FTR Werewolf: Gold Rush (Carbon Poker Freeroll)

[BankItDrew]

thanks for bolding changes - I would have been confused as hell otherwise lol. if you can explain to me why the strategy is more villagish than wolfish instead of just stating that it is, I'd be more inclined to not be suspicious.

Also, I was trying to point out the vagueness in your logic. It is in a sense, ironic, because you provide no reason for thinking it is wolfish.

[BankItDrew]

village priority should be figuring out if one none or both of me and Wuf are wolves. i volunteer to self-lynch if we lynch wuf. or vig can shoot me after lynching Wuf. can anyone really argue with that plan?

If we lynch wuf today and he flips village, vig should shoot you. Waiting to maybe lynch you day 3 is a long time away.

If wuf flips wolf then you're in the clear imo.

I'd like to mention that not lynching one of wuf or bdub today is redic.

[BankItDrew]

lynch wuf

[GrayFoxxxx]

Vote Wuf

Baudib left out alot of stuff between those quotes. He knows this.

Nice Judo trying to put wuf on me. You even try to sugar coat your weak case that I am a wolf with wuf by saying our distancing is "awkward". I'm sure it would look awkward since it isn't what your twisting it to be.

I'm sticking with my wuf vote. Voting Baud if wuf wagon isn't big by the end of the day.

Baud also says wuf is good for the village, but I am a wolf with him? I dont get this. He would call Wuf out on his bad play( giving away rolls), and also expect him to keep doing it until end game? Wth

Like I said him and wuf are creating distance, but now he steals my arguement and backs it up with out of context quotes.

[GrayFoxxxx]

Lynch wuf

[scourrge]

By offering lynch suggestions it creates talk, which is good. If no one gave any info, or very little, the village is simple shooting at a target in the dark.

To be fair though, I may have been a little too crazy with the bolding and rescinding today so far.

Hmm. That does make sense, but the bolding and rescinding was def a bit insane. I'll mull this over more tomorrow I suppose.

As for baudib's statement about lynching himself and wuf, I understand the statement, but at the same time it kind of doesn't make sense to me? Like, what wolf in their right mind would make that offer just to get rid of a strong villager unless they had reason to believe they were an OP special or something? And didn't wuf make a similar offer? So how can either be a wolf? Just seems like such a risky offer -> breakeven at best, prob -EV for any wolf.

I'm off to bed for real this time, I swear.

[GrayFoxxxx]

I'd like to mention that not lynching one of wuf or bdub today is redic.

Your read on me is wrong, but I agree with this.

[scourrge]

Ugh I'm too slow of a poster. People keep putting stuff in while I'm typing.

Also, I was trying to point out the vagueness in your logic. It is in a sense, ironic, because you provide no reason for thinking it is wolfish.

Oh, fair enough. I was thinking it was wolfish because it seemed like you were throwing out semi-random lynch votes just to get people lynched, rather than piecing together who might be a wolf and voting based on that. That was my perception, but I guess the fact that you threw multiple changes around actually kind of goes against that. And I guess I see how it could be more village-oriented because putting heat on people makes them give more info.

[baudib]

Vote Wuf

Baudib left out alot of stuff between those quotes. He knows this.

Nice Judo trying to put wuf on me. You even try to sugar coat your weak case that I am a wolf with wuf by saying our distancing is "awkward". I'm sure it would look awkward since it isn't what your twisting it to be.

I'm sticking with my wuf vote. Voting Baud if wuf wagon isn't big by the end of the day.

Baud also says wuf is good for the village, but I am a wolf with him? I dont get this. He would call Wuf out on his bad play( giving away rolls), and also expect him to keep doing it until end game? Wth

Like I said him and wuf are creating distance, but now he steals my arguement and backs it up with out of context quotes.

Notice the difference in tone when GF responds to me saying he and Wuf are wolves together, compared to when Wuf said GF and I were wolves together.

Wuf offered a lynch one/seer one, which is a totally different thing. His attempt to sacrifice his life for a seer reveal.

[BankItDrew]

As for baudib's statement about lynching himself and wuf, I understand the statement, but at the same time it kind of doesn't make sense to me? Like, what wolf in their right mind would make that offer just to get rid of a strong villager unless they had reason to believe they were an OP special or something? And didn't wuf make a similar offer? So how can either be a wolf? Just seems like such a risky offer -> breakeven at best, prob -EV for any wolf.

what would be crazy is if wuf and bdub were both wolves but they got carried away. Now that they are both on the top of many peoples list, they figure what the hell... If one of us goes down, at least the other looks like a lock villager.

[BankItDrew]

Notice the difference in tone when GF responds to me saying he and Wuf are wolves together, compared to when Wuf said GF and I were wolves together.

