Werewolf: To The Edge

[daven]

I can flip to a Daven lynch. He's low posting with zero content (all star mode) like me. Probably a liability. Like me!

i've been in watch and learn and evolve mode
i'll start posting cats next, that oughta confuse people

[OngBonga]

That change of vote makes little sense daven... last I heard you were wolfreading dan and ubermex... well why you dumping dan, who was in the lead, for ubermex, putting me level with dan? That vote DRCEREASES the chance of one of your wolf reads getting lynched.

[OngBonga]

And I'm a good vig shot? wtf?

What's your position on dan right now? Why suddenly have you gone from voting dan to suggesting vig shoots the person screaming that dan is a wolf?

[daven]

That change of vote makes little sense daven... last I heard you were wolfreading dan and ubermex... well why you dumping dan, who was in the lead, for ubermex, putting me level with dan? That vote DRCEREASES the chance of one of your wolf reads getting lynched.

views change.
I've looked at day 1 closely, in the knowledge that gator was a villager. I see nothing that makes me think that dhubermex is a villager, but i saw some things that made me think hoopy is likely wolf with dhuber. And i think you're a good vig shot cos shooting the turncoat would be awesome.
Some day 1 vote count stuff incoming.
I think that dhubermex and hoopy are the wolves and you're the turncoat.

[daven]

ong, come lynch dhubermex with me - unless you think that gator's day 1 reads are dirt.

[daven]

disclaimer - i know that as a wolf i've done votecount analysis purporting to be a villager. Whatever. Read and make up your minds for yourselves:

Day 1 votes:

Keith → SDM (post 41)
Ong → Keith (post 42)
Wuf → Gabe (post 44)
Ong → Wuf (45)
Keith → rescind SDM, lynch Wuf (48) (Gabe – 1, Wuf - 2)
bigred → gator (56)
dave → wuf (57)
gabe → daven (60)
dhubermex → wuf (62) (gabe – 1, daven – 1, Wuf – 3, Gator - 1)
gator → dhubermex (68)
wuf → dhubermex (69)
ong → gator (84) (wuf – 3 gator – 1, daven – 1, dhubermex - 2)
Sdm → gator (88)
ong → rescind (92)
jv → dhubermex (97) (wuf – 3, gator – 1, daven – 1, dhubermex - 3)
hoopy – daven (100)


hoopy post 99 does a vote count, but doesn't id who is voting for whom. He miscounts votes on dhubermex and gator – I think. That can happen though I guess. I think as a villager he's more likely to include the list of voters cos it's useful intel. He doesn't address any of gator's strong arguments for Dhubermex = wolf, makes it look like Dhubermex has more votes than he really does, then starts another wagon by voting to lynch me with no reasoning, he knows that i'm usually a pretty easy wagon to get rolling and I was pretty much MIA. Yeah. Hoopy looks wolf. With Dhubermex.


Rong – gator (101)
(wuf – 3, gator – 2, daven – 2, dhubermex - 3)
gabe – gator (103)
ong – wuf (104)
eric – gator (122)
(wuf – 4, gator – 5, daven – 1, dhubermex – 3) as per below from 'rilla


There's a gator pile-on. Gabe is a known villager here. Ong points out that a gator lynch might be sub-optimal and votes for wuf rather than dhuber, why is that? obviously a dhuber lynch is going to be more likely late day than a lynch of an active wuf.


Night:

jackvance - dhubermex
hoopy - daven
dhubermex - wuf
gatorjh - dhubermex
keith - wuf
sdm - gator
wufwugy - dhubermex
ongbonga - wuf
gabe - gator
bigred - gator
eric - gator
rong - gator
daven - wuf

[OngBonga]

ong, come lynch dhubermex with me - unless you think that gator's day 1 reads are dirt.

My problem is I don't trust you. Your vanilla claim is horrible. Plus I think this is hoopy's villager game, so even if I accept you as villager, I'm having a hard time accepting your reads. So no, I won't lynch the noob on your say so.

