FTR Werewolf: Gold Rush (Carbon Poker Freeroll)

[baudib]

At first glance...

baudib looks very villagery after providing a solid strat for the vig. The only way he's a wolf imo is if all of the wolves are high content posters, but this is a very small % chance. keith, dan, and bbikes disagree with baudib but I'm not in that camp yet.

Grey Fox is looking more wolfy with his panic responses than other. Day 1 reads FTW.

I've only read through approx 200 posts but will continue now until I'm caught up. Man, starting the game near the end of Day 1 is hard enough as it is, there's so much content. Thankfully half of it is garbage.

Also, I think it goes without saying that I replaced a player who was bored with the game, which means there is a better than average chance that their role was a boring one (EX. VILLAGER).

Anyways... I'll be back soon.

this is more content than Wuf has posted the entire game. You're a way better play than him, congrats.

[Keybored]

Keybored's a villager, btw.

Whoop, Whoop!!

[wufwugy]

this is more content than Wuf has posted the entire game. You're a way better play than him, congrats.

This coming from a guy who admitted (straight up admitted!) that I caught him on behavior he calls being a bad villager

If you were a villager, you'd be giving me all sorts of props for that. Instead, you just stick to calling me wolf without giving any reasons

[baudib]

Still waiting for one single case from you for me being a wolf. Just one

It doesn't even matter at this point. You have already proven that you adore talking about your amazing reads and how you're going to reveal them soon, yet then you never do. Wolf 101. Not even 101. Wolf 98

Believe it or not I play poker this same way, but I don't tilt.

[baudib]

Wuf it must crush you that I was a way better wolf coming in on Day 4 than you are now. I suck as a villager but meh you're the WOAT wolf.

[wufwugy]

Believe it or not I play poker this same way, but I don't tilt.

When players in werewolf say they don't reveal what they think because it's super secret, they're not telling the truth

The time for you to put up or shut up already passed. Ye ain't got no reads because you're a wolf. You've said Bikes is a wolf many times, but that's all you've said. You've said I'm a wolf many times, but that's all you've said. You've said you're keeping quiet so the other wolves can reveal themselves, but that's all you've said (what other wolves? There would just be one more after me and bikes right?)

Werewolf is a game of secrets like poker if you're a wolf, not if you're a villager

[wufwugy]

Wuf it must crush you that I was a way better wolf coming in on Day 4 than you are now. I suck as a villager but meh you're the WOAT wolf.

Pray tell, why am I a wolf? Here's chance 83 for you to give us some of the logic behind why you have called me a wolf since the very beginning of the game

[baudib]

I could ask the same of you. If you could do a single villagery thing you would be credible but you haven't. The best case that you SHOULD make is that you wouldn't be this bad to not act villagery. then you could fake claim seer.

As for Bikes his mistakes are more tangible. They're errors in logic and general disinterest. I know this plays up to his image but it goes beyond that. It's also the change in tone from "fra la la day 1 lol" to his more serious/dismissive tone when addressing my accusations.

I don't know who the other wolf is. It's Day 1 and I am not good at this game. I have some suspicions but on my side of the fence most of the team should have confirmed quite a few villagers by now. I think that's the most value I have provided.

[baudib]

p.s. wuf i still love you

[wufwugy]

when you know it's over, you just gotta accept it

[baudib]

also if the wolves nom me tonight that probably means it's less likely Wuf is a wolf.

[BankItDrew]

I've probably read more ong WW posts than any other so I think I have a consistent tell on him. He's a villager this game if I'm right.

ok so lynching noobs is never cool on day 1. day 2 and 3 is a different story. let them at least experience the game a bit and then lynch them when we dont have a lot of good options. if they are wolves then they give themselves away anyway because noobiness. will post more after food. though i feel like this post shoulda been [meta]

This has a wolfy tone to it imo. It stank of a wolf relenquishing the easy strat of lynching noob villagers, but don't forget to carry through with it on day 2/3!

if bid's the angel, he's just going to protect himself, even though he cant. if he's the seer he's just going to look up himself because he'll think he's really the angel and protecting himself. if he's the vig, he'll probably try to shoot the mod because he's mad that he's not the angel so he can protect himself every night

I have a headache irl from laughing so hard.