Wuf offered a lynch one/seer one, which is a totally different thing. His attempt to sacrifice his life for a seer reveal.

The fact that wuf "offered" to be seen vs you "offering" to be lynched, makes no difference to me.

[BankItDrew]

Editing spelling typos is still cool, right?

[dhubermex]

Editing spelling typos is still cool, right?

It's best not to. I know it's a pain (and I made this mistake recently in my first WW match), but not being able to edit even typos is part of the game--especially when there are such heavy contributors like we have in this thread.

As long as the ban on player edits is global I think it's fair.

[gabe]

village priority should be figuring out if one none or both of me and Wuf are wolves. i volunteer to self-lynch if we lynch wuf. or vig can shoot me after lynching Wuf. can anyone really argue with that plan?

yea because there's a decent chance you 2 are just spewing so much that you are drawn into the wolf spotlight. By the end of the day we should have more to go on but no need to lock in to that plan

I'm trying to make a perfect case on someone..

[baudib]

fair enough Gabe. We need your leadership, along with Rilla, Gator, Keith, etc.

[baudib]

just thought though, if Gabe and Gator are wolves we'll lose like 100%

[wufwugy]

Yay at least you're trying now Wuf. Ain't gonna be no fun if you're just mopey and dumb.

I don't believe you believe a single thing you say

[wufwugy]

just thought though, if Gabe and Gator are wolves we'll lose like 100%

Jesus fucking Christ. You can't be a villager. You simply can't. You ALREADY have a list of me gray and bikes of virtually confirmed wolves

If both you and BID are villagers, I swear to god he is kicking your ass on the logic this game

[GrayFoxxxx]

Also Baud voting wuf day 1, and day 2 he says wuf needs to stick around until end game. Your actions and words are almost opposite.

[wufwugy]

village priority should be figuring out if one none or both of me and Wuf are wolves. i volunteer to self-lynch if we lynch wuf. or vig can shoot me after lynching Wuf. can anyone really argue with that plan?

I notice that you refrained from saying lynch yourself and have the vig shoot me. But guess what? I'm totally cool with saying that about myself

Dear players, if you are not convinced that Baud is a wolf more often than I am a wolf, lynch me, only me, and nobody but me. Then vig, after I flip villager, shoot him in his slobbering face. If the vig happens to not do that, lynch him tomorrow 100% of the time.

lynch baud

[wufwugy]

Pretty interesting. I think with all the heat being thrown wuf's way I was expecting to feel like he was more of a wolf, but the sentiments here make me feel the opposite. Wuf actually seems legit like he doesn't care about getting lynched, more about winning "himself" or being right. Kind of self-oriented focus, but tbh I feel like if he WAS a wolf there would be more of a non self-oriented focus. He'd try to at least hint at a "good of the village vibe." Is that crazy/does that make any sense?

luco def didn't post, not sure what this means in terms of wolf strat though. it could be that baud or wuf are villagers, and the wolves think that everyone is close to consensus on lynching one of them (it's swung back and forth a bit, but mostly focused on them), so it'd be a waste to nom one. aside from that I don't understand the reasoning at all - could just be to be as confusing as possible, and not really associate the death to anyone.

Back to baud, not convinced he's a villager, but wuf's arguments aren't convincing me he's wolfish either. For one thing, no one has seen baud play villager, and baud's first game involved him as the last wolf, coming in late. He had to be extremely into the action, thinking on more levels than he probably should have been, etc. I kind of feel like that's just carrying over here, and his so-called unfounded reads might just be experimentation with early-game villager strat.

It's hard for me to comment on others who have participated less, simply because I don't have much experience, but a couple things jump out about BID. It seems to me he hasn't posted tons, but has overall been willing to offer lynch suggestions. this strikes me as a wolfish strategy, hoping to start ripples toward consensus without having to go too in-depth about his own thought process. but I'm also a bit confused because he has changed vote a couple times recently. first to grayfox (jumping to consensus with baudib), then to baudib (with only 2 not-super-insightful posts from baudib in between). but in between THOSE, he claimed he might switch his vote to wuf (but didn't).

if I could see where he was drawing his conclusions from I might sense less of a wolf vibe from it. maybe I'm just not reading enough into baudib's pre-written post, or don't understand it well, but I don't know what to make of all the lynch-vote jumping.

I get an itching, crawling sensation at the first bolded section. That is just too specific of my personal sensibilities for a brand-newb to know. This has to have been discussed in the wolfchat. My rep is very much that my village play is narcissistic and focused on "winning himself or being right". The "good of the village thing" is also something that can be legitimately said about how I played turncoat. I doubt scourge would know this if somebody didn't tell him. The rhetoric is not the kind nubs use in the first place

The second bolded section is as if Baud himself explained it. How confident are we that scourge has examined that game enough to know this?

