Werewolf: To The Edge

[Hoopy]

post 322 and you thought a mass claim was a good idea hoopy,

but now you don't?

I said it 'could work', with no seer outing though it must be unviable.

see my posts on earlier days. Nothing has changed my day 2 view that you are a wolf with dhubermex. Add to that the fact that you don't seem to recognise or acknowledge how wolfy you look. Add to that the players most likely to be nommed by the wolves based on the strategy they appear to be taking of blocking lookups would make you a very likely night 3 nom, but you're still here.

I'll read back through your posts, then respond to you and keith. Keep in mind after Ong's death rong was a likely lookup as well.

[Hoopy]

lol, you answered the question while i was typing. I wasn't asking about random chances though. Imagine for a second that you aren't a wolf. I can see how that might be hard for you to do.

Well all my percentages were based on the village lynching me today whether there's a mass claim or not.

[baudib]

Early on, Villager Ong, Daven and Keith voted to lynch Wuf. Unfortunately, Mex voted for Wuf too at one point, but it seemed half-hearted.

[daven]

Keep in mind after Ong's death rong was a likely lookup as well.

absolutely agree. You and rong were the two most likely lookups on the third night. The fact that rong is dead and the seer isn't outing means it's unlikely you were looked up, while very likely that rong was.

[daven]

P.S. I'm a villager. and loyal.

loyal to whom?

[baudib]

Vig and wolf sharing a target on same night would be consistent with how this game has gone.

Going back through the thread makes my head hurt now. It's clear that 99% of the bickering is villager on villager obviously. I guess that often happens.

If the TC had binked a block on the vig, he'd likely keep on blocking.

[Hoopy]

I'm assuming you mean this stuff daven.

views change.
I've looked at day 1 closely, in the knowledge that gator was a villager. I see nothing that makes me think that dhubermex is a villager, but i saw some things that made me think hoopy is likely wolf with dhuber. And i think you're a good vig shot cos shooting the turncoat would be awesome.
Some day 1 vote count stuff incoming.
I think that dhubermex and hoopy are the wolves and you're the turncoat.

disclaimer - i know that as a wolf i've done votecount analysis purporting to be a villager. Whatever. Read and make up your minds for yourselves:

Day 1 votes:

Keith → SDM (post 41)
Ong → Keith (post 42)
Wuf → Gabe (post 44)
Ong → Wuf (45)
Keith → rescind SDM, lynch Wuf (48) (Gabe – 1, Wuf - 2)
bigred → gator (56)
dave → wuf (57)
gabe → daven (60)
dhubermex → wuf (62) (gabe – 1, daven – 1, Wuf – 3, Gator - 1)
gator → dhubermex (68)
wuf → dhubermex (69)
ong → gator (84) (wuf – 3 gator – 1, daven – 1, dhubermex - 2)
Sdm → gator (88)
ong → rescind (92)
jv → dhubermex (97) (wuf – 3, gator – 1, daven – 1, dhubermex - 3)
hoopy – daven (100)


hoopy post 99 does a vote count, but doesn't id who is voting for whom. He miscounts votes on dhubermex and gator – I think. That can happen though I guess. I think as a villager he's more likely to include the list of voters cos it's useful intel. He doesn't address any of gator's strong arguments for Dhubermex = wolf, makes it look like Dhubermex has more votes than he really does, then starts another wagon by voting to lynch me with no reasoning, he knows that i'm usually a pretty easy wagon to get rolling and I was pretty much MIA. Yeah. Hoopy looks wolf. With Dhubermex.

I didn't really trust Gator's arguments for lynching hubermex at that point. I voted for you because you had zero content and were drifting along, was away from the game for the rest of the day due to being busy.

Rong – gator (101)
(wuf – 3, gator – 2, daven – 2, dhubermex - 3)
gabe – gator (103)
ong – wuf (104)
eric – gator (122)
(wuf – 4, gator – 5, daven – 1, dhubermex – 3) as per below from 'rilla


There's a gator pile-on. Gabe is a known villager here. Ong points out that a gator lynch might be sub-optimal and votes for wuf rather than dhuber, why is that? obviously a dhuber lynch is going to be more likely late day than a lynch of an active wuf.