And to answer your question - I voted for wuf over ubermex because a) ubermex is new, and b) I had no read on him, whereas wuf I felt was wolfy.

[Keith]

views change.
I've looked at day 1 closely, in the knowledge that gator was a villager. I see nothing that makes me think that dhubermex is a villager, but i saw some things that made me think hoopy is likely wolf with dhuber. And i think you're a good vig shot cos shooting the turncoat would be awesome.
Some day 1 vote count stuff incoming.
I think that dhubermex and hoopy are the wolves and you're the turncoat.

would those things you saw be my posts #79 and #103 ish where i said that hoopy and huber could be the wolves

[daven]

would those things you saw be my posts #79 and #103 ish where i said that hoopy and huber could be the wolves

gator's read that dhubermex is wolf was based on solid reasoning - none of that has been rebutted by anyone.
So, i looked at things based on a premise that dhubermex is a wolf, and, yep, your post highlighted some stuff that made hoopy look like his partner in pacifism, and as per my post above, hoopy's vote-count then vote in posts 99 and 100 also look like wolf-actions in that context

[daven]

My problem is I don't trust you.

fair enough.

Your vanilla claim is horrible.

lol, if you say so.

Plus I think this is hoopy's villager game, so even if I accept you as villager, I'm having a hard time accepting your reads.

if you say so..

So no, I won't lynch the noob on your say so.

how about based on the reads of a confirmed villager who is also a pretty good hunter of wolves?
it seems really unlike you to be so scared to lynch someone. why is that?

post 68 from gator

These two posts don't sit well with me. It's like he is trying too much at times to look like a newbie, but there is evidence that he isn't.

In the first one he makes sure to mention that this is his first time playing online yet then follows with "wolfish" posts. Can anyone remember being able to pick out a wolfish post in your first game?




Two things stand out in this one. First he says he reviewed another game (which should have clearly shown him the game mechanics) yet he wonders if the goal is to get to a lynch consensus.

Secondly his "How in the world are we supposed to draw conclusions on the player posts in this thread?" goes directly against this previous comment about "wolfish posts"



I think the newbie rolled wolf in his first game and want to lynch Mr. Mex

post 94, again attacking dhubermex:

Another interesting post. Since when does a newbie NOT defend themself when attacked?

[OngBonga]

it seems really unlike you to be so scared to lynch someone. why is that?

Scared? Yeah, I'm actually frightened.

Daven, it's unlike you to try and bully people into sheeping you. You're pointing to gator's d1 read like I should be awestruck, and using language like "scared", like I'm gonna go "I'm not scared" and vote him or something. I want to lynch dan. I think dan is a wolf. Why should I let dan off the hook? Because gator said mex is a wolf? Gator might be a good villager and all, but he'll be the first to admit that he can be wrong, especially on d1. Or maybe I'm wrong. I don't know and I don't care. I'll lynch my wolf reads, not gators.

[Hoopy]

hoopy post 99 does a vote count, but doesn't id who is voting for whom. He miscounts votes on dhubermex and gator – I think. That can happen though I guess. I think as a villager he's more likely to include the list of voters cos it's useful intel. He doesn't address any of gator's strong arguments for Dhubermex = wolf, makes it look like Dhubermex has more votes than he really does, then starts another wagon by voting to lynch me with no reasoning, he knows that i'm usually a pretty easy wagon to get rolling and I was pretty much MIA. Yeah. Hoopy looks wolf. With Dhubermex.

I didn't have much time right then so did a quick VC and asked people to doublecheck. But don't you think that if I was a wolf with huber that I'd make sure to get his count exactly right.

Are you an easy wagon to get going? Because I've had my vote on you for ages yet zilch has happened.

rescind daven

[Hoopy]

7 hours to go I think.

Voting

rong - 2 (ong, hubermex)
ong - 2 (wuf, rong)
hubermex - 1 (daven)
SDM - 1 (keith)
Hoopy - 1 (SDM)

No vote (Hoopy, Eric, bigred, JV)

[Eric]

i've been in watch and learn and evolve mode

Me too.

