Not So Vanilla Werewolf Diffusion

[OngBonga]

please don't follow ong. I'm starting think he's a wolf

tomorrow well be more sure about that situation

fyp

Or to put it another way, kindly stfu about what you think I will or won't do tonight.

[OngBonga]

Finally he also referenced a game where the two of you were wolves and you acted in a similar manner.

Well I'll reference a game where jack posted just "wow" as wolf. His last wolf game with me and you gator. Check out his 3rd post this game.

Is that evidence? If not, then whatever he wants to chirp about me doing this and that as wolf is equally irrelevant. He can say I did this as wolf, I can probably show him when I did it as villager too. But I can't be bothered, because staying alive is no longer important for me. I'm spent after the night.

[OngBonga]

Ong does have the kind of enthusiasm over him that's only ever consistent with him being a wolf or an important villager so I've rescinded to mull it over some more.

Is this what you're referring to gator? The enthusiasm? Jack saw me be enthusiastic as wolf and thus because I'm entusiastic I'm a wolf?

Meanwhile, JKDS will tell you that I'm passive and sheepy when I'm a wolf.

So what, you believe jack, who is yet to own the shit out of me when I'm a wolf, over JKDS, who owns my soul and keeps it in a box in his bedroom?

I'm always entusiastic, and jack very much knows this. So for him to use it as evidence against me, even reminding people that he was wolf with me recently, it does the opposite of make me think he's a villager.

[gabe]

ok lets kill rong since he is unrelated to this ong drama. angel protect ong but maybe like 10% of the time pick someone else

[OngBonga]

I am definitely playing differently this game. I'm a drama.

[OngBonga]

Jesus 1 in 3 posts is ongbonga. What's gonna happen when you lynch me? Yup, that's right, it's all gonna go quiet, and you'll all be shiiiit, he flipped village, maybe we shoulda left him, where the fuck is everyone etc.

[gabe]

ok lets kill rong since he is unrelated to this ong drama. angel protect ong but maybe like 10% of the time pick someone else

qft

[bigred]

Can't we just lynch ong? He's most likely a wolf and his "lookup" will be misinformation to the highest degree.

[OngBonga]

Can't we just lynch ong? He's most likely a wolf and his "lookup" will be misinformation to the highest degree.

You must realise how incredibly wolfy this post is bigred. You must. You might as well say "Hey guys let's make the optimal wolf moves because lol".

[bigred]

Nope. Wolf would not be as reckless as that but you'd know that.

[OngBonga]

Wow that's some crazy logic. So a wolf would never attempt to misdirect the town into making optimal wolf moves because lol as if a wolf would ever be so blatant? Is that it?

[OngBonga]

I'm so right about these two slimy fuckers.

@wuf - What's prize for MVP?

[gabe]

got a feeling youre going 0/2

to everyone else, its possible to just ignore all that and vote someone else unrelated. we'll be able to judge them all much better tomorrow

[Hoopy]

JV is now tied with jyms on 3, I'm feeling very suspicious of JKDS's quick hop on.

[rong]

please don't follow ong. I'm starting think he's a wolf or he's not actually going to look up jack tonight

tomorrow well be more sure about that situation

This.

[rong]

Ong, gator and jyms all seem wolfy to me.

More to come.

[rong]

In fact you must be a wolf jack, simply because if you were a villager, you wouldn't be wasting your time arguing with me, because you'd know I was going to clear you tomorrow. You're on the defensive. If you were a villager, you'd be pleased with this situation, you'd be encouraging me to look you up.

Wolf.

All day long.

This holds no weight. If he's a wolf and you're a villager then it's true. But if he's a villager then you've put him in a bind as follows:

Jv -v, ong-v. You look him up. We have to lynch you or jv to prove roles.

Jv-w, ong-w. You look him up, say w/e, we lynch one of you to prove roles.

Jv-w, ong-v. You look him up, we have to lynch one of you to prove roles.

Jv-v, ong-w. You say w/e, we have to lynch one of you to prove roles.

Regardless of outcome we have to lynch one of you to prove roles. So by saying you'll look him up, regardless of his role you put him in a tricky spot.

