Werewolf: To The Edge

[StillDeadMoney]

eric - not wolf, possible TC (Due to night kill choices)

This is a really good catch in my opinion. The choice of wolf kills points to a veteran.


I still think lynching one of bigred, hoopy, or daven is a better idea, since the rong bandwagon collapsed.

Besides, imagine for a second that Daven is the wolf. Doesn't his destruction of Uburmux look like the smartest thing he could have done? He's an unlikely target for the seer or vig, Ubur was very likely to get lynched before the end anyways, so it would be absolute brilliance for Daven to annihilate Ubur like that. I'm not saying he did that, I think he's likely a villager. It takes balls and forethought, but I do think it's possible. I'm surprised Ong doesn't. Actually, I'm not surprised Ong doesn't, because I don't think Ong is being honest. He's been blowing smoke up our asses all game, but is so far nowhere close to getting lynched.

I'm going to go along with this... you better not be wrong wuf...


lynch ong

[rong]

I think 12 could be a new record.

[a500lbgorilla]

Shut your bitch-holes

[a500lbgorilla]

@ Rilla, will we know from the text if the turncoat has reached out to a wolf and become a vanilla wolf?

I suppose that depends on your reading comprehension.

[a500lbgorilla]

hoopy -
keith - hoopy
sdm - ong
wufwugy - ong
ongbonga -
bigred -
eric - ong
rong - ong
daven - ong

Vote early and often, folks. The game is lame if you don't participate.

PM if you see an error.

[a500lbgorilla]

Also, I take it back. All of your bitch-holes were sealed quite shut.

[a500lbgorilla]

The mission has clearly lost all focus. The entire crew is bickering incoherently at one another. The lightest curiosity attracts inordinate suspicion. No one has so much as entered the command module for fear of being labeled a saboteur. Each member of the crew, believing solitude to be his only respite, are scattered to the many corners of ship. The hum and ring of onboard systems softly blanket the air.

Suddenly alarms ring throughout the ship.

"WARNING. UNAUTHORIZED BOARDING DETECTED. WARNING."

A short, squat man with a bulldog looking face emerges from the airlock.

"How does 1 become a werewolf?"

"Who the!" Ong storms. "Let's go John Paul Jones!" he snarls as he grabs the newcomer by the collar and tosses him back into the airlock. As he wheels around to enter the commands to eject, SDM, Eric, Rong, Wufwugy, and Daven put five hands on his back and shove him through as well. Such teamwork against a backdrop of division is a warming scene. It really makes you feel like this crew is going to make it after all.

At least for one more day.


OngBonga, a villager, is ejected into space like so much waste before him.



Day 3

hoopy
keith
sdm
wufwugy
ongbonga
bigred
eric
rong
daven


8 Players
1 Wolves
1 Turncoat
1 Seer
1 Vigilante
4 Villagers

GatorJH, lynched day 1
gabe, eaten night 1
dhubermex, lynched day 2
jackvance, eaten night 2
OngBonga, lynched day 3

Get in with those PMs, guys. 24 hours. Night 3!

[a500lbgorilla]

Rong stumbles through the entryway to Gator's stash of micro-aged space whiskey. Hiccuping, "He wasch... he was my foil." The death of OngBonga hit him hard. Without that angry pissant to focus his ire, Rong is having difficulty finding himself. The, like, 4 hours since his death have been the worst of his life.

Leaning his forehead against the airlock that loosed the loudest, dumbest, most obnoxious and incoherent... ly beautiful man space has ever known, Rong weeps openly until he slumps over asleep.

A mysterious figure lifts his limp body into his arms. The airlock slowly slides open and the mysterious figure places Rong on the floor inside. As the inner set closes, the outerdoors open, and a smile breaks across Rong's peaceful face as he dreams of happier times. Also, he pisses himself.

Rong, a villager, drifts into space.



Day 4

hoopy
keith
sdm
wufwugy
bigred
baudib
daven


7 Players
1 Wolves
1 Turncoat
1 Seer
1 Vigilante
3 Villagers

GatorJH, lynched day 1
gabe, eaten night 1
dhubermex, lynched day 2
jackvance, eaten night 2
OngBonga, lynched day 3
Rong, eaten night 3

4 votes!

[a500lbgorilla]

Since this isn't the chattiest group remaining, the day won't end until a majority is reached

[wufwugy]

God I suck

[bigred]

Ugh. I'm really sorry for my lack of participation guys. I just kicked off a new project and have been working from 7am to when I finally fall asleep on my keyboard. We gotta find this final wolf.

[boysingh]

Ugh. I'm really sorry for my lack of participation guys. I just kicked off a new project and have been working from 7am to when I finally fall asleep on my keyboard. We gotta find this final wolf.

Hmm, goodluck with your project, hoping all the best for you..

Forum Manager Edit: Official in-game Werewolf threads are exclusive to current contestants still in the competition. Please refrain from posting in this thread going forward, as it could potentially provoke a reply that affects game play.

For additional information on our Werewolf games, please view and post in the following thread.

I want to play but never know when the games are???

Thank you and welcome to the FTR boards.

[StillDeadMoney]

Before I waste too much time doing the math to see if a massclaim can possibly make sense, I have a question for the almighty rilla:

Do the wolves get a nom on the night that the turncoat converts but the last remaining pre-conversion wolf gets shot? Since the vig acts before the wolves, the wolf that sent in the kill request will be dead. I need to know if the turncoat doesn't perform a kill because he was busy transforming or if the kill happens anyway.

[Hoopy]

Holy fuck Ong was strung up without a chance to respond. We can't be doing stuff like that. No one vote atm.

daven, wuf, rong, eric, SDM = ONG Wagon

I don't like SDM's closing vote one bit, you must have known that 5 was the limit yesterday.

Eric has also made sure that he's been around late day for both the Gator & Ong lynches.

[a500lbgorilla]

Eric transforms into Baudib before your very eyes!

[baudib]

Hi guys. Rilla offered me a chance to be a late sub so I jumped at it. I've been reading this thread and some past games the past few days so I think I'm up to speed. Clearly I need to spend some time rereading this thread, which has been a cool game so far.

First, let me offer my noob first impressions (from before I joined), as well as a couple of questions:

1. Having read past game threads, it blows chunks that we lost Gabe and Gator so quickly. FWIW (not much at this point), I got a distinct vibe from Gator (as non-participant) that he was villagery this time, as good as he is, and his read on Hubermex being wolfy jibed right.
2. OngBonga seems like a really strong player too, another loss but he does muddle things a bit. I was completely enthralled by the game he fake outed as seer and courtie pwn3d it. Knowing he was legit, what do we make of his mass claim idea? Too tired to crunch the math atm but it seems like it could work. Or just another spewy crazy Ong being Ong idea?
3. Am I missing something or has the Vig been blocked all nights? If so then seems like finding the TC should be priority before any outing, especially with no angel.

