Werewolf bitches!

[Hoopy]

I must tell you all that I actually might survive the night because the wolves have a role blocker and they may want to leave some doubt over Gabe. For what it's worth they also have an alpha wolf who comes back villager when looked up.

Fuck, this is like the 7th consecutive day we haven't lynched a wolf.

Uggghhh that makes things harder.

If they leave you alone tonight then they'll probably go for flomo or JV assuming they're legit (tiny chance they're not).

Confirmed Villagers
Luco
jack
flomo
hoopy

Leaning Villager
bankitdrew

Unknown
benny
keith

Leaning Wolf
bigred
gator

Wolves
gabe

[BennyLaRue]

I must tell you all that I actually might survive the night because the wolves have a role blocker and they may want to leave some doubt over Gabe. For what it's worth they also have an alpha wolf who comes back villager when looked up.

How would you know this? What do you mean by role blocker?

[BennyLaRue]

Also:

Attachment 665

[Hoopy]

I'm pretty sold on drew as a villager. His n1 wuf rant is potentially too tricky for him to pull off as a wolf.

Benny I'm much less certain of. Need to see more.

Agree about drew, I'm happy with him as a villager for now.

I'm going to check back over both benny and gabe's posts this afternoon.

[Luco]

How would you know this? What do you mean by role blocker?

It was implied in the wording of my pm. I receive either 'villager', 'wolf ', or' unsuccessful' when I send my lookup. I don't know what else unsuccessful could mean.

[jackvance]

Wtf. Have to believe luco, he was my villager read and his behavior actually makes sense for a strong special. So gabe's a wolf, no surprise there he has been one of my top suspects since day 1 but it's just hard to actually get him lynched because he's such a strong villager.

Daven flipping villager is a big surprise, we'll be down to the wire after the night kill at 5-4 so no more bolding until we reach a village consensus bc one wrong villager bold from now on and the wolves can close out and win. That counts for every day from now on. This game has been one enormous village fail but we still have a shot now with the seer outing. I was hoping that would happen soon.

A team of: gabe/gator/br/keith makes some sense. Keith would be much more active if he was a villager in the spot we are in imo. But that must have meant gabe decided to get some villager cred by sacrificing br out of nowhere? I need to reread the thread. Why would gabe flip away from a villager wagon when it's such a sure thing and he can just sit back?

Still I like the plan of killing in this order: gabe, gator, keith and then seeing who the last wolf is among bid/bigred/benny.

[jackvance]

Wolfy gabe:

luco is a retarded wolf, or a random seer, or a naive seer

A villager gabe would probably be at luco's throat here for being a wolf instead of doing this:

rescind and lynch daven

Any good theory about what to make of his play at lynching bigred?

[BennyLaRue]

It was implied in the wording of my pm. I receive either 'villager', 'wolf ', or' unsuccessful' when I send my lookup. I don't know what else unsuccessful could mean.

Cool. Good explanation.

[BennyLaRue]

Daven flipping villager is a big surprise

No, it really isn't. It was based on previous games and not this one.

Now let's stop talking at night.

[jackvance]

Now let's stop talking at night.

It might be a good idea to talk actually.

[Luco]

I don't know how night talk could make things any worse. At this point Gabe feels like a consolation prize.

[BennyLaRue]

It might be a good idea to talk actually.

Gives the wolves all the info they need to form the best strategy but what are you thinking?

[BennyLaRue]

Nobody bold tomorrow until much discussion, ldo.

[jackvance]

Gives the wolves all the info they need to form the best strategy but what are you thinking?

The wolves, whoever they may be, probably need to restrategize after luco's reveal. I'd definitely love to hear from everyone before they can fully coordinate a plan.

[BankItDrew]

I've never suspected luco so I'm inclined to believe him. Does fake outing make any sense at this point in the game with the wolves crushing?

Rescind

I'm currently on travel but may have a chance to have a read through on gabe later in the day irl.

[BennyLaRue]

Wtf. Have to believe luco, he was my villager read and his behavior actually makes sense for a strong special. So gabe's a wolf, no surprise there he has been one of my top suspects since day 1 but it's just hard to actually get him lynched because he's such a strong villager.