This is actually worse for him than that. I mean we were all over lynching you regardless tomorrow. But I can guarantee what will happen if you are a wolf. Your look up comes back wolf. Regardless of who you look up. Because then we face a spot of if we lynch you it can't prove jv's role. But if we lynch jv it can prove your role (ie it can prove you lied if jv flips villager). So we're always better off lynching jv tomorrow.

Given that whenever we get close to lynching a wolf he always outs as a seer who is very soon to act (outing as angel doesn't make you valuable enough and outing as seer 3 nights away doesn't either) I actually think we should lynch ong.

I'm also always suspicious of anyone who tries to butter me up in any way which ong has repeatedly.

[rong]

Also someone said ong doesn't play this aggro as a wolf. He played exactly like this when he was wolf with jv, gator and Aubrey in the game I modded. It got him seered n1.

[rong]

Really ong is too much in the thick of it to survive imo. He's at best a huge distraction. His outing is consistent with what a wolf would do and, if we bear in mind that there is only a random chance that a player is a n1 seer yet 3 out of 13 players are wolves and would claim it then I think the claim means more likely wolf than honest.

[rong]

And gator, before you ask me to demonstrate why I think you're wolfy, I got nothing for ya. It's day 1, no real evidence exists, especially as you haven't been crazy active. It's just a gut read and I'm not suggesting lynching you at this point.

[rong]

Also, if it wasn't clear from the above, I hate lynching jv over ong today. It's an awful decision.

[gabe]

ok fine rong, you've earned a rescind. I'm back to leaning towards daven. the fact that he's gone hurts the villages chances whether he's a villager or a wolf, so why not kill him if we also think he hasn't necessarily acted like a lock villager

[gabe]

I'm going to read back some and see if I spot anything fishy from people who aren't being debated. hmm

[gabe]

this is so dumb

just reading the first handful of posts in the thread, it seems really likely that jack is a villager and ong is spazzing

they both happily voted for daven early on too rescind and

lynch daven

[gabe]

gator is been playing but not really taking any strong positions. he probably has a decent shot at being a wolf

lets kill daven, ong lookup gator, angel protect ong. the end

[rong]

I don't think jyms has done anything particularly villagery. I prob prefer him to Daven.

Seeing how jv seems viilagery to me and has is the current "not jyms" wagon I'm even more inclined to lynch jyms.

Daven is meh. I won't be surprised if he's a wolf.

[rong]

I still think lynching ong is our most +ev move.

[rong]

Keith, Luco, jyms and bid have hardly even been involved.

[rong]

More on lynching ong, as this is a fake claim game design it's almost a license for the wolves to go wild if they choose. Could explain why someone like ong would be playing like he is as opposed to being a bit more reserved having learnt his lessen from his last wolf outing.

[Luco]

Thoughts:

BID says JV ‘seems legit’ but then bolds him soon after

Jkds is quick to join in with fuck all reasoning

I think we could be on to something with jyms / daven based on this

Rong, ong is simply not optimal tonight given how hard he’s posting + the promise of a lookup tomorrow. patience

Villager lean to gabe + rong for looking in the shadows

Rescind gabe, lynch jyms

I should be back on before deadline, but will be afk form tomorrow afternoon (gmt), off to london then back the next day. Weekends are slow, will catch up then

[GatorJH]

gator is been playing but not really taking any strong positions. he probably has a decent shot at being a wolf

lets kill daven, ong lookup gator, angel protect ong. the end

I actually like this plan. It would be nice to be cleared early in a game for once although it may end with me getting nommed shortly after that.

It seems like when either the jyms or daven wagons start to pick up any steam they get derailed a bit. Let's pick one and go with it.

rescind jyms, lynch daven

[GatorJH]

well crap. I guess I should have read the rest of the page first since I may have derailed the jyms wagon myself a bit.

[Keith]

Keith, Luco, jyms and bid have hardly even been involved.

how is my argument against daven and keeping the pressure on ong to be lynched tomorrow be described as hardly being involved.I hate an ong lynch today as its going to bring information of one sort or another. I don't like gabes suggestion that angel protect ong tonight as there is a fair chance that ong is a wolf or he could be a n1 angel who will protect himself. let the wolves try and figure that out if hes a villager. ong has put himself into some sort of play let him go with it and we kill him tomorrow so we can analyse the evidence that it brings.
I'm sticking with my daven vote.