[Hoopy]

lynch hubermex because he's gone to ground.

I don't find ong or rong very wolfy right now.

Me too.

Who do you think is wolfy? What do you think of the game so far?

[Eric]

Who do you think is wolfy? What do you think of the game so far?

Not sure, onga keeps talking about daven - maybe daven is wolfy?


lynch daven


The game is confusing but fun. I think we should do additional games like this so ftr forum members have more opportunities to interact.

[a500lbgorilla]

Let's say 3 more hours.

All votes count until I close the thread.

It's like soccer. No one knows exactly when 'cept the guy with the whistle.

[jackvance]

lynch mex

[Keith]

lynch mex

[bigred]

Meh, I'll follow everyone and get on the mex bandwagon. He was my most suspicious anyway.

It's tough to contribute on weekends.

[a500lbgorilla]

Night

[a500lbgorilla]

jackvance - dhmex
hoopy - dhmex
dhubermex - rong
keith - dhmex
sdm - Hoopy
wufwugy - ong
ongbonga - rong
bigred - dhmex
eric - daven
rong - ong
daven - dhmex

PM me if you see an error.

[a500lbgorilla]

"Fuck you, buddy!"

"Hey, fuck You, buddy!"

Dhubermex asks, "Guys, what's going on with those two?"

"OngBong and Big Dong Rong are fuming at one another."

"We're laying bets on which one's gonna kill the other," Hoopy smirks.

Ong is looking venomous. Rong is contorting his face into a mask of frustrated indignation.

"Pass the popcorn over here."

In his best David Attenborough Wufwugy casts, "And here we see two human males in competition for supremacy. Of what? Neither is sure. But their deep red faces display the conviction of their beliefs and the confidence in their victory..."

"How about Fuck You!"

"Fuck. You."

"Well this just isn't right!" Dhubermex waltz over to the bickering duo intent on letting cooler heads prevail. As he lays his hand on Ong's shoulder, Ong dips down out of the way of rong's furious haymaker. Rong's fist impacts Dhubermex's face with a solid crunch.


Dhubermex falls down dead. A tiny insignia, the hippie peace sign, rolls out his shirt pocket.



Night 2

jackvance
hoopy
keith
sdm
wufwugy
ongbonga
bigred
eric
rong
daven


11 Players
1 Wolves
1 Turncoat
1 Seer
1 Angel
1 Vigilante
5 Villagers

GatorJH, lynched day 1
gabe, eaten night 1
dhubermex, lynched day 2

Specials with the PMs. 24 hours.

[a500lbgorilla]

Since humanity's motivation gave up to a deep puff of smoke, the study of science and technology has become the province of a church believing them to be true miracles of God.

"Oh, it's you." Jackvance is startled but quickly returns to his work. "See here!" He extends an open palm holding a double A battery.

"Hmm?"

"It's a nanobot. I... uh... haven't perfected nanobatteries, but the machinery itself is quite small!"

"Mmhmm..."

"And over here, I've perfected a 3-d printer that takes waste lumber and turns it into sawdust!" He pulls violently on the cord of a woodchipper that roars to life.

Shove, BZZZZZZZZZ, use your imagination.


Jackvance, the angel, is now dead.



Day 3

hoopy
keith
sdm
wufwugy
ongbonga
bigred
eric
rong
daven


9 Players
1 Wolves
1 Turncoat
1 Seer
1 Vigilante
5 Villagers

GatorJH, lynched day 1
gabe, eaten night 1
dhubermex, lynched day 2
jackvance, eaten night 2

5 votes to lynch

[OngBonga]

I'm surprised I didn't get vig'd. Good chance he was blocked, not sure why vig would hold fire again.

I had a scan after the death scene. Wuf and daven are certainly not ubermex's buddy.

As for dan, there's reason to think that ubermex being wolf looks good for dan, but I'm not so sure about that as I am wuf and daven.

I'll have to reassess hoopy now, there's a few people who said hoopy and mex were the wolves iirc, so I might have to accept hoops has fooled me so far.

[daven]

Eric - have you played FTR werewolf before?