Gonna go back and reread some things now, and maybe post once more before going to bed.

[Hoopy]

I've got daven and wuf as villagers right now due to their early interactions with mex.

Eric is probably a villager or the turncoat.

bigred, SDM and keith need to be looked at.

[Hoopy]

Going through bigred's posts.

I guess it's time to join the fun. Hoopy broke all the controllers after I went German on his Brazillian ass in Fifa. I don't even know why folks are wasting time. It's day 1. lynch gator .

Goddamn Germans!

Annddd it's night 0 apparently. rescind gator .

Nothing here.

A dead gator is a good gator. ​lynch gator

Standard practice.

I also like a rong lynch. Weak defense of probable villager, no real commitment...super all star mode

More than we usually see from bigred early. Never followed up though.

"Hi, I'm Wufwugy. My hindsight in werewolf is always 20/20."

No comment.

Did not realize Keith was even playing...hmmmmmm

I think he's being honest here regardless of role.

Really no idea. Not much information has been revealed besides the usual Ong/Wolf back and forth. Gator voted for a dhuber combined with his play makes me interested in lynching him. Other than that , I got nothing.

Slight villager lean for this. It seems like he's reading the thread somewhat. Will wolves push for wolf lynches? Cover has less value this game with reduced numbers.

Meh, I'll follow everyone and get on the mex bandwagon. He was my most suspicious anyway.

It's tough to contribute on weekends.

Last minute vote for mex when he was pretty much dead. Wolves usually try to avoid the tailend of a wolf wagon in my experience.

Ugh. I'm really sorry for my lack of participation guys. I just kicked off a new project and have been working from 7am to when I finally fall asleep on my keyboard. We gotta find this final wolf.

I think he's a villager guys.

[baudib]

Hoopy, I actually suspected you of being a wolf early on but I am certain you are not; your response to Ong getting mislynched feels 100% genuine. Full disclosure: as a non-participant I suspected noob Eric of also being a wolf. But Eric is me, and I'm a villager.

Since I've got you as lock-villager, I think your read on SDM is pretty good. His decisive vote DOES look wolfy.

Originally Posted by rong
eric - not wolf, possible TC (Due to night kill choices)




This is a really good catch in my opinion. The choice of wolf kills points to a veteran.

Here SDM just reiterates solid analysis by someone else without really adding anything.

I still think lynching one of bigred, hoopy, or daven is a better idea, since the rong bandwagon collapsed.

Throws out a bunch of names, again without really adding content.

I'm going to go along with this... you better not be wrong wuf...


lynch ong

Easy out, he was just going along with wuf....

Not sure what to make of SDM's question on game-mechanics.

[baudib]

OK did a quick read back of the whole thread. Some thoughts:

1. I specifically combed through looking for Keith posts. Because I had seen several comments that Keith always looks wolfy, and if he's a wolf, he's going to be a dangerous one because he still looks wolfy, which is normal. Although then I saw his attacks on SDM, and SDM is looking pretty shady ATM.

2. Whoever the turncoat is, is playing a sick game. I have a couple of suspects in mind, but I don't want to say who they are because if one is the TC, I'm pretty sure the other is the seer. If veteran players think we should discuss this openly then I will give my theories. Q on game mechanics, does TC show up as villager on seer scan? If so then if seer has gotten clears, he might have to re-examine some of those...

3. Having read previous gamethreads, I get that BigRed is a low-content poster. But this:

Ugh. I'm really sorry for my lack of participation guys. I just kicked off a new project and have been working from 7am to when I finally fall asleep on my keyboard. We gotta find this final wolf.

Seems weaksauce. It kind of hits me the same way that Gator's stuff about RL interference in one game where he was a wolf.

I'd like to turn up the pressure on Keith, Big Red and SDM.

Going to bed, hope this helps a bit.

[baudib]

I've got daven and wuf as villagers right now due to their early interactions with mex.

Eric is probably a villager or the turncoat.

bigred, SDM and keith need to be looked at.

Hoopy, sorry I didn't see this post before. I'm Eric now btw, and I'm def. villager.

I came up with the same three who need to be examined more closely. Good to see my noob instincts might not be off.

[Hoopy]

Hi guys. Rilla offered me a chance to be a late sub so I jumped at it. I've been reading this thread and some past games the past few days so I think I'm up to speed. Clearly I need to spend some time rereading this thread, which has been a cool game so far.

First, let me offer my noob first impressions (from before I joined), as well as a couple of questions:

1. Having read past game threads, it blows chunks that we lost Gabe and Gator so quickly. FWIW (not much at this point), I got a distinct vibe from Gator (as non-participant) that he was villagery this time, as good as he is, and his read on Hubermex being wolfy jibed right.
2. OngBonga seems like a really strong player too, another loss but he does muddle things a bit. I was completely enthralled by the game he fake outed as seer and courtie pwn3d it. Knowing he was legit, what do we make of his mass claim idea? Too tired to crunch the math atm but it seems like it could work. Or just another spewy crazy Ong being Ong idea?
3. Am I missing something or has the Vig been blocked all nights? If so then seems like finding the TC should be priority before any outing, especially with no angel.

Gonna go back and reread some things now, and maybe post once more before going to bed.

1. Those night kills may have been done to have the best chance of killing seer lookups.

2. a) Ong be crazy, but good crazy.

b) I think a massclaim can work. Thing to consider is that we could be at 3-2 tomorrow (lynch villager, wolf kill, turncoat reaches out and switches sides). More likely 4-1 which could be won if the seer is alive and has a lookup.

3. I'm assuming that the vig hasn't been shooting. TC would try to block the seer.

[Hoopy]

2. Whoever the turncoat is, is playing a sick game. I have a couple of suspects in mind, but I don't want to say who they are because if one is the TC, I'm pretty sure the other is the seer. If veteran players think we should discuss this openly then I will give my theories. Q on game mechanics, does TC show up as villager on seer scan? If so then if seer has gotten clears, he might have to re-examine some of those...

Turncoat shows up as a villager to the seer as per rilla's initial post. We need to get the wolf today, since the turncoat is still a villager we win.

[baudib]

Thanks for the clarification, Hoopy.

Since we know Ong was legit vanilla and he was being genuine, I think we can glean a lot from his analysis. But there's so many posts someone else will have to do it, I legit have to get some sleep.

Get the wolf. FTW.

[baudib]

One last thought (for real).

God I suck

Never seen such a terse statement from wuf in any forum. I'd expect quite a bit of soul searching and verbiage if Wuf was really upset about leading the charge on crazy, innocent Ong from Day 1.

goodnight

[wufwugy]

One last thought (for real).