Daven flipping villager is a big surprise, we'll be down to the wire after the night kill at 5-4 so no more bolding until we reach a village consensus bc one wrong villager bold from now on and the wolves can close out and win. That counts for every day from now on. This game has been one enormous village fail but we still have a shot now with the seer outing. I was hoping that would happen soon.

A team of: gabe/gator/br/keith makes some sense. Keith would be much more active if he was a villager in the spot we are in imo. But that must have meant gabe decided to get some villager cred by sacrificing br out of nowhere? I need to reread the thread. Why would gabe flip away from a villager wagon when it's such a sure thing and he can just sit back?

Still I like the plan of killing in this order: gabe, gator, keith and then seeing who the last wolf is among bid/bigred/benny.

Ok, so we'll chat. I like this post but why is Hoopy a confirmed villager?

[BennyLaRue]

A villager gabe would probably be at luco's throat here for being a wolf instead of doing this:

Isn't he basically admitting he's a wolf here (underlining is mine)?

luco is a retarded wolf, or a random seer, or a naive seer


being a dumb wolf wouldnt make any sense so its probably the other 2

rescind and lynch daven

[jackvance]

Ok, so we'll chat. I like this post but why is Hoopy a confirmed villager?

Not by any means confirmed. But definitely one of my stronger villager reads and I'm normally pretty suspicious of Hoopy. We'll have to open up all the options as the recent events point very strongly towards bigred being a villager.

Gabe led the village to let me decide, which he knew would be daven bc I had been pretty open about my suspicions. Then at the end he tries to switch to bigred. No way does he want to lynch a wolf, they want the perfect win. If the momentum had switched to bigred then they'd still have daven to lynch the day after for a very easy win.

If br is indeed a villager then 4 wolves in these 6: Gabe, Gator, Keith, Benny, BID, Hoopy. Tricky because the last 3 seem villagery to me.

[BennyLaRue]

Then at the end he tries to switch to bigred. No way does he want to lynch a wolf, they want the perfect win. If the momentum had switched to bigred then they'd still have daven to lynch the day after for a very easy win.

There was no real threat to bigred at the time though and it's good cover for a wolf to vote for another wolf in otherwise non-threatening situations. Then again, he did kick off the voting against bigred here late on Day 2 when some of us began to question bigred's change of style. That's a riskier spot.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...02#post2192502

The most damning case against bigred is his vote for daven with absolutely no reasoning after 12 hours of silence, which set up the hammer vote for the wolves.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...73#post2192973

[BennyLaRue]

Uggghhh that makes things harder.

This is the kind of thing wolves say to appear villagery. Hoopy has done this a few times. What villager genuinely expresses obvious emotion like this?

[jackvance]

Good point.

[BennyLaRue]

It's interesting when you see the votes on the ultimate lynch victims, it becomes clear we're just leveling ourselves. Many of these voters are confirmed villagers.

D1 Jyms - Daven, Keith, Flomo, Hoopy, Aubrey, Rong
D2 Aubrey - Rong, Keith, Gator, Benny
D3 Daven - Jack, Luco, Hoopy, Gator, Bigred, Gabe

Gator voted wufwugy on D1, so he's 0-3 on picking wolves. Good evidence why he should be second on our suspect list.

[gabe]

I still don't see how daven is ever a villager here but Gabe, while we wait for Ong to wake up I want you to at least get some satisfaction that your daven vote is proper messing with my head

thanks. im trying to kill the wolves

[gabe]

so who should we lynch tomorrow? we have a long time to decide

[Hoopy]

Big post incoming.

we should pick off of that wagon.

voted jv: luco, gator, gabe, jyms, rilla, keith, aubrey

i think we choose between luco, jyms and keith

aubrey is less suspicious because her being a wolf was predicated on a her+jv wolf team.
rescind

Avoids mentioning Gator or rilla.

these are my favorite type of reads lately and they have a pretty huge success rate. might as well start it off right
lynch keith


also i have a few 12+hr flights before day 1 ends so im glad day 1 is 5 days but that seems like too much for everyday

we could just get our shit together as a village and reach the vote requirement every time!

Attacking keith on day 1, iirc keith got to like 3-4 votes.

also we know gator can be tough but I feel I can spot it when he slips up. I've nailed some crazy ninja reads on him when he's been a wolf recently so I dare him to keep posting a bunch and risk his peril

Subtle defense of Gator.

the best shot we have is a name off that list. gator was first to bold jv, i made a small case for it then everyone else piled on. so theres a wolf between luco/jyms/keith/rilla/aubrey. aubrey is villagery after it turns out jv is clear. rilla is dangerous but valuable.

lynch keith but ill glady switch to the other 2.