Night:

jackvance - dhubermex
hoopy - daven
dhubermex - wuf
gatorjh - dhubermex
keith - wuf
sdm - gator
wufwugy - dhubermex
ongbonga - wuf
gabe - gator
bigred - gator
eric - gator
rong - gator
daven - wuf

gator's read that dhubermex is wolf was based on solid reasoning - none of that has been rebutted by anyone.
So, i looked at things based on a premise that dhubermex is a wolf, and, yep, your post highlighted some stuff that made hoopy look like his partner in pacifism, and as per my post above, hoopy's vote-count then vote in posts 99 and 100 also look like wolf-actions in that context

Question, why do I vote for him early on day 2 when it would have been way easier to vote for rong/ong or hold off?

[daven]

Well all my percentages were based on the village lynching me today whether there's a mass claim or not.

i reckon we should lynch you. most likely you flip wolf and gg
off-chance you flip village then you should be the one to determine who the vig shoots.

[daven]

If the TC had binked a block on the vig, he'd likely keep on blocking.

nah, he wouldn't know. Vig is likely to not shoot on night one so I don't agree with this logic..

[baudib]

Daven what's your take on wuf's recent behavior?

[daven]

Question, why do I vote for him early on day 2 when it would have been way easier to vote for rong/ong or hold off?

it was pretty clear after my post that dhubermex was either going to be lynch- or vig-bait pretty quickly. Getting your vote on early isn't a terrible way to get some distance in, and, hell, it's not even that high-risk at that stage. If you'd got your vote on him late in the wagon then i'd be interested in this defence... hell, your rationale for bolding dhubermex wasn't even that you thought he was a wolf - you used a rationale that would easily allow you to move your vote away to someone else if he turned up and it looked like he could stay safe. Compare that to my reasoning, i voted for him cos he was a wolf...

lynch hubermex because he's gone to ground.

[daven]

Daven what's your take on wuf's recent behavior?

he's played a pivotal role in a villager lynch and got into big arguments - sounds like villager-wuf to me

[baudib]

Lol fair enough.

Now, he's gone strangely quiet and disinterested. Wants to just mass claim or special and gg.

[Hoopy]

Vig and wolf sharing a target on same night would be consistent with how this game has gone.

Going back through the thread makes my head hurt now. It's clear that 99% of the bickering is villager on villager obviously. I guess that often happens.

If the TC had binked a block on the vig, he'd likely keep on blocking.

I don't think the vig has fired at all this game, generally to shoot without a good read in a smaller field is a bad idea.. Turncoat has probably been trying to block who he thinks is the seer/angel all game.

[daven]

I'm pretty happy with where my lynch vote is sitting. I'd re-assess in light of any special claims cos i'd have to, but even then. I mean, the last little while Ive been trying to do a readthrough imagining hoopy as a villager but all i get is a stronger read that he's a wolf...

and a smile at the thought that ong's probably in the dead thread seething because we're doing a shit job of figuring out the pros and cons of a massclaim..

[baudib]

Gonna go afk for a while. Won't pollute the thread for a good 5 seconds.

Hoopy, you may not be around, so it's been real. I hope you're a villager or I look like a dumb noob.

Daven's idea is good: Leave instructions for the vig if you get mislynched.

[Hoopy]

it was pretty clear after my post that dhubermex was either going to be lynch- or vig-bait pretty quickly. Getting your vote on early isn't a terrible way to get some distance in, and, hell, it's not even that high-risk at that stage. If you'd got your vote on him late in the wagon then i'd be interested in this defence... hell, your rationale for bolding dhubermex wasn't even that you thought he was a wolf - you used a rationale that would easily allow you to move your vote away to someone else if he turned up and it looked like he could stay safe. Compare that to my reasoning, i voted for him cos he was a wolf...

Was he though? Day 2 rong and ong were on 2 votes each, only you & keith had pushed hubermex before I voted for him. Most of his votes came right at the end of the day.

