Russians vs. Americans: A Werewolf Game for October 2015

[lilrascal]

@Tom

Does BATM pull this kind of shit often? The pop-in, pop-out shtick.

Probably. Though I would say he's not being particularly helpful. Null, maybe slightly wolfy

FYI, BATM is not afraid to pop-in or post (i.e., he doesn't freeze up as a wolf). I know him from POG and I don't think he has the time he normally does. Sometimes it's hard to follow his logic, but he can be good in either role.

[lilrascal]

Remember last game when I called kami 'bigred 2.0'? Yeah that. I remember FTR killing me off every D1 because of my shat play, so now that I'm trying to be one of the more active players - I want to sweep the garbage under the rug.

Bigred is crap, I'd be thrilled with a lynch there for that very reason.
I'd be satisfied with a kami lynch for the same reason - I'm yet to see much of a difference between the two.

+1 to this

I've been guilty of rushing to D2 in the past as both a villager and a wolf, because I thought D1 was sorta pointless. I've changed my stance on that though.

I mainly want to give the inactives ample opportunity to contribute.

He's dead weight, typically.

I've always believed that lynching dead weight early was +EV

BID keeps pinging me. These posts are inconsistent and flip floppy. They were made in a 4 minute span. First he wants to get rid of dead weight and then he wants to give them a chance to contribute and then he's back to saying it's +EV to get rid of the dead weight.

I normally find BID to be more consistent and insistent as a villager.

[bigred]

LOL. I doubt you were even around when I was wearing diapers.

Metaphorical diapers

[lilrascal]

I like Beck for his interactions with BID from 273-296. Beck's definitely asking questions from a villager perspective.

Beck goes to the top of my villa pile.

[Beck Novo]

v
Beck
HiFi
Tom
lilrascal
MMM
Kami


This is kinda-sorta where I am right now. Luco and BID are on the fence for me. And I don't like gabe, Ong, Wuf, or JKDS. The latter-most two I need to post more. But as of right now, I am willing to lynch between one of these four.

I need to take another look at Gizmo but he hasn't done much for me, either.

[Beck Novo]

Looking at my list, too, I also recognize that I've only done a decent job of reading those that I know, MMM notwithstanding. So I have some work to do regarding the FTR regulars.

Can I ISO here?

[Beck Novo]

hi rascal, how've you been?

[TheBrokenATM]

When is lunch?

I have to say lilrascal sounds villager and helpful.
Beck likely villager. Too

[bigred]

I think Gizmo is at the top of my list. My level 1 read picks up on this defensiveness like when we was quick to retaliate on Rilla when he misinterpreted Rilla's post thinking Rilla was pointing fingers at him. I don't recall what Gizmo played like previously as a wolf but something is off this game.

I also want more scrutiny on Beck. He's asking some probing questions mixed with hi how r u posts. Not sure what to think of his play so far. Also not sure on his music taste. Es un perdedor?

[lilrascal]

hi rascal, how've you been?

I've been good. I just got back from vacation and had to go back to work this week, so that parts bad.

[bigred]

Looking at my list, too, I also recognize that I've only done a decent job of reading those that I know, MMM notwithstanding. So I have some work to do regarding the FTR regulars.

Can I ISO here?

I have a friend who doesn't know what ISO means. I totally do but my friend would like you to explain it for him.

[gabe]

Look, I just want to know whose correctly it was. It was a great read, btw. Would recommend.

lol btw @ "tomorrow we gain should gain a ton of info"
Seriously... You're saying the poisoner should try their best to hit a low EV shot by targeting someone they think is a villager? Not just any villager, but the assumed strong villager that the wolves' poisoner is targeting?
"even if that seems stupid, its not like poison is wasted. the point would be to kill wolves"
Wait. Your recommendation is for the village poisoner to target a person who they think is sketchy, yet who is also perceived as a strong village lean by the wolves? How often does this work out?

correction: "btw lol @ 'Am I reading you correctly?'" that was just a funny breakdown to me

i'm not saying the poisoner should take a low ev shot. im just highlighting how if the poisoner misses a wolf, it would be a juicy spot if they hit the same person the wolves poisoned. "how often does this work out?": not much but its just what i was thinking at the time. i'm not saying to poison a cleared villager by any means

[Top Tier Tom]

These posts from Tom ping me a little bit. He keeps asking for meta and then listens to BID's view of Ong's posting and then pointing out how it's wolfy. This seems to be a big jump by Tom without the backup.