Lynch Rong

[OngBonga]

#32 mex opens, he mentions me and wuf, me in the context of turncoat and wuf he calls wolfy already
#62 mex votes for wuf

It's entirely possible that mex has been told by his buddy that I tend to spew, and that following my lead onto a villager would be a solid noob wolf move, as inevitably the whole lynch will revolve around ong, giving him cover.

Also, in #62, he responds to rong, saying he's played once before blah blah... weird thing about this is it was hoopy who asked him, not rong. Not even sure if that's relevant.

#68, gator soulreads ubermex.
#69, quick as anything, wuf is on board - wuf is not ubermex's buddy, not in a million years.
#70, wuf picks up on a language tell for mex... it's thin but shows he's looking hard
#71, this is interesting... dan turns the screw on wuf here, when wuf and gator are turning the screw on mex
#79, keith links hoopy to mex
#85, mex emphasising that he doesn't like wuf
#101, dan now turns on gator, so now in a short space of time he's attacked the two people proving themselves to be a threat to mex
#102, jack explains why competing wagon theory is bad news
#171, this is where the idea of mex-dan wolves becomes less likely, with mex saying he can lynch dan.
#176, now mex votes for dan, linking him to me. Would he not go for me here if he's buddies with dan?
#185, aha here dan makes it clear that logically mex should swing for me first out of the two... mex could be planning to do just that, and when I flip villager that "theory" of mex's is rubbished.

Ok that brings me to last page.

Hoopy's reluctant vote for mex is sketch.

It's either hoopy or dan. Eric or bigred can't be ruled out.

I'll go with my gut and say it's dan, the interaction between dan and mex that I thought looked good for him doesn't upon analysis.

lynch rong

[Hoopy]

I'm surprised I didn't get vig'd. Good chance he was blocked, not sure why vig would hold fire again.

I had a scan after the death scene. Wuf and daven are certainly not ubermex's buddy.

As for dan, there's reason to think that ubermex being wolf looks good for dan, but I'm not so sure about that as I am wuf and daven.

I'll have to reassess hoopy now, there's a few people who said hoopy and mex were the wolves iirc, so I might have to accept hoops has fooled me so far.

We're in a decent spot right now, I need to look at the thread tomorrow morning.

[Hoopy]

My initial thought is that Eric is clear. Based on the night kills I don't think mex+eric would know that both gabe and jv are good players. Both kills have a special hunting vibe as well.

[wufwugy]

Great job on gatting Ubermux. I thought he was the seer. His stance switch on me on Day 2 was a little stark and with poor explanation, which I thought meant I was his n1 lookup. Also his asking for help on how to spot wolves just did not seem like something he would say ITT instead of in the wolfchat, but it did suggest he had an important role.

JV is a pretty big loss. He was playing an extremely tight, no bullshit game

Kudos to Gator for catching Uburmux on d1. People say he's only good at wolfing. That ain't true. Dude is sick everywhere

[OngBonga]

We're in a decent spot right now, I need to look at the thread tomorrow morning.

I'll do x tomorrow is something I often find myself saying as a wolf.

Although I like your reason for clearing eric, this gives me a little more confidence in you.

[wufwugy]

lynch rong

[cali61]

How does 1 become a werewolf?

[wufwugy]

How does 1 become a werewolf?

GOT HIM

[Keith]

facing a dilemma here about whether to cali's post and wufs reply to the signup thread or whether to leave it to rilla.

[Keith]

hoopys vote above looks suspicious to me . two leaders being pointed at as possible wolves in huber and wuf and he plumps for daven with no explanation, that just doesn't look right to me.

I don't think wuf is wolfin, huber is a question mark.

daven hasn't helped so far.

don't think much of the reasoning for choosing daven in the knowledge that mex is now the confirmed wolf.you went out of your way to distance yourself from mex, yet you don't want to commit youurself either way on him. Do you remember this post?

I've seen Eric around before, but who's dhubermex?