Why would I want him dead as a wolf? So much heat is on me now it's pointless for deception. If I was a wolf I'd have made up some reason to vote for rong and let him and ong fight it out on day 2.

[Hoopy]

ok..early game ...but why just happen to choose a wolf to name as a wolf.
Pure chance maybe?






inetersting thing to note is that hoopy totally ignores my post. surely a villager would try and question my post whereas two wolves would definately try and not draw attention to it.
Sometimes I skim what you write, plus I didn't think it was that compelling.
First post hoopy made after my post was aroung #99 with








so hoopy has mex in the lead and avoids voting for him and instead plumps for daven.When i point out that hoopys vote looks suspicious when mex is shown to be a wolf he says





well if mex was a question mark it still doesn't answer why he didnt vote for him but instead voted for someone who hadn't helped so far.

Both of those are valid reasons to vote for someone early on.





interesting vote in that JV got eaten.
i think this was #206



so having thought that mex was a question mark , he then defends mex before it was known that he was a wolf.
I've already said that post is unfortunate, I genuinely believed that he wouldn't say that as a wolf.






now for the inetersting stuff





hoopy later claims this proves that he is a villager because he posted this vote count and then was second on the wagon when mex got lynched.





rong and ong were on two votes , rong was voted for by ong who was never getting off and mex the other wolf.ong and rong had dominated the posts that day so hoopy slips in a vote for mex who would not be up for lynching as others got to 2 first and likely hood was that ong or rong would likely be the deadvillager. hoopy gains villager credit for avoiding the ong and rong deaths and if mex is later shown to be a wolf he was on his wagon. Which is what his defence now is.He didn't push the vote by digging up evidence saying why he thought he was wolfy and he never expected his wagon to take off like it did.

Look at all the villager credit I'm getting right now!







here he is trying to take credit for being second on his lynch wagon ....curiously saying nothing at all about the first day when he avoided voting for him when his own votecount said he was in the lead.



hoopy was referring to daven 's quote of #206 where hoopy defended mex.





the point is that you didn't expect his wagon to take off with the attention that rong and ong had been getting.





you now point at eric and sdm





funny that daven pointed out a lot of the same stuff about you and mex that i have and you've been trying to get him lynched all game and now you have him as a villager and i need to be looked at for saying a lot of the same stuff about you and mex that daven has. That looks some fuzzy logic to me.

I haven't been after daven all game, just the first day. Your vote on mex on day 2 is less strong than daven's early vote.







Funny how hoopy is trying to downplay the value of cover this game where his attempt at getting cover by voting for mex when he thought he would be safe blew up in his face and when mex was in danger by his vote count he totally avoided putting him in more danger. Wolves usually avoid putting the nail in the coffin on a villager . funny how you say that wolves avoid getting on the tailend of a wagon when you avoided getting on the tail end of mex's wagon when he was at risk but got on early when he wasn't at risk.





This is also a message to the turncoat from a wolf reminding the turncoat that he needs to signup as a dead wolf means a village win and the turncoat is a wolf so he would lose.For someone clarifying the turncoats role he is ignoring the initial description

Reaching.

it doesn't start off saying that the turncoat is a villager until he chooses to join the wolves. When the village wins the turncoat loses.
If we get wolf today we win, the turncoat will not have a chance.

I doubt keith will change his mind.

[Hoopy]

i reckon we should lynch you. most likely you flip wolf and gg
off-chance you flip village then you should be the one to determine who the vig shoots.

If I die I don't think the vig should shoot with the seer still out there. But mathematically it could be best.

Honestly it's really tricky to know what to do.

[Hoopy]

Gonna go afk for a while. Won't pollute the thread for a good 5 seconds.

Hoopy, you may not be around, so it's been real. I hope you're a villager or I look like a dumb noob.

Daven's idea is good: Leave instructions for the vig if you get mislynched.

Dude you have more posts than most of people in the thread, please play again.

[baudib]

I'm torn cuz I stand by my reads. Look again at the Ong post-mortem and compare Hoopy's response to Wuf's.

I mean, I want to win and if Hoopy is the wolf and gets lynched, yay team. But I want to be right. Honestly, I want to keep playing, too.