[baudib]

sorry guys, ill mod next game so you don't have to put up with me

[BankItDrew]

Only read up to where ong first voted wuf. I'd like to show my support for that now because I may not get caught up before the day is over.

lynch wuf

[wufwugy]

Going to bed soon. I'm assuming Day will be over soon

I would prefer to be lynched because if Baudib shows up as villager, I'll take it personally and get too engrossed in the game. I'm an alcoholic of werewolf

The case for Baud being a wolf is stellar. His process is not village. He's not making a case for anything. I don't feel a need to go further into detail. You're gonna have to lynch him after I die

BID is the next best lynch. The case I made about probability of his role being non-vanilla is strong. Also the case I made in just a couple posts above this one is great. Unless he's not truthful about those 200 posts, either it's all just a coincidence or the wolfies told him he's getting heat over the sub

My two least likely wolves are Gray and Rong. Gray because he's doing all sorts of nub-vil reads. Like he thinks he has something with his read on me. He's trying to explain why it's good, but we all know that after a few games under his belt, he'll see why it isn't. Rong for a read I would prefer to not say

Also Bigred. I do think my logic is sound with how he's just a level 1 player who sees what role he gets then has enthusiasm degree based on it

Beware of Ong. If he's a villager, this is a better village game than normal, but if he's a wolf it's also a better wolf game. He said this

I'm going to bed. I'm leaving my vote on wuf in an effort to encourage him to request an extension. I have a feeling it will work.

g'night.

Which suggests he doesn't care who between me and Baud die. I'm not going to extend the deadline, and if he was villaging he would care more about getting his vote on the right player than relying on something like me opting to get it extended


Anyways, good hunting. It has been a productive day. I accept the lynch. I was a baddy in the previous game and this one has too many players who don't have a feel for how I play for me to survive. Kill Baud and BID

[GrayFoxxxx]

If wuf flips wolf im still looking at baud.

[wufwugy]

Actually, if Baud is a wolf, it's worth revisiting the Baud/Gray link. I don't know how strong it is, I'm not going to go back over it. But if Baud is a wolf then there is merit to the idea of just attacking me for dumb reasons. That's usually not how it works though, but sometimes...

[baudib]

i also want to die if wuf is a villager

[BankItDrew]

GatorJH --- (lolzzz_321) bigred

Solid wolf hunting, gats.

Ty or this. 2nd time I lol'd irl while reading this thread.

I'm liking a rilla village.

In general I don't like using posts from old games and trying to apply it to current game

I agree with this sooooo much. I don't mind the labeling of players as certain styles (or as wuf gets pleasure from talking about how bad I am), but I hate the quoting of previous games. This sort of thing should be addressed in future games imo.

Funny how he says you're a wolf yet halfway through page 1 there's no evidence of you being a wolf

Correct me if I'm wrong, but posts per page can be altered under FTR settings. So it'll be different from member to member.

[BankItDrew]

Says the guy who claims to have only read through the first 200 posts, where nobody even mentions what the sub's role could be. Methinks the wolfies told you that you're getting heat because of the subbing. How else would you even think to say the sub means you're such an obvious boring villager if you haven't even read beyond the first 200 posts?

Because I know my role.

[wufwugy]

or as wuf gets pleasure from talking about how bad I am

[baudib]

wuf if you're a villager i apologize. but getting you to concede the lynch is still badass imo

[wufwugy]

Because I know my role.

Except nothing in the first 200 pages would have prompted you to explicitly point this out the way you did

It was either (1) a major coincidence, (2) you read about it earlier but fibbed about only being on post 200, or (3) the wolf den told you about it

There are no other options for why you said what you said the way you said it

[BankItDrew]

I don't even know what you're implying here.

[BankItDrew]

Except nothing in the first 200 pages would have prompted you to explicitly point this out the way you did

It was either (1) a major coincidence, (2) you read about it earlier but fibbed about only being on post 200, or (3) the wolf den told you about it

There are no other options for why you said what you said the way you said it

I don't know what to say. I've been completely honest.

[wufwugy]

wuf if you're a villager i apologize. but getting you to concede the lynch is still badass imo

I'll add that I was quite happy to get villager this time because the makeup of this game is one that I would have a really hard time surviving, and I simply don't want to put in the amount of effort to ward off my lynch that I usually have to.

[baudib]

I told you I love you. you don't have to fuck with me like that. plus i love ur mom

[scourrge]

Funny how he says you're a wolf yet halfway through page 1 there's no evidence of you being a wolf

Fwiw baudib is the only one I know itt, thus the only one I felt I could hop right in and make an auto-accusation of as my WW initiation.

Also didn't realize that there were 400-some posts at the time and there would be another 100+ made in the meantime of me trying to catch up. Was expecting to post again much sooner.

I'll be going to sleep soon, and sitting here in all-out noob-mode, but quick thoughts:

1. wuf-baud dynamic is pretty interesting. 100% they can't BOTH be wolves, cause of all the attention they are dragging to themselves. Unless trying to play some strat where killing off a wolf makes the other appear infallible - but this seems foolish with a seer in-game so I doubt it.