Probably a wolf!

ah you'll say ...you voted to lynch huber..... well if you were the wolf team and linked together you need to let the turncoat know who he has to reach out to to give the wolves a chance of winning.

lynch hoopy

[daven]

I don't think a new wolf says stuff like this, his den partner would tell him that it means nothing.
.

^post 206, nice defence of the dead wolf imo

[daven]

I'm on the road and I've never played the game before - sorry about the lack of participation. As for the gator lynch choice, I saw other people calling him out and it gave me a chance to have all the whiskey to myself.

eric had already answered my question..

[OngBonga]

I would imagine the seer and vig can lock this between them by claiming. We already have wuf, daven and eric practically cleared, we could potentially have seer, vig and two villagers cleared too. The last wolf has certainly got a lot of bullets to dodge, that's for sure.

rescind

Let's wait for everyone to post. I think we should get a plan together instead of just speed lynching one of dan or hoopy.

[daven]

Seer - Do Not Out! There is no angel to protect you...
Vig - Do not out! the turncoat can block you if they're still not a wolf.

I would imagine the seer and vig can lock this between them by claiming. We already have wuf, daven and eric practically cleared, we could potentially have seer, vig and two villagers cleared too. The last wolf has certainly got a lot of bullets to dodge, that's for sure.

rescind

Let's wait for everyone to post. I think we should get a plan together instead of just speed lynching one of dan or hoopy.

this plan sounds like a desperate turncoat wanting to find out who the remaining wolf is so he can have a chance of winning...

Rescind Rong,
Lynch Ong

[daven]

actually, do what you think is right. But don't be making your decision on what Ong (or any other player I guess) states is the best plan.
Ong, I'm suspicious that you are encouraging players to out without going through and doing the situation analysis first.
It's most likely there is one wolf left + one turncoat, slight chance of the turncoat already being a wolf.
If seer has found a wolf and we lynch the wolf now then we most likely win there and then.

also, i think the wolves have been nomming likely seer lookups at night rather than specifically special-hunting.
Gabe and JV are both very likely seer lookups, and they've been the kills...

[daven]

@ Rilla, will we know from the text if the turncoat has reached out to a wolf and become a vanilla wolf?

[OngBonga]

I'm encouraging the seer to consider his options. I think we've won.

And if I were the turncoat, well you'd be walking into my brilliant plan of lynching me to protect the wolf for another day. Brilliant until I point that out of course. I'm not the turncoat, and even if you don't believe me you should still try to lynch the wolf because the turncoat loses if the wolf dies.

[OngBonga]

Vig should shoot me tonight. Please shoot me tonight. I'm not the seer. I'm on holiday from friday, I'm an unknown, I need to be dealt with.

Vig shoot me tonight.

Seer, consider your options. If you have two clears, then it might not be worth the risk gambling that info.

[OngBonga]

Vig - Do not out! the turncoat can block you if they're still not a wolf.

If the turncoat blocks the vig, then he remains a villager for another day. That's good, not bad.

[OngBonga]

@ Rilla, will we know from the text if the turncoat has reached out to a wolf and become a vanilla wolf?

It seems so obvious to me. It says turncoat on today's summary. That means he's a turncoat, not a wolf.

[StillDeadMoney]

I would imagine the seer and vig can lock this between them by claiming. We already have wuf, daven and eric practically cleared, we could potentially have seer, vig and two villagers cleared too. The last wolf has certainly got a lot of bullets to dodge, that's for sure.

Remember last time you tried to do this and nobody believed you because the math didn't add up? Only this time it's even worse because of the turncoat who would have an easier time finding the last wolf. Unless of course the turncoat decides to stay a villager and win since there's only one wolf left. I believe you're a villager since a wolf would think about what they did last game and not make the same mistake twice.


Bigred is posting a lot more than ever. Why does he care so much about this game? Unless he's a wolf and has something to prove. Hoopy is still posting a lot more than normal. daven is looking suspicious as hell and seems awfully aggressive. I like these three as my probable wolf or turncoat suspects.

i laughed why i read this. The most useless villager ever to have played comes out with that theory.Its not even going to help you as a wolf as everyone is happy to see you dead.