Goes for late JV wagon members, attacks keith again.

rescind because after rereading aubrey seems like she would post that stuff naturally as a villager. luco and hoopy also seem like theyre authentically digging. none of rongs posts are wolfy. benny is 99% villager after the whole substitution thing. rilla i hope is a villager

theres not much battling which means we probably havent really pressed a wolf. keith has been the most defensive in the thread so thats wolfy. i could be down with a daven lynch or maybe drew...

Saying benny is a 99% villager stands out.

bigreds posts contain nothing

the fact they contain nothing and then he says flomo being MIA is odd makes me think bigred is projecting his absentee wolfism

he also said that since he likes picking off people on the JV bandwagon. we've kinda aimed at people on this wagon and nothing seems to take off (which if there is no wolf there, it explains the lack of fervor in this thread). bigred didnt seem wolfy at the time of posting, but with the development of the thread, he does

lynch bigred

Attacking BR.

the chip thing is a pretty good reason for benny to not be a wolf. but the mod knows this, and wouldnt want to have a confirmed villager from the start, so maybe benny got tapped to be a wolf...

this is ridiculous. if you are a bad guy then trusting you tomorrow will make the village lose

Don't see how chipeater going awol clears his replacement, I think Ong would try to replace rather than modkill regardless of role.

daven and bigred are leading candidates. gator keith hoopy are all tier 2 imo

Going after BR again, dropping a lot of names.

what if flomo knew he wasnt going to play much this game? combined with JV knowing about the mason rule, they could have easily come up with this plan and not be too risky

also this game has definitely been quieter, like the wolves are sitting back and waiting for us to kill eachother. if jv and flomo believed their play worked, they wouldnt have to post very much

yesterday i was thinking we just had to hope this scenario was 0%, but the more i think about it the more likely it is

Pushing the theory that JV/flomo are wolves.

that is a seriously wolfy post by bankitdrew. "You can blame me if the village loses again" sounds like his subconscious betraying his wolf role

Tries to implicate drew

Seems like gabe has pushed keith on and off throughout the game, suddenly he's started widening his suspects to include bigred and drew and jv/flomo. He's never really pressed Gator at all.

[Keith]

sorry guys been distracted the last couple of days. if you want a good read http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/13...e-liar-1412877. when you get to the end you'll see i've been breaking down his cash/transactions ....still doing it (getting near the end now) but basically it will prove that hes a scammer and stole the stake by donking $1800 off on cash games on a $500 Mtt SNG stake

[Hoopy]

I remember a game a while back when I was seer and Gator was a wolf. He ended up picking me off on day 2 and several other specials that game. Based on the 2 specials killed so far he's suspect.

[GatorJH]

Gator voted wufwugy on D1, so he's 0-3 on picking wolves.

Isn't everybody 0-3 on voting wolves at this point?

I feel like crap because life stuff has made it impossible to really engage in the game and makes it seem like I am a wolf this game when I am not (tbh, that was the reason I almost didn't play this game). I need to think over something but till then will look over the thread and provide my thoughts on Hoopy, Keith, BID and Bigred.

[GatorJH]

I remember a game a while back when I was seer and Gator was a wolf. He ended up picking me off on day 2 and several other specials that game. Based on the 2 specials killed so far he's suspect.

I would challenge you to read that wolf thread if you remember the game. Any games where I was the wolf and a special was bagged I am most certain it was one of my wolf buddies that pegged the special. TBH, I suck at spotting specials.

[BennyLaRue]

Isn't everybody 0-3 on voting wolves at this point?

No, actually.

[gabe]

Big post incoming.

Avoids mentioning Gator or rilla.

Attacking keith on day 1, iirc keith got to like 3-4 votes.

Subtle defense of Gator.

Goes for late JV wagon members, attacks keith again.

Saying benny is a 99% villager stands out.

Attacking BR.

Don't see how chipeater going awol clears his replacement, I think Ong would try to replace rather than modkill regardless of role.

Going after BR again, dropping a lot of names.

Pushing the theory that JV/flomo are wolves.

