Ongblog 2014

[Savy]

1 - In general sizing is too small on turn, river would be too thin imo.

2 - Think river is a call. He doesn't have KK, QQ, TT because he'd fire the flop because it's so wet. He doesn't have AJ here very often seems a bit wide vs an UTG open so the only realistic hands he could have that beats you is AA. All just seems a little off imo.

3 - Folding seems fine I think.

4 - You're probably fine doing this against an unknown imo.

[OngBonga]

1 - In general sizing is too small on turn, river would be too thin imo.

2 - Think river is a call. He doesn't have KK, QQ, TT because he'd fire the flop because it's so wet. He doesn't have AJ here very often seems a bit wide vs an UTG open so the only realistic hands he could have that beats you is AA. All just seems a little off imo.

3 - Folding seems fine I think.

4 - You're probably fine doing this against an unknown imo.

Yeah #2 I felt somewhat nitty there. It's just these river overbets are rarely bluffs at 10nl.

And had we been deeper than 200bb in #4, I'm likely to tread more carefully. I felt 2BI was reasonable, assuming villain is also stacking AKs and QQ. But that assumption may be optimistic.

[daven]

hand 1 - consider 2.5x as default steal vs unknowns. Bigger on turn. Block river for about $1 cos he'll crying call the 10bb heaps and 10bb is the same as another 100 hands at 5BB/100.
hand 2 - meh nit fold pre. river looks fine, you're smoked when he bets like that
hand 3 - problem with preflop is that after you call the 4b you aren't happy at all raising after flopping one of the best hands you could hope for. Turn is a clear fold without reads. If he's 70-40 over 8 hands or something then get it in. But do that pre.
hand 4 - Call the 4b. How many 6b shoves you see that aren't aces at 10nl? especially deep.

in general the 'vs unknown' thing bugs me. You have reads after 5 hands. They are obviously flawed etc, but it's enough to help make a decision. Also, if you are reg at the stake then if you don't have them colour coded already then they're not a reg, this is also a useful read. Hands vs absolute unknowns (i.e. 3 hands or less of history) aren't that interesting. Trying to judge decisions in an information vacuum when that info is available is problematic.