NL5-Unsuccessful resteal situation

[OngBonga]

I'm not brilliant with ev calculations, I tend to make mistakes when I break stuff down properly, I'll let someone else analyse your method. I tend to make reasonably accurate estimates, I basically take advantage of my natural gift for maths, while lazily refusing to put the effort in to make the most of that gift.

I think shoving flop is -ev because...

We have a nut flush draw vs KK+ and have no fold equity at all (in my opinion, of course). We're going to make the nuts around 1 in 3 times, while hitting a winning ace very occasionally, although I would be guessing if I tried to quantify how often an ace is good for us. It's not often enough for it to make a huge difference to our equity, that I'm happy with. With 33% equity, the dead money pre flop would need to match (or be more than) our remaining stack for this to be close. But our stack is bigger.

If we have fold equity, things change a lot. When he cbets, that money (or at least some of it) can be counted as dead money. But only if he has hands he folds. If he calls 100% of the time, then his cbet isn't dead money, we can't steal any of it and we still need to match it. But I don't think we do have fold equity. And I don't think even having AKs in his range helps us enough, especially since we block spades, so there's only 3 combos. I think we need him to have AKo, and we need him to fold it more often than not. I do think it's reasonable that we can get AKo to fold, but certainly we should make a note if he calls it.

I'm not sure if my method is accurate, which is why I wouldn't fold the flop. I think shoving when he always calls is -ev, but it doesn't take much for me to be wrong about to tip the balance. I might be wrong that he always calls.

[griffey24]

I'm not brilliant with ev calculations, I tend to make mistakes when I break stuff down properly, I'll let someone else analyse your method. I tend to make reasonably accurate estimates, I basically take advantage of my natural gift for maths, while lazily refusing to put the effort in to make the most of that gift.

I think shoving flop is -ev because...

We have a nut flush draw vs KK+ and have no fold equity at all (in my opinion, of course). We're going to make the nuts around 1 in 3 times, while hitting a winning ace very occasionally, although I would be guessing if I tried to quantify how often an ace is good for us. It's not often enough for it to make a huge difference to our equity, that I'm happy with. With 33% equity, the dead money pre flop would need to match (or be more than) our remaining stack for this to be close. But our stack is bigger.

If we have fold equity, things change a lot. When he cbets, that money (or at least some of it) can be counted as dead money. But only if he has hands he folds. If he calls 100% of the time, then his cbet isn't dead money, we can't steal any of it and we still need to match it. But I don't think we do have fold equity. And I don't think even having AKs in his range helps us enough, especially since we block spades, so there's only 3 combos. I think we need him to have AKo, and we need him to fold it more often than not. I do think it's reasonable that we can get AKo to fold, but certainly we should make a note if he calls it.

I'm not sure if my method is accurate, which is why I wouldn't fold the flop. I think shoving when he always calls is -ev, but it doesn't take much for me to be wrong about to tip the balance. I might be wrong that he always calls.

I mean this all comes down to our reads:

If we're flatting the 4b OOP, this implies that we think he's 4b wide/aggro (otherwise we should be folding pre to 4b). If we think he 4b wide/aggro then he presumably has a lot of Ax and other nonsense. If this is true, then we have fold equity on flop and should be shoving.

If we don't have fold equity his range is too tight. If his range is too tight we should be folding pre and not getting into this situation in the first place.

[placebo]

This discusion is very eye opening for me. Thak you guys

I mean this all comes down to our reads:
If we're flatting the 4b OOP, this implies that we think he's 4b wide/aggro (otherwise we should be folding pre to 4b). If we think he 4b wide/aggro then he presumably has a lot of Ax and other nonsense. If this is true, then we have fold equity on flop and should be shoving.

If we don't have fold equity his range is too tight. If his range is too tight we should be folding pre and not getting into this situation in the first place.

I suspected that Villains has wider range than KK+ when he 4-bets me(because it is stealing situation and it is NL5 so Villain could have {JJ+ AK}, simply because the average player is not very much educated, but not wide enough, that we could justify my call OOP due to the low SPR - I did't notice that during the play. So my preflop play I think is a massive mistake. If it comes to my flop play it is debatable. It all depends on Villains range of course. But I am glad about my play if the Villain has (JJ+ AKo). The other way shove isn profitable as you guys say.

What about the other line to play this on the flop. What about x/c OTF. We are getting 2.6:1 pot odds and we have 4.5:1 to hit our nutflush on the turn. Do we have any IO here? Do you think Villain puts the rest of his stack with overpairs ?