[jyms]

It's funny. I posted more about my thoughts and looked wolfy, this game I have been reading and not posting much to avoid the same pitfalls of the last few games and I still look wolfy. It's funny how people think I look wolfy all the time no matter what I do or don't do. Pretty easy now for wolves to start saying I look wolfy and can get a village to jump on a wagon.

[bigred]

It's funny. I posted more about my thoughts and looked wolfy, this game I have been reading and not posting much to avoid the same pitfalls of the last few games and I still look wolfy. It's funny how people think I look wolfy all the time no matter what I do or don't do. Pretty easy now for wolves to start saying I look wolfy and can get a village to jump on a wagon.

CLEARLY THE WORDS OF A WOLF!

[Luco]

It's funny. I posted more about my thoughts and looked wolfy, this game I have been reading and not posting much to avoid the same pitfalls of the last few games and I still look wolfy. It's funny how people think I look wolfy all the time no matter what I do or don't do. Pretty easy now for wolves to start saying I look wolfy and can get a village to jump on a wagon.

Jyms, what are your thoughts on drew & jkds?

[jyms]

Drew as irrelevant as I am. We will both be hung up out of convenience and conjecture. Neither of us will make end game because "we look wolfy"

JKDS is a horrible lynch if he's a villager. He's both a good wolf and a good villager, not unlike daven, gabe, gator, rong or JV to name a few. It's day one and I just don't care what happens since it's a crap shoot. This game is loaded with good players and all we need is conversations. We are getting them

[bigred]

JKDS is slightly odd this game...

Also, Ong is the horse and his arguments are the car:

[bigred]

I also don't want to lynch jyms yet. Yes, he's playing a different game, but I'm not quite sure which game that is. Same with JKDS. I like a Daven lynch much more.

[OngBonga]

I still think lynching ong is our most +ev move.

Then you must have been dropped on your head or something.

It's the most -ev move, something clever people should easily figure out.

I can understand bigwolf wanting me dead today, but you? This is an awful post dan. I die tomorrow, that's +ev. But today it's a massive mistake.

[OngBonga]

gator is been playing but not really taking any strong positions. he probably has a decent shot at being a wolf

lets kill daven, ong lookup gator, angel protect ong. the end

And if jack comes back wolf gabe shoots to the top of my list. It's interesting that gabe is trying to get me to look up gator. There's plenty of other seers who can do that. I'm interested in bigred and jack, and I'm not about to be influenced by anyone who isn't confirmed villager.

[bigred]

Wow that's some crazy logic. So a wolf would never attempt to misdirect the town into making optimal wolf moves because lol as if a wolf would ever be so blatant? Is that it?

[OngBonga]

This holds no weight. If he's a wolf and you're a villager then it's true. But if he's a villager then you've put him in a bind as follows:

Jv -v, ong-v. You look him up. We have to lynch you or jv to prove roles.

Jv-w, ong-w. You look him up, say w/e, we lynch one of you to prove roles.

Jv-w, ong-v. You look him up, we have to lynch one of you to prove roles.

Jv-v, ong-w. You say w/e, we have to lynch one of you to prove roles.

Regardless of outcome we have to lynch one of you to prove roles. So by saying you'll look him up, regardless of his role you put him in a tricky spot.

This is actually worse for him than that. I mean we were all over lynching you regardless tomorrow. But I can guarantee what will happen if you are a wolf. Your look up comes back wolf. Regardless of who you look up. Because then we face a spot of if we lynch you it can't prove jv's role. But if we lynch jv it can prove your role (ie it can prove you lied if jv flips villager). So we're always better off lynching jv tomorrow.

Given that whenever we get close to lynching a wolf he always outs as a seer who is very soon to act (outing as angel doesn't make you valuable enough and outing as seer 3 nights away doesn't either) I actually think we should lynch ong.

I'm also always suspicious of anyone who tries to butter me up in any way which ong has repeatedly.

Ok so I absorbed this post.

He's not in a tricky spot if we're both villagers. That's because I get lynched first if I show up tomorrow with an innocent report. Thus, he gets cleared when I die. That's the best case scenario for jack, yet he doesn't seem to be too thrilled about it.

