River bets when The draws make it...

[DJAbacus]

I'm putting these two hands into one thread as they are pretty similar. I think I'm ahead OTT in each case and then the draw makes it and ......??? Both Villians are massive fish.

iPoker - €0.02 PL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: €1.21 (VPIP: 69.23, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
UTG: €0.43 (VPIP: 92.31, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
MP: €0.91 (VPIP: 61.54, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
CO: €3.33 (VPIP: 69.23, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 13)
BTN: €0.89 (VPIP: 62.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
Hero (SB): €2.22

Hero posts SB €0.01, BB posts BB €0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: €0.03) Hero has J A

UTG calls €0.02, MP raises to €0.08, CO calls €0.08, fold, Hero calls €0.07, fold, UTG calls €0.06

Flop: (€0.34, 4 players) T K A
Hero bets €0.23, fold, fold, CO calls €0.23

Turn: (€0.80, 2 players) 5
Hero bets €0.40, CO calls €0.40

River: (€1.60, 2 players) J

Hero ????



iPoker - €0.02 PL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: €1.49 (VPIP: 61.54, PFR: 2.56, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 39)
BTN: €1.52 (VPIP: 89.74, PFR: 2.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
SB: €1.94 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
BB: €4.07 (VPIP: 74.36, PFR: 20.51, 3Bet Preflop: 18.18, Hands: 39)
UTG: €0.46 (VPIP: 38.24, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
Hero (MP): €2.00

SB posts SB €0.01, BB posts BB €0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: €0.03) Hero has A A

UTG calls €0.02, Hero raises to €0.08, CO calls €0.08, BTN calls €0.08, SB calls €0.07, fold, fold

Flop: (€0.36, 4 players) 2 9 5
SB checks, Hero bets €0.32, fold, BTN calls €0.32, fold

Turn: (€1.00, 2 players) K
Hero bets €0.78, BTN calls €0.78

River: (€2.56, 2 players) 8

Hero ????

[OngBonga]

The AA hand is a clear bet, villain hardly has anything left (50c?) and is ridiculously loose-passive. He can have 22-QQ AK and a whole host of other hands. Sure he gets there with a flush sometimes, but he's not getting much value on the river in return for the chase. Just bet the 50c into $2.50, if he got lucky laugh at him and look forward to the next hand with him.

The AJ is tougher, it's either a c/f or c/c, I definitely wouldn't be betting this river.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I agree with ong.

Bet more OTF (maybe) and definitely OTT w/ AJ - you have TP, NFD and a GSSD.

[DJAbacus]

So in general with in these kinds of spots we are thinking about checking the River and then making a decision based on equity vs pot odds of to call. Occasionally a Villain will bluff a missed draw and shove but generally they will bet the strength of their hand and we just need to make a decision.

In the AA hand if we checked we would call a shove anyway so we bet for value. In the AJ hand we are not so committed so we c/c when we think we have enough equity to do so and c/f when we don't.

[DJAbacus]

I agree with ong.

Bet more OTF (maybe) and definitely OTT w/ AJ - you have TP, NFD and a GSSD.

So I should be thinking, OTT I have tons of equity here so bet more like 90% pot.

[DJAbacus]

The AJ is tougher, it's either a c/f or c/c, I definitely wouldn't be betting this river.

hmmm....did some work on this in flopzilla (which I should have done before posting) and according to Villains calling range OTT (just about any sort of connect) then I still have 60% equity vs his calling range OTR which includes Qx sets Ax and worse two pairs. So I don't get why you wouldn't bet here.

[OngBonga]

If you're confident that all Ax and better calls a river bet, then betting the AJ is fine, so long as we fold to a raise. I'm not sure how fishy this guy is in terms of his showdown calls... will he call a rag ace here? Maybe if we size the bet small enough for him to make a crying call, then betting is good. Like I say, the AJ hand is a tougher spot, I'm not really sure what's best.

[settecba]

1st hand: I like a 0.60 bet OTR
2nd hand: raise more pre 4bb+1/limper should be your default if not more at 2NL. Shove river.

[MadMojoMonkey]

So I should be thinking, OTT I have tons of equity here so bet more like 90% pot.

If they'll call the same range against a 90% bet as they will against a 75% bet, then yeah.

It might be a good exercise to estimate just how big you can bet before it changes their calling range.

This is a good skill to have, but honing it down will take some time. I tend to not try to go for full maximization, but no just think, he'll call a lot if I bet $X, I think he'll be suspicious an fold a bit more if I bet $Y... so I'll bet $Z, somewhere in between.

[DJAbacus]

If they'll call the same range against a 90% bet as they will against a 75% bet, then yeah.
just think, he'll call a lot if I bet $X, I think he'll be suspicious an fold a bit more if I bet $Y... so I'll bet $Z, somewhere in between.

Thanks, that's a nice idea..

[Timlagor]

Do you really mind getting rid of some of the drawing hands on the Turn?
I'd think making them (overpay)pay to continue or fold out their remaining equity would be in your interests here. If you've folded out most of the QXs and Flush Draws then you're left with the ATs and fishy AXs to enjoy with the J on the River
AQ, QJ amd KQ-Diamonds are still a problem but AK probably raised you by now or is too scared to call.

So I like the 90%-100% Pot Bet on the Turn.


Leaving money on the table isn't good but leaving your money on the table is worse.