If I'm right and Hoopy is villager, then I have a plan. Going to get creative, less stream of consciousness.

[Hoopy]

Guys it's SDM, he's the wolf.

It just came to my mind that SDM is unusually quiet this game. And then I thought "when was the last time he was a wolf".

I've checked all the way back to the fucking 2010 Xmas wolf game. He's not been a wolf once in that period in the games he's played. Idk if he's ever been a wolf.

Yet his post count for all those games where he didn't get munched early is way higher, never in the bottom half.

This game he has 11 posts and is near the bottom.

[Keith]

why didn't you comment on the quote where you said that wolves don't get on the tail end of wagons and you avoided getting on the tailend of the mex wagon but did get on early when you didn't think he was at risk and in a manner that didn't make him seem wolfy?

[baudib]

I think our problem this game has been a combo of inactive/gunshy Vig; opportunistic wolves killing seer lookup; and villagers leveling themselves.

Problem for hoopy here is that the people who think he's a villager are dead villagers (Ong, Rong) and me.

I'd suggest Occam's Razor. Hoopy voting for fellow wolf when no one had more than 1 or 2 votes is pretty dangerous in a 2-wolf game where no one seemed to quite understand the Turncoat role early on.
From Hoopy:

Holy fuck Ong was strung up without a chance to respond. We can't be doing stuff like that. No one vote atm.

daven, wuf, rong, eric, SDM = ONG Wagon

I don't like SDM's closing vote one bit, you must have known that 5 was the limit yesterday.

Eric has also made sure that he's been around late day for both the Gator & Ong lynches.

Hoopy voted for Mex for Villager cred could be applied to Daven. Hell, I think My/Eric's record is pretty awful: Gator and Ong. Eric didn't even post any particular reasons why he was voting. Just hopped on bandwagons.

Let's put some questions to SDM before stringing up Hoop.

Rescind Wuf, lynch SDM

[baudib]

Daven, can you clarify this statement?

I said:
I half think that Wuf's point about you making a sicko move by killing off Mex as a teammate wolf makes sense. But I don't think you're a batshit crazy gambler.

Your answer:

i'd like to think i could make that play as a wolf, but I don't know if i could. I've lynched wolf team-mates before though.

You're saying that you'd like to think you could lynch a wolf teammate, but don't think you could. Then you say you've done exactly that in the past. I assume you misstyped something here.

[Keith]

I find baudib's staunch support of hoopy interesting. he's pulling out all the stops to keep hoopy alive. Baudib for turncoat? eric may have pulled out not having the time to play or may have had no idea how to play the role. it explains the substitution and sets up a pun bauderic is close to baldric for those old enough to remember blackadder. I want to lynch hoopy now before either sdm or baldric get to convert. SDM is bad enough to have done what hes done as a villager and hoopy and baldric are both pointing at him.

[Keith]

I find baudib's staunch support of hoopy interesting. he's pulling out all the stops to keep hoopy alive. Baudib for turncoat? eric may have pulled out not having the time to play or may have had no idea how to play the role. it explains the substitution and sets up a pun bauderic is close to baldric for those old enough to remember blackadder. I want to lynch hoopy now before either sdm or baldric get to convert. SDM is bad enough to have done what hes done as a villager and hoopy and baldric are both pointing at him.

[baudib]

Keith, almost all of your posts here have been spent on trying to lynch Hoopy, or tying Hoopy as W to SDM as TC. But if you suspect SDM of being TC, doesn't that by definition, make him wolfy? I'm torn because as I said, SDM does look like a high TC candidate.

I can actually see how you would make the leap that I'm TC, especially if you're set on Hoopy being W. But Eric/I am a villager. Noob villager, but not dumb. I don't have any information on why Eric did what he did or what his thought process was, but I'm pretty sure if he/we were the TC, he wouldn't start the game by jumping on the fastest bandwagons in town.

I've been wolf hunting. That's a difficult process, so instead I've switched to villager hunting. That's a pretty interesting process. Because theoretically, everyone should look like they're trying to be villagers. But there people not acting in a very villager friendly way.