[baudib]

I would never do this as a wolf. Last game as a wolf, I almost never made accusations against anyone. I made fun of people from time to time for being silly villagers, but mainly I defended people and pointed out errors in logic. I never went bananas accusing someone of being a wolf.

Wuf, this will be my last post to you for at least several hours. I'm not going to go back and forth. I want you to stick around because it'll be fun playing with you. Bikes and GrayFoxx aren't nearly as entertaining.

Early on, you bolded me because I was too confident in my reads, so I must be a wolf? And now you're saying I can't be a villager because I entertained a different possibility? That makes no sense. I think the chances of Gabe and Gator both being wolves is fairly small, but if it is, it'll be bad for the village. Have you considered the possibility that they're wolves? I contend you have never spent a single second thinking of the possibility of anyone being a wolf because you have perfect knowledge.

yeah I think the most likely wolf pairing is you and GF, and I think Bikes is the wolfiest other person out there. I'm not 100% on any of that. But if you're a wolf I am pretty sure that you tried to make cover for GF. We need to lynch you first because I know I'm not a wolf. If you're a villager I need to die as some sort of penance, and we need to start all over and I won't be any help.

I'll never believe you actually gave up last night as an innocent.

Post #65

btw the best way to catch me as a wolf is to tell me im a bad wolf or that you caught me. i was soooooooo close to just going bananas last game because ong did that. im weird in that i care more in being theoretically sound than in getting results

Pretty sure this is you going bananas Wuf!

[baudib]

I get an itching, crawling sensation at the first bolded section. That is just too specific of my personal sensibilities for a brand-newb to know. This has to have been discussed in the wolfchat. My rep is very much that my village play is narcissistic and focused on "winning himself or being right". The "good of the village thing" is also something that can be legitimately said about how I played turncoat. I doubt scourge would know this if somebody didn't tell him. The rhetoric is not the kind nubs use in the first place

The second bolded section is as if Baud himself explained it. How confident are we that scourge has examined that game enough to know this?

I talk to scourrge almost every day. I told him about last game while I was playing it. I told him that we can't talk about the game outside the thread and we've both respected that.

[baudib]

but i don't think i've ever talked to scourrge about any specific players because he doesn't post here and wouldn't know any of it. I might have mentioned Gator as a fearsome wolf but that's about it. He's pretty much a boy wonder genius and will probably figure a lot out from context that will surprise you.

[wufwugy]

Early on, you bolded me because I was too confident in my reads, so I must be a wolf? And now you're saying I can't be a villager because I entertained a different possibility? That makes no sense. I think the chances of Gabe and Gator both being wolves is fairly small, but if it is, it'll be bad for the village. Have you considered the possibility that they're wolves? I contend you have never spent a single second thinking of the possibility of anyone being a wolf because you have perfect knowledge.

You are not presenting any change of heart based on new information. You still haven't explained why I'm a wolf. You have been up my ass since the very beginning no matter what, and you have not backed your position up whatsoever

I'm having a hard time figuring out what the craziest thing you've said all game is. It's probably that you think I'm a lock wolf yet want to keep me around till the end. That's dumb. Not just dumb, but dumb dumb. Double dumb. No villager in the history of the game has ever been convinced somebody is a wolf yet opt to leave them around for an entire game and instead lynch other players based on perceived connections to that player. It's shit like this that makes your death mandatory. If you're a villager, I'm sorry man, but you gotta accept that the village can't be having people posting like that

I'll never believe you actually gave up last night as an innocent.

I suggest you clean your spectacles.

Pretty sure this is you going bananas Wuf!

Which is it: bananas or giving up? It can't be both

[wufwugy]

Baud also says wuf is good for the village, but I am a wolf with him? I dont get this. He would call Wuf out on his bad play( giving away rolls), and also expect him to keep doing it until end game? Wth

You're spot on. If Baud has an unusual personality he might play like this, but if he thinks about WW the same way that almost every other player does, he wouldn't play like this

[rong]

I stopped reading some time after post 450. I'm gonna have to read everything since then to out the details of the wuf / baudib thing as it appears it is going to dominate the day again.

[gabe]

what if wuf and baudib didnt direct a post at eachother all of day 2

[rong]

what if wuf and baudib didnt direct a post at eachother all of day 2

I swear to fuck if baudib posts something along the lines of "rong, can you ask wuf why......., because I'm not talking to him" I'm quitting.

[wufwugy]

hey rong would you tell baud he's a stupidface

[baudib]

what if wuf and baudib didnt direct a post at eachother all of day 2

i'll agree to this.

[GrayFoxxxx]

i'll agree to this.

Why would a town who says wuf is a wolf do this.