Keith is playing his standard "SDM must die" game, which really doesn't tell us anything.


There's a bandwagon on rong so I am going to hop on. I think his lynch will be very informative, a win-win for the village. If he turns up villager then I think we need to look at the suspects I listed above.

lynch rong

[StillDeadMoney]

Vig should shoot me tonight. Please shoot me tonight. I'm not the seer. I'm on holiday from friday, I'm an unknown, I need to be dealt with.

Every time I've seen a player beg to be shot by the vig, they ended up being a villager. This combined with your days-long arguments with wuf lead me to believe that neither of you two could be the last wolf.

[OngBonga]

Of course the numbers didn't add up last time. I was a wolf talking out of my arse. This time I'm not.

[StillDeadMoney]

Of course the numbers didn't add up last time. I was a wolf talking out of my arse. This time I'm not.

Show me how the numbers make sense now.

[OngBonga]

Best case scenario is 7 of 9 cleared...

Worst case scenario, seer has been looking at vig, or jack etc. But with vig/seer/eric/daven/wuf we still have five... if both vig and seer are in this group and the seer can't clear anyone else, well that's your worst case scenario. 3/9 cleared, but that would be ridiculously unlucky. And it's still great shape really, we'd have two lynches and a vig shot for the win I think.

I guess turncoat is likely to counterclaim the seer to throw a spanner in the works. That's what I'd do if I were turncoat. In fact I'd probably try and get the first claim in. God damn I wish I was the turncoat.

Today is gonna be fun. I vote for a massclaim.

[daven]

Here's a message to the vig:
if you fired a shot last night and you weren't shooting JV then there are two options.
1 = JV protected your target (assuming that his action would still hold given order of night ops below); or
2 = the turncoat knows who you are.

this has pretty clear implications

Order of night ops is Turncoat > Angel > Seer > Vig > Wolves

[daven]

Today is gonna be fun. I vote for a massclaim.

I vote against a massclaim today. Too easy for the wolf and turncoat to play that situation perfectly imo.

[Hoopy]

don't think much of the reasoning for choosing daven in the knowledge that mex is now the confirmed wolf.you went out of your way to distance yourself from mex, yet you don't want to commit youurself either way on him. Do you remember this post?

I don't see how I was distancing myself from him, he was unknown so I had no baseline on how he played.

ah you'll say ...you voted to lynch huber..... well if you were the wolf team and linked together you need to let the turncoat know who he has to reach out to to give the wolves a chance of winning.

I was second on huber's wagon yesterday when the votes were spread everywhere. So what you're saying is that I threw my own teammate under the bus to get the turncoats attention? That doesn't make sense.

[Hoopy]

I wonder if huber made the mistake of ignoring his teammate entirely in the game thread, new wolves sometimes do that.

^post 206, nice defence of the dead wolf imo

That does look bad I'll admit.

[OngBonga]

I don't see how I was distancing myself from him

This feels like one of those pov slips I was talking about earlier. If hoopy is a villager, then he knows he wasn't distancing, and should be more assertive in his language. "I wasn't distancing", not "I don't see how I was distancing".

[OngBonga]

I vote against a massclaim today. Too easy for the wolf and turncoat to play that situation perfectly imo.

The wolf can do nothing but claim vanilla. If he counterclaims a special, then we kill both those claims one after another for the win.

The turncoat is in a better spot, he can try to cast doubt over the seer claim in order to give them hope. But even still, that's as much a problem for the wolf as it is us. How does the wolf know which claim is true? He's in no better position to make that call than we are. And even if he gets it right, well the turncoat will be obvious after the seer in nommed.

A massclaim will very likely lock this today, whereas the seer dying and not sharing what he knows is the best chance the wolf has of winning. If seer has only one lookup, well mabe it's better to stay hidden for another day. That's how I see it.

[OngBonga]

I bet rilla can see with his perfect info that the village have this locked.