Never seen such a terse statement from wuf in any forum. I'd expect quite a bit of soul searching and verbiage if Wuf was really upset about leading the charge on crazy, innocent Ong from Day 1.

goodnight

I wax philosophical when I'm wrong; I hate my stupid brain when I'm really wrong

I listed off all the ways Ong was a baddy. He had to be a baddy. How does somebody do so many baddy things and end up not being a baddy? I think my new rule will be that if a player does more than 3 baddy things, he's just a villager who doesn't bother making sure he's not doing baddy things. If he does 3 or below baddy things, then he could be a wolf because they try to act more like villagers than the villagers themselves

Does this sound smart to you? Probably not, it's probably just as stupid as every other idea I use to try to find baddies. I want to soulpwn the wolves. If I do that and they end up not being wolves, then wtf am I even doing?

Besides, the game is a 1000% up to the specials now. A seer who survives this late means the village has it locked down. Two specials and three potential lookups with 7 players left is a ratio that means the wolves only win like 5% of the time. I guess Ong was right. I thought the massclaim was premature with 9 players though, and figured he should have thought that too. But if I'm the seer with only 7 players left, I'm mashing my keyboard to out

[baudib]

Wuf, I have to say I don't really like your answer here.

I'm pretty close to 100% that you're not seer (or you'd be WOAT seer, and I don't think you'd be that) or vig. That means you must be vanilla, TC or wolf.

Besides, the game is a 1000% up to the specials now. A seer who survives this late means the village has it locked down. Two specials and three potential lookups with 7 players left is a ratio that means the wolves only win like 5% of the time. I guess Ong was right. I thought the massclaim was premature with 9 players though, and figured he should have thought that too. But if I'm the seer with only 7 players left, I'm mashing my keyboard to out

This seems sort of lazy, which I don't think you are. Seems like it could serve as attempt to get the seer to prematurely out. If you wanted seer to out as vanilla villager I think you'd make a better case for it.

[baudib]

I mean, Wuf is probably right and it's inevitable we're going to get a W here.

I still don't like his response (either one) since Ong got lynched, and it sorta casts his whole feud with Ong in a bad light.

If we were voting I'd prob flip a coin between SDM and Wuf right now, still wanna hear more from Keith, Big Red.

Daven, I think we think a like in some ways but I'd like to hear your thoughts too.

[wufwugy]

Of course it's lazy. Did you see what I just finished doing? That wasn't as awful as the game I mentioned where I did the same thing to Gator that I did to Ong, but close. I don't care about my opinion now. I'm tired of the awesome reads I get just being wrong.

But I do know that specials, particularly the seer, don't make it this far, and when they do, the game is over. And even if the game isn't over, the specials have to out because of the exponential increase in the probability they get nommed due to smaller pool. Living to Day 4 in a large pool is a pretty big deal for specials, but this is a small pool, an exponentially bigger deal.

13 players to 9 players is too early, but 13 players to 5 players is probably too late. 13 to 7, where we are now, is the out day. Let's say we lynch a villager today, that means the wolf has a 20% chance of randomly hitting the seer, 20% of the vig, 20% of one lookup, 20% of another lookup, 20% of another lookup. Assuming there is just one lookup living, I think that the possibility of disaster happening at night is at least 40% (the seer or that lookup being nommed). Bump that up to 60% if there are two lookups. Hell, if there are two lookups, that means there's a 20% chance that the wolf noms the seer and we lose three in one night from the pool of "specials + lookups".

If Ong was marginally right yesterday, then it means he would have been super right if it was today. This is because the effect is exponential, not linear

[wufwugy]

Look at it like this: the seer probably has two lookups. Could have three, could have one, could have none, but probably most of the time it's two. That means one seer, one vig, and two lookups (a vig could have been a lookup though, but I don't think that changes my reasoning). That means there are on average four players that right now should not be lynched. But there are only seven players playing. The wolf and turncoat are probably harder lynches than average, and they probably have ideas of who the other is (so want to avoid those wagons) and ideas of who the specials are (so they would prefer those wagons). This basically means that the probability of just our natural lynching process will be directed at somebody that we would not lynch if the specials outed. The worst case scenario is if the lynch wagon is on one of the specials, and they have to out at the end, then we have to quick-lynch somebody else. That means the entire day was spent trying to lynch the wrong person, and then the final lynch would be on somebody who is also probably the wrong person

However, if we have a massclaim, we avoid this. We get as much time we want of clarity and directing the wagons where they need to go. The numbers are not perfect because the turncoat is read as a villager (unless he isn't already a wolf) and he can block players, but I don't think that matters because I think even then the massclaim on the 13/5 day is too late and we'll find that maybe the wolf nommed the seer (20% chance) and we lose all his info

[wufwugy]

^^13/5 day means the day 5 players are left. I was still in the train of thought of 13 players to start, and how I think 13 down to 9 isn't enough for the specials to need to out, but 13 down to 5 is too far

[wufwugy]

Oh I forgot that we don't have time limits now. That's basically a death sentence to the wolves, because it eliminates the quick-lynch problem, which is one of the main problems for any village. This does change some of the calculus for why outing is better, but not by much. I think the only real reason why a massclaim isn't correct is if the seer thinks the only way his lookups have value is if he finds the wolf instead of finding villagers. I don't agree with that because I think the village gains more by having the outs and figuring things out from there than relying on the seer to try to seer the wolf and live to tell the tale. Even with the turncoat showing up as a villager problem, we probably succeed less often when relying on the seer to find the final wolf

I don't really see how this game is winnable for the baddies. Too many specials and lookups alive in the late game. We come to problems if the seer looked up a bunch of dead villagers or the turncoat. But if not, it's basically over and we win. Even if we have this worse case scenario, I think it's better to get everybody on record and squeeze down on the unknowns. It's not like Ong's claims about massclaims is wrong; he was just proposing to do it too early, when it would have been bad for the village

[baudib]

Wuf:
I can't quite disagree with anything you're saying. But. I can't quite get over this feeling that we're not on the same team. Because being complacent and letting the wolf/TC slip through could be viable wolf strategy. We're still in the business of hunting a wolf, no? I don't get the feeling you're interested in that.

Do you want to comment on my assessment of you as vanilla, TC or wolf?

I got me and Hoopy as lock villagers. Everyone else has the slight whiff of wolf minimum.

[baudib]

BTW, I'm for mass claim. Because it's my first game and seems exciting. I'm for the team really. Vig can shoot me if it helps clarify.

But there's a little mystery here. Why isn't the vig shooting? Why didn't the vig shoot Ong as he requested? Why did the wagon form around Ong when the vig could get him?