[baudib]

village needs clarity. think and digest everything. confusion only helps wolves. i've put a lot of information out there and my views of the situation, everyone can go back and look at it.

i'll add that having other people's views would help IMO. views on anything, so other people hear other voices. Rilla and BID and Ong have weighed in but a lot of people have just been silent.

i'll leave you guys at it.

[BankItDrew]

I've never seen a village tell two players to stfu like this. People tell bigred all the time to contribute and stfu with the cat photos but this is different. This is entertaining.

My guesstimations on the relationship between the two are as follows:

wuf:bdub 2 villagers - 10%
wuf:bdub 1 villager 1 wolf - 75%
wif:bdub 2 wolves - 15%

I placed the double wolf higher than double villy because I have respect for wuf's game. I head baudib did well in his freshman game too.

This game feels like it's still in a Day 1 stage because there's very little to go on.

First we lynched an inactive, then the wolves nommed an inactive, and now it's still just a bunch of Day 1 carry over banter between the ambiguously WW duo.

[BankItDrew]

I head baudib

And this is why I wish the spelling typo availability to be reinstated.

[a500lbgorilla]

gg Luco

Wufwugy has given us a gold mine of information, just as I told him he would. He's given us 4 confirmed villagers and 1 wolf. Dude is better for us than 2 live seers.

We can assume most of his would-be goodbye post is lies and all but confirm Ong and BID as villagers. We can probably confirm Scourrge as a villager too based on him replacing Lolzz, who was the favored target of Wuf and Bikes.


The really interesting part is this


My two least likely wolves are Gray and Rong. Gray because he's doing all sorts of nub-vil reads. Like he thinks he has something with his read on me. He's trying to explain why it's good, but we all know that after a few games under his belt, he'll see why it isn't. Rong for a read I would prefer to not say



From last game when Wuf the turncoat wanted to reach out to villager Rong, we can safely assume this "secret tell" is B.S.; Wuf doesn't have a better read on Rong than anyone else does. But I think Rong is probably a villager. Rong is Wuf's Hail Mary pass, he still thinks he can win. In case Rong gets nommed or seered or lynched and come back villager, he can say, "I told you so."


But he actually goes into detail on why Gray is a lock-villager. He then adds later what he says is the only scenario in which Gray can be a wolf: He's a wolf with me. Ergo, when I flip villager, Gray must be villager too? Heh


Wuf has tried to tie Gray to me several times despite the fact that I've been the only person who was actively suspicious of him. Their interactions read as contrived, attempts to distance themselves from each other. He would absolutely try to give a wolf cover in what could be his last post and think he's too clever for us to figure it out.


Wuf gave us the most hidden wolf. Wuf should be kept alive til end game.


Lynch GrayFoxxx

Well, this is retarded.

[a500lbgorilla]

Didn't rong and ong learn this last game? I know I learned it with Keith some time ago? I've been under the gun from ong, wuf, et al in the past. I've done it to jyms.

When you think someone is a wolf, every action they take gets painted as wolfy or is ignored.

You two can't get the other lynched by attacking them. You gots to divest from that nonsense and survey the field for other wolves to show yourself villagers, if you want to help the village.

I really can't tell what's going on between wuf and buadib. I think wuf's complete focal vision for baudib looks the worst right now but both are really dragging this game down.

[a500lbgorilla]

what would be crazy is if wuf and bdub were both wolves but they got carried away. Now that they are both on the top of many peoples list, they figure what the hell... If one of us goes down, at least the other looks like a lock villager.

No edit zee post.

[GatorJH]

I'd like to know why this is your opinion.

Imo the more someone posts content, the more info about themselves we receive.

I believe this is only true to a point. Most of what people write is subjective and can be taken to mean different things based on that person's perspective. When someone puts out too much data their is a risk that the data can be misconstrued more often that valuably used.

[scourrge]

First 2 quotes are from wuf, #621:

I get an itching, crawling sensation at the first bolded section. That is just too specific of my personal sensibilities for a brand-newb to know. This has to have been discussed in the wolfchat. My rep is very much that my village play is narcissistic and focused on "winning himself or being right". The "good of the village thing" is also something that can be legitimately said about how I played turncoat. I doubt scourge would know this if somebody didn't tell him. The rhetoric is not the kind nubs use in the first place

You're right, I couldn't really have known your rep. But there were about 400 posts in here before I even started to join the fun, and prob close to 100 of them were from you. My comments about the difference between your wolf and village play were based on observation and then speculation. I should be worried that you're so guarded of me now, but tbh I'm just excited that my ramblings were actually somewhat close to accurate.

I have virtually no knowledge of how you've played past games. Some from what's been said itt, but most of my thoughts were based only on your posts itt so far. Also, not really sure what you mean about the rhetoric noobs use. Are you trying to say I've played werewolves elsewhere? Not that you'd believe him, but baud knows this is my first game. I had to actually sit down and read what all the specials do. And since I AM a noob, I don't know what the statement about my rhetoric is supposed to mean. All my posts are kind of similar to each other in terms of how I write? So I'm not sure why that makes it suddenly suspicious now.