Tries to implicate drew

Seems like gabe has pushed keith on and off throughout the game, suddenly he's started widening his suspects to include bigred and drew and jv/flomo. He's never really pressed Gator at all.

this is alot of analysis. im not a wolf...

[Luco]

JV do I post my thoughts now or wait till nearer the deadline?

[jackvance]

Everyone's still cautiously sitting back so I'd wait.

[gabe]

we might as well talk about stuff. why would you encourage silence when so little work has been done this game? you guys have a sick wolf style

[Luco]

we might as well talk about stuff. why would you encourage silence when so little work has been done this game? you guys have a sick wolf style

You're right, let's get some discussion going.

So Gabe... How's your weekend going? Life treating you well?

[Hoopy]

this is alot of analysis. im not a wolf...

Strong argument, wtf was I thinking.

JV do I post my thoughts now or wait till nearer the deadline?

I'd have them typed and ready to post right before deadline.

[gabe]

You're right, let's get some discussion going.

So Gabe... How's your weekend going? Life treating you well?

life is incredible right now except for you trying to turn everyone against me. I won't stand for it! so anyway how's your weekend

[Luco]

Not bad at all, thanks for asking

[Luco]

I'd have them typed and ready to post right before deadline.

I think there's a trade off of risk and reward to posting early. On the one hand it helps the wolves with the night action but then it also gives villagers a chance to assess and respond, so I dunno.

[Luco]

Midnight approaches. Will our blundering hero survive the night? Tune in to find out!

[Luco]

Ok I'm off to bed. Thoughts as promised

Player list:

bigred
bankitdrew
hoopy
luco
jack
gabe
keith
flomo
benny
gator

4 wolves in there. Let's narrow it down.

JV/flomo: if they are wolves then this game was lost on d1. Don't be tempted. Lock villagers.

Luco: lock villager and seer.

Drew: villager. His posting style is very open and unpolished, he told us all to fuck off in his first post. He attacked wuf during the night. Gabe turned on him hard on d3. He's a villager and both JV and I think so.

Keith: gabe really really wanted him dead d1. Villager.

Bigred: gabe really really wanted him dead d2 and d3. Villager.

This leaves gabe, gator, Hoopy and benny.

Gabe: seered wolf. Nuff said.

Gator: has defended gabe. when asked his opinion on daven he gave a strangely neutral answer at a time when others were convinced daven was wolfin. This is wolf gator armed with foreknowledge. I have no doubt he will protest to this assessment.

Hoopy: has been posting but has avoided heat despite a couple of starter bolds. Gabe has been soft on him. When bigred said 'let's lynch daven or hoopy' gabe replied 'let's lynch luco' which is a big red flag to me. He's been late onto a lot of wagons. Also, when gabe tried to derail daven d3 he pushed for bigred while Hoopy's wagon was still live. Why not push for Hoopy? Hoopy flipping wolf would provide further weight to bigred / keith as villagers.

Benny: gabe really pushed that chip was villager. Benny had gabe in his villager list. 4th wolf by process of elimination.

Tl:dr if any of JV, flomo, luco, Keith or bigred are wolves then this game is non-standard by virtue of:
- fake outing (JV flomo luco)
- wolves going super hard at each other d1 (keith)
- wolves switching attention from villager to wolf, twice, including when a villager is on L-1 (bigred)

And drew is a villager.

That only leaves four.

[gabe]

luco why did you post all that during the night? if you are a wolf then you arent dying tonight

[BennyLaRue]

Nope.

[OngBonga]

On phone i'll post properly tomorrow

Luco got nommed, he was seer.

It's whatever day it is.

Bitches.

[gabe]

what do you mean he was the seer?

why would he lie

[OngBonga]

I've stolen my Mother's laptop and figured out her password!

Surprise surprise, the wolves nommed luco. They ate him feet first to ensure maximum pain. He was still conscious when they got to his bollocks, but like the man that he is he didn't cry out in pain. What a hero.

luco has been nommed!
He was village seer!

bitches -

bigred
bankitdrew
hoopy
jack
gabe
keith
flomo
benny
gator

villagers:wolves 5:4

dead bitches -

jyms - vanilla - lynched d1
wuf - angel - nommed n1
aubrey - vanilla - lynched d2
rong - vanilla - shot n2
rilla - vig - nommed n2
daven - vanilla - lynched d3
luco - seer - nommed n3

It's d4! You have until Thursday 11pm UK, 6pm ET.

