Double Day Unlimited Werewolf

[JKDS]

These are Rascal's 3 posts to start the day, I'm really not sure how any gets a villa read off them.

He posted how hes not gonna do something because "it seems too wolfy". In my experience, wolves avoid the fuck out of phrases like this. Especially right off the bat when they have nothing to gain. His next post is game solvey, and all three posts sounded like rascal.

[JKDS]

Didn't you have a village read on rascal?

He didnt until later, baud actually went after him at that point in the game. It gave baudib villager cred from me at the time too.

[baudib]

Didn't you have a village read on rascal?

no I voted for him after those 3 posts

[baudib]

whatever

JKDS could just be a villager with AIDS, MMM is probably a wolf with AIDS

lynch MMM

[baudib]

I'm not as committed to my villa mmm read as I am with others. I just remember that mmm usually shines like an obvious villager by this point...and he's not there. He says he's less interested this game, but he still seems like he's interested.

what exactly are you saying about MMM here?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Me and rascal are racing to be "most scapegoaty" at this point in the game.

I guess I see where gabe is coming from, if his memory of my style of play only extends back one or two games. I really don't know what his gripe is that is enough to attract a vote on me and no one else. If nothing else happens, this is an important motivation that needs to be discovered.

@gabe: What's up with that?


But lilrascal's vote on me seems little more than revenge for my vote on him.
@lilrascal: What's up with that?

rescind lilrascal

lynch baudib

lilrascal and JKDS are my other picks for remaining W.

I will leave out any thoughts on gator, since I was reading him as V-ish, and he's actually got fewer posts than lilrascal at this point. Besides, I don't know how you guys read him (or deal with the fact that you can't) anyway.


There is no wolf in { BID, gabe, ong }.

@Ong: Does it strike you as important that baudib was looking all kinds of wolfy until he got votes? Then his nose goes to the grind and he's all, "Village Spirit, Go Go Go!"

[baudib]

There's no justification for any votes on me but glgl.

[baudib]

anyone have any idea what the VC is?

[gabe]

There's no justification for any votes on me but glgl.

you are too extreme too often


MMM .......hMMMmmmmm

[baudib]

Me and rascal are racing to be "most scapegoaty" at this point in the game.

I guess I see where gabe is coming from, if his memory of my style of play only extends back one or two games. I really don't know what his gripe is that is enough to attract a vote on me and no one else. If nothing else happens, this is an important motivation that needs to be discovered.

@gabe: What's up with that?


But lilrascal's vote on me seems little more than revenge for my vote on him.
@lilrascal: What's up with that?

rescind lilrascal

lynch baudib

lilrascal and JKDS are my other picks for remaining W.

I will leave out any thoughts on gator, since I was reading him as V-ish, and he's actually got fewer posts than lilrascal at this point. Besides, I don't know how you guys read him (or deal with the fact that you can't) anyway.


There is no wolf in { BID, gabe, ong }.

@Ong: Does it strike you as important that baudib was looking all kinds of wolfy until he got votes? Then his nose goes to the grind and he's all, "Village Spirit, Go Go Go!"

After I flip, this post has all the hallmarks of a wolfy wolf hiding a wolfy vote in a wolfy post.

rescinding on rascal for no real reason when he's still your wolf lean.

calling JKDS wolfy without any reasoning

doesn't give a reason for voting me, in fact says I am going nose to the grind and all Go village. that's a good reason MMM.

LOL if you're a villager.

[MadMojoMonkey]

@ong: game is imba toward V because

It a "vanilla" game, it's 9 players, 7/2 with no specials.

In this game, it's the same, except that there are fewer nights.

Consider that after the Luco lynch, there was no night phase and no nom. This is essentially skipping N1.

In effect, all odd-numbered nights are skipped.

Without some special role for the wolves, their killing power has been cut in half.

[gabe]

LOL if you're a villager.

are you trying to act cool because you play so often??? zzz

[baudib]

nope

MMM is close to downright sabotaging if he's a villager.

[MadMojoMonkey]

My vote is off rascal because it was putting him w/ more votes than baudib, and I think baudib is all kinds of bad.

I think this heightened involvement only came after baudib was getting votes and that he was all over the place in early game.
His vote was not on Luco.
He's flipping back and forth on me as the vote count suits him.