I don't get what bothers you about this

[lilrascal]

Looking at my list, too, I also recognize that I've only done a decent job of reading those that I know, MMM notwithstanding. So I have some work to do regarding the FTR regulars.

Can I ISO here?

Yes. Go here: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...rewolf-village and then click on the post count for the thread you want. A pop-up will appear and then click on the post count for the player you want. It won't be a complete ISO like on MU, but will give you most of the post (depending on size) and ofc a link to the post.

[Beck Novo]

I've been good. I just got back from vacation and had to go back to work this week, so that parts bad.

Nice, nice. Yeah, just got back to school after Canadian Thanksgiving. Now I have six long weeks until the American variant...

Anyway. Your list of FTR regulars. Who so far would you say is acting the most like their wolf-self? Just looking for any background information I can get here.

[lilrascal]

I have a friend who doesn't know what ISO means. I totally do but my friend would like you to explain it for him.

Isolate a single player to look at their posts. It takes getting used to looking at things this way since the posts are out of context, so linking to the actual post helps.

[Top Tier Tom]

I think JKDS dies more often than not if he posts much on D1, regardless of role.

He is practically incapable of not looking wolfy to me until he has a lot of info to sift through. Even then, I'm usually not convinced.

I know that I always think he's wolfy, so I'm trying to learn from my errors,
but he makes it so hard.

Lawyers! Doing their lawyer things. Making their lawyer cases. Being all good at arguing.
And stuff. And things.

You're saying he's consistently wolfy?

[lilrascal]

Nice, nice. Yeah, just got back to school after Canadian Thanksgiving. Now I have six long weeks until the American variant...

Anyway. Your list of FTR regulars. Who so far would you say is acting the most like their wolf-self? Just looking for any background information I can get here.

BID is pinging me the most. Mostly because he's not looking like his normal villager self.

[Top Tier Tom]

BID is pinging me the most. Mostly because he's not looking like his normal villager self.

Can you give specific context for why that is? He's got Dat t0an, br0

[gabe]

This doesn't seem like normal gabe to me. Also, his logic is LOL bad.

if someone thinks my logic bad, its always because of one of two things. 1) i missed some fact along the way or 2) you missed a fact along the way. the logic holds if my assumptions are right. i might not have explained enough. sometimes i do that hoping/assuming that people will fill in the gaps

the most important stuff of what you quoted is this "i dont like the idea of the poisoner target being public. this costs us all the EV of when both sides poison the same target"

this type of logic helps the village be more +ev going forward. are you helping in the same way? i feel good about my villager status with the village because im helping get us closer to the solution

[lilrascal]

I don't get what bothers you about this

Looking at the interaction, you were mainly just listening to BID about Ong and not listening to what Ong had to say.

Ong appears to be his normal self so far.

[Top Tier Tom]

if someone thinks my logic bad, its always because of one of two things. 1) i missed some fact along the way or 2) you missed a fact along the way. the logic holds if my assumptions are right. i might not have explained enough. sometimes i do that hoping/assuming that people will fill in the gaps

the most important stuff of what you quoted is this "i dont like the idea of the poisoner target being public. this costs us all the EV of when both sides poison the same target"

this type of logic helps the village be more +ev going forward. are you helping in the same way? i feel good about my villager status with the village because im helping get us closer to the solution

I'm finding it increasingly hard to believe that you mean what you say. Are you a shook wolf or something? Your posting is just... lame. This post is lame. The last sentence is just hot garbage. I kinda want to lynch you now

[Beck Novo]

I also want more scrutiny on Beck.