5 to lynch! Mislynch and LOSE, village!

[gabe]

lynch jackvance
i dont buy the whole mason thing. no one questioned it so its the best possible wolf play. if no one challenges JV + flomo, then the play they executed get the wolf gang a win everytime

[BennyLaRue]

Explanation for my post yesterday about the seer not looking me up. It was vanilla villager FPS. Would have served me a couple of ways:

1) Could have been interpreted by the wolves that I was a special and worth nomming. Better me than a real special. If it was even a small edge it was worth pushing since we have no angel and that extra seer lookup would have been invaluable.
2) Could have convinced the seer to actually look me up, which would lock my place at the end. As one of the few actually attempting to use facts and logical reasoning instead of surmising that "Dude was a wolf once, therefore again!", I thought that would, you know, be a useful tool at the end.

Here's the thing about using logic in this game. You can't do it as a wolf. I've tried and been burned every time. JV, you were a wolf with me and you know this. My playing style is only useful as a villager and it's hella apparent when I'm not one.

[BennyLaRue]

Drew: villager. His posting style is very open and unpolished, he told us all to fuck off in his first post. He attacked wuf during the night. Gabe turned on him hard on d3. He's a villager and both JV and I think so. .

You're dead and can't respond, ldo, but BID is random. He's always random. Him telling everyone to fuck off is evidence of nothing. To conclude he's a villager based on this thin reasoning and then that I'm a wolf by process of elimination despite having so many posts of mine to read and conclude my motives makes no sense.

[BennyLaRue]

I've stolen my Mother's laptop and figured out her password!

Was it "Magnum"?

[BennyLaRue]

As a villager, if you're not posting with solid content like 10-20 times today, you're not doing your job and we lose because of you. If you have any pride whatsoever, you will not let us get skunked.

[BennyLaRue]

Benny: gabe really pushed that chip was villager. Benny had gabe in his villager list.

I'll correct this line of thinking so it isn't hanging out there. Gabe gave me a lot of rope to hang myself with - it would have been counter-productive to attack me since I came out with Aubrey, Luco and bigred in my suspect list. At least 2/3rd wrong. It's the same thing he did saying JV and flomo should lead and it led to daven dying.

The second statement is misleading. Here, I said I wasn't seeing anything wolfy from him yet and it was early in my gameplay:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...be#post2192422

Here, I said if daven was a wolf then gabe wasn't. It was conditional and the condition wasn't true.

[bigred]

lynch gabe

luco said so and we need a sure thing

[bigred]

Also, someone requote that bigred genuis who said the wolf to villager ratio was far too high on day 1

[bigred]

he's so smart he can't even spell genius

[bigred]

Oh, so we lynch gabe and let the wolves give us another confirmed villager on d5 to evaluate who to lynch. this should be a quick day.

[GatorJH]

Explanation for my post yesterday about the seer not looking me up. It was vanilla villager FPS. Would have served me a couple of ways:

1) Could have been interpreted by the wolves that I was a special and worth nomming. Better me than a real special. If it was even a small edge it was worth pushing since we have no angel and that extra seer lookup would have been invaluable.
2) Could have convinced the seer to actually look me up, which would lock my place at the end. As one of the few actually attempting to use facts and logical reasoning instead of surmising that "Dude was a wolf once, therefore again!", I thought that would, you know, be a useful tool at the end.

Here's the thing about using logic in this game. You can't do it as a wolf. I've tried and been burned every time. JV, you were a wolf with me and you know this. My playing style is only useful as a villager and it's hella apparent when I'm not one.

Meh, I already had you in my villager camp and this doesn't change anything.

After reviewing the thread during the night I think the four wolves are Gabe (ldo), Bigred, Hoopy and BID.

[GatorJH]

Oh, so we lynch gabe and let the wolves give us another confirmed villager on d5 to evaluate who to lynch. this should be a quick day.

We already have two 99.9% confirmed villagers in Flomo and JV and if one of them dies tonight we don't get any additional info. A quick day here only helps the wolves so I am not sure why you are recommending one.

[bigred]

Meh, I already had you in my villager camp and this doesn't change anything.