[OngBonga]

I actually think we should lynch ong.

And still you're pushing for the lynch of someone who is going to either die overnight, clear a villager, or nail a wolf.

You're not this stupid dan. What the fuck?

[OngBonga]

lynch rong

[bigred]

What's the vote count? I still think daven is best but I'd be interested to see the wagon distribution.

[OngBonga]

Even if I'm a wolf, I die tomorrow. Your logic is so flawed dan that there's no way I can sit here and say you're a bad lynch today anymore.

[bigred]

Even if I'm a wolf, I die tomorrow. Your logic is so flawed dan that there's no way I can sit here and say you're a bad lynch today anymore.

[OngBonga]

I'm the fat woman who tried to stifle her laugh.

[Luco]

Drew as irrelevant as I am. We will both be hung up out of convenience and conjecture. Neither of us will make end game because "we look wolfy"

JKDS is a horrible lynch if he's a villager. He's both a good wolf and a good villager, not unlike daven, gabe, gator, rong or JV to name a few. It's day one and I just don't care what happens since it's a crap shoot. This game is loaded with good players and all we need is conversations. We are getting them

See, you've posted that you're deliberately playing quietly this game and I don't understand why. You're one of several players who have a natural baseline of 'wolfy' but if you're gonna turtle all game it masks your role. Why be quiet if you're town? Just post

I gave you a pass for sheeping gabe as I think you'd do that this game regardless of role, but I can totally see you going into hiding this game if you flopped wolf again.

[bigred]

I'm giving jyms a day 1 pass. We'll see what happens on day 2.

[Luco]

JKDS is slightly odd this game...

Also, Ong is the horse and his arguments are the car:

300 posts for a bigred gif. It was worth the wait. I have no clue what the metaphor is but LOL

[OngBonga]

The metaphor is - ong is the horse (I get in the car), the car is my argument (it sinks) and the bit bigred missed out is that jack is under the car (crushed)

[rong]

Then you must have been dropped on your head or something.

It's the most -ev move, something clever people should easily figure out.

I can understand bigwolf wanting me dead today, but you? This is an awful post dan. I die tomorrow, that's +ev. But today it's a massive mistake.

Oh right, you're back to saying you die tomorrow. I thought that once you'd convinced the village that you should definitely survive today that you'd changed your tune on that one to the village having to decide based on your look up. Nice to know your back there again though.

[rong]

So Ong, you said my logic is flawed. Where exactly is the flaw? Break that down for me. Don't just rant and rave and sprout your opinion. Show me where this flaw is. I laid out my thinking pretty clearly, so which bit is flawed?

[OngBonga]

Well my death tomorrow is inevitable. Even if I bink a wolf, you'll still want me dead. I'll obviously be saying "It's better to lynch the wolf guys" and you'll all be levelling yourself into thinking that in a game of multiple seers I'd be stupid enough ot fakeclaim n1 seer and then get a wolf buddy lynched and somehow dodge seers and lynch all game and win because I'm so fucking good.

But here you are saying I should die today, so the village gets nothing from this situation.

[OngBonga]

So Ong, you said my logic is flawed. Where exactly is the flaw? Break that down for me. Don't just rant and rave and sprout your opinion. Show me where this flaw is. I laid out my thinking pretty clearly, so which bit is flawed?

Your logic is flawed because - if I'm a wolf, then it doesn't matter if I die today or tomorrow or the next day, but if I'm a villager (which I am) then me dying today is so retarded that I can't be bothered to explain the retarded logic to someone pretending to be a retard.

[OngBonga]

Explain why it's +ev to kill me today dan.

[Luco]

I've finally read through. Will save my thoughts on Ong till tomorrow or it will cloud the thread.

I had daven as solid villager until wuf's post about the wolves having the pm. I do see it now, it's just noise until he gets jabbed.

I'll be on my phone now. I'll stick with jyms for now, don't mind daven either. I'm suspicious of keith too, his last post shows that he's at least reading the thread even if quiet.

[bigred]

I've finally read through. Will save my thoughts on Ong till tomorrow or it will cloud the thread.

I don't like this...

[rong]

Well ong, briefly as it's kids bed time:

This game is designed for wolves to fake out.

