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 Originally Posted by banana
Why? His pre-flop action suggests all kinds of Kx holdings in his range.
Disclaimer - sample size of exactly one hand.
Generally, I'm not seeing top pair cbet oop under half pot. This *seems* like a small bet. If it's not (we should be making notes if this is standard cbet for him) then I can keep Kx in his range. However, assuming this is small, then I feel like it's more likely to be a weak cbet with stuff that missed.
Pre flop his range has millions of Kx. We're no longer pre flop, he has since made a bet. Ranges change.
Disagree. Maybe I'm just conflating what I would do with what I expect my opponents to do, but I think betting a K on the turn would be horri-bad here.
Perhaps. But betting under half pot on flop with a king is horri-bad. What calls this bet but folds to a slightly bigger bet? This bet of his gets less value than a larger bet. Ergo, it's not a value bet, or villain is bad at value betting.
First of all, do people really raise these hands to 3x from UTG when effective stacks are 50BB?
Yes.
Second, you're contradicting yourself severely here. You're saying he's likely to fold to a bet, but then you're also saying we could get paid off by 3rd pair if we catch 2nd pair and decide to turn it into a bluff.
I was just throwing more points that increase our equity, albeit slightly. He probably folds turn because he has junk... perhaps ace high junk that beats us. He also might have second pair hands that might fold (bonus) or might not (oh well, we have plenty of outs).
I have zero raises in my range here. Raising this flop is bad with every hand I can imagine getting here with. QJ/JT are the only viable hands, which means my raising range is entirely semi-bluffs. Not balanced. Not raising.
If we're going to bluff like you suggest, then why wait until the river?
I'm not bluffing river. I'm bluffing turn if he checks, because such a line is how I'm playing Kx 44/99. Balanced.
If I get to river with queen high, I give up because he called the turn and looks a lot more like Kx than I thought after he bet the flop.
I like this play ALOT better if we had a backdoor flush draw, and/or preferably an overcard. Like if the flop was KT4 instead of K94 and we had AJ or AQ suited. That way we could jam if we pick up equity on the turn.
Agree with this, however, I'm picking my floating spots based more on villain's range than my own hand. I'd rather have a little more equity, but I'm putting faith in my read that villain's cbet was weak.
This is why I hate hate hate hate unsuited hands. This is an auto-fold for me pre-flop.
Yes. As standard, I'd fold this unsuited, call it suited.
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