After reviewing the thread during the night I think the four wolves are Gabe (ldo), Bigred, Hoopy and BID.

Cool story brah. Remember when the seer said I was a villager and you probably weren't? Good times, Gator, good times. We're no longer bffs.

[bigred]

Just keeding. I'll mourn you as a BFF when you turn out to be a dead wolf.

[bigred]

Ok I'm off to bed. Thoughts as promised

Player list:

bigred
bankitdrew
hoopy
luco
jack
gabe
keith
flomo
benny
gator

4 wolves in there. Let's narrow it down.

JV/flomo: if they are wolves then this game was lost on d1. Don't be tempted. Lock villagers.

Luco: lock villager and seer.

Drew: villager. His posting style is very open and unpolished, he told us all to fuck off in his first post. He attacked wuf during the night. Gabe turned on him hard on d3. He's a villager and both JV and I think so.

Keith: gabe really really wanted him dead d1. Villager.

Bigred: gabe really really wanted him dead d2 and d3. Villager.

This leaves gabe, gator, Hoopy and benny.

Gabe: seered wolf. Nuff said.

Gator: has defended gabe. when asked his opinion on daven he gave a strangely neutral answer at a time when others were convinced daven was wolfin. This is wolf gator armed with foreknowledge. I have no doubt he will protest to this assessment.

Hoopy: has been posting but has avoided heat despite a couple of starter bolds. Gabe has been soft on him. When bigred said 'let's lynch daven or hoopy' gabe replied 'let's lynch luco' which is a big red flag to me. He's been late onto a lot of wagons. Also, when gabe tried to derail daven d3 he pushed for bigred while Hoopy's wagon was still live. Why not push for Hoopy? Hoopy flipping wolf would provide further weight to bigred / keith as villagers.

Benny: gabe really pushed that chip was villager. Benny had gabe in his villager list. 4th wolf by process of elimination.

Tl:dr if any of JV, flomo, luco, Keith or bigred are wolves then this game is non-standard by virtue of:
- fake outing (JV flomo luco)
- wolves going super hard at each other d1 (keith)
- wolves switching attention from villager to wolf, twice, including when a villager is on L-1 (bigred)

And drew is a villager.

That only leaves four.

This is where someone more sober and hasn't been day drinking (not me) cough Keith cough, takes Luco's post and examines vote history over the last few days and finds us another wolf or two. MAKE IT SO!

[BennyLaRue]

Oh, so we lynch gabe and let the wolves give us another confirmed villager on d5 to evaluate who to lynch. this should be a quick day.

How about we get a full conversation going and then also let the wolves give us another confirmed villager on d5 to evaluate who to lynch?

Rescind or you look wolfy. The wolves can run a train on gabe and end the day when we don't want them to.

[jackvance]

Ok I'm off to bed. Thoughts as promised

Player list:

bigred
bankitdrew
hoopy
luco
jack
gabe
keith
flomo
benny
gator

4 wolves in there. Let's narrow it down.

JV/flomo: if they are wolves then this game was lost on d1. Don't be tempted. Lock villagers.

Luco: lock villager and seer.

Drew: villager. His posting style is very open and unpolished, he told us all to fuck off in his first post. He attacked wuf during the night. Gabe turned on him hard on d3. He's a villager and both JV and I think so.

Keith: gabe really really wanted him dead d1. Villager.

Bigred: gabe really really wanted him dead d2 and d3. Villager.

This leaves gabe, gator, Hoopy and benny.

Gabe: seered wolf. Nuff said.

Gator: has defended gabe. when asked his opinion on daven he gave a strangely neutral answer at a time when others were convinced daven was wolfin. This is wolf gator armed with foreknowledge. I have no doubt he will protest to this assessment.

Hoopy: has been posting but has avoided heat despite a couple of starter bolds. Gabe has been soft on him. When bigred said 'let's lynch daven or hoopy' gabe replied 'let's lynch luco' which is a big red flag to me. He's been late onto a lot of wagons. Also, when gabe tried to derail daven d3 he pushed for bigred while Hoopy's wagon was still live. Why not push for Hoopy? Hoopy flipping wolf would provide further weight to bigred / keith as villagers.

Benny: gabe really pushed that chip was villager. Benny had gabe in his villager list. 4th wolf by process of elimination.