We have wuf, daven and eric very unlikely to be wolves. The reason for this is very compelling. Wuf and daven played too much of a role lynching mex, wuf in particular has been a target of mex, and a mex-eric team probably doesn't take out gabe n1 when gabe is quiet and on the gator wagon. That was not a noob kill.

Seer and vig between them need to clear two more people for this to be locked. That's 5/9, over half the village, meaning we can lynch the unknowns faster than the wolf can eat the cleared. If seer isn't wuf/daven/eric and he can clear someone else not wuf/daven/eric, then yeah he should claim today for sure.

[OngBonga]

I kinda wanna massclaim because it's fun. The turncoat should fakeclaim, it's the right thing to do. So it makes for an interesting day. And we'll still win, because we should be able to clear too many people. The fact we can clear wuf/daven/eric is huge. Lynching hoopy/dan and then shooting the other, that probably wins too, but it's dull.

[Hoopy]

Post #238 I did the vote count which had ong and rong on 2 and 3 other people (including mex) on 1.

Immediately afterwards I vote for mex. Now if I'm a wolf then why do that? Keith + others were already going for me based on my link to mex so mex dying puts the spotlight on me. No cover whatsoever.

[Eric]

Eric - have you played FTR werewolf before?

No, this is my first time.

[wufwugy]

rescind rong lynch ong

I hate the massclaim idea. It seems Ong hasn't even thought about the possible scenarios. It could get ugly so easily. As usual, Ong is saying things that aren't helping the village. He's been my #1 baddy for a while now, but nobody agreed with me and I got a little exhausted. But this is too much

We have no idea who the seer has looked up or if they're still alive. If the vig is being blocked, then we have to assume it can happen again. Daven and I are not cleared from the baddy wagon for the Uburmux stuff, and Ong knows this. He has played in several games where the wolves have looked integral in killing another wolf. The point to learn from those is reducing probability of being a baddy, not eliminating it altogether so that we can have a massclaim. Besides, imagine for a second that Daven is the wolf. Doesn't his destruction of Uburmux look like the smartest thing he could have done? He's an unlikely target for the seer or vig, Ubur was very likely to get lynched before the end anyways, so it would be absolute brilliance for Daven to annihilate Ubur like that. I'm not saying he did that, I think he's likely a villager. It takes balls and forethought, but I do think it's possible. I'm surprised Ong doesn't. Actually, I'm not surprised Ong doesn't, because I don't think Ong is being honest. He's been blowing smoke up our asses all game, but is so far nowhere close to getting lynched.

It seems nobody was convinced during Day 2 for why Ong is not playing on the up n up. The new developments, however, are as follows: (1) the massclaim thing, already explained, it's terrible and exactly the kind of thing he'd do as wolf or turncoat. He loves messing around as a baddy, and the massclaim points are very easy to see why they're wrong yet for some reason he hasn't seen that. (2) There's only one poster who vocally didn't want to lynch Uburmux. That was Ong. Daven started the wagon and tried to get Ong to jump on, but Ong said he doesn't like it and then disappeared for the rest of the game day. This isn't incriminating, but it is something that a wolf who sees a wagon on his pal Ubur about to spur off doing. It's subtle, it's not too strong a defense because that gets obvious and Ubur isn't a strong enough player for his partner to need to bend over to keep him around. They could have thought that Ubur might go under and Ong wouldn't do too much to stop it if it happens.

Ong is easily the best candidate for wolf, and sometimes he's the turncoat. If he's a villager then jesus christ he needs to reevaluate his game. He's not playing like a villager, not making points that help the village. Maybe I'm so used to seeing him play wolf (he's gotten the role in most of my mods), that I don't see how he also does this as a villager. But whatever, if it walks like a wolf and talks like a wolf.

[rong]

Playing catch up.

[rong]

My money is on Daven for last wolf and Ong for turncoat.

[rong]

My initial thought is that Eric is clear. Based on the night kills I don't think mex+eric would know that both gabe and jv are good players. Both kills have a special hunting vibe as well.

I concur, Eric unlikely to be a wolf, does not discount turncoat though.