2. baud's non-explanations of his various reads don't really incline me to auto-read him as wolf. he's made some slipups, yes, but from what I understand of his first game, he did quite well as a wolf. so if anything I'd read him more as villager - trying to be a bit overzealous and just making a few mistakes. but then again he entered his first game late, so he may just not have much of an early-game/try to over-compensate with posting activity. I'm torn, but I guess I still lean toward thinking he's a villager.

3. not sure what to make of wuf. says he's okay dying so long as baud is seer'd, and this strikes me as more of a villager move since losing 1 wolf seems a bigger loss to the wolves than losing 1 villager is to the villagers.

So I guess at the moment I'm more worried about some of the less active people, though I don't have enough of a read to vote. My noobiness shows, but oh well. Off for at least a number of hours now. Hopefully there won't be 400 new posts I have to catch up on tomorrow.

[scourrge]

Hi scourrge

oh hey there

[baudib]

are you a wolf?

[bikes]

are you a wolf?

negative. i don't think you are one either fwiw. i mean you gotta know you are getting seer'ed after wtfdominating day 1 right? so you have to be town because it would be downright silly to dominate day 1 discussion and then think you are not getting instalooked up high priority.

[bikes]

i can totally see the thought process behind lynching you just so we dont have to read 120-130 of your posts for one day segment though.

[baudib]

assuming wuf is dead you're the best wolf candidate by far bikes so looking me up is silly.

[bikes]

i dunno whether or not to be insulted that people could believe i would play wolf that badly.

[baudib]

i still wished we could have lynched bikes before wuf

[baudib]

i dunno whether or not to be insulted that people could believe i would play wolf that badly.

i know you'll be harder to make quit than Wuf but I could try.

[baudib]

actually i'm not gonna do that. over the weekend was one thing but i was trying to post at work today and that was a disaster. i can't put too much more effort into this game so i'm going to coast by for as long as i'm alive. i'm sure everyone will be relieved. if Wuf is a villager I'll be too annoyed that I put this much effort into a mislynch.

my feeling on bikes is way less strong than Wuf but his posts are still full of fail and bad advice. And we can be pretty sure that Lolzz/BID is a villager IMO because they both targeted him over other inactives.

[dhubermex]

DAY #1 LYNCH NOMINATIONS

baudib --- 1
bigred --- 6
wufwugy --- 5

_____

a500lbgorilla --- (wufwugy #180) (lolzzz_321 #456) bigred #483
BankItDrew --- wufwugy #539
baudib --- (bikes #91) (bikes #380) wufwugy #424
bigred
bikes --- bigred #488
gabe --- (baudib #415) bigred #491
GatorJH --- (lolzzz_321 #332) bigred #353
GrayFoxxxx --- (baudib #116) (wufwugy #268) (baudib #403) wufwugy #502
Keith --- wufwugy #487
Keybored --- bigred #237
OngBonga --- (baudib) (bigred #204) (baudib #321) (bigred #334) (baudib #375) (baudib #410)(wufwugy #421) (baudib #429) wufwugy #448
rong --- bigred #361
scourrge
SweetClaireRose
wufwugy --- (lolzzz_321 #119) (baudib #131) (bigred #234) (BankItDrew #292) baudib #397

[dhubermex]

The weather was "comin' up a cloud" as bigred walked over to adjust his horseshoe stake before looking for an opponent to pitch against.

"Whatcha' doin'," asked a500lbgorilla. This startled bigred as he whirled around, but he was relieved to see the General Store Manager holding out the peculiar novelty that had so drawn his attention a day earlier.

"Ya see here, there's one peg missin'. You gotta jump over each one until there's only one left, son. C'mon, let me show you how to play."

bigred accompanied rilla to the outskirts of town, where they both knelt below an oak tree. Soon, bigred was totally immersed in the game.

It wasn't long before bikes the pianist joined in on the fun along with gabe, who had taken a break from the card game which had dried up even further since the killings had begun.

As the sun began to set, GatorJH appeared with a portable-sized kettle held by a hand-knitted oven mitt along with a mesh sack of various bowls & utensils. "You guys look hungry," he said as he began to hand out the makeshift dining ware. "I brought ya'll a lil' somethin' for the show."

"Show? I like shows," exclaimed bigred, barely holding back his enthusiasm.

"Well that's good to hear, seeing how you're the star n' all," came a voice from cattle rustler Keybored, who bigred noticed had brought a worn yet reliable rope.

"You ca... can.... can't be serious," gasped bigred. He stood up but was quickly surrounded by his colleagues.