Tl:dr if any of JV, flomo, luco, Keith or bigred are wolves then this game is non-standard by virtue of:
- fake outing (JV flomo luco)
- wolves going super hard at each other d1 (keith)
- wolves switching attention from villager to wolf, twice, including when a villager is on L-1 (bigred)

And drew is a villager.

That only leaves four.

Interesting.

Gabe's just goofing around at this point. I don't totally agree that bid is a villager though. Gabe's a lock wolf and Gator is pretty lock too. Keith not being a wolf, I'm going to have to reread the thread to check that idea.

[GatorJH]

How about we get a full conversation going and then also let the wolves give us another confirmed villager on d5 to evaluate who to lynch?

Rescind or you look wolfy. The wolves can run a train on gabe and end the day when we don't want them to.

They can't if he is a wolf.

[BennyLaRue]

They can't if he is a wolf.

No, nor would they reveal themselves with a whole bunch of votes in the next hour. Point is that we don't bold until we get information. If you do, you relent control.

[GatorJH]

knowing bigred he probably thinks he looks like a villager with that move.

[jackvance]

Done a quick read-through of the thread. Luco proposed a division of:

villagers: bigred, keith, flomo, jv

probably villager: bid

Wolves: Benny, Hoopy, Gator, Gabe

I agree with his villager list, specifically to put bigred and keith in there. Upon rereading the thread, as I'll show below, Keith and gabe had to have been running a massive level for them to be wolves together. Gabe is a wolf as per Luco's look-up. Gator is about as wolfy as you'll ever see him be, no question.

Hoopy is interesting. I hadn't been paying attention to him too much tbh, and now I realize why. I've noticed before that Hoopy can really have a different style based on his role, there's even a clear difference when he is a regular villager or a special. You could say he plays by his emotions. And how is he playing now? Super cautious. He's only trying to follow the flow of the game without being confrontational. An example in quote below. Luco is quite likely right that he is our third wolf.

Then there is benny and bid. I have no idea at this point who of them is the wolf. Benny is making a lot of sense as a villager but like I said before he has a splendid wolf game so luco might very well be right. BID looks villagery but he's up against Benny. To make the choice between BID and Benny, it's about interpreting Gabe's posts about them.

The quotes:

we should pick off of that wagon.

voted jv: luco, gator, gabe, jyms, rilla, keith, aubrey

i think we choose between luco, jyms and keith

aubrey is less suspicious because her being a wolf was predicated on a her+jv wolf team.
rescind

might as well include gator on that list too.

i think rilla shouldnt be lynched because he can nail some wolves in spots where other people cant

He adds a fourth suspect. Was he unsatisfied that his list had only villagers and decided to add another wolf for good measure?

In general, Gator plays a very aggressive style and I believe does so as well. This means they'll straight-forwardly try to lynch villagers and protect wolves. Gator clearly did this all game and so did gabe probably.


Keith in reponse to gabe, as you can see that's pretty huge to be a level:

rubbish , aubrey could still be a wolf and her being a wolf is not predicated on JV being a wolf

so why should we include gator but not rilla . villager Gator can be just as helpful as rilla in the endgame but he's a devious bugger when hes a wolf.

I thought you were supposed to be good at this game. I voted JV because i found undisputable evidence that contradicted what he had already said in the thread. JV has not addressed the fact that he and Aubrey were wolves together when wolves were shown the village PM. He probably forgot is the best explanation if he is a mason as he claims but it is fishy that neither he nor aubrey remembered playing together as wolves having been shown the pm to contradict each other.

ALso you just said that Gator should be on the list , but now (6 minutes later) rilla is on it and gator has disappeared off it . gator is just as dangerous and valuable as rilla yet you want to lynch the person who proved that JV had made an untrue statement rather than hoping on a runaway train.

Gabe seems to be off this game , his logic sucks and hes just as likely to be a wolf piling on.

rescind JV LYNCH GABE

I'm finding myself contradicting myself. Sort of. rong bolded aubs and I think aubs is a lock villager and I said that rong is a villager. Is this a contradiction? Doesn't matter. I think they're both villagers and I don't understand the aubs hate by a lot of people early on. I bolded her for fun tbh.

I don't always agree with bigred but when I do, he makes good points. /meme

He said he preferred a luco lynch to a keith because at least villager keith is good at quality content. For this reason, I'm voting gabe in the gabe vs. keith fiasco.

lynch gabe

my next in line are jyms and daven.