[wufwugy]

It doesn't look like I'm wolf hunting because I'm not. Ong was by far my best pick. After that, Rong was my pick. My third pick is a distant third, and I haven't bothered to try to figure out who that is. After Ong flipped villager, I thought Rong would be the guy. After Rong flipped villager, I'm pissed off and took a break for the rest of the day and got drunk. Then I come back today and figure out that the right course of action is a massclaim. I'm not even trying to wolf hunt right now since the outing has to happen and that will change everything. Well, that's partially a lie. Obviously I have opinions, but they're all dependent on who outs, who is what, who the lookups are, etc. I tend to have a step by step way of playing. Under normal circumstances, I would think the next step is to figure out who my third baddy candidate is, but I don't think that now. I think the next step is for a mass outing. I'm not interested in acting like even though I was majorly wrong about my main baddy candidate and single-handedly got him killed, and wrong about my next in line, I'm just gonna jump back in immediately and say I have more wolfreads and people should follow them. I don't like the crazy wuf impression I put out. That has largely dissipated since I have tamped down on that kind of play and have modded a lot instead of playing, but now I'm sure it will come back after having ramrodded vilong

I'm critical of performance. The last time I made as big of a misread as I did with Ong, we lost. I don't want to do that again, but also I don't think the game depends on what I do anymore. I think the game is probably already cinched but we don't know it because the specials haven't outed. We either get an outing then devise a lynch order, or we try to not lynch the seer and hope he can snag the wolf at night and live to the next day. The former is better than the latter, and I'm just sitting on my thumbs waiting for other players to show up

[Keith]

bollocks ....just built a long post and lost it . initial cliffs are hoopy is the wolf sdm is the turncoat .....you'll just have to wait for me to get the evidence back together again.

[Keith]

oh .... and not a fan of a mass claim at the moment as the turncoat could have been looked up and will come back as a villager. that is bad news for the village if he then converts.

[baudib]

Wuf: Fair enough. I still think this approach is something a wolf or TC might do.

Keith, really interested in your theories on Hoopy.

Guys, I'd like feedback on my game play so far and also suggestions on how I can be most helpful. thanks.

[wufwugy]

Wuf: Fair enough. I still think this approach is something a wolf or TC might do.

I think the disconnect is that I think the game has already been solved a large percentage of the time. The seer already has a certain number of lookups, most of the time the turncoat is not one of them, and the only thing left to do is just set up a lynch order. In games where the seer has it cinched up, they're over long before the technical ending. Because I think the specials have to out today, I'm waiting for that before I give opinions on the lynch order. It's probable that with the seer's information, we won't even have to worry about the turncoat because there would be just a couple possible wolf candidates to lynch. I think we have a better shot of lynching the wolf this way than the seer does of staying quiet and seering the wolf then living to the next day

Guys, I'd like feedback on my game play so far and also suggestions on how I can be most helpful. thanks.

I think new, excited players are always better than people think. I was great in my first game. But also you've jumped in late, it's possible the game is already over, just not technically over. Also I think we all agree that viewing the game from the outside is much easier than the inside, so subbing a player can really help that player's team.

Regardless, you'll be a great addition for future games. I think most forum members don't even know what WW is, so we get so few new players

[Keith]

ok..early game ...but why just happen to choose a wolf to name as a wolf.

I've seen Eric around before, but who's dhubermex?


Probably a wolf!

post 79 where i linked mex and hoopy together

inetersting thing to note is that hoopy totally ignores my post. surely a villager would try and question my post whereas two wolves would definately try and not draw attention to it.
First post hoopy made after my post was aroung #99 with

Alright 10 hours to go.


Eric, daven and gabe have nothing at all.


Current vote count (can someone doublecheck)


hubermex - 4
wuf - 3
Gator - 2
daven - 1

lynch daven

so hoopy has mex in the lead and avoids voting for him and instead plumps for daven.When i point out that hoopys vote looks suspicious when mex is shown to be a wolf he says

I don't think wuf is wolfin, huber is a question mark.


daven hasn't helped so far.

well if mex was a question mark it still doesn't answer why he didnt vote for him but instead voted for someone who hadn't helped so far.

lynch hoopy


For taking the easy lynch road which is pretty wolfy.

interesting vote in that JV got eaten.
i think this was #206

I don't think a new wolf says stuff like this, his den partner would tell him that it means nothing.


Ouch.


Since no one is interested in Eric.


rescind
lynch daven.

so having thought that mex was a question mark , he then defends mex before it was known that he was a wolf.

disclaimer - i know that as a wolf i've done votecount analysis purporting to be a villager. Whatever. Read and make up your minds for yourselves:


Day 1 votes:


Keith → SDM (post 41)
Ong → Keith (post 42)
Wuf → Gabe (post 44)
Ong → Wuf (45)
Keith → rescind SDM, lynch Wuf (48) (Gabe – 1, Wuf - 2)
bigred → gator (56)
dave → wuf (57)
gabe → daven (60)
dhubermex → wuf (62) (gabe – 1, daven – 1, Wuf – 3, Gator - 1)
gator → dhubermex (68)
wuf → dhubermex (69)
ong → gator (84) (wuf – 3 gator – 1, daven – 1, dhubermex - 2)
Sdm → gator (88)
ong → rescind (92)
jv → dhubermex (97) (wuf – 3, gator – 1, daven – 1, dhubermex - 3)
hoopy – daven (100)




hoopy post 99 does a vote count, but doesn't id who is voting for whom. He miscounts votes on dhubermex and gator – I think. That can happen though I guess. I think as a villager he's more likely to include the list of voters cos it's useful intel. He doesn't address any of gator's strong arguments for Dhubermex = wolf, makes it look like Dhubermex has more votes than he really does, then starts another wagon by voting to lynch me with no reasoning, he knows that i'm usually a pretty easy wagon to get rolling and I was pretty much MIA. Yeah. Hoopy looks wolf. With Dhubermex.




Rong – gator (101)
(wuf – 3, gator – 2, daven – 2, dhubermex - 3)
gabe – gator (103)
ong – wuf (104)
eric – gator (122)
(wuf – 4, gator – 5, daven – 1, dhubermex – 3) as per below from 'rilla




There's a gator pile-on. Gabe is a known villager here. Ong points out that a gator lynch might be sub-optimal and votes for wuf rather than dhuber, why is that? obviously a dhuber lynch is going to be more likely late day than a lynch of an active wuf.




Night:


jackvance - dhubermex
hoopy - daven
dhubermex - wuf
gatorjh - dhubermex
keith - wuf
sdm - gator
wufwugy - dhubermex
ongbonga - wuf
gabe - gator
bigred - gator
eric - gator
rong - gator
daven - wuf

I didn't have much time right then so did a quick VC and asked people to double check. But don't you think that if I was a wolf with huber that I'd make sure to get his count exactly right.


Are you an easy wagon to get going? Because I've had my vote on you for ages yet zilch has happened.


rescind daven

now for the inetersting stuff

7 hours to go I think.