He's asking some probing questions mixed with hi how r u posts. Not sure what to think of his play so far.

What does your gut say? If you think I deserve more scrutiny then I can't disagree, but who better to scrutinize my play than you? Let's hear it.

Also not sure on his music taste. Es un perdedor?

You're a loser, baby.

[Top Tier Tom]

Looking at the interaction, you were mainly just listening to BID about Ong and not listening to what Ong had to say.

Ong appears to be his normal self so far.

Yeah; no. So did you rally look at the interaction or just parts of it? What you're saying here is close to a flat out lie.

[lilrascal]

Can you give specific context for why that is? He's got Dat t0an, br0

Look at my posts in 448 and 452, I covered it there.

[Beck Novo]

Yes. Go here: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...rewolf-village and then click on the post count for the thread you want. A pop-up will appear and then click on the post count for the player you want. It won't be a complete ISO like on MU, but will give you most of the post (depending on size) and ofc a link to the post.

Thanks you.

[Beck Novo]

Thanks you.

Thank*

um yeah

[lilrascal]

Yeah; no. So did you rally look at the interaction or just parts of it? What you're saying here is close to a flat out lie.

I just finished page 3. If there's more then I haven't gotten to it yet.

[Top Tier Tom]

Look at my posts in 448 and 452, I covered it there.

Doesn't tell me much tbh

[Top Tier Tom]

I just finished page 3. If there's more then I haven't gotten to it yet.

Yes, there's more. I am no longer enraged. But I'm thinking Gabe might be a good lynch. People said he's a good villager; he seems like he's struggling to make sense. Doesn't sound sincere at all.

[Beck Novo]

if someone thinks my logic bad, its always because of one of two things. 1) i missed some fact along the way or 2) you missed a fact along the way. the logic holds if my assumptions are right. i might not have explained enough. sometimes i do that hoping/assuming that people will fill in the gaps

the most important stuff of what you quoted is this "i dont like the idea of the poisoner target being public. this costs us all the EV of when both sides poison the same target"

this type of logic helps the village be more +ev going forward. are you helping in the same way? i feel good about my villager status with the village because im helping get us closer to the solution

you say you're a villager so much like you're trying to make yourself believe it

but i don't know if i do

also, fwiw, if while both poisoners are alive, if only one target is announced, s/he is a villager 100% of the time. so i don't understand your second paragraph

[Top Tier Tom]

Lynch gabe

#strugglecity

[Beck Novo]

gabe, we're 400 some odd posts into the game and as far as i can tell all you've really talked about is +/-EV plays regarding the poisoner

what else have you got? give me like a really, really solid read please

[lilrascal]

if someone thinks my logic bad, its always because of one of two things. 1) i missed some fact along the way or 2) you missed a fact along the way. the logic holds if my assumptions are right. i might not have explained enough. sometimes i do that hoping/assuming that people will fill in the gaps

the most important stuff of what you quoted is this "i dont like the idea of the poisoner target being public. this costs us all the EV of when both sides poison the same target"

this type of logic helps the village be more +ev going forward. are you helping in the same way? i feel good about my villager status with the village because im helping get us closer to the solution

The second paragraph makes sense, but I didn't get that from your earlier posts.

The bolded underlined part is just odd posting IMO.

[Beck Novo]

i'm not a gambler but i would bet that 3-4 of our wolves are in the bottom half of the posters

the thread feels extremely pure rn

[lilrascal]

Yes, there's more. I am no longer enraged. But I'm thinking Gabe might be a good lynch. People said he's a good villager; he seems like he's struggling to make sense. Doesn't sound sincere at all.

Ok, then I'll get to it this evening.