"M' afraid so," sighed rong, who had arrived with a leather satchel. "If it makes you feel any better, we voted on it."

"Well it doesn't," cried bigred as the companions finished tying the rope around a sturdy branch of the oak tree.

A noose was promptly tightened around bigred's neck as the rest of the citizenry appeared.

"It... it wasn't me!" Those were the last words bigred uttered before being strung up. As he flailed helplessly in his final moments, a single blue peg fell from his hand.

bigred was a Regular Villager.

[dhubermex]

Day #1 has ended!

14 Players Remaining

a500lbgorilla
BankItDrew
baudib
bigred (Lynched --- Day #1)
bikes
gabe
GatorJH
GrayFoxxxx
Keith
Keybored
OngBonga
rong
scourrge
SweetClaireRose
wufwugy

8 Regular Villagers
1 Every Night Angel
1 Odd Night Seer
1 Even Night Vigilante
3 Wolves

[dhubermex]

Night #1 has begun!

Night #1 will last until Tuesday, 7:00pm Eastern Time (approximately 16 hours).

Angel: Please send me one target player to protect via PM if you wish to act.
Seer: Please send me one target player to identify via PM if you wish to act.
Wolves: Please inform me of one target player to devour via PM or Den post if you wish to act.

This thread is temporarily locked during the Night #1 Cycle.

[dhubermex]

Substitution #3

Luco has replaced SweetClaireRose.

SweetClaireRose is OUT due to inactivity.

Luco has been sent his role via PM and is welcome to post in this thread once Day #2 begins.

[dhubermex]

14 Players Remaining

a500lbgorilla
BankItDrew
baudib
bigred (Lynched --- Day #1)
bikes
gabe
GatorJH
GrayFoxxxx
Keith
Keybored
Luco
OngBonga
rong
scourrge
wufwugy

8 Regular Villagers
1 Every Night Angel
1 Odd Night Seer
1 Even Night Vigilante
3 Wolves

[dhubermex]

The Narrator is still awaiting actions from nighttime "Specials" and/or Wolves.

"Specials" and Wolves, please send me your requests asap if you have yet to do so.

[dhubermex]

The sun rose just enough to illuminate the city of Gold Rush.

Although it was barely past 6:00am, the town was bustling with activity... mostly due to curiosity over whether the killings had continued.

The cast walked into the saloon and were greeted by a scream. Luco was dead!

His body had been chewed to pieces and left just outside his living quarters where he worked as the Brothel Manager... a gaping cavity in the center of his chest where his heart had been extracted.

"Goodness gracious," cried Flo, who had just arrived for her daytime shift in time to hustle silver grain & gold dust from lonely morning patrons.

The cast of characters was now down to 13, but at the moment there seemed to be a commotion upstairs in the saloon.

"...And you two, get your flea-bitten rear ends to work," came a voice from Clementine Sr. "Me n' my daughter are in charge now, and ya'll best do what we say or you can find another town to tramp around in!"

All of the friends looked at one another. The nighttime occurrences were still fresh on everyone's minds. The characters had been through a lot recently, but all nodded to each other near the saloon annex staircase in knowing agreement as the elder female's coaxing reverberated from up above.

If the Clementines wanted to run the whores, then more power to 'em.

Luco was a Regular Villager.

And with that, Day #2 began...

Day #2 has begun!

13 Players Remaining

a500lbgorilla
BankItDrew
baudib
bigred (Lynched --- Day #1)
bikes
gabe
GatorJH
GrayFoxxxx
Keith
Keybored
Luco (Eaten --- Night #1)
OngBonga
rong
scourrge
wufwugy

7 Regular Villagers
1 Every Night Angel
1 Odd Night Seer
1 Even Night Vigilante
3 Wolves

This Day #2 Cycle will last approximately 72 hours and end on Friday, 22nd, at 7:00pm Eastern Time.

Majority Lynch = 7 Votes

All remaining players are now welcome to post in this thread.

[baudib]

gg Luco

Wufwugy has given us a gold mine of information, just as I told him he would. He's given us 4 confirmed villagers and 1 wolf. Dude is better for us than 2 live seers.

We can assume most of his would-be goodbye post is lies and all but confirm Ong and BID as villagers. We can probably confirm Scourrge as a villager too based on him replacing Lolzz, who was the favored target of Wuf and Bikes.