Voting


rong - 2 (ong, hubermex)
ong - 2 (wuf, rong)
hubermex - 1 (daven)
SDM - 1 (keith)
Hoopy - 1 (SDM)


No vote (Hoopy, Eric, bigred, JV)

hoopy later claims this proves that he is a villager because he posted this vote count and then was second on the wagon when mex got lynched.

lynch hubermex because he's gone to ground.


I don't find ong or rong very wolfy right now.


Who do you think is wolfy? What do you think of the game so far?

rong and ong were on two votes , rong was voted for by ong who was never getting off and mex the other wolf.ong and rong had dominated the posts that day so hoopy slips in a vote for mex who would not be up for lynching as others got to 2 first and likely hood was that ong or rong would likely be the deadvillager. hoopy gains villager credit for avoiding the ong and rong deaths and if mex is later shown to be a wolf he was on his wagon. Which is what his defence now is.He didn't push the vote by digging up evidence saying why he thought he was wolfy and he never expected his wagon to take off like it did.

I don't see how I was distancing myself from him, he was unknown so I had no baseline on how he played.


I was second on huber's wagon yesterday when the votes were spread everywhere. So what you're saying is that I threw my own teammate under the bus to get the turncoats attention? That doesn't make sense.

here he is trying to take credit for being second on his lynch wagon ....curiously saying nothing at all about the first day when he avoided voting for him when his own votecount said he was in the lead.

I wonder if huber made the mistake of ignoring his teammate entirely in the game thread, new wolves sometimes do that.


That does look bad I'll admit.

hoopy was referring to daven 's quote of #206 where hoopy defended mex.

Post #238 I did the vote count which had ong and rong on 2 and 3 other people (including mex) on 1.


Immediately afterwards I vote for mex. Now if I'm a wolf then why do that? Keith + others were already going for me based on my link to mex so mex dying puts the spotlight on me. No cover whatsoever.

the point is that you didn't expect his wagon to take off with the attention that rong and ong had been getting.

Holy fuck Ong was strung up without a chance to respond. We can't be doing stuff like that. No one vote atm.


daven, wuf, rong, eric, SDM = ONG Wagon


[b]I don't like SDM's closing vote one bit, you must have known that 5 was the limit yesterday.[b]


Eric has also made sure that he's been around late day for both the Gator & Ong lynches.

you now point at eric and sdm

I've got daven and wuf as villagers right now due to their early interactions with mex.


Eric is probably a villager or the turncoat.


bigred, SDM and keith need to be looked at.

funny that daven pointed out a lot of the same stuff about you and mex that i have and you've been trying to get him lynched all game and now you have him as a villager and i need to be looked at for saying a lot of the same stuff about you and mex that daven has. That looks some fuzzy logic to me.

Going through bigred's posts.


Slight villager lean for this. It seems like he's reading the thread somewhat. Will wolves push for wolf lynches? Cover has less value this game with reduced numbers.


Last minute vote for mex when he was pretty much dead. Wolves usually try to avoid the tailend of a wolf wagon in my experience.


I think he's a villager guys.

Funny how hoopy is trying to downplay the value of cover this game where his attempt at getting cover by voting for mex when he thought he would be safe blew up in his face and when mex was in danger by his vote count he totally avoided putting him in more danger. Wolves usually avoid putting the nail in the coffin on a villager . funny how you say that wolves avoid getting on the tailend of a wagon when you avoided getting on the tail end of mex's wagon when he was at risk but got on early when he wasn't at risk.

Turncoat shows up as a villager to the seer as per rilla's initial post. [b]We need to get the wolf today, since the turncoat is still a villager we win[b].

This is also a message to the turncoat from a wolf reminding the turncoat that he needs to signup as a dead wolf means a village win and the turncoat is a wolf so he would lose.For someone clarifying the turncoats role he is ignoring the initial description

The Turncoat is a wolf that counts as a villager towards win conditions. He does not know the other wolves nor do the wolves know him. Each night, the turncoat may choose to block one player's actions for the night phase (can't block wolf kills), or to reach out to the wolf team. If he chooses to reach out to a surviving wolf, he'll join up as a full fledged vanilla wolf. If he chooses a villager, that villager will know the turncoat's identity.

it doesn't start off saying that the turncoat is a villager until he chooses to join the wolves. When the village wins the turncoat loses.

[Keith]

Remember last time you tried to do this and nobody believed you because the math didn't add up? Only this time it's even worse because of the turncoat who would have an easier time finding the last wolf. Unless of course the turncoat decides to stay a villager and win since there's only one wolf left. I believe you're a villager since a wolf would think about what they did last game and not make the same mistake twice.


Bigred is posting a lot more than ever. Why does he care so much about this game? Unless he's a wolf and has something to prove. Hoopy is still posting a lot more than normal. daven is looking suspicious as hell and seems awfully aggressive. I like these three as my probable wolf or turncoat suspects.





Keith is playing his standard "SDM must die" game, which really doesn't tell us anything.


There's a bandwagon on rong so I am going to hop on. I think his lynch will be very informative, a win-win for the village. If he turns up villager then I think we need to look at the suspects I listed above.

lynch rong

so SDM has his list of suspects yet thinks its a win win for the village to lynch someone he thinks is a villager . How can this ever be a win win . SDM certainly doesn't elaborate.

Every time I've seen a player beg to be shot by the vig, they ended up being a villager. This combined with your days-long arguments with wuf lead me to believe that neither of you two could be the last wolf.

so SDM is convinced that someone begging to be shot is a villager

This is a really good catch in my opinion. The choice of wolf kills points to a veteran.


I still think lynching one of bigred, hoopy, or daven is a better idea, since the rong bandwagon collapsed.





I'm going to go along with this... you better not be wrong wuf...


lynch ong

so having been convinced that ong is a villager for begging to be shot and having his own preferred list of wolf suspect he decides that its best for the second time to lynch someone he is sure is a villager. How can this ever be a villagers actions.?It certainly fits in with a turncoats actions and he always blames someone elses reasoning for his vote on a villager.

Before I waste too much time doing the math to see if a massclaim can possibly make sense, I have a question for the almighty rilla:

Do the wolves get a nom on the night that the turncoat converts but the last remaining pre-conversion wolf gets shot? Since the vig acts before the wolves, the wolf that sent in the kill request will be dead. I need to know if the turncoat doesn't perform a kill because he was busy transforming or if the kill happens anyway.

funny how SDM needs clarification on how the turncoat works during his conversion ............add in the actions above and i think that he is the turrncoat and hoopy is the wolf. we need to take out the wolf so that sdm can't convert.