[NightGizmo]

if someone thinks my logic bad, its always because of one of two things. 1) i missed some fact along the way or 2) you missed a fact along the way. the logic holds if my assumptions are right. i might not have explained enough. sometimes i do that hoping/assuming that people will fill in the gaps

the most important stuff of what you quoted is this "i dont like the idea of the poisoner target being public. this costs us all the EV of when both sides poison the same target"

this type of logic helps the village be more +ev going forward. are you helping in the same way? i feel good about my villager status with the village because im helping get us closer to the solution

I've had time to think about your poisoner ideas:

1. You're right, we shouldn't try to pick someone for the poisoner to pick. That just eliminates information from the village.
2. Your idea that the village poisoner should try to hit the same person as the wolf poisoner is great in some idealistic world where the village poisoner can figure that out, but awful in the real world where he will be poisoning someone that the wolves find a threat. If he doesn't match the wolves then the village is doubly hurt. It's much better for the poisoner to just try to hunt wolves, same as everyone else.

[Top Tier Tom]

i feel good about my villager status with the village because im helping get us closer to the solution

[Beck Novo]

I've had time to think about your poisoner ideas:

1. You're right, we shouldn't try to pick someone for the poisoner to pick. That just eliminates information from the village.
2. Your idea that the village poisoner should try to hit the same person as the wolf poisoner is great in some idealistic world where the village poisoner can figure that out, but awful in the real world where he will be poisoning someone that the wolves find a threat. If he doesn't match the wolves then the village is doubly hurt. It's much better for the poisoner to just try to hunt wolves, same as everyone else.

IMO, the Poisoner should target slankers so we can force participation.

But that's just me.

[Beck Novo]

There is an even more optimal strategy for the wolves to use when considering who to poison, but I don't believe it needs to be discussed here.

[Beck Novo]

@NightGizmo, did you notice anything else from gabe's post (or any of his posts, honestly) beyond his opinion on optimal Poisoner play?

[bigred]

Do they announce who is poisoned or weather someone was poisoned? Could see some weird outing scenarios.

[NightGizmo]

@NightGizmo, did you notice anything else from gabe's post (or any of his posts, honestly) beyond his opinion on optimal Poisoner play?

No, except that his post count is a lot lower than I expected.

[Beck Novo]

Do they announce who is poisoned or weather someone was poisoned? Could see some weird outing scenarios.

Apparently yes, baudib will announce it publicly.

[NightGizmo]

Do they announce who is poisoned or weather someone was poisoned? Could see some weird outing scenarios.

You're clearly watching the thread... Have anything else to add besides your fluff posts?

[Beck Novo]

No, except that his post count is a lot lower than I expected.

So what would you infer from this?

[NightGizmo]

So what would you infer from this?

It either means wolf or disinterested villager. Based on the few games I had in the past with Gabe, I've never seen him be disinterested even as a vanilla villager. So if his post count remains low, it's a huge red flag.

[NightGizmo]

Gabe has given a good reason for why his post count is low so far, but that excuse came with an expiration (after football tonight). So we should know before the end of Day 1 (assuming we come close to the deadline) if he gets more active.

[Top Tier Tom]

NightGizmo, do you consider yourself to be a reserved player overall?

[NightGizmo]

NightGizmo, do you consider yourself to be a reserved player overall?

Yup. I'm reserved in general on the Internet. All of my WW experience is on FTR, if you want to do any outside research.

[Beck Novo]

lol chill, I misread something someone said about you.



Anyway by her admission she doesn't care and unless I find something more compelling than a kami lynch before night, I'm down for that. Should be fun to analyze after the fact.

lynch kami


(mmm, is your name tom?)

This feels like this is coming from a wolf, too.

Like, place an extremely easy vote with outdated reasoning. Say you'll leave your vote until you find something more compelling, but do nothing to seek something more compelling. Then dip out.

LAME.