[rong]

#32 mex opens, he mentions me and wuf, me in the context of turncoat and wuf he calls wolfy already
#62 mex votes for wuf

It's entirely possible that mex has been told by his buddy that I tend to spew, and that following my lead onto a villager would be a solid noob wolf move, as inevitably the whole lynch will revolve around ong, giving him cover.

Also, in #62, he responds to rong, saying he's played once before blah blah... weird thing about this is it was hoopy who asked him, not rong. Not even sure if that's relevant.

#68, gator soulreads ubermex.
#69, quick as anything, wuf is on board - wuf is not ubermex's buddy, not in a million years.
#70, wuf picks up on a language tell for mex... it's thin but shows he's looking hard
#71, this is interesting... dan turns the screw on wuf here, when wuf and gator are turning the screw on mex
#79, keith links hoopy to mex
#85, mex emphasising that he doesn't like wuf
#101, dan now turns on gator, so now in a short space of time he's attacked the two people proving themselves to be a threat to mex
#102, jack explains why competing wagon theory is bad news
#171, this is where the idea of mex-dan wolves becomes less likely, with mex saying he can lynch dan.
#176, now mex votes for dan, linking him to me. Would he not go for me here if he's buddies with dan?
#185, aha here dan makes it clear that logically mex should swing for me first out of the two... mex could be planning to do just that, and when I flip villager that "theory" of mex's is rubbished.

Ok that brings me to last page.

Hoopy's reluctant vote for mex is sketch.

It's either hoopy or dan. Eric or bigred can't be ruled out.

I'll go with my gut and say it's dan, the interaction between dan and mex that I thought looked good for him doesn't upon analysis.

lynch rong

I can't be bothered to argue with right now, I've lost my interwebzrage. But one thing, your analysis is skewed by your preconceptions and your language demonstrates this quite clearly, which means your conclusions are worthless.

[rong]

I'll do x tomorrow is something I often find myself saying as a wolf.

I find the complete opposite, though I've seen plenty of people make that same connection.

[rong]

Originally Posted by Hoopy
"I don't think a new wolf says stuff like this, his den partner would tell him that it means nothing."

^post 206, nice defence of the dead wolf imo

I think that's a legit statement though. I don't find that to be wolfy.

[rong]

Unless the seer is Wuf I find it incredibly unlikely he has two look ups, given those killed off and the added factor of the potential role block.

I wouldn't suggest outing at this point.

[rong]

Vig should shoot me tonight. Please shoot me tonight. I'm not the seer. I'm on holiday from friday, I'm an unknown, I need to be dealt with.

Vig shoot me tonight.

Seer, consider your options. If you have two clears, then it might not be worth the risk gambling that info.

This is rather unwolflike though.

[rong]

And I really don't buy those POV slips Ong keeps on about. I mean if you were really torn between two people and then that suddenly got noticed I could understand that being the thing that tips you one way over the other, but it really doesn't make a lot of sense and in general I'm disregarding it.

[rong]

Post #238 I did the vote count which had ong and rong on 2 and 3 other people (including mex) on 1.

Immediately afterwards I vote for mex. Now if I'm a wolf then why do that? Keith + others were already going for me based on my link to mex so mex dying puts the spotlight on me. No cover whatsoever.

I agree with this. If Hoopy is a wolf then this is FPS which didn't seem necessary. It's the kinda thing I could see Ong doing that's defo his style and it can give you great cover down the line, but I find it unlikely that Hoopy does that here.

[rong]

lynch Ong

[rong]

This is where I stand at the moment.

hoopy - not wolf, possible TC (Due to vote on Ubermax)
keith - unknown
sdm - unknown
wufwugy - not wolf, possible TC (Due to attack on Ubermax, still could be wolf but unlikely)
ongbonga - likely turncoat
bigred - unknown
eric - not wolf, possible TC (Due to night kill choices)
rong - villager
daven - likely wolf - (dropping in lynches with no real reason, interaction with Hoopy and Aubermax has me pinning him as wolf)

[Eric]

lynch Ong

It's hard to argue with rong after he made 12 posts in a row.