The second bolded section is as if Baud himself explained it. How confident are we that scourge has examined that game enough to know this?

I haven't examined that game at all - at least not in thread form. And it being said as if "Baud himself explained it" makes perfect sense lol.

I talk to scourrge almost every day. I told him about last game while I was playing it. I told him that we can't talk about the game outside the thread and we've both respected that.

Baud has been the only one I've spoken with about that game. It was his first game so he was pretty excited, so I heard a lot about it. We also think pretty similarly in general, so it's not that surprising that the logic would flow in the same way.

[OngBonga]

Why does Gator come first to mind for this?

Because when I saw the luco kill I thought that looks like a very gatoresque kill, then I thought maybe that's what the wolves want us to think. I was drunk when I posted last night and I wasn't being entirely serious. The luco does kill look like gator's work though, kinda, but that seems too level 0. I'd also expect gator to be special hunting on n1, not picking off those who have successfully read him in the past. Why would anyone think luco was special?

luco nom was real strange.

Anyway I'm happy with a baudib lynch.

lynch baudib

[OngBonga]

If you want me to elaborate more why I think luco kill is gatoresque, it's because I'm reasonably sure from my time wolfing that gator is more than happy to pick off luco due to luco's ability to read gator. The only thing I'll add though is that gator will not insist on killing anyway, he's democratic, and also his n1 wolf priority is to special hunt. So he'll only kill luco n1 if the wolves are happy there's a decent chance of binking the seer. I don't think that applies here, so I think the wolves are unlikely to be particularly adept special hunters.

The night kill could very much hint at an inexperienced wolf team.

[OngBonga]

Ok so I would not kill luco. Not for shit. I'm democratic in that I'll accept majority, but I'm also very vocal and would explain very strongly that killing luco would be a random shot at binking a special at best, when we should actually be trying to improve our odds of hitting by using deduction. I think I'd talk the others out of it unless they had some sick reason for wanting to kill luco. I'm not trying to clear myself here. I'm asking myself who else would think along my sort of lines, I'm trying to narrow down who makes the kill.

rilla, wuf, rong, gabe, keith, gator... all of these guys are too strong and experienced to not be special hunting n1. bikes is too much of a poker man to accept randomly hitting a special rather than improving your odds by being smart.

I'm clearing far too many people here. Is there really not a wolf in this group? It seems more likely that the wolf team killed luco to make it appear that they are not special hunting, suggesting noobs. It could be expereinced wolves finding a way to get the noobs lynched.

sigh.

[OngBonga]

The luco kill is purely to fuck with my head. They're laughing in the den at me right now, because I'm saying all the shit they predicted I'd say last night.

Cunts.

[BankItDrew]

No edit zee post.

Yeah my bad. I've edited a couple of posts but believe me when I say they were just spelling typos. I'll stop doing that though.

[baudib]

fwiw i would have snap-nommed whoever i thought is the best player on the village team who i thought was decent shot at being a special. last game i was furiously trying to figure out all the roles and i guessed correctly that big red was the vig and hoopy was vanilla. i thought daven was the seer or turncoat.

[baudib]

also, i was trying to get myself nommed to protect the better players but i guess that was going to be impossible

[Keybored]

Your read on me is wrong, but I agree with this.

I agree with BID & GF that today's lynch must be Wuf or Baudib.
But I also have GF on top of my watch list.

[Keybored]

what would be crazy is if wuf and bdub were both wolves but they got carried away. Now that they are both on the top of many peoples list, they figure what the hell... If one of us goes down, at least the other looks like a lock villager.

I've been thinking about this for a long time...atm, I think it's a high probability.

[Keybored]

I really can't tell what's going on between wuf and buadib. I think wuf's complete focal vision for baudib looks the worst right now but both are really dragging this game down.

Agreed...The highly experienced Wuf is losing village cred for this prolonged engagement with one (semi-noob) player. If they don't desist, we gotta roll one up.

[Keybored]

Ok so I would not kill luco. Not for shit. I'm democratic in that I'll accept majority, but I'm also very vocal and would explain very strongly that killing luco would be a random shot at binking a special at best, when we should actually be trying to improve our odds of hitting by using deduction. I think I'd talk the others out of it unless they had some sick reason for wanting to kill luco. I'm not trying to clear myself here. I'm asking myself who else would think along my sort of lines, I'm trying to narrow down who makes the kill...It seems more likely that the wolf team killed luco to make it appear that they are not special hunting, suggesting noobs. It could be expereinced wolves finding a way to get the noobs lynched.