IF I'm wrong about baudib, and I know he's wrong about me, then the only thing he can have right is his read on JKDS.
I think bussing on Luco is well within JKDS playbook.
It's on my radar that JKDS is a wolf.

[OngBonga]

nope

MMM is close to downright sabotaging if he's a villager.

This is how I feel about you baudib.

[baudib]

This is how I feel about you baudib.

Well, you're wrong as you usually are. shrug

[OngBonga]

@Ong: Does it strike you as important that baudib was looking all kinds of wolfy until he got votes? Then his nose goes to the grind and he's all, "Village Spirit, Go Go Go!"

baudib just strikes me as wolfy in everything he does. It's like he tries.

[MadMojoMonkey]

@gabe: What is your case on me that is overwhelming your case on anyone else?

[baudib]

baudib rereading the thread, looking at posts in context, asking good questions... making me rethink my presumptions.

rescind baudib

If I presume baudib as V, then my remaining suspects are JKDS and lilrascal. Frankly, rascal is looking more V than JKDS.

JKDS 177

@JKDS: If you want credit for being on the Luco lynch, why lynch gabe, who was on the Luco lynch?
I.e. what was the difference between his 'eagerness' and yours?


I'm interested, but less so than par for me.

Nevertheless, this kind of soft push is wolfy as sin.

MMM how do you go from this two hours ago to thinking I'm the wolf ahead of JKDS

AFAICT this is the first time you really mentioned JKDS all game as well.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Vote Count (AFAIK)

player || is voting for
---------------------
baudib || JKDS, MMM
BID || lilrascal
gabe || MMM
gator || lilrascal
JKDS || baudib, lilrascal
lilrascal || MMM
MMM || baudib
ong || (no vote)

Totals:
baudib - 2
JKDS - 1
lilrascal - 3
MMM - 3

BID - 0
gabe - 0
Gator - 0
Ong - 0

[baudib]

I did a quick read on Rascal and he seems totally rand. I doubt he wins this game as a wolf though.

So yeah this is your POE

Baudib
MMM
JKDS
Rascal


If there's a deep wolf glgl

I think BID is really unlikely to be a wolf, he would have made some horrendous post by now. he is being pretty quiet though

Ong is probably a villager most of the time

Gator and Gabe feel like villagers

This group is mostly self-resolving anyway.

[MadMojoMonkey]

MMM how do you go from this two hours ago to thinking I'm the wolf ahead of JKDS

AFAICT this is the first time you really mentioned JKDS all game as well.

Your hysteria is not well founded. I have mentioned JKDS many times, mostly by POE.

Village:
BID
gabe
ong

On Luco
gabe, gator, JKDS, ong
(that list is alphabetical, as are all my lists of player names)

Who's left?
baudib, lilrascal

What do I have clearing JKDS besides his vote on Luco? Not much.
What do I have to clear gator? Equally not much.

[baudib]

Your hysteria is not well founded. I have mentioned JKDS many times, mostly by POE.

Village:
BID
gabe
ong

On Luco
gabe, gator, JKDS, ong
(that list is alphabetical, as are all my lists of player names)

Who's left?
baudib, lilrascal

What do I have clearing JKDS besides his vote on Luco? Not much.
What do I have to clear gator? Equally not much.

you didn't answer the question

[baudib]

MMM

you're not getting Gator mislynched this game IMO

glgl

[MadMojoMonkey]

@baudib: what about gabe and gator feels like villagers?

[MadMojoMonkey]

you didn't answer the question

Show me the question.

[MadMojoMonkey]

MMM

you're not getting Gator mislynched this game IMO

glgl

This is simply a misrepresentation of what I said. In no way or form have I suggested a gator lynch. I merely said that I don't see why people are clearing him.

[baudib]

MMM, mentioning JKDS "by POE" is not really mentioning him

you have like zero posts before the one I quoted talking about him in a way that makes it seem like you have any interest in determining his alignment.

[MadMojoMonkey]

JKDS is hard to read. I did a thread re-read/ISO on him and all I could find that left me with an open question until the exchange between JKDS and baudib was that odd attack on gabe.

I asked him a question about it, and he has not responded.


My read on you as wolfy was put on hold while I re-evaluated my read. Assertingt, "If I assume that baudib is a villager..." is different from saying "baudib is a villager." You see that, right?

I was exploring the implication of my primary hypothesis being false.