Who do you think the villagers are, Keith?

I'm 100% on me being a villager; I'm like 85-90%+ that Hoopy is villager. I think Daven is around 80% and you're around 75%. I'm going to be wrong a decent amount on all those. But I'm way lower on the others.

Lynch Hoopy as you seem intent on doing. If you're right then it won't matter what I am. If you're wrong...well let's just say I'm going to lower the numbers on you and Daven quite a bit.

[baudib]

but yeah I'm TC for the pun value obv

[baudib]

I used my TC powers to block Wuf's obvious seer powers.

No, I'm the wolf actually, because Baudwolf is almost like Beowulf.

[baudib]

Been doing some digging. In past game threads. Dead chats.

Pretty interesting stuff to read. Fascinating if you read up on current players' game theories, and see if they do or do not correlate with what they're doing now.

But the most instructive thing I see is that LOLobvious wolf Rilla almost slipped through for a win despite Courtie's GOATseer performance because the village was being lazy.

[baudib]

Gonna try to concentrate on work and not WW for rest of day. GG yay we win if Hoopy's the wolf.

If tomorrow comes, let's play some poker ITT.

[baudib]

If Hoopy is V, mass claim. Lynch/vig/seer everyone claiming to be vanilla.

[baudib]

Last thing: Seer should out 2 confirmed villagers. Or 1 confirmed villager among Hoopy/SDM/Wuf/BigRed. If 1 confirm outside that group, then get one from that group and out tomorrow if we are 4-1. IMO. Or just find the wolf.

[StillDeadMoney]

Question: How much strategic value is there, generally, in lynching someone as opposed to having the vig deal with them? If we coordinate well we can direct the vig on who to shoot so we get the best candidates.

The vig acts after the turncoat in this game. The turncoat might be able to convert before the wolf is shot.

I'm guessing Big Red is wolf or vig. Would explain the non-shots.

Vigs do not fire as long as the seer is alive. I haven't done the math yet to see if this makes sense, but this is how people usually play it.

[StillDeadMoney]

Alright. Here goes.


I am the seer. It's become obvious by the chatter that I would either be lynched or eaten tonight because I'm not playing my standard game.


I double-checked my math to make sure that coming out was the right idea. Under optimal wolf team play, the wolves have at best a 21% chance to win.


I have 3 living scans. The confirmed villagers are:


bigred
hoopy
keith


Plus myself as the seer makes 4 confirmed out of 7 villagers. The remaining wolf is one of


wufwugy
Eric/baudib
daven


If the turncoat coverts, everyone is a suspect, including bigred, hoopy, and keith. The seer has no ability to see the turncoat.


Vigilante should not out yet. I haven't yet done the math to see if his outing in this unique setup is good or bad for the village. I will give more info in the next 24 hours or so.


Nobody should be giving advice or openly doing the math in this thread about the situation. Do it yourself if you need convincing. But I don't want the turncoat to know whether to block someone, whether or who to reach out to, etc. Nobody say a word about what the turncoat should do or can do. Nobody say about what any of this means for the turncoat. If you keep your mouth shut then the turncoat can make a mistake, and the chances of that are very likely. Remember that if the turncoat reaches out to a villager instead of a wolf, the turncoat is identified to the villager that was reached out to via a private message from rilla. I am mentioning this because nobody has brought this up in the thread so far and I want it to be clear to everyone that this is how the role works.


What people should start discussing now is who gets shot and who gets hung out of the three.


Good luck, village. Nobody bold anything until I get back 24 hours from now please.

[bigred]

"Hi, I'm Wufwugy"

[Hoopy]

SDM with the bomb, I need to think about this some more.

[baudib]

Bahahahahahahaha. PWN3D

I'm gonna leave my bold on SDM for the lulz. Give this group 25% shot of lynching SDM out of paranoia/leveling themselves into the ground, even absent a counterclaim.

I will legit say I give Hoopy about as much chance of being the TC as SDM, who has maybe a 1 in 1,000 shot at making a desperate TC play. Hoopy is the only person ITT other than perhaps the deceased Gator who consistently acted like an earnest, vanilla villager.