[Top Tier Tom]

I'll +1 that, Beck

Beck Makes Good Points (TM)

[Beck Novo]

BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE

I feel pretty confident that Kami is a villager.

You say this, aubrey, and conclude that there is definitely a wolf amongst Tom, Ong, Wuf, Gizmo, and BID. Yet when Kami refutes a minute assumption of yours regarding her experience, you default and vote for her? Was that all you needed to change your mind?

Do you have any more thoughts regarding the five players mentioned above?

[lilrascal]

I've caught up on the thread. Here's where I stand with my reads for now:

Villa Leans
Beck
Ong
Luco
MMM
TTT

NightGizmo

Neutral
Wufwugy
Kami
JKDS
Hifi

BATM
SMF

No read - Need more posting
aubreymcfate
Bigred
Boog
Dsaxton
ShipItUp

Wolf Leans
rilla
BID
gabe

[HiFi]

Shipitup might be a wolf

[lilrascal]

lynch gabe

I was leaning more towards voting for BID, but gabe's reentry into the thread this evening made it worse IMO.

[gabe]

I'm finding it increasingly hard to believe that you mean what you say. Are you a shook wolf or something? Your posting is just... lame. This post is lame. The last sentence is just hot garbage. I kinda want to lynch you now

i mean it all...

how is the last sentence garbage? the way i spot villagers is finding those who contribute to the village's solution. i feel like some players lose sight of this so i thought it was worth spelling out. can we just talk about me on day 2...

theres no way we can lynch bigred any time soon. tons of other places to poke in before addressing him. that long post he made is kind of a big deal

[lilrascal]

I'll +1 that, Beck

Beck Makes Good Points (TM)

I agree.

[gabe]

lynch gabe

I was leaning more towards voting for BID, but gabe's reentry into the thread this evening made it worse IMO.

please tell me why my logic was bad earlier

i dont like the case against me. feels like it could only be conjured in a wolf brain

[Top Tier Tom]

i mean it all...

how is the last sentence garbage? the way i spot villagers is finding those who contribute to the village's solution. i feel like some players lose sight of this so i thought it was worth spelling out. can we just talk about me on day 2...

theres no way we can lynch bigred any time soon. tons of other places to poke in before addressing him. that long post he made is kind of a big deal

I really cannot follow what you're saying most of the time. Where do you want to "poke in"?

[lilrascal]

please tell me why my logic was bad earlier

i dont like the case against me. feels like it could only be conjured in a wolf brain

You haven't done anything to help the village. You've really only talked some mechanics about the poisoner.

[NightGizmo]

theres no way we can lynch bigred any time soon. tons of other places to poke in before addressing him. that long post he made is kind of a big deal

I disagree about that post being a big deal. It's mostly fluff with a lot of "____ is acting like himself, so I don't know" or "____ posted a lot, we'll see". There is no real analysis, it's very wishy-washy.

[gabe]

i know we have lots of people that have not played with me much, if at all. but i have gotten a few endorsements already saying that i'm not a werewolf fish

i am smart enough, that if i were a wolf, i would not be posting such "out there" stuff. it wouldnt make sense to propose an idea for us to toss around, if the idea was insane and likely to draw attention to me. *it wouldnt make sense as a wolf

ALSO i think i added something to the game with what i added. the village should have a greater chance to win if they keep in mind what i said. that is intrinsically VILLAGERY

[Top Tier Tom]

i know we have lots of people that have not played with me much, if at all. but i have gotten a few endorsements already saying that i'm not a werewolf fish

i am smart enough, that if i were a wolf, i would not be posting such "out there" stuff. it wouldnt make sense to propose an idea for us to toss around, if the idea was insane and likely to draw attention to me. *it wouldnt make sense as a wolf

ALSO i think i added something to the game with what i added. the village should have a greater chance to win if they keep in mind what i said. that is intrinsically VILLAGERY

Simple question: which two players would you suggest we lynch today

[MadMojoMonkey]

You're saying he's consistently wolfy?