[baudib]

MMM lacks any real progression on anyone in the game. These are literally all the posts where he mentions JKDS

I'm not convinced. He (lilrascal) relies on live interaction to press his advantage as villager. This is the perfect hedge.
Everyone hedges. Villagers get less pressure when they're honest, and wolves get less pressure when they lie. Hedges win games.
Whoever calls it can get at least a partial free ride. Especially on this site where we know each other so well.

My read on lilrascal is slightly more wolfy than not.
(I totes misread him as wolfy in my MU game. Even after I'd identified the wolves I had him as possible SK, even though the night actions would have to have been phenomenal to prevent the SK from getting any kills. My meta read on rascal is in the dumps.)

BID for village President. He's playing the strongest D1 village game he's played in my recollection. Leaning V for BID.
I'm leaning slightly village on ong for his defense of his group vote and BID's read supports that. I trust BID's D1 reads on ong.
BID being all over the place is standard BIDville. Picking on BID for this is slightly wolfy, if anything (baud).

Despite that it's slightly wolfy on baudib to pick on BID, in general, he's reading V to me. He always looks village in the early game to me, and he's constantly improving. I hope he's a good guy. I'd love to hear a convincing read on baud, but I think it's too early and he's too good for that.

Gator... idk. He didn't fist pump in his opening post, so I guess that's wolfy.
JKDS always takes time to read, too.
Luco yet to post.
gabe yet to post.


I miss dhubs telling us how vanilla he was in every post.

??

Oh. I see now. Yes, I agree. I am being overly meta about gabe and gator.

Still. I have some other suspicions on baudib, but I'm not getting into them at this time.


This post means either of two things:
1) Ongie is V and believes I'm V and is helping me keep my head on straight.
2) Ongie is W and knows that gabe and gator are V and wants to keep suspicion piqued.

I'm leaning the former, but if ongie flips W, I doubt that he's overtly diverting suspicion toward gabe/gator if either of them is his buddy.


***
Sorry to hear it JKDS. I hope you two can fight and make up w/o any permanent baggage.

As per the game, though... You can't ride on excuses.
What do you think of the baud/ong interaction?

What do you think about my analysis in this post?

I doubt there was any bussing on that vote.

I'm willing to clear all 4 for the rest of the game day (at least) on the notion that bussing the first vote when there are only 2 W's is high risk / low reward play.

***
I'm reading the difference in tone in ong's posts, but unlike other peeps here, I'm reading it as genuine, no-BS play. I love me some ongie, and I feel very comfortable reading his posts in this game. Usually, his bravado and propensity for FPS turns me off a bit. This game is different from him. On that account, I can't disagree. I can only say that I've seen him wolf a bunch of times and I don't feel like this determined voice fits in to that game.

***
Village:
BID
gabe
gator
JKDS
ong

Wolf:
baudib
lilrascal


lynch baudib
lynch lilrascal

I always buddy you up at the start of the game. You're one of my favorite peeps to play with, and I always want to V with you ever since you pwned me in that game with keybored. I've called you out multiple times mid-game for not playing a straight-forward, no FPS game when the Village needs you.

The language is me trying to figure you out. I know I'm V, so it's your perspective that I'm reading.
In the first proposition, you believe I'm V, and you're helping another V keep the distractions out of the game.
In the second proposition, you're not a V, and you know I'm V, and you're only stopping me from offering them V-cred because you know they're V's and want all V's to remain suspect. I don't see why you'd so subtly yet directly point this out to me if one of them is a W with you.

I don't see what's weird. If there's a third option that I'm not seeing, then by all means add to it.

@ong: You're voting for 3 people. Myself and the two people I'm voting for. Does this make sense to you?

***
I always look for V's to work with on D1, and I had chosen ong and BID as early village core. This is largely unchanged.

Now I'm convinced that gabe is V, too. I have more experience with gabe (I only wolfed once and it was with him). I believe that he's not interested in bussing or any FPS for FPS sake. If he's going off the charts, it's motivated by a strong reason. That reason is not lacking in his own confidence to play this game well. That reason is something like, "I hate to do it, but you've left me absolutely no choice but to vote you. There's no way I wouldn't as a V." What did Luco do that left gabe absolutely no choice? I don't see it.

I want to see BID keep up the pace he set so far, as him disappearing once there's something to lie about is suspicious.


I strongly believe there are 3 V's in { BID, gabe, ong }


I don't know what gator is doing, but it doesn't look like hunting to me. Still, his vote on Luco when Luco wasn't under any real pressure earns him my respect for this voting cycle at least.

