously narrow. I know it's not quite the 1-combo range we were talking about, but it's not far off.
I think it's fair to say that A4 can take hero's line too because it flops the nuts and is only losing to A6 and AQ by river
Yeah, I agree up to a point. I think A4 can play exactly like this right up until the river jam. I think I'd just flat his river raise normally with A4, unless I was very confident he could overplay a bare ace or smaller boat. Maybe that's a mistake, but I think I'd often just call the river raise there.
Your analysis of why jamming A4 is +EV if he calls with all the boats is interesting. I get a slightly different result, A6s is only possible for villain on this board when we hold A4s if we have Ac4c, then he can have Ad6d, otherwise if we have Ad4d, Ac6c is blocked by the 6 on the board being the 6c. In this situation, I have QQ being 43% of his range, so we lose to 57%, and that assumes he always raises the river and calls a jam with queens full.
Holding A6 is the opposite, we win 57% if he calls a jam with all the aces full combos and QQ.
I agree that it's somewhat unlikely for A6 to check back the flop, but I certainly feel like I can check the flop back here at least somewhat often with A6 - the board, other than the heart draw, is dry. I'm not as worried about the heart draw as I am about building a big pot with a dominated ace here, and if I get called by worse I'm almost never getting 3 streets anyway, so I probably quite often check back the flop for pot control and deception. If the flush turns or rivers and I'm unimproved, I'll deal with that when I come to it - for now, I'm more concerned that betting the flop is way too thin and if called I'm out of position for the rest of the hand with a low(er) SPR, very deep stacks, a flush draw out there and a hand that's too good to c/f and too bad to be happy about shovelling in money with.
But I can easily make this call too because it takes skill and discipline to make this fold, and those two aspects rarely click into place for me.
Having thought this hand through, I actually think I do raise-fold QQ. I originally posted indicating I didn't think he could fold, because I make a lot of bad hero folds myself, so I have to work on that - however this probably isn't a bad spot for one, and in-game I really doubt I call it off with QQ on the river here. I doubt I could ever fold A4 here, but that's very marginal as we've established and doesn't seem to matter much either way.
|
Reply With Quote