This would be a solid strat; and it's a brilliant catch from Ong. At least two of the wolves are very strong. They must have creamed themselves when they met in the den! So, not knowing anyone here, who's most likely to have concocted such a yarn??

[gabe]

lynching someone like baudib, who is posting a TON, on day 1 is just plain stupid. If he really is a wolf his amount of posting should make it easier to tie back to him once we find one.

i know you said "on day 1" but that logic is the opposite of this..

I am pretty sold on a Baudib lynch today. Even if he is a villager the wall of posts make it impossible to be valuable to the village imo.

I believe this is only true to a point. Most of what people write is subjective and can be taken to mean different things based on that person's perspective. When someone puts out too much data their is a risk that the data can be misconstrued more often that valuably used.

dissonance is a wolfy trait. combine this with you being a little more than likely to nom luco and thats enough for me
lynch gator

[gabe]

I've been thinking about this for a long time...atm, I think it's a high probability.

this is a trap in werewolf. people love thinking their conspiracies are high probabilities, when really they are just certain of something being possible

[baudib]

​rescind grayfoxxxx lynch gator

[OngBonga]

I just had a great idea.

Let's lynch baudib.

[dhubermex]

There are approximately 51 hours remaining in the Day #2 Cycle.

DAY #2 LYNCH NOMINATIONS

baudib - 2
GatorJH - 2
wufwugy - 2

-----

a500lbgorilla
BankItDrew --- (GrayFoxxxx #572) (baudib #579) wufwugy #603
baudib --- (GrayFoxxxx #571) GatorJH #654
bikes
gabe --- GatorJH #652
GatorJH
GrayFoxxxx --- wufwugy #605
Keith
Keybored
OngBonga --- baudib #641
rong
scourrge
wufwugy --- baudib #620

[OngBonga]

a500lbgorilla
rilla is just doing his thing, not really getting in anyone's face, appearing to hunt wolves. rilla is an excellent wolf hunter and average wolf, so I'm in no hurry to lynch him while he's not acting in a particularly wolfy manner. I'm leaning villager right now.

BankItDrew --- (GrayFoxxxx #572) (baudib #579) wufwugy #603
Subbed in, has not really stood out for me. I get a vague villager feel from him simply because he doesn't feel particularly awkward.

baudib --- (GrayFoxxxx #571) GatorJH #654
Countless pov slips, very difficult to find the town motivation in his thought process, shady as hell. Wolf.

bikes
I can't even remember what he's posted. Not all that involved, I'd probably lean villager for now but that's because baudib has been after him.

gabe --- GatorJH #652
It doesn't surprise me that gabe is not very prolific at this stage. Dude has been early kill for the last few games he's played. But at the same time his under-the-radar style is perfect for a wolf. Hard to say where I'm at with gabe. Feels a bit wolfy but then again that's normal for gabe.

GatorJH
I wasn't liking him yesterday but I'm not sure gator would agree to kill luco on n1 instead of special hunting. He could accept he's a high value kill, but there's no reason to think he is special because he didn't post and neither did whoever he replaced. Gatorwolf doesn't make bad kills. This was a bad kill. So night action has me thinking villager.

GrayFoxxxx --- wufwugy #605
I've got a general villager feel off him, but I wouldn't want to bet on it.

Keith
Feels like normal keith here. But then wolf keith feels like normal keith.

Keybored
I don't get a good feel off him at all. Far too eager to buddy up to dominant voices, feels particularly awkward, this could be a noob wolf for sure.

OngBonga --- baudib #641
Confirmed awesome and brilliant.

rong
I think he's a villager. So he's probably a wolf.

scourrge
That response to wuf felt pretty good to me, I lean villager.

wufwugy --- baudib #620
I'm heavily leaning villager while baudib looks so wolfy. I'll reassess wuf if baudib is somehow town.



Looks to me like baudib, keybored and one more.

[baudib]

scourrge is a villager. don't underestimate him, he's easily capable of pulling off good wolf in his first try a la Daven. But the people who expressed interest in lynching lolzz -- 5 of them -- think there's gotta be 1-2 wolves in there. His responses very villagery.

[BankItDrew]

Isn't scourrge your friend irl that you think is very smart?

[OngBonga]

The lolz wagon on d1 can easily be all villagers, and the wolves would know if it is or not. In fact, pointing to dodgy wagons with just villagers on can be a very effective diversion tactic. I don't even know who wanted to kill lolz. The timing of votes might be important, but an all-villager lolz wagon wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[baudib]

wuf argued vigorously for lolzz, Bikes expressed an interest early on and I think he bolded him. Gator bolded him and then rescinded when he found out scourrge was replacing him, there was a lot of debate about Gator's motives there. Gabe expressed an interest but didn't do it, Rilla bolded him before he got replaced.