JKDS ... /feels/ ... villagery to me. I don't see the case on him.


baudib has struck me as inquisitive at the wrong things and more like he's spreading soft opinions all over the place rather than commit to some real reads. (I have been tunneling on him a bit, and if I've missed something, then please remind me.)

rascal may indeed have IRL business keeping him away, but that still leaves him showing little evidence of hunting.

Before this post your leanings on JKDS was villagery "I don't see the case on him."

baudib rereading the thread, looking at posts in context, asking good questions... making me rethink my presumptions.

rescind baudib

If I presume baudib as V, then my remaining suspects are JKDS and lilrascal. Frankly, rascal is looking more V than JKDS.

JKDS 177

@JKDS: If you want credit for being on the Luco lynch, why lynch gabe, who was on the Luco lynch?
I.e. what was the difference between his 'eagerness' and yours?


I'm interested, but less so than par for me.

Nevertheless, this kind of soft push is wolfy as sin.

[baudib]

This is simply a misrepresentation of what I said. In no way or form have I suggested a gator lynch. I merely said that I don't see why people are clearing him.

yeah but you're going to need to set one up amirite

You're probably going to screw up the night kill here.

[baudib]

MMM post #182 (where he says JKDS feels villagery) comes after the JKDS post that MMM later cites (#354) as being wolfy as sin.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Opinions change. Reflection occurs. Questions have been asked.

I'm not voting JKDS, but you're trying to make it out like I am "setting something up."
Same goes for gator.

Your evil eye on me is simply killing any supposed rep you may claim anywhere else. You have the gall to be butthurt when people don't follow you, but all you're doing is targeting a V. Yet you suggest it's my fault you're voting for me when I'm posing questions and showing a trail of my evolving reads over time.

Your tunneling is the fault, here. IF you are V, then this ridiculous push you're making on me is terrible play.

[baudib]

Opinions change. Reflection occurs. Questions have been asked.

I'm not voting JKDS, but you're trying to make it out like I am "setting something up."
Same goes for gator.

Your evil eye on me is simply killing any supposed rep you may claim anywhere else. You have the gall to be butthurt when people don't follow you, but all you're doing is targeting a V. Yet you suggest it's my fault you're voting for me when I'm posing questions and showing a trail of my evolving reads over time.

Your tunneling is the fault, here. IF you are V, then this ridiculous push you're making on me is terrible play.

I didn't even want to play this game and I certainly don't expect anyone to follow me. nor do I care about such things.

every single post you've made in this game is an abomination and there's not a single pro-villa sentiment in any of them.

how do you read JKDS' post at 12:40 yesterday and say at 1:20 that he feels villagery and then 180 posts later, you quote that post and say it is "wolfy as sin."

that's not a clear progression that makes any sense if you're actually trying to make a read on him.

[OngBonga]

This is much better from baudib.

[BankItDrew]

Both gabe and baudib have stated that I am not a solid villager in their eyes. If I get nommed, which I predict will happen, look at them.

[baudib]

Both gabe and baudib have stated that I am not a solid villager in their eyes. If I get nommed, which I predict will happen, look at them.

wat

[baudib]

Drew you get nommed tonight like 20% of the time at best, bro.

[baudib]

the problem is that everyone in the game is going to flip villager more than 50% of the time, I think.

I'd guess something like

MMM 35%
JKDS 20%
Rascal 15%
Gabe 11%
Gator 8%
Ong 7%
Drew 4%

[gabe]

wat

Qft and also lol. Thanks bid. Great contribution

[baudib]

and I probably have Gator way too low but w/e, I think he's a villager.

[BankItDrew]

Drew you get nommed tonight like 20% of the time at best, bro.

Good. I'm having fun following along. I'm MIA as soon as I die until the next game starts.

I disagree with you though. I think the best play for the wolf to do is to nom the most likely villager.

I believe I am that villager.

Fuck me, nie I'm starting to sound like dhubs.

For the record, I feel it to be a terribly risky and horrible play for either one of the only two wolves in the game to bus each other. There's only two of them. It's straight up horrible.

I'm looking at everyone not on the Luco wagon.

[BankItDrew]

Qft and also lol. Thanks bid. Great contribution

I'm not that good.

[BankItDrew]

I'll do the same for the funzies...