[baudib]

Keith: Solid analysis. My gut still says Hoopy is villager. His initial analysis/reaction to the Ong mislynch rings true to me. And as I said, a lot of his analysis runs similar to some of my thinking, so I feel like I can trust his reads. I may review some previous games to get a better feel for how Hoopy plays. I thought Ong or someone said he thought Hoopy was playing his standard game though.

Question: How much strategic value is there, generally, in lynching someone as opposed to having the vig deal with them? If we coordinate well we can direct the vig on who to shoot so we get the best candidates.

A curiosity: Why would the wolf kill rong? Because he was a villager and seemed to be next on the hit list. Simply to kill a seer lookup? Seems like bad math.

[baudib]

also there was a post early in the thread where Hoopy admits his defense of Mex looks bad. I feel like if he were a wolf he'd be WAY more defensive about it and put in more effort to clear himself when it obv.a looks sketch.

[baudib]

Keith, what do you think of Wuf?

[baudib]

Sitrep: Stagnation

This is going to be a long day. No time limit. No votes. No outings.

Weird.

Forgive my exuberance as a noob. I can taste VICTORY here. So let's get the ball rolling?

Maybe I'm just an action junkie. Most roads point to inevitable win (yawn) and I agree. But I feel that somehow delaying aids the W/TC.

BigRed posts one low-content post, with no preference for voting, no opinion on claiming.

Hoopy says don't vote. Everyone listens. Including the guy who is convinced Hoopy is the wolf. Wat.

Wufwugy is for claiming, but doesn't claim or vote. Woah

We still haven't heard from Daven.

Me? You can't shut me up with a crate of ball gags.

The next piece of information is going to be VERY interesting.

If no one gets the ball rolling, I'm going to vote later tonight. Unless there's agreement that that's a very bad idea.

Wolf can't win a war of attrition.

[daven]

I got me and Hoopy as lock villagers. Everyone else has the slight whiff of wolf minimum.

lol, polar opposite to my read after ong and rong both flipped villager..
My read is hoopy as wolf and you (ex-eric) as likely turncoat or vig.

[daven]

interesting couple of excuses from bigred...

Meh, I'll follow everyone and get on the mex bandwagon. He was my most suspicious anyway.

It's tough to contribute on weekends.

Ugh. I'm really sorry for my lack of participation guys. I just kicked off a new project and have been working from 7am to when I finally fall asleep on my keyboard. We gotta find this final wolf.

[daven]

ok, before i do a thorough readthrough i'll post my gut feelings on each of the surviving players:

hoopy - likely wolf. I wanted him to be yesterday's lynch until ong did everything he could to look like a wolf. And yep, i know my initial lynch vote for that day was for rong rather than hoopy. I was fine with that as a place to start and see what (if anything) would happen.
keith - he was pretty high on the dhubermex lynch rationale along with me = likely villager.
sdm - likely villager, but he's playing pretty sane and coming across as reasonably sensible = not what he's famed for, so longshot wolf based on that
wufwugy - likely villager. i don't think he'd be so nuts interacting with ong as a wolf, nor do i expect he and dhubermex would be voting for each other on day 1 if both were wolves.
bigred - meh, not much content and excuses on that front. umm, possible wolf, more likely villager or turncoat
baudib - unlikely wolf based entirely on the wolf night kills that have been made. They are near optimal for a player who is trying to kill likely seer lookups, and it's unlikely a new player noms an inactive JV. Could be wrong though I guess. Could definitely be vig, i can't imagine any of the rest of the players left holding their shot three nights in a row when there are good targets to be had. Could also definitely be turncoat, i think a few of the other players would have reached out on the gamble on their reads by now...
daven - villager

[daven]

mass claim seems like it might work, but it relies on the vig having the testicular fortitude to start shooting...
the risk is that we mislynch a villager again and the turncoat and the wolf both reach day end -> it becomes ez game for the turncoat to find the wolf. That would put it at 3-2 and dangerous for the village.

[baudib]

Daven, really happy to see you. I feel like I have a decent read on surviving players except you. Take it as a compliment when I say your range is soooooo freaking wide here.

I know you said it's your gut (but then again your gut is infallible . But I urge you to re-examine at least a couple. I've already posted a vigorous defense of Hoopy, I think there's even more on further readback. But what can I say, it's mostly gut and initial reaction and prejudice: He came to the same conclusion as me on several occasions so naturally I trust him.

sdm - likely villager, but he's playing pretty sane and coming across as reasonably sensible = not what he's famed for, so longshot wolf based on that

Hoopy, Keith and I have already pointed out SDM's problems. His decisive Ong vote post is full of fail, and his post since wasn't so sexy either.

I half think that Wuf's point about you making a sicko move by killing off Mex as a teammate wolf makes sense. But I don't think you're a batshit crazy gambler.

But you didn't vote either. Are you for mass claim now?

[baudib]

P.S. I'm a villager. and loyal.

[daven]

if two of the seer's reads are still alive then he should out. That would give us three confirmed as not the last wolf and should be enough to get the lynch right today. Worst case we mis-lynch and the vig would then likely have an easy shot. Depends on out-mechanics (i.e. who claims vanilla and who claims special etc though, as well as who exactly the lookups have been)
if one of the seer's reads is still alive then ?
if none of the seer's reads are alive then fuck.

in the absence of a mass claim then i guess it's just up to lynching the most likely wolf, and to me that's hoopy.

hard to believe i get to be the first player to bold someone today:
Lynch Hoopy

[baudib]

I feel pretty good about Daven now. I got him and Hoopy as villagers, and Keith is close.

[daven]

A curiosity: Why would the wolf kill rong? Because he was a villager and seemed to be next on the hit list. Simply to kill a seer lookup? Seems like bad math.

killing a seer lookup is huge. Imagine if we had three seer-confirmed villagers right now.

[daven]

He came to the same conclusion as me on several occasions so naturally I trust him.

wolves find it easy to be right about who the villagers are. Cos they don't have to figure it out.

I half think that Wuf's point about you making a sicko move by killing off Mex as a teammate wolf makes sense. But I don't think you're a batshit crazy gambler.

i'd like to think i could make that play as a wolf, but I don't know if i could. I've lynched wolf team-mates before though.

But you didn't vote either. Are you for mass claim now?

see my next posts

[Hoopy]

Looking through SDM's posts.

In.



Thoughts about the game setup:



- vig gets to fire every night. If we get a bad vig this game will be over quick

- turncoat could be potentially be really bad for the village if he decides to work for the wolves before formally joining them

- wufwugy is obviously a wolf. Unless the vig fires every night in which case he's the vig







I'm playing poker? I think I would last longer in bed with a Dallas Cowboys cheerleader than at a poker table.[/COLOR]

Game mechanics, not much to see here.

Can we get a clarification on the turncoat's abilities? I think it works like this: if he selects a villager at night, then the villager's actions are blocked. If he selects a wolf, he becomes a wolf. Is that correct? I can't find the role on mafiascum.

