**** Elections thread *****

[Poopadoop]

Me.

That's what I thought.

[wufwugy]

That's what I thought.

How about this, according to Bloomberg's tracking, one month out, Leave 42%, Remain 48%. Final results Leave (IIRC) 52%, Remain 48.

So, if I'd like, I could say way more than 2:1

[Poopadoop]

How about this, according to Bloomberg's tracking, one month out, Leave 42%, Remain 48%. Final results Leave (IIRC) 52%, Remain 48.

So, if I'd like, I could say way more than 2:1

The day before the vote, it was Remain up by 2%. Leave won by 2%. That there was some error in the polling is one explanation. There could also have been a greater number of undecideds that went Leave on the last day. We'll never know. But saying it was 2:1 or 1.8:1 or 3:1 has no credence since we don't know how much the polling numbers were off in the first place.

[wufwugy]

The day before the vote, it was Remain up by 2%. Leave won by 2%. That there was some error in the polling is one explanation. There could also have been a greater number of undecideds that went Leave on the last day. We'll never know. But saying it was 2:1 or 1.8:1 or 3:1 has no credence since we don't know how much the polling numbers were off in the first place.

Origin point comparison is sorta arbitrary. Generally when we say "undecideds broke at such n such rate" it is referring to an origin before the eventual final results consolidated and when the undecided vote began to decrease. For Brexit, the one month out mark is the standard. Granted, that origin shows the lowest effect. Five months out would show a much bigger effect.

[Poopadoop]

Origin point comparison is sorta arbitrary. Generally when we say "undecideds broke at such n such rate" it is referring to an origin before the eventual final results consolidated and when the undecided vote began to decrease. For Brexit, the one month out mark is the standard. Granted, that origin shows the lowest effect. Five months out would show a much bigger effect.

I follow you. But you can't assume that all the undecideds deciding must have changed things, there would also likely have been a large number of Remain people switching to Leave. And for that matter, there was also some number (much smaller obv.) of Leave people switching to Remain. The polls and final results can't tell you which people moved from one of those three camps to another, only where they ended up. And that's complicated by the fact the polls are only estimates in the first place.