The really interesting part is this


My two least likely wolves are Gray and Rong. Gray because he's doing all sorts of nub-vil reads. Like he thinks he has something with his read on me. He's trying to explain why it's good, but we all know that after a few games under his belt, he'll see why it isn't. Rong for a read I would prefer to not say



From last game when Wuf the turncoat wanted to reach out to villager Rong, we can safely assume this "secret tell" is B.S.; Wuf doesn't have a better read on Rong than anyone else does. But I think Rong is probably a villager. Rong is Wuf's Hail Mary pass, he still thinks he can win. In case Rong gets nommed or seered or lynched and come back villager, he can say, "I told you so."


But he actually goes into detail on why Gray is a lock-villager. He then adds later what he says is the only scenario in which Gray can be a wolf: He's a wolf with me. Ergo, when I flip villager, Gray must be villager too? Heh


Wuf has tried to tie Gray to me several times despite the fact that I've been the only person who was actively suspicious of him. Their interactions read as contrived, attempts to distance themselves from each other. He would absolutely try to give a wolf cover in what could be his last post and think he's too clever for us to figure it out.


Wuf gave us the most hidden wolf. Wuf should be kept alive til end game.


Lynch GrayFoxxx

[BankItDrew]

I though GF was fishy too. I'm good with that.

lynch greyfoxxxxxxx

I think luco is a replacement player. Did either of them even make a single post?

[wufwugy]

Yikes

[BankItDrew]

I really hate the strat of "so and so is a lock wolf so let's keep them around".

If you think there is a strong chance of someone being a wolf, I suggest making sure rather than keeping them alive. Kill a wolf when you can!

If I switch my vote today (good chance) it'll probably go to wuf.

Also, not so interesting that the wolves nommed an inactive.

[baudib]

Didn't even occur to me how ridiculous that nom is. We'll need a mercy rule stoppage on this game.

[BankItDrew]

It's a safe bet bdub had that big Day 2 post prepared before finding out who got nommed. Slim chance he writes all of that, checking the mods post, all in less than 7 minutes of the moment when the mod clicked "submit".

Not entirely sure ehat that means.

[BankItDrew]

Didn't even occur to me how ridiculous that nom is. We'll need a mercy rule stoppage on this game.

It's not redic at all.

It provides the least info for the village.

You patting your team on the back with that post?

[OngBonga]

Which suggests he doesn't care who between me and Baud die. I'm not going to extend the deadline, and if he was villaging he would care more about getting his vote on the right player than relying on something like me opting to get it extended

No wuf, I just naively thought that you'd realise those extra few hours might have been golden for the village, and when you throw in the fact you're one of the leading wagons, I figured your hand was forced too. Silly me.

luco kill is either gator, or designed to look like gator. Who would know that gator considers luco a threat? Someone who reads old wolf den threads maybe?

luco kill is baudib trying to frame gator. There's a fucking soulread. wuf you got nothing on me.

[BankItDrew]

Time to stir shit up. Bdud is making me uneasy anyways.

rescind
lynch baudib

[baudib]

It's not redic at all.

It provides the least info for the village.

You patting your team on the back with that post?

fair enough but seems like a waste.

[baudib]

It's a safe bet bdub had that big Day 2 post prepared before finding out who got nommed. Slim chance he writes all of that, checking the mods post, all in less than 7 minutes of the moment when the mod clicked "submit".

Not entirely sure ehat that means.

yep i had it typed up before leaving work and stored it on my phone.

[wufwugy]

Baudib is a wolf here almost always. If he's not a wolf, it means he has quite a strange personality (maybe he does, I don't know). Virtually any villager who thinks I'm such a wolf would go after ME, not after people not named me based on a read he has on me. It's strange for a villager to be so ultra confident in a read that he doesn't even need to confirmation of my role to go after others. I think this is all a plan from the wolves. I'll explain further soon. Regardless, Baud is behaving unlike any villager we've ever seen and is refusing to acknowledge any of the things that demonstrate that I'm a villager. I hope it isn't just his inexperience, but I doubt it. Both he and I thought I was dead yesterday


I think the nom is deliberate. I think the wolf team is at least two high profile regs. I don't think they are afraid of the seer (due to half as many lookups) so they're not special hunting. I think they want to keep as many high profile players around as possible so they can hide better and point the finger better

If this is their plan and it involves Baudib trying to destroy me, they'll win. Not so much the game, but they will beat me. It makes sense that Baud wants me alive till the end, since that's the time I've always bragged about being the best. I don't have it in me anymore though

My guesses for wolf teams right now includes mainly Baud Bikes Gabe BID Keith and Ong. I think all of them would be game with the Luco kill and the FPS and sending Baud hounding after me. Gator, Rilla, and Rong would be less inclined to go in that direction, but not entirely I guess

Anyways, the last time I thought the wolves were scheming like this, I was wrong. But the Luco lynch changes things. I think the most probable explanation is they're trying to be tricky

[wufwugy]

No wuf, I just naively thought that you'd realise those extra few hours might have been golden for the village, and when you throw in the fact you're one of the leading wagons, I figured your hand was forced too. Silly me.

luco kill is either gator, or designed to look like gator. Who would know that gator considers luco a threat? Someone who reads old wolf den threads maybe?

luco kill is baudib trying to frame gator. There's a fucking soulread. wuf you got nothing on me.