Maybe he asks this in the wolf chat if he's wolfin.

Day 1 is a crapshoot. I think it's going to be especially bad in this day because there are only 2 wolves so a lot of people are talking in circles.

Still not linked to anyone.

Ong is all over the place like last game. I don't know if this is his playstyle or not. I think villager for now. I don't care much for his wuf's slip of the tongue theory.

Hoopy seems to be his usual self.

Gator I'm reading as a wolf. But I read him as a wolf every game.

Bigred is participating a lot. I think he has already posted more in this game than in most games he plays. https://i.chzbgr.com/maxW500/2934180352/h3221F6D9/

jv is talking a lot. My favorite for turncoat.

keith is playing his usual wolfvillager.

gabe's avatar is giving me the urge to buy the Stick of Truth.

rong appears to be playing his standard game.

The new guys seem to be making mistakes but I think villagers are more likely to look like wolves on day 1 than actual wolves.





In conclusion gator is a wolf.



lynch gator

Doesn't mention mex by name but does have a subtle defense of him.

I think this game may have been started too soon after the last one.



I am going to lynch hoopy because he's the strongest read I have as a wolf. Other good lynches include rong who looks angrier than usual and daven. I like wuf and ong as villagers. jackvance is looking like a villager like he does every game.



I would laugh if Eric and Mex end up being the wolves.

Going after me without a reason. Changed his opinion on JV fairly quickly. Does he say the last sentence with mex as his partner?

Remember last time you tried to do this and nobody believed you because the math didn't add up? Only this time it's even worse because of the turncoat who would have an easier time finding the last wolf. Unless of course the turncoat decides to stay a villager and win since there's only one wolf left. I believe you're a villager since a wolf would think about what they did last game and not make the same mistake twice.





Bigred is posting a lot more than ever. Why does he care so much about this game? Unless he's a wolf and has something to prove. Hoopy is still posting a lot more than normal. daven is looking suspicious as hell and seems awfully aggressive. I like these three as my probable wolf or turncoat suspects.











Keith is playing his standard "SDM must die" game, which really doesn't tell us anything.





There's a bandwagon on rong so I am going to hop on. I think his lynch will be very informative, a win-win for the village. If he turns up villager then I think we need to look at the suspects I listed above.



lynch rong

Is bigred actually posting more than normal this game? Plus his rong lynch looks opportunistic.

Every time I've seen a player beg to be shot by the vig, they ended up being a villager. This combined with your days-long arguments with wuf lead me to believe that neither of you two could be the last wolf.

Says he thinks ong is a lock villager.

Show me how the numbers make sense now.

Before I waste too much time doing the math to see if a massclaim can possibly make sense, I have a question for the almighty rilla:



Do the wolves get a nom on the night that the turncoat converts but the last remaining pre-conversion wolf gets shot? Since the vig acts before the wolves, the wolf that sent in the kill request will be dead. I need to know if the turncoat doesn't perform a kill because he was busy transforming or if the kill happens anyway.

Did this ever get answered?

This is a really good catch in my opinion. The choice of wolf kills points to a veteran.





I still think lynching one of bigred, hoopy, or daven is a better idea, since the rong bandwagon collapsed.









I'm going to go along with this... you better not be wrong wuf...





lynch ong

I really don't like this vote. Nail in Ong's coffin without giving him a chance to respond. Plus he's wildly deviating away from his previous reads, something I think SDM is unlikely to do based other peoples opinions.

Best bet for the last wolf so far.

[baudib]

Daven -- Villager. Playing a good game. Scary if he's not on your team. One thing not noted is how Daven keeps giving the vig instructions. Daven is devious and it could be that it's him just thinking a loud. I don't know that he would hold his fire for 3 straight days though, and being blocked 3 times would seem unlikely.

Keith-- I was wary of him, too, but he seems solid. I don't think all of his reads are on but he's trying despite not rage-spamming the forum like Ong or me.


BigRed -- Wolfy. all his posts are weaksauce. Offering little guidance, reads or help.


SDM -- Extremely wolfy/turncoaty. Hating his most recent posts, for reasons I've detailed.


Hoopy -- I found him to be pretty wolfy, too. But my gut as participant tells me otherwise. Upon every read I find his responses consistent with my (baudib, not Eric) reads/village POV. If he turns out to be turncoat or wolf shame on me, but I'm sticking with my reads.


Wufwugy -- Problematic at best. Found his post-Ong depression to be utterly unconvincing. His complacency/faith in specials to just grind out the win seems hollow. He admitted he's not wolf-hunting. This doesn't seem like the Wuf I know and have read in past game threads. I don't think Wuf is lazy or afraid to express his opinions. Likely turncoat, possible wolf. If villager, just vanilla.


baudib -- villager ldo.

Lynch SDM

[daven]

Before I waste too much time doing the math to see if a massclaim can possibly make sense, I have a question for the almighty rilla:

Do the wolves get a nom on the night that the turncoat converts but the last remaining pre-conversion wolf gets shot? Since the vig acts before the wolves, the wolf that sent in the kill request will be dead. I need to know if the turncoat doesn't perform a kill because he was busy transforming or if the kill happens anyway.

^ this to me makes sdm look less suspicious rather than more suspicious. Mostly cos i was wondering the exact same thing, and went to rilla's op to try and figure it out. My take is that based on order of actions

Order of night ops is Turncoat > Angel > Seer > Vig > Wolves

the turncoat would get to nom tonight if we mislynch, then he correctly reaches out to the wolf, and then the vig shoots the other wolf. But now that i type it out i realise it's not that likely a set of events.
In fact, the benefit of lynching hoopy is that he's the most likely wolf AND if he somehow flips villager then it's unlikely the turncoat will find the wolf tonight cos fuck, it's not clear at all to me who of the remaining players is most likely wolf if he isn't. So, yeah, no need for a mass out. Hoopy seems to think a mass-out is a good idea, hmmm.

b) I think a massclaim can work. Thing to consider is that we could be at 3-2 tomorrow (lynch villager, wolf kill, turncoat reaches out and switches sides). More likely 4-1 which could be won if the seer is alive and has a lookup.

Hoopy, if we lynch you and you somehow flip village then how likely do you think it is that the turncoat finds the wolf? vs how likely do you think it is that the turncoat finds the wolf if we mass-out?

[Hoopy]

Me? You can't shut me up with a crate of ball gags.

Lol, that's a sig quote right there.

if two of the seer's reads are still alive then he should out. That would give us three confirmed as not the last wolf and should be enough to get the lynch right today. Worst case we mis-lynch and the vig would then likely have an easy shot. Depends on out-mechanics (i.e. who claims vanilla and who claims special etc though, as well as who exactly the lookups have been)
if one of the seer's reads is still alive then ?
if none of the seer's reads are alive then fuck.

in the absence of a mass claim then i guess it's just up to lynching the most likely wolf, and to me that's hoopy.

hard to believe i get to be the first player to bold someone today:

I agree with the seer outing stuff. To me the fact that the seer hasn't outed means that he either has 1/0 living lookups. Massclaim is out for now.