I may be choosing players to stick with early on as far as an alliance goes, just because I think they're so villagery this game. This includes: keith, rilla, and aubs.

Also, ong, what's going on with chippy? The fact that he's not interested makes me think that position is villagery too.

BID is one of the people that bolded Gabe early on.

I like the idea of JV/flomo picking 2 people and running wagons on them today. The more we spread out the easier it is for the wolves to slip by.

Just to remind everyone that Luco and daven can't both be wolves due to Luco's last minute switch yesterday.

Typical example of Hoopy making posts that slide by easily while appearing to be helping.

rescind because after rereading aubrey seems like she would post that stuff naturally as a villager. luco and hoopy also seem like theyre authentically digging. none of rongs posts are wolfy. benny is 99% villager after the whole substitution thing. rilla i hope is a villager

theres not much battling which means we probably havent really pressed a wolf. keith has been the most defensive in the thread so thats wolfy. i could be down with a daven lynch or maybe drew...

benny inspired that post^, not rilla. but im glad you agree!

Gabe goes out of his way to stress that benny is a villager. Here is the crucial question, does he do with a villager or with a fellow wolf? If the wolves were going strongly for getting all the villagers killed and end it in a flawless win (at which so far they've been frighteningly effective) then this is shielding his wolf buddy. He really goes out of his way to cement benny as you can see - does he do this randomly with a villager?

[BennyLaRue]

Gabe goes out of his way to stress that benny is a villager. Here is the crucial question, does he do with a villager or with a fellow wolf? If the wolves were going strongly for getting all the villagers killed and end it in a flawless win (at which so far they've been frighteningly effective) then this is shielding his wolf buddy. He really goes out of his way to cement benny as you can see - does he do this randomly with a villager?

Gabe also stressed on D3 that daven was a villager because of the lack of conversation and on D2 that Aubrey was a villager because of her oscar winning performance. In the very post you mentioned, he rescinded on her plus suggests Luco and rong were villagery. Gabe is probably the second smartest person in the game. He knows how to mislead, how to cover his tracks.

I'm a vocal player and Gabe knows that. When did Gabe post the 99% thing? After I came out swinging on Aubrey and Luco and after I said I hadn't seen anything wolfy from Gabe. He was using my vocal play to his advantage. Guys, he's a world class poker player. He knows how to take advantage of situations as they unfold in front of him without forcing anything.

jv, why are you content to name bigred a villager?

[flomo]

Snowboarded today!

what is going on?

I'm now going to go for my MVP push.

Who wants to be runner-up?

and I'm drunk

[flomo]

lynch jackvance
i dont buy the whole mason thing. no one questioned it so its the best possible wolf play. if no one challenges JV + flomo, then the play they executed get the wolf gang a win everytime

And luco is not the seer?



hi Benny,
how is it going?

[BennyLaRue]

I'm nursing along my alcoholism, so I got that going for me...which is nice.

[gabe]

Done a quick read-through of the thread

introducing your magnum opus while betraying your lack of thoroughness... seems like a dissonance there that it is unquestionably wolfy!!!

[gabe]

benny told me i was smart so i tried to use some rich vocabulary^

[gabe]

And luco is not the seer?

i know people are really pushing this... but dude i just dont buy it

[Hoopy]

daven and bigred are leading candidates. gator keith hoopy are all tier 2 imo

I'm thinking that gabe decided to attack his fellow wolf bigred to try and gain separation.

the chip thing is a pretty good reason for benny to not be a wolf. but the mod knows this, and wouldnt want to have a confirmed villager from the start, so maybe benny got tapped to be a wolf...

this is ridiculous. if you are a bad guy then trusting you tomorrow will make the village lose

Attacking benny with weak reasoning.

this is most crucial time of the game and no one is posting. daven is probably not a wolf or the wolves would have directed people to someone else. i think both the last 2 lynches were lazy so dont make this one of those

lynch bigred

Gabe. I say this with love. And bourbon. But you have to be fucking stupid to lynch me if you're not a wolf.

Weird phrasing......

Bigred

Cause gabe said so.

LOL drew.

lynch gabe

luco said so and we need a sure thing

We've got all day to discuss the game. Lets not give the wolves a quick night.