Trump Is Reality TV, Mueller Is The Wire

[wufwugy]

How does "running good" work? How that that analogy from poker work in the real word of business?

In poker, as you point out, there are millions of hands over a career. Well, how many "decisions" does a business owner face in his career? It's like you're saying a business is a single game of poker. It's not. It's a career.

So "running good" doesn't really cut it except for the most ludicrously lucky people, of which, granted, Trump could be one of. But the probability is ludicrously low.

I probably agree. Lifetime business success across many fields is probably dynamic enough that ain't nobody who makes it runs good.

If we say "what does it take to become a billionaire?" or "what does it take to become the president?", those distributions are probably fat-tailed. But the situation we're dealing with is far more dynamic and complex than those questions.

[boost]

I probably agree. Lifetime business success across many fields is probably dynamic enough that ain't nobody who makes it runs good.

If we say "what does it take to become a billionaire?" or "what does it take to become the president?", those distributions are probably fat-tailed. But the situation we're dealing with is far more dynamic and complex than those questions.

I actually think sustained run good is more likely in business than poker. The difference in business is that at a certain point you have a self replenishing bankroll through diversification into passive income streams. Compounding passive income streams is the fact that if you are really big enough, you actually can become too big to fail for your creditors.

As for success across multiple industries-- One, I'd point to the failures across multiple industries, but two, and more importantly, apparent success in one industry is likely to greatly decrease the barriers of entry into other industries. The one industry I feel confident in saying Trump has been successful is that of branding, and it's also the industry whose goods have the most intangible and untethered valuations. On top of that, a brand who's branding is that of business success is going to have the most ease slipping in and out of industries.