[baudib]

Think I cinch MVP as well, given context.

[Keith]

any counterclaimers?

[wufwugy]

LOL he's lying. I've been waiting for a fakeseer to out since I'm the realseer. I looked up SDM last night and he's the wolf. I was hamming it up about being all sad because that's hilarious

lynch stilldeadzombie

teh wuffles gets teh emvizzlepizzle fo shizzy

[baudib]

Oh snap. Didn't see that one coming. But I guess I shoulda.

Co-MVP for me/Hoopy for lynching SDM.

[baudib]

LOL GG wolves

[baudib]

Sorry about putting the heat on you Wuf

^FOWIZZLE 5

[wufwugy]

It's not thang. You're new and excited. Sometimes talking is best, sometimes it's not

[baudib]

Wuf, I had seen in the old dead chat your speech about how you need to kill all the wolves before acting like it's over. That's why I thought you were vibing so special/wolf/seer. Can't believe no one picked up on that.

[a500lbgorilla]

Alright, 48 hours remaining

[Hoopy]

What is going on?

[Keith]

the wolf is either sdm or wuf and the game ain't over yet

[wufwugy]

Game is over dudes

[daven]

What is going on?

i put heaps of pressure on you cos i thought you were last wolf. Eventually you agreed to identify the player you thought most likely wolf when i suggested that we lynch you, and that if you flipped villager then the vig shoots the player you choose. And you chose SDM. I simply wanted you to choose someone, that player was always going to out unless they were vig - for obvious reasons. And if the player is/was a wolf and they outed as a special then at least one villager would know so immediately.

the last wolf is one of sdm and wufwugy
we have to lynch one of them.

if we get it wrong then the vig shoots the other one, but the turncoat converts before the vig fires so we get to tomorrow with a wolf left. And it's likely to be a less straightforward wolf to find cos turncoat etc.
it's not as 100% over as it might first appear. we shouldn't rush lynch unless we 100% believe one or the other of the claims.

wuf, who were your night one and two lookups?
sdm - really, you didn't look up gabe or jv or rong or ong or dhubermex? why was that?

[daven]

actually, there's a non-zero chance that the last wolf isn't one of wufwugy/sdm. It's possible that this is a seer/turncoat combo and the last wolf is still sitting and watching...

[daven]

I am the seer. It's become obvious by the chatter that I would either be lynched or eaten tonight because I'm not playing my standard game.

i doubt you were at risk of being eaten. You were likely to get lynched today, or win with us when we lynched hoopy and he flipped wolf, or get shot by the vig.

[Keith]

Alright. Here goes.


I am the seer. I

I have 3 living scans. The confirmed villagers are:


bigred
hoopy
keith


.

but yesterday sdm seer was saying

This is a really good catch in my opinion. The choice of wolf kills points to a veteran.


I still think lynching one of bigred, hoopy, or daven is a better idea, since the rong bandwagon collapsed.





I'm going to go along with this... you better not be wrong wuf...


lynch ong

since when does the seer advocate two of his living villagers

this just demonstrates how bad sdm is because he doesn't/can't think through situations

lynch sdm

[baudib]

Game over. Unwinnable for the wolves. You'll see.

[wufwugy]

Why isn't SDM dead yet?

I used the same strategy as last time I was a wolf: lookup the lowest content players, because most of the time they're just villagers who don't get nommed but can get mislynched, and the rest of the time they're wolves playing it quiet. Night 1 was Bugrud, Night 2 was Eric, Night 3 was SDM. Bugrud and Eric (Uruc?) flipped villager obv and SDM flipped wolf. I was letting it roll a little today to have fun, but realized it could get horrible if I somehow got lynched while AFK. That shit has happened at least twice.

According to Rilla, the turncoat hasn't turned yet, so the game is over.

[daven]

Why isn't SDM dead yet?

just want to make sure it's better to kill him first rather than you first....

Why isn't SDM dead yet?