[GatorJH]

i know you said "on day 1" but that logic is the opposite of this..




dissonance is a wolfy trait. combine this with you being a little more than likely to nom luco and thats enough for me
lynch gator

This is is not dissonance as I stand by both of those comments, and I explained why further up. Although Day 2 may be too soon (I made that post out of frustration from reading walls and walls of posts) I do believe that there can be a rate of diminishing value in the amount of posting someone does because the sheer amount of info can now be construed in too many ways to be valuable.

[GatorJH]

a500lbgorilla
rilla is just doing his thing, not really getting in anyone's face, appearing to hunt wolves. rilla is an excellent wolf hunter and average wolf, so I'm in no hurry to lynch him while he's not acting in a particularly wolfy manner. I'm leaning villager right now.

BankItDrew --- (GrayFoxxxx #572) (baudib #579) wufwugy #603
Subbed in, has not really stood out for me. I get a vague villager feel from him simply because he doesn't feel particularly awkward.

baudib --- (GrayFoxxxx #571) GatorJH #654
Countless pov slips, very difficult to find the town motivation in his thought process, shady as hell. Wolf.

bikes
I can't even remember what he's posted. Not all that involved, I'd probably lean villager for now but that's because baudib has been after him.

gabe --- GatorJH #652
It doesn't surprise me that gabe is not very prolific at this stage. Dude has been early kill for the last few games he's played. But at the same time his under-the-radar style is perfect for a wolf. Hard to say where I'm at with gabe. Feels a bit wolfy but then again that's normal for gabe.

GatorJH
I wasn't liking him yesterday but I'm not sure gator would agree to kill luco on n1 instead of special hunting. He could accept he's a high value kill, but there's no reason to think he is special because he didn't post and neither did whoever he replaced. Gatorwolf doesn't make bad kills. This was a bad kill. So night action has me thinking villager.

GrayFoxxxx --- wufwugy #605
I've got a general villager feel off him, but I wouldn't want to bet on it.

Keith
Feels like normal keith here. But then wolf keith feels like normal keith.

Keybored
I don't get a good feel off him at all. Far too eager to buddy up to dominant voices, feels particularly awkward, this could be a noob wolf for sure.

OngBonga --- baudib #641
Confirmed awesome and brilliant.

rong
I think he's a villager. So he's probably a wolf.

scourrge
That response to wuf felt pretty good to me, I lean villager.

wufwugy --- baudib #620
I'm heavily leaning villager while baudib looks so wolfy. I'll reassess wuf if baudib is somehow town.



Looks to me like baudib, keybored and one more.

nice analysis and I pretty much agree with most of it. Keith would be the one exception as he just seems to be a bit different to me this game so I am leaning more wolf then villager.

[baudib]

Isn't scourrge your friend irl that you think is very smart?

Yeah. i don't know if it's against the spirit of the rules to talk about non-game info but he mentioned it and if he's a villager he won't mind: We do have similar thought patterns in a lot of things but I'm far more devious and have a far bigger ego. I'd expect he could read me very well, his posts seem like honest analysis.

[BankItDrew]

If my good friend started his first game with me. I wouldn't be so quick to be decisive about them being a villager. You seem so confident about it and it makes me uneasy about you.

Personally, I'd probably default to a paranoid state with them being a wolf.

[Keybored]

DAY #1 LYNCH NOMINATIONS

baudib --- 1
bigred --- 6
wufwugy --- 5

_____

a500lbgorilla --- (wufwugy #180) (lolzzz_321 #456) bigred #483
BankItDrew --- wufwugy #539
baudib --- (bikes #91) (bikes #380) wufwugy #424
bigred
bikes --- bigred #488
gabe --- (baudib #415) bigred #491
GatorJH --- (lolzzz_321 #332) bigred #353
GrayFoxxxx --- (baudib #116) (wufwugy #268) (baudib #403) wufwugy #502
Keith --- wufwugy #487
Keybored --- bigred #237
OngBonga --- (baudib) (bigred #204) (baudib #321) (bigred #334) (baudib #375) (baudib #410)(wufwugy #421) (baudib #429) wufwugy #448
rong --- bigred #361
scourrge
SweetClaireRose
wufwugy --- (lolzzz_321 #119) (baudib #131) (bigred #234) (BankItDrew #292) baudib #397

The wolves are: Baudib, Gray, Ong! And on d1 they're all over their most outspoken nemesis--Wuf.
Aside from their rhetoric, they're also the most active voters; obviously trying to cast off suspicion.

Gray starts his votes with Baud but finishes with Wuf.
Ong votes repeatedly against Baud but ends with Wuf.
Baud has hard on for bikes then flips to Wuf.

And none of them have shown solid reason to nail Wuf as wolf.
And this seasoned crew has the smarts to throw that crazy Luco kill out there to confuse us.

Just have to decide which Lynch would cripple the other two most...

