[2NL] A couple of hands

[Circuits]

Inspired by recent conversations on IRC with spoonitnow and a few others, I've posted a couple of hands below for analysis. I've adopted the approach suggested by this strategy article and chosen continuation betting as a topic to study in as much depth as possible.

Hand 1

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

BB ($2.19)
UTG ($0.88)
UTG+1 ($0.98)
MP1 ($3.12)
MP2 ($2)
CO ($4.91)
Hero (Button) ($2)
SB ($1.31)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.19) 2, A, 5 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.12, UTG+1 raises to $0.90 (All-In), Hero ?


Absolutely no reads or statistics on villain. I feel I can discount a fair portion of big hands by his limp.

PF his range probably consists of something like 22-99, low to mid Ax, a selection of K9 type cards and a few suited (and unsuited) connectors. I feel my ATs is beating his range quite comfortably. Equilab reports equity of around 63%.

I'm not sure what to think of the flop. His short stack and earlier limp suggests he doesn't know what he's doing, but then again...the check-raise might mean he really does have something. Unsure of how to analyse this.

• How's my c-bet sizing?
• How should I go about analysing his play?

Hand 2

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

UTG+1 ($2)
MP1 ($0.85)
MP2 ($2.03)
CO ($2.08)
Hero (Button) ($2)
SB ($0.70)
BB ($1.07)
UTG ($2.62)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, A
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, 1 fold, BB calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.17) 7, 6, 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.10



Villain is 21/6 over 64 hands. I feel his range PF would be similar to that of villain in previous hand - pairs, a selection of suited connectors, broadway cards and Ax, Kx type hands. Again, I think I'm beating his range (~60%).

I'm betting for value and therefore a smaller c-bet is going to be beneficial: I want him to call. With that in mind, how's the sizing?

Thoughts and criticisms welcome. I'm trying to get a feel for whether my thought process is generally on the right track, whether I'm seriously overestimating/underestimating players at the microstakes and how I can improve my approach to continuation betting.

[Savy]

Hand 1 - pre is completely fine, arguably might want to make it a little bigger but 4bb is ok with a limper. I don't really play FR so I don't know what people limp with but I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of SC and PP type hands.

Flop if you're going to put him on a range of a range that you have, you want to be asking how villain willl react with his range to your action and how bet sizing might alter that reaction. One tip is that when people are going to call a bet at the micros they will very likely call that bet regardless of the sizing so you may want to c-bet a little bigger as a standard against the population and alter as you get reads.

When he raises you can expect to see a lot of sets, two pairs and maybe even 34. It also wouldn't surprise me massively to see people do this with strong aces because they think they are trapping you somehow. You definitely don't want to be clicking call when you only have TP w/very average kicker.

Try and work out how much equity you need to call and what ranges you have that equity against.

Hand 2 - Sizing same as what's regarded as last hand. You also aren't really betting for value. What worse hands do you expect to call your bet and why?

This is the type of board that is probably one of the very few boards we don't want to be c-betting. Lots of hands that beat us in villains range and lots of draws and stuff that has a lot of equity against us that will also call. As we aren't getting a huge amount of folds and there aren't a huge amount of turn cards that do us any favours I'm probably just looking to check and a lot of the time expecting to see showdown with the idea to x/f a lot of turn and rivers when bet into.

[Circuits]

Hand 1

Try and work out how much equity you need to call and what ranges you have that equity against.

This calculation may be way off, so bear with me.

So it's a $1.21 pot, $0.90 to call.

Against his range (say, 99-22,A9s-A2s,KTs-K9s,Q9s+,JTs,ATo-A7o,KJo-K9o,Q9o+,JTo) I have 63% equity.

EV of winning = ($0.19 + $0.12 + $0.90) * 0.63
= $1.21 * 0.63
= $0.76

EV of losing = -$0.90 * 0.37
-$0.33

EV of calling = EV of winning + EV of losing
= $0.76 + $-0.33
= $0.43

So according to that, a call would net me $0.43 on average (if the calculations are correct and the range I've given him is anywhere near accurate).


Hand 2:

What worse hands do you expect to call your bet and why?

You know, I've just sat here for 10 minutes thinking about this. I'm not really sure why, now.

I would say there are a few worse hands in his range - low pairs, things like A8, KJ and KT. But I see now that quite a lot of his range does contain hands that lend themselves well to a draw.

[Savy]

w/respect to irc chat

x is our equity
(1-x) is how much we lose (1 - chance we win)
EV of winning = ($0.19 + $0.12 + $0.90) * x
= $1.21 * x
= 1.21x

EV of losing = -$0.78 * (1-x)
= 0.78x - 0.78

EV of calling = EV of winning + EV of losing
= 1.21x + 0.78x - 0.78

When EV = 0 we break even with our call so to find the break even equity needed we let EV of calling = 0

0 = 1.21x + 0.78x - 0.78
0.78 = 1.99x
x = 0.78 / 1.99
x = 39.2% (rounded up)

What we can see here though is that to work out our b/e equity needed to make a final call (i.e. all in or last to act on river) we can do bet/(bet+pot)

Where bet is the amount we have to call and pot is the money in the pot before we call.

[spoonitnow]

Glad to see you putting this work in. Keep it up!