I used the same strategy as last time I was a wolf: lookup the lowest content players, because most of the time they're just villagers who don't get nommed but can get mislynched, and the rest of the time they're wolves playing it quiet. Night 1 was Bugrud, Night 2 was Eric, [/QUOTE]

two villagers yesterday, why didn't you out then?

[daven]

fwiw, i think i'm going to lynch sdm - but i'm going to do so with a backup plan for if he flips seer or turncoat.

[wufwugy]

just want to make sure it's better to kill him first rather than you first....

I used the same strategy as last time I was a wolf: lookup the lowest content players, because most of the time they're just villagers who don't get nommed but can get mislynched, and the rest of the time they're wolves playing it quiet. Night 1 was Bugrud, Night 2 was Eric,

two villagers yesterday, why didn't you out then?[/QUOTE]

Like I said, it was too soon. Two villagers in a field of nine players doesn't help much and just means the wolf would nom me and then nothing I did mattered for the end game. Compound this with the fact that one of them could be the turncoat, and it made more sense to get an additional lookup. In a game with 13 to start, outing at 9 is too soon, but outing at 5 is too late. I was planning on outing at 7. I thought the game may have been wrapped up without even needing to though because I thought Ong really was the last wolf. I thought there was no way he would advocate a mass out with 9 players left unless he was a baddy

[wufwugy]

^^ stupid no edits. He would nom me then bugrud and eric and there would be no endgame benefit

[StillDeadMoney]

LOL he's lying. I've been waiting for a fakeseer to out since I'm the realseer. I looked up SDM last night and he's the wolf. I was hamming it up about being all sad because that's hilarious

lynch stilldeadzombie

teh wuffles gets teh emvizzlepizzle fo shizzy

Are you seriously counterclaiming, wuf?

[StillDeadMoney]

since when does the seer advocate two of his living villagers

It's called "don't give any hints that you're the seer by making the wolves think you will vote to kill other villagers".

[StillDeadMoney]

To anybody that believes wuf's claim, let me ask you this.

How many games have I fake outted as the vigilante? zero.
How many games have I fake outted as the seer? zero.

In the past, I've fake outted as the angel for strategic reasons. To help the village. In my last game, I fake outted as the angel in an attempt to get the wolves to eat me. If the wolves eat a villager, the real angel lives longer.

Why isn't SDM dead yet?

I used the same strategy as last time I was a wolf: lookup the lowest content players, because most of the time they're just villagers who don't get nommed but can get mislynched, and the rest of the time they're wolves playing it quiet. Night 1 was Bugrud, Night 2 was Eric, Night 3 was SDM. Bugrud and Eric (Uruc?) flipped villager obv and SDM flipped wolf. I was letting it roll a little today to have fun, but realized it could get horrible if I somehow got lynched while AFK. That shit has happened at least twice.

According to Rilla, the turncoat hasn't turned yet, so the game is over.

wufwugy is apparently serious about making a seer claim. This is desperation.

I say "I won't be here for 24 hours". I check the thread roughly 12 hours from after I say that and lo and behold, what is happening? A fake seer claim is made and they are trying to get a quick bandwagon on me to save the game.

[StillDeadMoney]

Though I did have early game I think where I fake outted because I was on the brink of getting hanged for no other reason than to survive.

[StillDeadMoney]

lynch wufwugy

[StillDeadMoney]

fwiw, i think i'm going to lynch sdm - but i'm going to do so with a backup plan for if he flips seer or turncoat.

Why would the turncoat fake out? The turncoat doesn't know who the wolves are. He could advocate to have a wolf hanged and not know it. Fake outting as the turncoat makes absolutely no sense. All the turncoat will do is draw attention to himself.

[StillDeadMoney]

Those of you who have me bolded, answer me this question:


Why would a wolf be the first to fake out at the seer on day 4? It is an absolutely horrible play. Think about the situation for a moment: the wolves have no idea how many of their kills have been scanned. The wolves don't know if they will kill the seer and if the seer left any breadcrumbs as to who they think is a wolf and who they think is a villager. If a wolf fakes out as the seer, that does not signal the turncoat to "reach out" to him to give the wolf team a fighting chance. The wolves and turncoat cannot talk to each other outside the game, so the wolf in this situation has to give a signal to the turncoat to reach out to him.