Why do you think I'm a wolf daven?

I feel pretty good about Daven now. I got him and Hoopy as villagers, and Keith is close.

I have daven & wuf and you as not wolves. Anyone could be the turncoat right now.

[baudib]

I could be talked out of an SDM lynch. He's slightly more likely to be turncoaty.

Rescind SDM.

[baudib]

Hoopy, you can pretty much count Keith as a vote for you. so if one other person votes you, the wolf piles on and you're gone.

I'm your biggest believer by far. You're not on my top 5 list of potential wolves but you need to make a good case I think.

[baudib]

I mean guys, this game has been a whole mess of confusion and bickering among villagers. Look how many villagers voted to lynch Gator. Ong and Rong would have lynched each other happily.

[daven]

Daven -- Villager. Playing a good game. Scary if he's not on your team. One thing not noted is how Daven keeps giving the vig instructions. Daven is devious and it could be that it's him just thinking a loud. I don't know that he would hold his fire for 3 straight days though, and being blocked 3 times would seem unlikely.

trying to guess what i would have done as vig. I've never been a special (except for the role-madness game where everyone was a special, but i was lynched before i got to use my power that game anyway) and fucked if i'm not going to use the power when i have reads. Easy to be forgiven if you fire with good reasoning and get it wrong, plenty of opportunity to be a hero!
night 1 i might have held fire? if i had shot it would have been rong or dhubermex.
night 2 i most likely would have fired. Rong or hoopy.
night 3 i most likely would have fired. Rong or hoopy again.

reading the txt, is it possible that the vig has fired though, and the wolves and the vig shared a target?

[baudib]

I think it's more likely that Wufwugy is on a different level, playing an A+ wolf game rather than a C- villager game.

Lynch Wufwugy

Wuf, if you're not a Wolf then at least I'm kicking you in the ass to get your head back in the game.

[daven]

Hoopy, you can pretty much count Keith as a vote for you. so if one other person votes you, the wolf piles on and you're gone.

I'm your biggest believer by far. You're not on my top 5 list of potential wolves but you need to make a good case I think.

there are seven players left. You know your role. There are six players besides you. You think that hoopy is the least likely player to be a wolf?

[baudib]

To Wuf:
and if you still think mass claim = win, then claim.

[daven]

post 322 and you thought a mass claim was a good idea hoopy,

1. Those night kills may have been done to have the best chance of killing seer lookups.

2. a) Ong be crazy, but good crazy.

b) I think a massclaim can work. Thing to consider is that we could be at 3-2 tomorrow (lynch villager, wolf kill, turncoat reaches out and switches sides). More likely 4-1 which could be won if the seer is alive and has a lookup.

3. I'm assuming that the vig hasn't been shooting. TC would try to block the seer.

but now you don't?

I agree with the seer outing stuff. To me the fact that the seer hasn't outed means that he either has 1/0 living lookups. Massclaim is out for now.

also

Why do you think I'm a wolf daven?

.

see my posts on earlier days. Nothing has changed my day 2 view that you are a wolf with dhubermex. Add to that the fact that you don't seem to recognise or acknowledge how wolfy you look. Add to that the players most likely to be nommed by the wolves based on the strategy they appear to be taking of blocking lookups would make you a very likely night 3 nom, but you're still here.

[Hoopy]

My take is that based on order of actions

the turncoat would get to nom tonight if we mislynch, then he correctly reaches out to the wolf, and then the vig shoots the other wolf. But now that i type it out i realise it's not that likely a set of events.
In fact, the benefit of lynching hoopy is that he's the most likely wolf AND if he somehow flips villager then it's unlikely the turncoat will find the wolf tonight cos fuck, it's not clear at all to me who of the remaining players is most likely wolf if he isn't. So, yeah, no need for a mass out. Hoopy seems to think a mass-out is a good idea, hmmm.

I agree that set of events is very unlikely, turncoat doesn't know who the wolf is yet. And mass outing depends upon the seer lookups, since it hasn't happened I'm assuming that it's not viable.

Hoopy, if we lynch you and you somehow flip village then how likely do you think it is that the turncoat finds the wolf? vs how likely do you think it is that the turncoat finds the wolf if we mass-out?

I'm a villager.

He'll have 20% random chance, assuming he doesn't have any reads. Mass out with 1 lookup, 50% random chance. Zero lookups 33% chance. Obviously if the wolf counter claims the seer he's got a 50% chance of picking right.

[baudib]

there are seven players left. You know your role. There are six players besides you. You think that hoopy is the least likely player to be a wolf?

Yeah, actually I do. I think I've made my reasons clear. To me, SDM's recent behavior is beyond sketchy. Keith pointed to SDM as most likely turncoat and I'm inclined to agree. If Hoopy wasn't a villager I don't think he'd be so quick to jump all over SDM. Go back and read Hoopy's early posts. He admitted the defense of mex looks bad in retrospect. Well, a lot of things look bad in retrospect. I think that a wolf, if caught in such a clumsy defense of a fellow wolf, will mount a more angry defense. He just shrugged it off as an early mistake.

I think Hoopy is right and the wolf is in the Ong bandwagon.

Ong is a confusing player but he seemed pretty non-wolfy to me all along. I would have guessed Ong was special before wolf (as non-participant).

[daven]

@ hoopy. The turncoat risk means there is a game within a game here. If we mis-lynch and the turncoat doesn't reach out to the wolf correctly then the village is still in a great position. If we mis-lynch and the turncoat finds the wolf then we're in trouble. So, this question for you stands.

Hoopy, if we lynch you and you somehow flip village then how likely do you think it is that the turncoat finds the wolf? vs how likely do you think it is that the turncoat finds the wolf if we mass-out?

[baudib]

Have to agree with Daven that is a fair question. Mass claim seems to risky given the strength of our position.

Wolf cannot win war of attrition.

[baudib]

I'm guessing Big Red is wolf or vig. Would explain the non-shots.

[baudib]

You can't use wanting to mass claim against Hoopy though. Ong was a villager and wanted to do it yesterday.

[baudib]

Win seems EXTREMELY likely if we can aim the vig.

[daven]

lol, you answered the question while i was typing. I wasn't asking about random chances though. Imagine for a second that you aren't a wolf. I can see how that might be hard for you to do.

Fuck, now i need to go thoroughly through the maths around a mass out. I don't want to type the detail though, cos i don't want to describe what i think is optimal claim strategy for the wolf and the turncoat.