Why does Gator come first to mind for this?

[wufwugy]

gg Luco

It's a safe bet bdub had that big Day 2 post prepared before finding out who got nommed. Slim chance he writes all of that, checking the mods post, all in less than 7 minutes of the moment when the mod clicked "submit".

yep i had it typed up before leaving work and stored it on my phone.

Soooo, let me get this straight: Baud had that typed up before the nom reveal but went back and added "gg luco", then BID evaluates the timing of the posts and concludes that it probably means that Baud typed it up before the nom reveal?

Or they covered this in the wolfchat.

[BankItDrew]

I don't think baud is lying about having that post ready to go, then just added the gg luco thing.

[baudib]

Yay at least you're trying now Wuf. Ain't gonna be no fun if you're just mopey and dumb.

[baudib]

Epic post(s) incoming

[scourrge]

Baudib is a wolf here almost always. If he's not a wolf, it means he has quite a strange personality (maybe he does, I don't know). Virtually any villager who thinks I'm such a wolf would go after ME, not after people not named me based on a read he has on me. It's strange for a villager to be so ultra confident in a read that he doesn't even need to confirmation of my role to go after others. I think this is all a plan from the wolves. I'll explain further soon. Regardless, Baud is behaving unlike any villager we've ever seen and is refusing to acknowledge any of the things that demonstrate that I'm a villager. I hope it isn't just his inexperience, but I doubt it. Both he and I thought I was dead yesterday


I think the nom is deliberate. I think the wolf team is at least two high profile regs. I don't think they are afraid of the seer (due to half as many lookups) so they're not special hunting. I think they want to keep as many high profile players around as possible so they can hide better and point the finger better

If this is their plan and it involves Baudib trying to destroy me, they'll win. Not so much the game, but they will beat me. It makes sense that Baud wants me alive till the end, since that's the time I've always bragged about being the best. I don't have it in me anymore though

My guesses for wolf teams right now includes mainly Baud Bikes Gabe BID Keith and Ong. I think all of them would be game with the Luco kill and the FPS and sending Baud hounding after me. Gator, Rilla, and Rong would be less inclined to go in that direction, but not entirely I guess

Anyways, the last time I thought the wolves were scheming like this, I was wrong. But the Luco lynch changes things. I think the most probable explanation is they're trying to be tricky

Pretty interesting. I think with all the heat being thrown wuf's way I was expecting to feel like he was more of a wolf, but the sentiments here make me feel the opposite. Wuf actually seems legit like he doesn't care about getting lynched, more about winning "himself" or being right. Kind of self-oriented focus, but tbh I feel like if he WAS a wolf there would be more of a non self-oriented focus. He'd try to at least hint at a "good of the village vibe." Is that crazy/does that make any sense?

luco def didn't post, not sure what this means in terms of wolf strat though. it could be that baud or wuf are villagers, and the wolves think that everyone is close to consensus on lynching one of them (it's swung back and forth a bit, but mostly focused on them), so it'd be a waste to nom one. aside from that I don't understand the reasoning at all - could just be to be as confusing as possible, and not really associate the death to anyone.

Back to baud, not convinced he's a villager, but wuf's arguments aren't convincing me he's wolfish either. For one thing, no one has seen baud play villager, and baud's first game involved him as the last wolf, coming in late. He had to be extremely into the action, thinking on more levels than he probably should have been, etc. I kind of feel like that's just carrying over here, and his so-called unfounded reads might just be experimentation with early-game villager strat.

It's hard for me to comment on others who have participated less, simply because I don't have much experience, but a couple things jump out about BID. It seems to me he hasn't posted tons, but has overall been willing to offer lynch suggestions. this strikes me as a wolfish strategy, hoping to start ripples toward consensus without having to go too in-depth about his own thought process. but I'm also a bit confused because he has changed vote a couple times recently. first to grayfox (jumping to consensus with baudib), then to baudib (with only 2 not-super-insightful posts from baudib in between). but in between THOSE, he claimed he might switch his vote to wuf (but didn't).

if I could see where he was drawing his conclusions from I might sense less of a wolf vibe from it. maybe I'm just not reading enough into baudib's pre-written post, or don't understand it well, but I don't know what to make of all the lynch-vote jumping.