There is simply no universe, no situation, no justification for a wolf to fake out as a seer in this game. None. The turncoat is perhaps the biggest piece of evidence on my side.

[StillDeadMoney]

I didn't want to say it (and I explicitly said it in my message, but wuf figured it out), the optimal play for the wolves is to fake out as the seer in response to my outing as the seer because...

It gives the perfect signal for the turncoat. I get hung today, I flip seer. The turncoat acts first at night, so the turncoat will immediately reach out to wufwugy and convert into a wolf! The vig shoots wufwugy, but it is too late. The turncoat converted.

[StillDeadMoney]

There is simply no universe, no situation, no justification for a wolf to fake out as a seer in this game. None. The turncoat is perhaps the biggest piece of evidence on my side.

I should correct this: There is simply no universe, no situation, no justification for a wolf to fake out as a seer like I did in this game. It's a horrible play all around.

[StillDeadMoney]

wow, I can't even get the correction right. Replace "like I did" with "in my situation" in the above post.

[StillDeadMoney]

Here's more evidence. Say it's day 4, there are 7 living villagers, and I'm a wolf. I come up with a hare brained scheme to win by being the first to fake out as the seer and I say I have a wolf amongst 3 targets left. The vigilante is alive.


Day 1: villager hung. 6 villagers 1 wolf.
Night 1: villager shot. 5 villagers 1 wolf.
Day 2: villager hung. 4 villagers 1 wolf.
Night 2: I get shot since my 3 "wolf targets" are dead and I'm obviously a wolf. 4 villagers 0 wolves. Village wins.


The math is staring at you right in the face. I gave a list of people I wanted to get killed, and even you follow my instructions to the letter, I would still die as a wolf. The turncoat wouldn't know who to reach out to.


Fake claiming seer as a wolf on day 4, with the situation as it is, does not make sense.

[StillDeadMoney]

In my haste I forgot to include wolf kills in the above math. That would still not give me enough time, if I were a wolf, to win, because that's just an extra villager kill on night 1. And as a wolf, I still wouldn't have given the turncoat a firm signal as to who to reach out to, and I would probably end up killing the turncoat.

[StillDeadMoney]

Summary of the Evidence

- Fake claiming to the seer when you're a wolf in my situation (no seer claims, 7 villagers alive, claiming that I have 3 confirmed living villager targets) does not make sense. It doesn't signal the turncoat to reach out to me. I would die tomorrow night after all of my targets were killed since I said I had 3 confirms. I would have had no idea how many scanned villagers were still alive. Fake outting as the seer in my situation would be throwing the game away.
- On the other hand, fake outing as a wolf makes perfect sense in response to my outing as the seer. It throws up a flag to the turncoat and says "REACH OUT TO ME AFTER THEY HANG THE SEER AND DISCOVER I WAS LYING!". Turncoat acts first so he is able to convert to being a wolf even though wufwugy gets shot. The village starts at square 1 with no seer info because the seer cannot detect the turncoat.

One more thing I forgot. Did you notice I didn't ask the vigilante to claim until I did the math? The vigilante was my backup plan. Wuf fools you all into lynching me, the true seer, and once I turn up seer then the turncoat converts. I wanted the vig to not claim because I need him to keep firing into the crowd until he hits the wolf. If I get hung and the vigilante dies the night after, the wolves have a chance.

[StillDeadMoney]

Here are my instructions to the vig:

I am 99% sure that the turncoat is on my bandwagon right now. If I die, keith and baudib need to go. baudib is keeping his vote on me "for the lulz", which is a flimsy excuse to look innocent. keith is either playing exceptionally poorly (does a player like keith really not realize that a seer has to convince people he is not the seer?) or is the turncoat.

My money for the turncoat is baudib. Along with the "for the lulz" being the absolute worst reason in the history of WW to throw a game away, whic his what he would be doing as a villager, there are metagaming reasons. Would rilla sub Eric out for a regular villager? I think the probably of that happening is small.