Every time a wolf is nearly lynched they will fake out as a seer who acts shortly. (as explained in a previous post)

Therefore if anyone outs like that it should be ignored, otherwise it always takes two days to Lynch a wolf, which means 3 villager deaths in that period of time.

Also, in a seer rich game, losing the odd one isn't as bad as normal.

Ergo lynch ongbonga

[OngBonga]

Wow so you either actually think this is a good move, and thus are actually stupid, or you're a wolf.

You would have a point about it taking two days to lynch a wolf etc if we weren't discussing this on day one. Lynching a wolf on day 2 instead of day 1 is not a problem for the village, especially when the person you are considering lynching has claimed n1 seer and as such becomes spent after the first night and can be safely lynched with no loss to village other than the mislynch itself.

It's astonishing that you are failing to understand this dan. If you're a villager, you're stupid. It's pretty stupid as a wolf too. You#re stupider than I realised. I'm sorry I called you smart in the past, I didn't mean to inflate your ego undeservedly.

[Keith]

dan your logic is terribad.
if ong is village then let the wolves use an eat up on him or let them have to toss a coin on whether he is a n1 angel protecting himself or that some other n1 angel protects him or that he is a n1 seer. As a village we lose nothing by letting him live and can gain by finding any information he brings should he survive the night and then lynch him tomorrow.

if ong is a wolf , he dies tomorrow anyway so what do we lose?

[OngBonga]

To ram the message home, if you could be 95% certain that I'm a wolf, then it's STILL better to lynch me tomorrow because there's a 5% chance that my death clears a villager or nails a wolf, something that the village lose if I die today.

[OngBonga]

dan your logic is terribad.
if ong is village then let the wolves use an eat up on him or let them have to toss a coin on whether he is a n1 angel protecting himself or that some other n1 angel protects him or that he is a n1 seer. As a village we lose nothing by letting him live and can gain by finding any information he brings should he survive the night and then lynch him tomorrow.

if ong is a wolf , he dies tomorrow anyway so what do we lose?

This.

I don't really want to die tomorrow but I at least recognise it won't be a horrible mistake for the village. I don't think keith believes me rong, yet he's taking the correct approach. Why aren't you?

[Keith]

This holds no weight. If he's a wolf and you're a villager then it's true. But if he's a villager then you've put him in a bind as follows:

Jv -v, ong-v. You look him up. We have to lynch you or jv to prove roles.

Jv-w, ong-w. You look him up, say w/e, we lynch one of you to prove roles.

Jv-w, ong-v. You look him up, we have to lynch one of you to prove roles.

Jv-v, ong-w. You say w/e, we have to lynch one of you to prove roles.

Regardless of outcome we have to lynch one of you to prove roles. So by saying you'll look him up, regardless of his role you put him in a tricky spot.

This is actually worse for him than that. I mean we were all over lynching you regardless tomorrow. But I can guarantee what will happen if you are a wolf. Your look up comes back wolf. Regardless of who you look up. Because then we face a spot of if we lynch you it can't prove jv's role. But if we lynch jv it can prove your role (ie it can prove you lied if jv flips villager). So we're always better off lynching jv tomorrow.

Given that whenever we get close to lynching a wolf he always outs as a seer who is very soon to act (outing as angel doesn't make you valuable enough and outing as seer 3 nights away doesn't either) I actually think we should lynch ong.

I'm also always suspicious of anyone who tries to butter me up in any way which ong has repeatedly.

Again rubbish, ong dies and we find out if he is village or not, we don't risk any potential seers or angels and then based on knowing ongs role then we can take a decision on whether to lynch whoever he looks up and what he claims they are.

Also , if ong survives the night and shows up wolf if he's lynched and i get eaten , look carefully at the people who have been pointing at me ....gabe luco and rong. I've already shown that i'm not going to let ong get away without being lynched tomorrow . is this thwarting the wolves plan and would try to get rid of me so that wolf ong could bring a wolf found report back tomorrow and try and survive a lynch by getting a fellow wolf killed and gain village cred as a result.

[OngBonga]

To be clear - I don't have a problem with people not believing me. It might surprise me that you think a wolf who felt like he was forced to fakeclaim on d1 would claim a n1 action, but it doesn't matter. What matters is that I live through the night. That's +ev for village, while killing me today is -ev. I never survive for long as a wolf in this spot..