Rascal 35%
Baudib 20%
MMM 15%
JKDS 11%
Gator 8%
gabe 7%
ong 4%

[OngBonga]

These percentages best add up to 100.

[baudib]

Drew, I've played about 100 turbos, and bussing on D1 certainly does happen, especially if it looks like your partner is going to be a liability.

The problem the wolves have in that spot is they really need to hit the seer on n1, otherwise the game should be easily POEd with 2 live peeks.

in this game we don't even have a seer, so getting clearance on voting your AFK partner is definitely viable.

[baudib]

I just read the OP again, actually not being able to no lynch at F4 is pretty pro-wolf, so it's not as imbalanced as I thought.

F4 could be a real bitch.

[OngBonga]

f4 with two lynches is no worse than a regular f3, in fact it's better because there's a bonus 25% lynch.

[OngBonga]

The lack of specials is what balances up the double lynch, imo.

[JKDS]

rescind all
lynch mmm
lynch Luco

Let's see how this plays out. Hoopy posts a vote count, then a little over an hour from there MMM throws his vote to baudib (and personally his posts after that seem very weird). He could have voted for me, but honestly Baudib is a better villager than I am so the vote make sense to me. If MMM turns out to be a wolf then Luco is a wolf like 99% of the time here.

Read through, came to this conclusion, then found gator talking about it. MMM's late start could easily be explained through not knowing how to handle an afk partner, and it certainly seems like hes trying to stop that lynch.

[JKDS]

Also, im pretty sure im wrong on baudib.

unlynch Baudib
Lynch MMM

[baudib]

good good

I think we end the game here a lot.

[baudib]

MMM appears frozen

[MadMojoMonkey]

Nope, just SMH.

You're all about to see me flip V, and then face the ramifications.

I'd offer further words, but I know better than to assume anyone reads the thoughts of the dead villagers.

***
baudib, I'd admonish you, but we both know that you'll ignore me, and learn nothing from this lynch, so I wont bother.

[baudib]

Admonish me for what? What ramifications?

we have 3 mislynches to get it right. you haven't been helpful, and you're terribly likely to be helpful in the future, and particularly not likely to be helpful in end game, so...?

[MadMojoMonkey]

exactly

[baudib]

gjge

[baudib]

MMM you're talking as if you know I'm a villager.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Nope, just talking as if I know that you're too thick headed to make a mistake and then take any responsibility for the mistake.

[MadMojoMonkey]

If you happen to be a villager, then the mistake is my ML.

If you happen to be a wolf, then I think you're clearly in line to lose this game.

It's a mistake, either way.

[baudib]

you're in the clearly identifiable POE

you haven't been villagery

your posts are convoluted and devoid of content

it is always correct to lynch you, there's no mistake here whatsoever

you can't even make a case against any of your counter wagons at this point

you made an absurd progression on JKDS, who, from your POV, should be one of the most likely wolves.

you will flip wolf a lot

when you don't, we just LOL you and move on.

not much more to it.

[baudib]

rescind JKDS

[MadMojoMonkey]

exactly.

No learning to be had for baudib. Just stick to your guns and keep lynching villagers.

[baudib]

what is there to be learned exactly? what villageryness are we supposed to see in your game?

Who do you think the wolf is?

why am I even talking to you?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Because you know you're about to lynch someone who was an early village lean by most, and whom has been involved in the conversation, asking and answering questions.

The case on me is paper thin, and you're all about to see that.

Enjoy.

[baudib]

the case on everyone is paper thin. everyone is more likely to be a villager than a wolf at this point.

your response here, incidentally, isn't villagery.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Final wolf is in:
baudib
gator
JKDS

lilrascal - wildcard



Do not lynch:
BID
gab
ong

Spoiler: Show

I know better than to believe anyone will read this and give a half a shit

[baudib]

MMM you're supposed to be good at math right?

you know that villagers lynch villagers more often than they lynch wolves.

you're my biggest wolf lean and i said you will flip villager 65% of the time

what am I supposed to learn from your flip?

that you play badly in both roles?

[MadMojoMonkey]

exactly

[baudib]

I already knew that.

[OngBonga]

mojo is town.

lynch rascal

[baudib]

i doubt it

[baudib]

I mean, maybe, but he certainly needs to die pretty soon regardless.

[baudib]

MMM if you're a villager you need to self-pres

[baudib]

EOD is like 11 hours from now?