[scourrge]

Epic post(s) incoming

or I'm just slow.

[baudib]

Wanna go back at some of the history of me early on Day 1 and the reasons GrayFoxxx gave me a weird feeling. And try to recall my gut feeling at the time

Post 88 -- my vig strat postPost 91 -- I bold Bikes
In retrospect I wish I had taken more time between the strat post, to see reaction to it, and then bolding Bikes


Post 94 -- Gabe mostly agrees with my strat, adding that the vig should try to soul read the bottom 5 instead of randomizing it.


Post 95 -- I tell Gabe that my post should be enough to put wolves on high alert.


Posts 97-98 -- Keith picks apart my strat post and does so in great detail. This post actually makes me feel really good about Keith.


Post 99 -- Bikes quotes Keith's post but does IMO an awful job of expanding on it. Bikes doesn't mention me bolding him nor does he mention Gabe's endorsement, which sets even more alarm bells off for me on Bikes.


Post 112 -- Rong also disagrees with strat post, but I think this may have been mostly intended so he could make a joke about Ong.


Post 113 -- I say I'm not interested in debating strat post and that it already had the intended effect.


Post 116 -- GrayFoxx's reads list. Very shallow as he admitted. He bolds me

The posting of the strat, but not wanting to defend it. Says he has wolves nailed down with no evidence. Not 100 percent on him being scum, but this is all I got.

Post 119 -- wufwugy bolds lolzz


Post 122 -- Bikes post mentioning me bolding him

while i think baudib is lols for the opening me lynch what a day 1 strat that would be if he was wolf. probably village but i can come back to this at a later time also there are probably a bunch of better choices. like triptanes!

Keep in mind that Bikes later says the reason he hasn't contributed is because he's useless until Day 4.


Posts 125-126 -- Keith wants another go at me, I try to diffuse it


Post 131:
Wuf bolds me for "acting too confident of his reads" and says if I'm a wolf, GrayFoxxxx is a wolf quite often. If I was 99% sure that Wuf was a wolf after Night 0, this clinches it. His rationale is ridiculous. I'm certain he's trying to tie me to GrayFoxxxx as a distancing play. There are plenty of others he could have tied me to that make more sense, for instance: Gabe, Ong, even Bikes at this point.


Then some posts talking about me reading old game threads.


Post 140:
Now Wuf switches to saying me and Ong are wolf partners.

WTF LOL

Post 151:
I told Wuf he's not putting any effort into proving I'm a wolf


Posts 160-165:
GrayFoxxx starts piling on me
I like this one

How are you so sure who's who already? If you are town, how did you expect wolves to react? Did you seta trap by voting Bikes, or do you think HE is a wolf?

Very much echoes the sentiment from Wuf, who said I was "too confident" in my reads. Since when is that a crime? Grandiose statements on Day 1 are fairly common, and should hardly arouse suspicion.

I'm pretty sure I have these two totally alarmed now.

[GatorJH]

luco kill is either gator, or designed to look like gator. Who would know that gator considers luco a threat? Someone who reads old wolf den threads maybe?

luco kill is baudib trying to frame gator. There's a fucking soulread. wuf you got nothing on me.

Wait what? To be completely honest I don't consider anyone a threat whether I am a wolf or a villager.

[baudib]

In Post 163, GF addresses Wuf's theory that GF and I are wolves together and now suggests that I and Wuf are wolves together.

Catch 22 for me. If I'm right and he is a wolf, I'm a wolf. If you are saying this because of my vote, its wierd that you are second to vote him.

It would make me your scapegoat if you are the other wolf, and you 2 are trying to create distance from each other.

Your saying his confidence is wolfish is wierd because there is none.This could be you giving a false reason to vote him if you are wolf.

He has acted like his bandwagon is a waste of time. Seems like a good wolf strat, not confidence.

This post feels very awkward to me. He seems rather philosophical about being accused of being a wolf partner with someone he has bolded right now. Seems contrived.


I don't know what this means, but he points out this

Edit post-
Didn't mean to say other wolf as if there were only 2. I am used to there being 2 baddies in my phrasing.

Ong is the expert on POV slips so I'll leave it to him to interpret


GrayFoxxx to me in 171

But you say your vote on Bikes was a joke aka no info. This leaves alot of room for confusion.

173
Me addressing GrayFoxxxx

I never said my vote on Bikes was a joke and I'm quite happy with my vote where it stands.