Here's a thought. If I'm right about jack, then the wolves will be forced to nom me, right? If they nom me, what does that tell the village about jack? Yeah it looks bad for him. So if jack is wolf, the wolves won't want to nom me, nor will they want to leave me to look up a wolf.

If jack is a villager, then wolves might want to leave me alive, because while I clear jack, I'm tomorrow's lynch. They could nom me anyway so it looks bad for jack, but it seems better to just nom jack outright and leave me to be lynched.

We find out me a lot about me and jack overnight. Why would you want to jeopordise that?

What you're doing here dan is protecting jack and bigred from my night action. I might ask why you would do this?

[Keith]

This holds no weight. If he's a wolf and you're a villager then it's true. But if he's a villager then you've put him in a bind as follows:

Jv -v, ong-v. You look him up. We have to lynch you or jv to prove roles.

Jv-w, ong-w. You look him up, say w/e, we lynch one of you to prove roles.

Jv-w, ong-v. You look him up, we have to lynch one of you to prove roles.

Jv-v, ong-w. You say w/e, we have to lynch one of you to prove roles.

Regardless of outcome we have to lynch one of you to prove roles. So by saying you'll look him up, regardless of his role you put him in a tricky spot.

This is actually worse for him than that. I mean we were all over lynching you regardless tomorrow. But I can guarantee what will happen if you are a wolf. Your look up comes back wolf. Regardless of who you look up. Because then we face a spot of if we lynch you it can't prove jv's role. But if we lynch jv it can prove your role (ie it can prove you lied if jv flips villager). So we're always better off lynching jv tomorrow.

Given that whenever we get close to lynching a wolf he always outs as a seer who is very soon to act (outing as angel doesn't make you valuable enough and outing as seer 3 nights away doesn't either) I actually think we should lynch ong.

I'm also always suspicious of anyone who tries to butter me up in any way which ong has repeatedly.

Again rubbish, ong dies and we find out if he is village or not, we don't risk any potential seers or angels and then based on knowing ongs role then we can take a decision on whether to lynch whoever he looks up and what he claims they are.

Also , if ong survives the night and shows up wolf if he's lynched and i get eaten , look carefully at the people who have been pointing at me ....gabe luco and rong. I've already shown that i'm not going to let ong get away without being lynched tomorrow . is this thwarting the wolves plan and would try to get rid of me so that wolf ong could bring a wolf found report back tomorrow and try and survive a lynch by getting a fellow wolf killed and gain village cred as a result.

[Hoopy]

We've got about 3 hours left, I think we should consolidate onto jyms or daven and see what happens tonight.

I'm sticking with jyms for now.

[wufwugy]

rong - ong
ong - rong
gator - daven
luco - jyms
gabe - daven
jkds - jv
bid - jv
jv - daven
bigred - daven
jyms - gator
daven - jyms
hoop - jyms
keith - daven

ong - 1
rong - 1
daven - 5
jyms - 3
jv - 2
gator - 1

Under two and a half hours left

[BankItDrew]

Drew as irrelevant as I am. We will both be hung up out of convenience and conjecture. Neither of us will make end game because "we look wolfy"

JKDS is a horrible lynch if he's a villager. He's both a good wolf and a good villager, not unlike daven, gabe, gator, rong or JV to name a few. It's day one and I just don't care what happens since it's a crap shoot. This game is loaded with good players and all we need is conversations. We are getting them

I like this post by jyms.

I don't know what the word conjecture meansbut I like the cut of this guys jib.

It's true what he says aboot day 1 crapshoots too. It's so silly to get caught up in looking for too much.

[wufwugy]

I'm so right about these two slimy fuckers.

@wuf - What's prize for MVP?

You didn't get the memo? I retired the award. NOBODY ELSE CAN HAVE IT

[wufwugy]

BID ur a lucky fuck i was literally (literally) minutes away from replacing you

[JKDS]

rescind, lynch jyms

Jyms or jack plz. Fuck lynching daven, fuck lynching ong.

Hey, ho, lets go.

[BankItDrew]

But day 1 hadn't even ended yet.