He = JKDS

From my POV, yeah. I've gone head to head with him as V/V more than once.

There are a lot of ways to be wolfy, but I tend to find his early-game arguments to sound contrived. By mid-game, he's got my monkey senses all twitchy and I find it hard to believe him. Then he, rightly, turns on me and it all goes downhill.

I've said all this before, and not even recently... so I'm clearly not learning to read JKDS.

[lilrascal]

i know we have lots of people that have not played with me much, if at all. but i have gotten a few endorsements already saying that i'm not a werewolf fish

i am smart enough, that if i were a wolf, i would not be posting such "out there" stuff. it wouldnt make sense to propose an idea for us to toss around, if the idea was insane and likely to draw attention to me. *it wouldnt make sense as a wolf

ALSO i think i added something to the game with what i added. the village should have a greater chance to win if they keep in mind what i said. that is intrinsically VILLAGERY

If you want to convince me of your "villageryness", then tell me who your top 3 villagers and top 3 wolf suspects are and why.

[gabe]

I really cannot follow what you're saying most of the time. Where do you want to "poke in"?

thanks for being honest. maybe its hard to follow because its just stream of conscious. i'm not really planning what i say, i just say it. more villagy points for me

You haven't done anything to help the village. You've really only talked some mechanics about the poisoner.

i stated my reads on a few people and helped guide a couple reads. i have talked about poison mechanics but mostly because people engaged me on this topic. i think

I disagree about that post being a big deal. It's mostly fluff with a lot of "____ is acting like himself, so I don't know" or "____ posted a lot, we'll see". There is no real analysis, it's very wishy-washy.

i agree his post is very wishy washy. but recently bigred pretty much didnt show up for some games and siad he was quitting FTR. so i havent seen a nice attempt by bigred in such a long time that i thought that post was kind of a big deal. its not even necessarily villagery but im just not going to vote for him on day 1

[Top Tier Tom]

lol

I am truly stumped by gabe.

Maybe one of the weirdest posters I've ever seen

Is he always like this? Is he on drugs? What's happening

[baudib]

I love "Arrow" even though it's all kinds of ridiculous.

via Imgflip Meme Maker

PROSNOST

[lilrascal]

lol

I am truly stumped by gabe.

Maybe one of the weirdest posters I've ever seen

Is he always like this? Is he on drugs? What's happening

No, he's not normally like this.

[gabe]

Simple question: which two players would you suggest we lynch today

If you want to convince me of your "villageryness", then tell me who your top 3 villagers and top 3 wolf suspects are and why.

i hear you both loud and clear. its time to hunt. i cant really post something i would feel comfortable defending without some intense read through, which is what im doing now and tonight. im online now for a while.

i also want to add that i think i have a good way to defend myself if the heat on me gets really strong.

would a wolf say that^ sentence?

[Top Tier Tom]

gabe are you on drugs

If so which drugs

[lilrascal]

i hear you both loud and clear. its time to hunt. i cant really post something i would feel comfortable defending without some intense read through, which is what im doing now and tonight. im online now for a while.

i also want to add that i think i have a good way to defend myself if the heat on me gets really strong.

would a wolf say that^ sentence?

Yes, I've heard it said many times by wolves when they make a fake claim.

[gabe]

lol

I am truly stumped by gabe.

Maybe one of the weirdest posters I've ever seen

Is he always like this? Is he on drugs? What's happening

i dont know what im always like, i am on drugs a fair portion of the time im cruising the internet, and we are playing werewolf. i will say that i have a hard time imagining you being a wolf with your line of questioning. however i dont get the same vibe from lil rascal's. his accusations seem more empty than yours, because you are new and hes been around

[Top Tier Tom]

Alright well it's obvious that gabe is softing being a PR and I had him pegged as a wolf or a PR for a while now

It doesn't explain the ridiculous tone but I'm willing to vote elsewhere

How about that cat avatar person?