176
Rilla's entire post: Wuf's a wolf, you guys


Now, I'm not trying to cast a shadow on Rilla, because I think he's villager. But notice how he basically acted super confident of his read without giving details, as he has often this game (Keybored's a villager) and Wuf and GrayFoxxx haven't attacked him for it.


Wuf would know that given the choice between me and Rilla, it'd be easier to take on me. Even if we basically did the same thing. Rilla bolds Wuf in Post 180.


Post 183
I'm loving Rilla and I post Most Interesting Guy in the World Wolfwugy meme.


Post 193
Wuf doesn't even mention Rilla and says "Ain't buying anything Baud is selling." WTF, why the need to jump on people for DAy 1 reads? How about defending against the fact that you're a wolf?


Post 194
(3 minutes later)
GrayFoxxx back at me again, but now says he has Wuf as a wolf.


I'm now thinking this is the most clumsy and awkward distancing attempt in history.


Post 196
Rilla says he thought Bikes was wolfy


Post 197
I pick apart GF's reads list and point out he didn't even mention Wuf.


Post 198
Rilla goes after Wuf for going after me

I rather think it's classic wolf to line up a great lynch on principle in lolzzz, commit to it day 1, then put in great effort to justify your pivot to a promising wagon.

Post 207, Wuf addresses a post GF made to Rilla, as if he is talking to GF. And doesn't seem to notice that Rilla has been making pretty bold statements about him and doesn't address Rilla at all. Nope, it's all about me.

Post 208, Wuf addresses GF, finally mentioning Rilla, say

What accusations? Rilla provided zero, until just now

He finally answers Rilla in 211, in a totally non-aggressive way

I always do the former, but also usually find a different target when something comes up since nobody ever likes following my "great lynch on principle", as you say. The latter isn't a great effort. I would think you'd see that. Besides, I anticipate the amount of vilcred I will get this game is much less than normal because of the last game, so I expect to get the losing side of things more often

Bolded part mine. Wuf putting out there the idea that people will think he's wolfy this game.

This is so unlike Wuf to not address/target/dismiss someone who is making accusations against him that I think everyone has to notice. Wuf does not want to take on Rilla.

[GatorJH]

I am pretty sold on a Baudib lynch today. Even if he is a villager the wall of posts make it impossible to be valuable to the village imo.

[baudib]

Glad you made it to Day 2 Gator

[BankItDrew]

It's hard for me to comment on others who have participated less, simply because I don't have much experience, but a couple things jump out about BID. It seems to me he hasn't posted tons, but has overall been willing to offer lynch suggestions. this strikes me as a villagish strategy, hoping to start ripples toward consensus

if I could see where he was drawing his conclusions from I might sense more of a village vibe from it. maybe I'm just not reading enough into baudib's pre-written post, or don't understand it well, but I don't know what to make of all the lynch-vote jumping.

fyp

I'm sort of changing my mind frequently, but also simply slinging pasta to the wall.

[scourrge]

read baud's monster post. didn't absorb much cause tired.

agree that over-stated day 1 reads aren't grounds for concern, but similarly, wuf and others jumping on the over-stated day 1 reads are over-stated day 1 reads themselves, aren't they? so does that make them suspicious or just having day 1 shenanigans themselves? my head hurts. definitely bedtime.

try not to post another 140 times while I'm gone baud.

[scourrge]

fyp

I'm sort of changing my mind frequently, but also simply slinging pasta to the wall.

thanks for bolding changes - I would have been confused as hell otherwise lol. if you can explain to me why the strategy is more villagish than wolfish instead of just stating that it is, I'd be more inclined to not be suspicious.

[BankItDrew]

I am pretty sold on a Baudib lynch today. Even if he is a villager the wall of posts make it impossible to be valuable to the village imo.

I'd like to know why this is your opinion.

Imo the more someone posts content, the more info about themselves we receive.

Re: scourrge's comment to me about no posting much, it's because I didn't get a chance to play until late Day 1.

The fact that bdub has participated by far more than any other player, makes him a valuable piece to the village.

rescind

I bolded him an hour ago for no good reason other than for the pasta.

[BankItDrew]

thanks for bolding changes - I would have been confused as hell otherwise lol. if you can explain to me why the strategy is more villagish than wolfish instead of just stating that it is, I'd be more inclined to not be suspicious.

By offering lynch suggestions it creates talk, which is good. If no one gave any info, or very little, the village is simple shooting at a target in the dark.

To be fair though, I may have been a little too crazy with the bolding and rescinding today so far.

[baudib]

village priority should be figuring out if one none or both of me and Wuf are wolves. i volunteer to self-lynch if we lynch wuf. or vig can shoot me after lynching Wuf. can anyone really argue with that plan?