[wufwugy]

If my good friend started his first game with me. I wouldn't be so quick to be decisive about them being a villager. You seem so confident about it and it makes me uneasy about you.

Personally, I'd probably default to a paranoid state with them being a wolf.

This

I brought Aubrey to these games (sadly she no play no more), and it was like that. I knew I would read her better than others do just because of how well I know her, but I was damn sure that I would only call her a villager if I was sure I was right

[wufwugy]

​rescind grayfoxxxx lynch gator

Hey look it's the guy who says im lockwolf lockwolf lockwolf lockwolf but is apparently scared shitless of bolding me and going head to head. It's gotta be because you know that if I die, you die

[Keith]

just catching up

village priority should be figuring out if one none or both of me and Wuf are wolves. i volunteer to self-lynch if we lynch wuf. or vig can shoot me after lynching Wuf. can anyone really argue with that plan?

been there done that .....and the village never follows through. wolf kill and vig /angel actions all provide new info and village goes with the new info and forgets about the left over stuff from the day before as the rest of the village may not be as convinced about the other persons wolfiness as the guy who self lynches.

[baudib]

I like Gabe's argument and I haven't felt Gator was playing his wolfhunting game and I don't feel right about him going after Keith; Keith seems much like a villager to me.

But Gator's such a good wolf it almost makes him villagery to look suspicious this early (probably leveling myself). If he's a villager it's a borderline disaster to kill him this early especially when there are other candidates.

Rescind Gator

[Keith]

#649

Originally Posted by BankItDrewwhat would be crazy is if wuf and bdub were both wolves but they got carried away. Now that they are both on the top of many peoples list, they figure what the hell... If one of us goes down, at least the other looks like a lock villager.

I've been thinking about this for a long time...atm, I think it's a high probability.

#650

Agreed...The highly experienced Wuf is losing village cred for this prolonged engagement with one (semi-noob) player. If they don't desist, we gotta roll one up.

#651

This would be a solid strat; and it's a brilliant catch from Ong. At least two of the wolves are very strong. They must have creamed themselves when they met in the den! So, not knowing anyone here, who's most likely to have concocted such a yarn??

wuf had just had a string of votes and keybored is happy to point at wuf and laud ong. I don't get how he can say that "at least two wolves are very strong" from what ong said. ong said experienced wolves in the last paragraph that keybored didn't quote. Is he trying to influence how the village interpret what ong said.BID and baudib have both been wolves so are experienced ....but i would never call BID a strong wolf.
#666 and 5 hours later

The wolves are: Baudib, Gray, Ong! And on d1 they're all over their most outspoken nemesis--Wuf.
Aside from their rhetoric, they're also the most active voters; obviously trying to cast off suspicion.

Gray starts his votes with Baud but finishes with Wuf.
Ong votes repeatedly against Baud but ends with Wuf.
Baud has hard on for bikes then flips to Wuf.

And none of them have shown solid reason to nail Wuf as wolf.
And this seasoned crew has the smarts to throw that crazy Luco kill out there to confuse us.

Just have to decide which Lynch would cripple the other two most...

now we have a complete about turn , wuf is now the hard done by victim of a wolf plot and ong has now become a wolf after having come up with his theory that you called a great catch. how do you explain this about turn?

[Keith]

nice analysis and I pretty much agree with most of it. Keith would be the one exception as he just seems to be a bit different to me this game so I am leaning more wolf then villager.

busy with harvest at the moment so not getting a chance to read the thread during the day unless its rained so not having the time to do research like i usually do. also means that i am reading a lot of posts all at one go , so noticed the about turn from keybored i just posted about.

[a500lbgorilla]

I like Gabe's argument and I haven't felt Gator was playing his wolfhunting game and I don't feel right about him going after Keith; Keith seems much like a villager to me.

But Gator's such a good wolf it almost makes him villagery to look suspicious this early (probably leveling myself). If he's a villager it's a borderline disaster to kill him this early especially when there are other candidates.

Rescind Gator

Ugh, your lynch plus rescind is super weak.

Gator's standard play is to ignore or be dismissive of pressure and watch it dissolve. Play made easier by you.

[a500lbgorilla]

lynch Gator

Gator hasn't done anything pro village all game.

[baudib]

Ugh, your lynch plus rescind is super weak.

Gator's standard play is to ignore or be dismissive of pressure and watch it dissolve. Play made easier by you.

I was reviewing last game and saw that Gator barely responded to the fact that he was the leading wagon on Day 1, so I figured putting heat on him doesn't even matter. I have Gator as a top 5 wolf candidate still but not sure it's the right way to go.

It's way early in the day so new things may emerge. I remember as a wolf last game that I was really upset that the Day was so long over the weekend because I felt longer days favored the village. More people seem to be getting involved more so it's getting interesting.